Twister 😱 ✡️🌻 😱 🚀🚢 🗳️

War and Debt:  With bombs and missiles not doing the job, Trump has pivoted to threatening to destroy Iran’s economy, by taking “the MOST CRUSHING ECONOMIC OPERATION EVER TAKEN AGAINST ANY COUNTRY.”  His Truth Social post is being echoed by Treasury Secretary Bessent who says that the threatened economic action will begin on Monday which sounds an awful lot like a version of Trump’s “in two weeks.” Bessent, who also said that he doesn’t understand the spike in oil prices and that fewer jobs are okay because we’ve deported so many workers, is either very stupid, really disingenuous or both.  It’s not just oil prices that are spiking; long term Treasury rates are too, they’ve reached levels not seen since 2007.  To quote economist/Wharton professor Mohammed El-Erian who called the rise in Treasury yields “breathtaking,” the rate increase is due to “stubborn” inflation,  government debt ballooning to $40 trillion and fiscal deficits, and the “sting of higher gas and diesel prices due to the war in Iran” combined with the “staggering” growth in borrowing by technology companies and the “diminished appetite” for Treasuries by traditional international purchasers. In layman’s term, Trump’s tax cuts plus war plus the enormous funding requirements to build AI infrastructure plus fewer Treasury buyers equals higher borrowing costs, including mortgage rates.  Remember when Trump said that he’d eliminate the national debt, lower interest rates, get rid of “Biden’s” inflation, and that his Iran war would be over in four to five weeks. Forget about it.    

Peeps: In 2003 Barbra Streisand sued a photographer for sharing an aerial view of her Malibu home. Prior to her lawsuit only a handful of people had downloaded the photo, as a result of her lawsuit it went viral and thus the term Streisand Effect entered the vernacular.  Trump aide Natalie Harp, who one media outlet is now referring to as one of his “peroxide blonds” and who the NY Times’ Maggie Haberman calls his binky is experiencing her Streisand moment, the result of Trump’s minions protesting far too much about the stories concerning her uniquely bizarre behavior as Trump’s current it girl. It’s not clear who has been leaking all the details about Natalie to the press, some have suggested that the source is his peeved outgoing Press Secretary Leavitt, but the leaks are oddly funny, particularly her running alongside Trump’s golf cart and the over the top love notes she gives him not to mention her jumping into the trunk of his SUV and the printer she always carries slung over her shoulder while teetering on her de rigueur nude colored heelers.   Possibly in an effort to push back against all the attention Natalie has been getting, Trump rolled out the infrequently seen Melania yesterday who judging by her comment that she’s heard she was missed, is in on the joke. While Natalie doesn’t appear to be going anywhere, Trump has lost another senior staff member. James Braid who’d served as the director of legislative affairs has joined the other 🐀 🐀 abandoning the ship.  On the subject of ships, the Navy is “considering” changing the USS Doris Miller’s name to the USS Donald Trump.  The ship is the first air force carrier named after a Black soldier, a hero of Pearl Harbor, while Trump is someone who had faux heel spurs.  In other people news, former Congressman Eric Swalwell’s home was searched by the FBI which left with a number of his electrical devices and Democratic Congressman Jimmy Gomez is being investigated for sexual harassment by the House Ethics Committee.  Then there is Lindsey Graham’s sister Darline, the Trump endorsed interim South Carolina Senator.  She flubbed a question about Taiwan during a Tuesday debate with her Republican primary runoff opponent Ralph Norman saying that she wasn’t “informed on national security” because it isn’t her thing. She may know nothing about international affairs, but she certainly knows a lot about Republican priorities because on Wednesday during an appearance on Fox she said her flub didn’t matter because South Carolinians are more concerned about boys playing girls' sports than about tensions between "enemy" China and "friend" Taiwan.

MAHA Not:  Trump has nominated White House advisor Dr Heidi Overton to be the next head of the FDA.  Overton has questioned the safety of “medication abortion,” saying that the FDA was wrong to allow mifepristone to be prescribed by telehealth. An RFK acolyte, she called Trump’s executive order changing the childhood vaccine schedule a “historic action” (historically stupid?) and backs his call to break up the MMR shot. Dead Man Walking Senator Bill Cassidy whose support she’ll need for confirmation has “reservations” about her but then again he had concerns about RFK and about Todd Blanche and ultimately voted to confirm both even though he knew he shouldn’t.  We may be about to see another one of those “we know she’s awful, but Trump wants her” votes with Susan Collins getting an election year pass and Lisa Murkowski walking to the beat of an Alaskan drum.

More 💩:  ABC/Disney is suing the FCC for trying to take away some of its broadcast licenses for failing to adequately kowtow to Trump’s whims.  After a too long stay at sea, the USS Lincoln which Trump said wasn’t at sea long enough is on its way home. Secretary of War/Beer Hegseth insists that all was hunky-dory aboard the ship, but it wasn’t.  It wasn’t just low morale, there really was a supply shortage, the result of Iran’s attacks on the Navy’s storage facilities in the region, something that Hegseth doesn’t want to talk about.  On the election front, assuming we have elections, the Cook Political Report has moved Texas’ and Iowa’s Senate races from Lean Republican to Toss-Up.  They’ve also moved Texas’ Governor race from Solid R to Lean R and Iowa’s from Toss-Up to Lean Democrat.   😊 🤷‍♀️ And maybe in an omen of things to come, there was a tornado on Long Island last night.  

 

 

 

Harps, Heart, and Trunks 😱 ✡️🌻 😱 🚀🚢 🗳️

Quagmire Chronicles:  Remember the sixty-day memorandum of understanding with Iran that was supposed to be the beginning of the end of the Iran war, well forget about it because the MOU has expired.  Trump who continues to insist that the Strait of Hormuz is open even though it isn’t, said on Tuesday that there is no ongoing dialogue with Iran to end the war, and no discussions scheduled and son in law Kushner, Trump’s not so qualified special envoy, reported that Iran is "not showing any interest" in striking a deal that "makes sense" for the United States.  According to the Wall Street Journal, it’s not just that Iran isn’t showing any interest in a deal, they viewed the ceasefire that accompanied the now expired MOU as an opportunity to prepare for a longer war with the Revolutionary Guard using the time to consolidate its control and bolster the regime’s supply of missiles and drones while also tightening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has now threatened to bomb Oman, saying that its independent efforts to cut a deal with Iran to open the Strait is getting in the way of the US making a peace deal. Trump isn’t going to bomb Oman, but his outrageous threat which should but won’t provoke a 25^th Amendment removal, provides further evidence of how much he’s flailing.  His attempt to reignite his love affair with North Korea’s Kim Jung Un is a further admission that his Iran adventure is a festering failure.  He needs to distract with a new shiny object, so what if that object destabilizes South Korea and our Asian allies.  The WSJ reports that Trump is now pushing for his aides to schedule a meeting with Kim Jong Un, to “convince him to abandon his nuclear program” because he’s so good at getting countries to give up their nukes?

The Ballot Box 🗳️:  It turns out that very few Alaskan voters found the presence of an extra Dan Sullivan on their ballot confusing.  The “faux” Dan received only 2% of the votes, while the “real” one, incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, received 43%, coming in second to Democrat Mary Peltola who received 48% of the vote.  Incumbent Dan and Peltola will advance to the November election which is likely to be close with Peltola standing a chance of picking up a Senate seat for the Democrats, maybe.  In Florida, place saver incumbent Republican Senator Ashley Moody who Governor DeSantis had appointed as Marco Rubio’s interim replacement easily won her primary, She’ll face off against State Representative Angie Nixon who easily beat Alexander Vindman.  Much is being made of Nixon’s victory because she’s a “progressive” who recently changed her affiliation from Democrat to Democratic Socialist.  However, the odds of her beating Republican Moody in November aren’t great and her “socialist” affiliation probably won’t help her in Florida. The November Governor’s race in Florida might be much closer.  MAGA Congressman Byron Donalds easily won the Republican primary but failed to get 50% of the vote despite Trump’s endorsement.  With 61% of the Democratic vote, David Jolly the former Republican who is now a moderate Democrat, cruised to victory in his primary. Though Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in Florida since they won the Commissioner of Agriculture seat in 2018, Jolly stands a chance of beating Donalds in the fall partly because Donalds is a divisive candidate but also because it’s not clear that some reliably red voters, particularly those in the Panhandle area will show up for a Black candidate and Donalds is Black. Continuing with the racial theme there was lots of noise about Democrat Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a victim of Republican redistricting, having the nerve to run in the majority Black district she ran in, but the long-term Congresswoman ran there anyway, and won and is expected to win again in November. To be clear, the Congressional Black Caucus doesn’t oppose her politics, she’s long been a reliable ally, it’s just that they’re frustrated by how many of their members have been gerrymandered out of their seats.  The District’s prior representative Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick had earlier resigned as the result of a scandal. Despite being challenged by an anti-Israel Democratic Socialist, incumbent Jared Moskowitz won his race too.  Moskowitz’s November race will be a tough one since his new South Florida district has been gerrymandered to advantage Republicans.  On the anti-Semitic front, much to the relief of the Republican party, Nazi loving, pro-Hitler candidate Dan Bilzerian lost his primary, that’s a good thing, but not so good is that the party’s victor in his race is incumbent Randy Fine, an extreme Islamophobe.  Despite being endorsed by Trump, embattled incumbent Cory Mills lost his reelection bid.  That’s good news for those who believe that men who beat up the women in their lives shouldn’t be in Congress,  

More 💩:  Georgia Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff who is up for reelection and doing remarkably well according to the polls, for what that is worth and in his case his 7 points lead over Republican Mike Collins is likely worth a lot.  His polling position is particularly notable since his seat was supposed to be an easy pick-up for Republicans.  Ossoff, who is really good at staying on message, is living rent free in Trump’s head.  Quite a few of his Trump slamming speeches have gone viral in a good way, and this week he went where few have been willing to go, mocking the “draft dodging, crook” Trump for “only wanting to build his ballroom and travel with Natalie.” The Natalie in question is Natalie Harp, the 35- year-old Ivanka clone who previously was best known for being Trump’s human printer. Harp was one of those who Trump took on his decoy plane when he snuck out of Turkey. She is so attached to Trump that Chief of Staff Susie Wiles became concerned about the adoring ❤️ notes she shares with him. Reports are that staying close by is so important to Harp, and presumably Trump, that she sleeps in the women’s locker room when he’s at his Bedminster club, and once jumped into and rode in the trunk of his SUV when there was no room for her inside the vehicle. While Harp isn’t going anywhere, another woman, Emily Underwood who as top deputy to Stephen Miller was a senior policy strategist, is exiting.  Rats 🐀 leaving the ship. Money is leaving the ship too. SCOTUS refused to hear Trump’s last ditch bid to overturn the $5 million, now $5.6 million awarded to E Jean Caroll meaning the money is finally hers.  Trump is still appealing the much larger $83 million that was awarded to her after he continued to trash her.  Lastly, count yourself smart and a bit richer if you are long Moderna stock.  This morning the company announced that it and Merck’s mRNA shot for melanoma showed positive results in a late-stage trial. Further evidence that the mRNA technology that the RFK crowd likes to slam is a good thing.

 

 
Trump Bank 😱 ✡️🌻 😱 🚀🚢

Multi-Dimensional Chess?  There is no progress to report on the Iran war front; the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly blocked and Trump says that after he gets things straightened out he plans to declare the Strait a US territory, though not one with US citizenship rights. Don’t count on Trump straightening things out or the Strait ever becoming a US territory.  In other Middle East news, son-in-law Jared met with Hamas representatives in Egypt where he reportedly “demanded” that they “disarm and relinquish governance to unlock corresponding Israeli steps.” He plans to take the same message to Israel’s Netanyahu in an effort to get Trump’s Board of Peace “peace” plan back on track. Good luck with that too. There was some other international news over the weekend.  Over Truth Social, presumably with early access provided to the ten or so institutions who are now paying between $60,000 and $100,000 monthly for an early look at Trump’s twisted but sometimes market moving musings, the Orange one announced that he has instructed his man at the Pentagon, War and Beer Pete, to reduce joint military exercises with South Korea. Those routine annual joint exercises began last week so Trump’s message was a bit late and also quite bizarre, or as the NY Times put it “convoluted.”  Trump justified his decision, by noting that South Korea didn’t deserve our participation since they had failed to “join us in the Denuclearization of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”  He also complimented his sometime BFF, the nuclear Kim Jong Un, for being “unthreatening and respectful” while he has been president saying that his relationship with North Korea was great while his relationship with long-time ally South Korea was not. The South Korea statement combined with the repositioning of US air force carriers from Asia to the Middle East kind of clears the way for China to do whatever it wants to do in Asia and what it wants to do is occupy Taiwan where over 60 percent of all global semiconductors and roughly 90 percent of the world's most advanced, high-performance computer chips are manufactured.  What could possibly go wrong?  As to Trump’s Truth Social providing early peaks at his musings to paid investors, that’s not Kosher but then again who is going to stop him.  Certainly not his SEC or his DOJ.  New Attorney General Todd Blanche refused to say that he would act independently of the White House during a weekend interview.  Credit goes to Blanche for telling the truth, at least about that, because only the delusional believe that he’ll put the interests of the country and democracy over Trump’s demands. 

Kleptomania:  On the kleptocracy front, late last week the Trump family’s flagship crypto venture’s trust company World Liberty Financial received preliminary conditional approval from Trump’s Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to become a bank. Upon final approval, World Liberty Trust will operate as a federally chartered national trust bank.  The White House asserts that since neither Trump nor his family has ever engaged or will ever engage in conflicts of interest unlike that really corrupt guy Joe and his son Hunter, we shouldn’t be worried about them doing anything wrong, especially anything that could require a bank bailout or contribute to financial system instability. If that sounds hyperbolic consider what Trump did to his casino businesses, the closest comparison to his opaque crypto shenanigans, while you are out searching for a Trump steak sandwich and some Trump vodka to take with you as you fly on Trump airlines to your class at Trump University.   Notably Trump made $1.4 billion from his crypto related ventures last.  Anyway, Trump has far more important things on his mind, like getting the Supreme Court to unfreeze his ballroom construction project, the one he is now calling a critical military installation largely because military projects don’t have to jump through approval hoops the way that projects at the White House are supposed to.      

Other 💩:  We’ve entered the rats are leaving the ship stage of Trump’s term.  While Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s departure received lots of attention last week, she wasn’t the only notable departure from Trump’s team.   White House deputy national security adviser Andy Baker who has been closely involved in Trump’s foreign policy decisions and was part of the delegation that conducted the first in person talks with Iran in Pakistan earlier this year is exiting. He plans to join Robert O’Brien, who served as Trump’s national security adviser in the private sector.  If it feels like primary season is endless, it’s because it is.  Three more states, Florida, Wyoming, and Alaska have primaries this week.  Florida which was recently redistricted to favor Republicans is likely to get the most attention.  Democrats are competing with each other for the few remaining blue seats. A handful of Republicans, including the Trump endorsed and likely to prevail Byron Donalds are competing to run for Governor to replace the termed-out Ron DeSantis.  On the Democratic side former Republican Congressman David Jolly, now a moderate Democrat, is expected to win his primary, likely facing off against Donalds in November.  The primary also includes a race to fill the Senate seat vacated by Marco Rubio.  The leading Republican candidate is Ashley Moody who is currently serving as Florida’s interim Senator.  On the Democratic side, the race is between retired Army Lt Col Alexander Vindman who rose to fame during Trump’s first impeachment trial and Jacksonville’s Angie Nixon, this race’s designated progressive.  Alaska’s primary is somewhat messy and also fun to watch, at least fun for those not running.  The combined party Senate race includes former Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola who actually has a chance of maybe winning in November and two Dan Sullivans, incumbent Dan S and spoiler Dan J.  The two Dan Sullivan thing has Trump freaking out, posting about Democratic trickery. The combined party Governor race includes seventeen candidates.  The top four finishers in each race, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to the November election where the winner will be chosen by a ranked choice process.  To add to fun, the repeal of ranked choice voting and mixed party primaries is also on the November ballot.    

 

Twelve Weeks 😱 ✡️🌻 😱 🚀🚢🚢

Stalemate:  There’s not much to report on the Iran front mostly because nothing has changed.  Trump continues to insist that the Strait of Hormuz is open and under US control.  It is not.  Last night on Newsmax, Treasury Secretary Bessent, one of those who Trump left on his decoy Air Force One during the Three Plane Monty plane episode, said that “next week we ​are going to apply measures like have never been seen in ​the history of economic ​isolation on Iran,” whatever that means. Once upon a time Bessent was a respected hedge funder, now he’s just another member of the MAGA cult, mimicking nonsensical Trump talking points. At least Bessent started off with some real credentials, the same can’t be said of War and Beer Secretary Pete Hegseth.  The former weekend Foxie denies that there’s anything wrong on the almost nine months deployed USS Abraham Lincoln air force carrier.  Hegseth claims that the reports of dwindling food supplies, contaminated water, a lack of personal hygiene products, and most critically declining morale are “misrepresented.”  His assertion is refuted by the wife of a sailor whose husband jumped overboard after sending her a series of increasingly desperate emails about his deteriorating mental state, something that he had shared with others aboard the carrier including his superior officers and medical professionals before he jumped.  Hegseth, who’d rather talk about testosterone, wants to write that sailor’s suicide attempt off as an isolated event but reports in military focused publications, including the Stars and Stripes and the Military Times, indicate otherwise. Yesterday, it was announced that a fresh air force carrier is finally being sent to the Middle East to relieve the Lincoln.  That’s good news for those on the Lincoln, but not so good news for military preparedness in other critical parts of the world, including Asia where China is watching closely, chomping at the bit at the thought of being able to move on Taiwan. As to the Three Plane Monty escapade, while Bessent and Secretary of State Rubio appear to have shrugged off being left on the “target” plane, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt may not be as forgiving. On Wednesday, Trump announced that because she’s having trouble balancing motherhood with her position as his lying mouthpiece, Leavitt is quitting to return home to her toddler and her newborn baby. Reports are that Leavitt’s decision may have had little to do with the stress of motherhood and more to do with whatever was being “discussed” during the now viral video of her shouting match with Trump which took place with his human Xerox machine Natalie Harp looking on. One indication that Leavitt’s departure wasn’t expected is that her replacement hasn’t yet been picked. A long list of names are being floated including CNN’s token Trump mouthpiece Scott Jennings, Stephen Miller’s wife Katie, lawyer Alina Habba, on again off again advisor Jason Miller, the extraordinarily rude and kind of hard to look at White House Communication Director Steven Cheung, and a number of other lesser known but attractive women in Trump’s orbit including the aforementioned Xerox girl.

More 💩:  Yesterday, the board of the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts which is now composed of Trump sycophants voted to put his name back on the Center’s walls, this time by etching it into the Center’s stone.  They also want his name permanently affixed to everything within the Center’s walls just in case some future president tries to remove evidence that he ever existed.  In addition, they voted to close the Center for two years for “renovation.” If this sounds hinky, it’s because it is.  In May US District Judge Christopher Cooper ordered the removal of Trump's name from the Center, ruling that adding it violated federal law because only Congress has the authority to change the congressionally designated memorial's name.  Then again, it’s Trump’s world, and the Supreme Court keeps on insisting that he’s a Supreme Deity.  More litigation enroute?  It’s not just the Kennedy Center that Trump is screwing around with, his ambitious plans for Trumpifying the White House and its grounds which includes his massive new ballroom, an underground military bunker, and a new Marine One helipad are estimated to be costing in excess of $900 million.  He’s also asked Congress for an additional $2 billion so that he can expand his imprint on other parts of Washington DC because things like his planned Arc d’Trump and gilding statues and memorials aren’t free, and despite his assertions, are not being covered by contributions.  Washington DC isn’t the only place where the Trump administration is overspending on our dime. Before she was ousted former Homeland Secretary Kristi Noem spent $464 million on a fleet of used and luxury planes.  The planes which were purchased via a no-bid contract are now mostly laying idle, because Homeland lacks the pilots to fly them and the mechanics to maintain them.  New Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin wants everyone to know that he had nothing to do with the purchase, Noem of course disputes his claim, saying that since most of the planes were delivered after she was ousted, the waste is on him.  While Mullin isn’t responsible for purchasing the planes, he is responsible for DHS ordering $20 million of electric shock gloves for ICE officers to wear while rounding up migrants.  What could possibly go wrong? The NY Times reports that after Alex Pretti was killed in Minneapolis, federal authorities opened investigations into left wing groups rather than the border patrol guy whose actions led to Pretti’s death.  Imagine what they’ll do after their new electrified gloves shock a few people to death?   

Corrupt 💩: In March 2025, the Trump Organization and Eric Trump sued Capitol One claiming that the bank had unlawfully "de-banked" roughly 385 Trump related accounts for political reasons.  In response, Capital One told the court that while it had closed over 300 Trump related accounts in 2021, the closures were the result of an internal anti-money laundering compliance review rather than motivated by politics. That’s not what the Trump’s wanted to hear in court which probably explains why his administration is rolling back major anti-money laundering and corporate transparency requirements originally enacted under the 2021 Corporate Transparency Act to prevent criminals from hiding illicit funds in anonymous shell companies. Not only is Trump rolling back the reporting rules, but he’s also ordering that all records collected as a result of the bill be destroyed.  Ironically, Marco Rubio was the sponsor of the Transparency Act. We won’t know if the polls are correct until after the midterms which take place in twelve weeks take place, assuming they take place at all or take place without federal interference, but the DOJ under Trump’s newly confirmed Attorney General/personal lawyer Todd Blanche is already taking steps to shelter Trump from the Congressional oversight that will swamp him if the Democrats get control of the House.  The DOJ has issued a non-binding memo stating that Trump can assert executive privilege to shield private advisers outside the federal government from congressional and legal investigations.  That would be unprecedented but then again Trump is king, isn’t that what SCOTUS keeps telling us.    

 

 

Three Plane Monty 😱 ✡️🌻 😱 🚀🚢 🗳️

✈️✈️ ✈️ :  If you had Trump sneaking via a catering cart on to a back-up to the Air Force One that was itself the back-up to his increasingly costly “free” Qatari One plane while leaving last month’s NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey on your bingo card you’ve won this week’s Trump 💩show award.  If you had him leaving Secretary of State Rubio, junior Goebbels Stephen Miller and the press corps on what is now being referred to as the decoy plane but taking Secretary of War and Beer and blonde aide de jure Natalie Harp with him, you get a Sharpie signed miniature gold toilet bowl too.  The three card Monty plane shenanigans took place after the Secret Service learned that the Iranians were closely tracking all his moves in Ankara, allegedly planning to shoot him out of the sky with a shoulder fired missile. To be fair to Trump, not that he’s been all that fair to the rest of us, he’s not the first president who to abandon Air Force One for a “safer” plane, but he is the first one to have done so without alerting his traveling squad that he was leaving them as sitting ducks.  Trump endangering the lives of others with his plane shift is a fitting counterpart to his Vaccine Executive Order, only the vaccine order, unlike the plane game will endanger far more people, it’s likely to result in the sickness and deaths of thousands upon thousands of children.  On Tuesday, with Secretary of Health and Brain Worms RFK by his side Trump, who like RFK has absolutely no medical training though unlike RFK he probably didn’t inject heroin during his college days, issued an Executive Order calling for children to get fewer routine vaccines.  Among the shots that he’s decided children should no longer routinely get are the ones for flu, hepatitis B and A, Rotavirus, RSV, Meningococcal disease, and COVID 19. In addition, Trump wants the MMR (Measles, Mumps, and Rubella) vaccine to be split into its three components, so what if single shots for each of those diseases are no longer available in the US and no other countries or the WHO recommend splitting them up. Trump insists that cutting down on vaccines and splitting up the MMR shot so that “soda bottles” of vaccines aren’t delivered into babies’ arms will reduce the incidence of autism even though there is no evidence that the shots or the established vaccine schedule contribute to autism and claims about vaccines being the cause of autism have long been debunked. There are two things that have contributed significantly to the spike in reported cases of autism: one is an expanded definition that has raised the number of children reported as being on the autism spectrum, another is being the child of an older father but that old dad thing would require some introspection on Trump’s part, and that’s not going to happen.  Besides, focusing on shots allows Trump to avoid doing much if anything about all the particularly nasty chemicals that do contribute to all sorts of diseases and syndromes because the manufacturers of those chemicals are among his contributors.  The good news is that Trump’s executive order won’t have as much impact as he wants it to in that most doctors will continue to recommend the shots and their time-tested established schedule.  The bad news is that there are people who listen to him and as a result there will be more vaccine hesitancy and avoidance.  In addition, some children whose parents want them vaccinated but who buy into Trump’s scheduling mishigas or who have doctors who do won’t have the time or financial resources to show up for the multiple appointments that Trump’s “spread out the shots” order requires.

Primary Tuesday:  The biggest takeaway from yesterday’s primaries is that polls, and the prediction betting sites that amplify them are frequently wrong by a lot.  Last week, polls predicted a runaway victory by Michigan’s El Sayed; he did win his primary but barely.  Yesterday, the polls predicted that Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong would win her primary to become the Democrat’s nominee for Governor of Wisconsin by twenty points.  Instead, in what turned out to be a nail biter, Hong appears to have lost to moderate Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, a relief for Wisconsin’s Democrats who feared that Hong, who among other extreme views at least once said that Thanksgiving should be eliminated, would doom the party’s chances of holding on to the Wisconsin Governor’s mansion. Crowley, who had withdrawn from the race but reentered after the leading candidate withdrew due to her campaign’s financial improprieties, won by only 3100 votes in a crowded field, with 39.78% of the vote to Hong’s 30.37%.  He will now face off against Republican Tom Tiffany, an extreme election denier who tried to overturn the 2020 presidential race.  The Cook Political Report is calling the November race a toss-up, not unusual for 50:50 Wisconsin’s statewide elections.  In better news for the progressive wing of the Democratic party, Minnesota’s Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan easily beat the more moderate Congresswoman Angie Craig and will be Minnesota’s Democratic nominee for the Senate race to replace the retiring Tina Smith, the Senator who initially made it to the Senate as the replacement for Al Franken who was an early not so deserving victim of the me too movement more because his humor fell flat than anything else. The good news for Democrats is that it is much easier for a progressive to win a statewide election in Minnesota than in very swingy Wisconsin.  Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar easily won her Democratic Governor primary, but pillow man Mike Lindell who Trump endorsed was trounced, losing to fellow Republican State legislator Lisa Demuth.  Klobuchar is favored to win in November.  Lindsey Graham’s sister Darline who was endorsed by Trump came in first in the South Carolina special primary for her brother’s seat but failed to clinch the nomination since she received only 35% of the vote.  She’ll face off in an end of the month runoff against Freedom Party Congressman Ralph Norman who obtained 25% of the vote.

More 💩:  The pool saga is even more complicated than originally reported, there were a lot more contractors involved none of whom were chosen for their related experience or competency.  Despite how much they screwed up, Trump is still pressing for the Olympic canoeist to be re-indicted because someone other than Trump has to take the blame for the mess he’s created.  Also, it turns out that the US really is running out of advanced missiles, a shortage that Trump partially inherited but then worsened with the Iran war.  Who would have guessed that Trump, who has been busy spending tax dollars on airplanes, gold statues, pools, golf course renovations, opening and shutting INS prisons while hugely bloating the INS, and so on together with his Fox weekend host Hegseth who has been focused on eliminating experienced female and Black officers while proposing testosterone shots but not flu shots for soldiers could possibly have missed that their supply of sophisticated weaponry was running low.  

 

Adios Amigo 😱 ✡️🌻 😱 🚀🚢 🗳️

The Morass:  The WSJ reports that thinking he could get Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Trump was ready to declare victory without achieving a nuclear deal with Iran.  The problem is that Iran’s leadership, smelling his desperation, isn’t cooperating. They see what everyone sees, that the US midterms are looming and that the US economy is suffering so perceiving they have the upper hand they’re seeking billions of US dollars, the removal of all troops in the region, an end to the US naval blockade and in exchange they want to maintain control over and monetize the Strait passage. What a conundrum for Trump, he went to war to get rid of Iran’s nukes and now not only won’t he achieve that goal. but he’s lost a critical transit point. Even for him, the master of deception, that’s hard to spin. Further complicating the regional mess, we’re not the only country with elections looming.  Israel’s, scheduled to take place in October, are right around the corner so it’s no surprise that Trump’s plan for Gaza is falling flat too because fighting for his political life and to stay out of an Israeli jail, Netanyahu isn’t all that interested in making concessions either.  Turns out that like health care and just about everything else Trump has promised to fix in two weeks, achieving Middle East peace is complicated, really complicated.   

Domestic Issues: My suggestion that Todd Blanche’s confirmation was up in the air was wishful thinking because on Friday afternoon Dead Man Walking Senator Bill Cassidy caved.  Stammering during a convoluted speech where he essentially justified voting for Blanche by insisting that everyone would be better off if Trump had a confirmed Attorney General who was competent even if that competence involved facilitating all the evil things he demands, Cassidy threw his support behind Blanche. It was painful to watch Cassidy eat what was left of his soul, especially since, like his vote for RFK’s confirmation, we’re the ones who will suffer.  Then again, suffering, at least for those not related to Trump, is all the vogue these days.  As revealed by Friday’s unexpectedly depressing report, 23,000 people lost their jobs in July.  Unemployment ticked down a smidge but only because hundreds of thousands of people dropped out of the workforce.  It’s not just jobs or the lack thereof, that’s a problem, gas prices are once again increasing due to uncertainty about who will or will not be able to transit through the Strait of Hormuz.  If the “it’s the economy stupid”  mantra holds the midterms might really go against Trump and his Maga-tized Republican party assuming that he doesn’t manage to disrupt the elections, and all indications are that he’ll try.  

Senate Machinations: Now that he’s won his primary Michigan Democrat Abdul El Sayed is trying to shimmy back towards a more middle ground or at the very least to a left of center spot that makes him more acceptable to a wider swath of his state’s voters.  That shift involves him saying that he “loves and reveres the Jewish People,” a variation of Trump pointing to Hershel Walker while saying “I have a Black friend.” It has worked for Trump so it might work for El Sayed 🤷‍♀️.  El Sayed appears to still be standing by the left-wing’s current darling, anti-Semitic streamer Hasan Piker, excusing Piker’s remark that the US deserved 9.11, by more or less saying everyone’s allowed to say stupid things now and then.  The Cook Political Report now has Michigan’s Senate race as a toss-up.  With so much attention on Michigan and on Maine, it would be easy to miss the odd goings on in a few other Senate races.  Democratic candidates aren’t fielding party candidates in Nebraska, Idaho, and South Dakota.  Instead, Democrats are supporting Independent candidates in the hope that they’ll be more electable and if any of them win, that they’ll caucus blue.  In Nebraska, the Independent candidate running against Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts is Dan Osborn; in South Dakota it is Brian Beng running against Republican incumbent Mike Rounds; and in Idaho it is Todd Achilles challenging Republican incumbent Jim Risch.  To date Alani Bankhead, the Democrat running against Republican Kurt Alme in Montana who became the Republican’s candidate when Senator Steve Daines announced he wasn’t running at the last possible minute, has withstood the pressure to pull out.. However, a number of Democrats including former Democratic Senator Jon Tester have endorsed her Independent opponent Seth Bodnar and are calling for her to exit the race by the end of today, the deadline for being taken off of the ballot.  Also, tomorrow is special primary day in South Carolina.  Even with Trump’s endorsement it’s not clear that Lindsey Graham’s sister Darline will be able to get the 50% of the vote needed to secure her candidacy since the Republican field is very crowded so a runoff at the end of the month is highly likely.

More 💩:  Writing that “Each President is a temporary tenant, not the owner, of the White House and its Executive Residence. The President has no … constitutionally assigned authority over that property, which is designed and maintained for the use of all Presidents, current and future, and for the American people. … Whether or not a massive ballroom should be constructed is for Congress to decide and is not a matter for Executive self-help,” The US Appeals court ruled that Trump has to stop work on his east wing ballroom.  Trump is now rebranding the ballroom project calling it a “military center” in the hopes that doing so will help him circumvent the ruling.  He’s also pushing hard to get US Attorney for DC Janine Pirro of Fox and Wine fame to bring back the charges she dropped against the Olympic canoer and the others who according to him deserve to be severely punished for destroying the Reflecting Pond that he and his contractors destroyed. With regard to birthright citizenship, it’s not just babies born to “birth tourists” and people who “hate” America, that he wants to strip citizenship rights from, he wants to take them from children born in US territories like Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, and Guam.  Puerto Ricans were granted citizenship by Congress by legislation passed in 1917; Trump wants that legislation revoked.  Weird how he’s all in on giving citizenship to white South Africans but wants to strip it from Puerto Ricans.  He must really hate Bad Bunny.

 

Blue Bunny Woes 😱 ✡️🌻 😱 🚀🚢 🗳️

Truth or Dare:  Before the Iran war all ships regardless of country of origin could pass through the Strait of Hormuz, no toll required.  That was then, this is now and the Strait is not open to all. Trump keeps saying that a deal with Iran is imminent.  Iran says that that it’s deal which involves our supposed ally Oman would block US and Israeli ships and would include “penalties” of up to 20% of the value of cargo on ships from countries that violate any of their terms. However, Trump still insists that all ships will be able to pass, no fees imposed, or at the very least no fees that aren’t paid to the US. All of these things can’t be true. Trump also insists that reports that the US is running out of key precision long-range and air-defense interceptor missile are fake news. The Washington Post, which Trump renamed yesterday the Washington Compost, says that he and Secretary of War/Beer Hegseth had a shouting match last weekend at Camp David when Trump learned for the first time (!) that the supplies of those missiles really are seriously depleted. Trump and Hegseth are now launching a leaker search to find out who told the Washinton (Com)Post about that verbal battle because tracking leakers will solve the missile shortage problem? Maybe Trump should pay more attention to missile supplies than to the reflecting pool, his Arc d’Trump, his ballroom, his helipad, and his golf course renovations.      

Peeps:  The Senate vote on Todd Blanche’s confirmation as Attorney General hasn’t taken place yet and now it might not because though Dead Men Walking Senators Tillis and Cornyn caved earlier this week, this morning Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski announced that she’s a definite no.  She had hinted yesterday that she was heading in that direction by saying that she’d been hearing from her consituents that they opposed Blanche’s confirmation.  It’s still not clear how Lousiana Dead Man walking Bill Cassidy will vote. He was a surprise guilty vote for Trump’s second impeachment so while he usually caves, he’s been known to cross Trump.  Given that Trump is responsible for him losing his primary, he has every reason to gift Trump with a no vote but then again he provided the key vote for RFK even though he knew he shouldn’t.  Absent a surprise visit to the Senate floor from the ailing Mitch McConnell, Blanche will not be confirmed even if Cassidy caves. McConnell reports that he’s been released from rehab and is now back home recuperating but unable to come back to work yet which could mean he really is recuperating but probably means that he’s decided to spend his final days at home. In either case, it doesn’t appear that he’ll show up for a vote.  Unfortunately Blanche can still remain on as Acting Attorney General.  Blanche’s now unlikely confirmation would require only a majority vote, but getting the full Senate to vote to hold Virus Guru Fauci in contempt of Congress would require 60 votes which explains why the whole Senate isn’t likely to vote on holding him in contempt.  Unfortunately for Fauci,  Kentucky’s Rand Paul really hates him and everything he stands for so instead of recommending a full Senate vote, he had his Homeland Security Committee vote Fauci in contempt. The vote was partisan with all the committee’s Republicans slamming Fauci. It’s absurd that Fauci, a key player in leading us out of COVID who received a commendation for his efforts from Trump, is now being punished for his efforts. Makes you wonder if anyone will answer the call the next time there’s a pandemic or if we’ll just have to rely on RFK, raw milk and Vitamin A.  As to RFK, this week the FDA approved Moderna’s new RNA flu shot, mFLUSIVA, for those over 50, but its not clear that RFK will support the CDC following suit.  The Moderna shot provides stronger protection from the flu because mRNA technology allows for it to be adapted to more closely match the prevailing flu virus than traditional vaccines that need a longer lead time. The good news is that the Senate has finally confirmed Dr Erica Schwartz as the new CDC head, the bad news is that RFK is still her boss and concern remains that much the way he impeded short lived CDC head Susan Monarez’s independence he’ll impact her decisions.

Everyone in Disarray: Most of the focus this week was on the results of the Michigan Senate primary and whether or not the Democrats can “heal” their self-inflicted wounds to keep the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters but Trump suffered a few hits this week too.  The first one took place in Michigan where Thomas Smith, a retired engineer who had dropped out of Michigan’s 8^th District Congressional race a month ago, beat Trump endorsed candidated Amir Hassan even though he’d stopped campaigning and had stopped raising money. The second one took place last night when Trump’s candidate, incumbent Andy Ogles, lost his Tennessee primary to former state agriculture commisioner Charlie Hatcher in one of the state’s newly redrawn districts.  Apparently even with Trump’s endorsement, the new sections of Ogles’ district didn’t buy into Ogles’ extreme anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant views.  The district is still expected to go Republican in November.  In other Tennessee news, Trumpy Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn won her Governor primary which means that she’ll likely be Tennessee’s next governor. 

More 💩:  One thing we know about Trump and his mini Goebbels Steven Miller is that they are both very persistent.  The Supreme Court ruled against the rationale for most of his tariffs, so Trump found another law and reinstituted tariffs.  Yesterday he followed suit with birth right citizenship by issuing two executive orders, one directed at children of “alien enemies” the other intended to clamp down on birth tourism.  Though both provisions may appeal to the anti-immigrant set, it’s not clear that either will withstand court review nor is it clear who gets to define who is an enemy alien or who gets to determine what constitutes birth tourism so cue the lawsuits. Ohio Republican Congressman Max Miller/former Trump aide is still in Congress running for reelection but the drip of accusations against him continues.  Yesterday’s news concerned his daughter’s blue bunny.  The accusation, backed up by some very petty emails, is that Miller has been holding his daughter’s blue bunny hostage, refusing to turn it over during custody exchanges.  He may or may not be guilty of spouse and child abuse, he may or may not be an ecstasy user, but holding the soothing toy back, that’s just mean.  As of today, for “only” $100,000 per month you can subscribe to Trump’s market moving Truth Social posts, getting to see them before the general public because in addition to all his other crimes and misdeamonors, Trump is all in on insider trading and who is going to stop him. No worries though, because yesterday South Carolina Republican Senator Tim Scott said that Trump is “the paragon of ethics.” And add New Jersey to the list of states that have had their water systems attacked by what are to believed to be Iran hackers, by everyone but Trump who probably blames NJ’s Governor or maybe even Minnesota’s Governor.