Weird Science 😱 ✡️🌻😱 💣🚀🚢 

War Chronicles:  On Friday, asserting that Iran had made major concessions, Trump said the war with Iran was essentially over.  Oil prices dropped and equity markets rallied.  Then the weekend happened. Despite Trump’s claim, the Strait of Hormuz or as Trump inadvertently called it in one of his Truth Social posts, the Strait of Iran, still isn’t open. The US is blocking the passage of Iran’s ships and Iran is blocking all the others.  Yesterday, to protest Iran’s failure to “cooperate” the US seized an Iranian cargo ship.  The short-term ceasefire is scheduled to end on Tuesday.  Yesterday Trump said that he was sending Jared Kushner and Steven Witkoff to Pakistan for another round of talks with Iran.  Initially he said that the team wouldn’t include VP Vance because it was “too dangerous” but then he backtracked and said that of course he’d be sending Vance.  Whether or not Vance is part of peace squad may now be academic because in response to the seizure of their cargo ship and perhaps also in response to another one of Trump’s threatening “all hell will rain down” posts, Iran says that since they doubt the US is really serious about peace, they have no plans to send a team to Pakistan though they haven’t made a final decision yet. Josh Dawsey, the Washington Post expatriate who is now with the Wall Street Journal wrote this weekend that Trump who’s been “veering between belligerent and conciliatory approaches and grappling behind the scenes with just how badly things could go wrong” sometimes “loses focus,” spending more time on the details of his plans for the White House ballroom and midterm fundraisers.”  Trump is in over his skis and unfocused while the Iranians who say, despite Trump’s assertion otherwise, they haven’t agreed to much and most certainly haven’t agreed to give up their nukes, follow their own rules, and continue to show that they have a high tolerance for pain. The bottom line is there is no bottom line.

Peeps:  There’s no point in trying to figure out who among Trump’s team Is the worst or who among them will be next to be shown the door because so many of them are exit worthy.  That said, this week FBI Director Kash Patel could be leading the crowded pack, not that uber Christian nationalist Hegseth or wackadoodle RFK are far behind. Citing a number of unnamed sources, The Atlantic’s Susan Fitzpatrick detailed Patel’s drinking and partying habits, reporting that the frequently MIA Patel has been so out of it that FBI agents have come close to breaking down his doors to rescue him from what they thought was an alcohol (and drug?) induced coma and that when he had trouble logging in to his computer the extremely paranoid Patel freaked out believing he’d been fired. Patel is so irate about the article that he’s had his lawyer send one of those “lawsuit incoming” warning letter to The Atlantic but it’s hard to believe that the respected magazine or the also very respected and experienced Fitzpatrick didn’t thoroughly vet the piece with their lawyers before publication.  If Patel moves forward with a suit, the discovery, which will certainly include the viral pictures of Patel downing alcohol in the locker room with Team USA at the Milan Olympics, will be epic. Patel told Fox News that “arrests are coming this week” over the “rigged 2020 election” because he needs a lifeline and promising Trump that he’s on the verge of arresting those who “stole” the election is a good one. Duck if you see any FBI guys coming your way because someone needs to be frog marched off in handcuffs and it’s not clear that Patel cares whose life he ruins.

More Retribution:  It’s not just Patel who is playing up to Trump; Acting AG Todd Blanche who’d really like to lose the acting part of his title is doing the same.  Over the weekend the DOJ removed Maria Medetis Long, the career federal prosecutor leading the investigation into former CIA head John Brennan, after she resisted pressure to quickly bring charges.  Those “charges” relate to the Russia probe that led to Trump’s first impeachment. Blanche has now appointed blast from the past Trump lawyer Joseph diGenova to serve as his special counsel for what is being referred to as “grand conspiracy” probe, the conspiracy referring to anything associated with the investigation into Trump’s Russia canoodling. The expectation is that diGenova together with another attorney named Christopher-James DeLorenz who previously clerked for Florida Judge Aileen Cannon, will do everything he can to get his subpoena requests and case in front of the Trump friendly judge.  Cannon has every reason to stay in Trump’s good graces especially since the soon to be 80-year-old Trump more than hinted last week that it’s time for some of those older guys on the Supreme Court like 76-year-old Justices Alito and 77-year-old Thomas to retire so that he can replace them with younger extreme right-wing versions. Both Thomas and Alito, who was recently hospitalized for a bout of dehydration, say that they have no plans to retire anytime soon but if Trump loses the Senate in the midterms, he’ll surely kneecap at least one of them, pulling another Amy Coney Barret like confirmation coup.  In any case, Cannon will have competition for the SCOTUS slots since Senators Mike Lee and Ted Cruz may also be on Trump’s replacement short list. Cue up the vomit 🤮 bags.  As to the elections, Trump really fears their outcomes which is why he has the DOJ trying to scoop up election records and voter lists all over the country because if he can’t win fair and square, in the absence of SCOTUS telling him all the voting maps that don’t favor Republicans are unfair, cheating, like declaring martial law, is an option.   

Weird 💩:  If you are into conspiracies but not into discounting fair election results something may or may not be a foot on the scientist front.  Apparently ten or more of them have gone missing. 🤷‍♀️ Or not.  As if we don’t already have enough to worry about. 

  

Pulp Fiction 😱 ✡️🌻😱 💣🚀 

War Chronicles:  According to Trump Iran has made major concessions in negotiations and a deal to end the war could be made very soon.  He also said that it may not be necessary to extend the ceasefire because the two sides are so close to making a deal.  If true, that would be good news.  The problem is that Trump says lots of things that aren’t true and it’s not clear what those concessions are, to the extent they exist, so skepticism is warranted. Moreover, since Arab and European leaders believe that it will take months to come to a real peace accord, they believe that an extension of the ceasefire is necessary.  Iran has yet to comment on Trump’s assertion that they’ve agreed to his demands.  On a more believable note, Trump also announced that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire which as of right now appear to be for real.  At least for the moment Hezbollah which takes its orders from Iran appears to be abiding by the pause, emphasis on for now. Back at home, by vote of 214 to 213 with centrist soon to retire Maine Democrat Jared Golden joining all Republicans except Thomas Massie who voted with the Democrats the House failed once again to pass a war powers resolution. By a vote of 52 to 47 Senate Republicans blocked a vote on a similar measure.  All Republican Senators in attendance with the exception of Kentucky’s Rand Paul voted with the majority.  Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman voted with the Republicans. West Virginia’s Jim Justice missed the vote entirely because he was home trying to prevent banks from foreclosing on his family’s Greenbrier resort. Presumably, Babydog, the bulldog who accompanies Senator Justice everywhere also missed the vote.  In two separate votes, the Senate voted down Bernie Sanders measures to restrict sales of bulldozers and 1000-pound bombs to Israel. Though both measures failed it’s notable that 40 Democratic Senators voted to restrict the bulldozer sales while 36 voted to restrict the bombs. The shift in sentiment among Democrats is a bad omen for Israel.  Some of those who voted for the measures said they did so to express their disapproval of all things Netanyahu, others to show their general disapproval of all things Israel with some of those, especially those from states like Michigan, more concerned about cultivating pro-Palestinian voters than holding on to all their usual Jewish constituents. Lastly on the war front, Secretary of War and Beer Pete quoted a Quentin Tarantino made up bible verse from Pulp Fiction to justify the administrations actions while Trump and JD Vance ramped up their war with Pope Leo.  At a Turning Point USA event that was so poorly attended that an embarrassed Erika Kirk cited a security concern that the Secret Service said did not exist to justify her failure to attend, Newbie Catholic Vance insisted that he’s more of an expert on Catholic theology than the Pope, an odd position but one that reflects the hubris as well as the idiocy of this administration. It’s hard to see how enraging Catholics makes for a good policy or how it will benefit Vance’s presidential ambitions, but MAGA is MAGA and the rest of us have been wrong before.

MAHA Not:  Keeping with the lying theme, during his testimony before the House, RFK who according to a new biography cut the penis off of a raccoon while his kids were waiting in their car, because of course he did, lied and denied repeatedly.  When asked about the rise in measles cases he said we’ve done better than lots of countries even though the US has seen a bigger percentage increase than any other country.  When asked about an interview where he said that Black children on ADHD medication should be re-parented he claimed he’d never said that even though it’s on tape. He questioned the legitimacy of a report about health care fraudsters who have been pardoned by Trump even though the report was true. And now, having screwed around with vaccine recommendations, he’s got his sights set on remaking the panel that determines recommended preventive health care services.  That matters because insurance companies take their cues about what they cover from that panel.  In other health care news, yesterday Trump announced that he’s nominating Erica Schwartz who served as Deputy Surgeon General during his first administration to serve as the head of the CDC.  Dr. Schwartz who is pro-vaccine, is a traditional choice meaning that her views are mainstream. Her nomination, likely an indication that Trump or at least some of his advisors recognize that RFK’s quack positions aren’t going over well with lots of voters, has already outraged some in RFK’s orbit. It will be interesting to see if she lasts or if she leaves in frustration like Susan Monarez did after she was kneecapped by RFK and those in his immediate orbit. One of those “health” advisors/conspiracy theorists in RFK’s immediate orbit is Calley Means whose sister Casey’s nomination to serve as Surgeon General remains in limbo.     

More 💩: Trump is expected to re-nominate Cameron Hamilton, a former U.S. Navy SEAL, as FEMA’s permanent administrator. Hamilton’s first nomination for the permanent role was scuttled after he contradicted then DHS head ICE Barbie Noem by saying that he didn’t think that FEMA should be disbanded.  Just a little churn among friends.  Along those lines, Todd Lyons the temporary head of ICE, announced he’ll be leaving at the end of May.  Last night the House passed a 10- day extension of the FISA surveillance law. Despite whipping by Trump, Speaker Johnson is having a hard time getting a full extension passed. Johnson now has another Democrat to contend with as yesterday Democrat Analilia Mejia who is expected to join the progressive “squad” easily won the special election for the House seat vacated by NJ Governor Mikie Sherrill. And lastly for today, Hungary’s new leader is cleaning shop, one of his actions concerns CPAC, the Conservative Political Action Committee whose Hungarian arm had been receiving funding from Viktor Orban which explains why CPAC had such a presence in Hungary and may also explain why Tucker Carlson spent so much time there as well.

  

 

Blasphemy Among Friends 😱 ✡️🌻😱 💣🚀 🐷💄 

🥜 🥜 🥜: In a nutshell, the Iran war is not over, the US is blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and though it’s good that Secretary of State Rubio hosted a meeting between Lebanon and Israel, both sides in that front acknowledge that a large part of their problem is the not in attendance Hezbollah, its continued support from Iran, and its unwillingness to put down its guns and missiles. Now to the whole nut, earlier this week Trump posted an AI generated picture depicting himself dressed in white robes, placing a glowing hand over an ill or deceased man in a hospital bed, as if to heal or resurrect him. The image was taken by many, especially Catholics and conservative Christians, as him presenting himself as Jesus. In no position to assess what counts as blasphemy, I just thought it was nuts, not only because it’s incredibly weird to depict oneself as a supreme religious figure but because the people he offended, most notably Catholics make up one fifth of the US population and are, according to Axios, America’s most powerful swing religious bloc.  Offending them while also taking on Pope Leo seems self-destructive, especially in the run up to the midterms when members of his coalition are already upset about gas prices and inflation, bigly problems that can’t be dismissed with an orchestrated visit by a not so real door dash actress to the White House. That’s the message that members of his staff and a number of politicians must have whispered into his ear because Trump removed the post, saying that he mistook the Jesus figure depicted in the picture for a doctor. That lame excuse wasn’t just dubious,  it was just another indication of the damaged state of his brain, because it turns out that his White House advisors wanted him to claim that the image had been doctored not that it was a picture of a doctor. It’s no wonder he missed those warnings about how difficult it would be to keep the Strait of Hormuz open if he waged an all-out war against Iran.  Maybe he thought they said the war and protecting the Strait could be accomplished while he was taking a snooze🤷‍♀️? 

🐷 Ugh 🐷:  Though they have all got to know that Trump is well within 25^th Amendment territory, neither newbie Catholic VP Vance, nor any member of his cabinet of complicit cronies are likely to do anything about it because ignoring the obvious is a whole lot easier even if the “it” in question leaves Trump with his finger on the proverbial button. Though the consequence of their inaction is far more dangerous, as it turns out they aren’t alone in ignoring the obvious because the word out of Congress is that lots of people in the House and in the press knew that California Democrat Eric Swalwell had what is charitably being called a flirtation problem.  To be clear, that “flirtation” problem didn’t just involve making inappropriate remarks and engaging in consensual affairs, according to a number of his accusers it also involved rape. The best that can be said about Swalwell at this point is that he had the good sense to resign from Congress.  Not only is he out, but Texas Republican Tony Gonzales, who “allegedly” repeatedly harassed a number of his female staff members and who is likely responsible for one of them choosing to kill herself through self- immolation has resigned too. As a result of their paired resignations, the House headcount stands at 216 Republicans, 214 Democrats and 1 independent.  For all practical purposes since that one Independent, California’s Kevin Kiley who recently switched his party affiliation in an effort to survive California’s recent redistricting, is still caucusing with the Republicans, that means that Mike Johnson’s count is 217. That barely-there majority explains why the Department of Homeland Security is still not funded, the extension of FISA (the spying legislation) is hanging by a thread, and little else that requires Congressional authorization is getting done. Also, that headcount isn’t set in stone because Republicans are still pushing for Florida Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick to be ousted for committing COVID fund fraud and Democrats are pushing for Florida Republican Cory Mills to be ousted for physically accosting one or more of his girlfriends, the girlfriends he was seeing while still married. Former US Congressman Madison Cawthorn had a whole lot of problems, but it turns out that his assertion that there were lots of sordid activities going on among his colleagues may not have been far off the mark.  TMZ has recently opened a Washington DC office, they didn’t do that to report on legislation so we may soon be learning more than any of them want us to know.

More 💩: Acting AG Todd Blanche says that since there’s nothing left to see, or that he wants anyone to see, there will be no more Epstein file releases. He’s also started the process of expunging the convictions of the Proud Boys and Oath Seekers who were convicted and then pardoned by Trump for their January 6 crimes.  Blanche’s competition, or competition in her own mind, for the permanent AG slot, Jeanine Pirro, sent a few of her goons to “inspect” the Federal Reserve Construction site in an effort to dig up more faux dirt on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. That could be a problem for Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee to replace Powell because North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis says that he won’t vote Warsh out of committee while Trump or his minions are going after Powell.  Once confirmed, and odds are he will eventually be confirmed, Warsh will be the richest Fed Chair ever and that’s not counting the wealth of his wife Jane Lauder, an Estee Lauder heiress.  Given the number of those engaging in piggish behavior in the administration and in Congress, it’s fitting that someone with access to lots of lipstick could soon be in government.  💄meet 🐷.

           

 

 Goulash With Paprika 😱 ✡️🌻😱 💣🚀

Cage Matches:  Trump attending an Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) cage match with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Ivanka, Tiffany, and Don Jr while his designated chump, Vice President Vance, was in Pakistan trying but failing to clean up his Iran mess may be this millennium’s most Nero fiddling while Rome burns moment. Then again, given that the orange one is just a little over one year into this term, a few more of those moments likely lay ahead. Vance and his negotiating compatriots, Trump real estate buddy Witkoff and son in law Kushner, left Pakistan without a deal, depressing but not all that surprising because as more skilled negotiators from prior administrations have learned the Iranians aren’t easy to negotiate with. The Trump team demands, including that Iran give up its nukes and uranium, call off it’s Hezbollah and Houthi surrogates, open up the Strait of Hormuz, were rejected by Iran which countered with a few of its own, including that it get to control the Strait, receive war reparations, and for a ceasefire across the region including in Lebanon where their Hezbollah surrogates are a significant part of the problem. After learning of Vance’s “failure” Trump announced via Truth Social that “Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.”  Forget about his earlier promise that the Strait would open on its own, instead think higher prices at the pump but Trump says that’s only for a while so not a bigly deal.

The Blue Danube:  All and all, it’s fair to say that Vance had a hard week since the other purpose of his trip was to rally support for Hungary’s now ex-Prime Minister Viktor Orbán who was trounced in his election by challenger Peter Magyar, whose party won a National Assembly (parliamentary) super majority. Magyar isn’t a liberal snowflake; he used to be a member of Orbán’s Fidesz party but broke away to join the fledgling Tisza party to protest Orbán’s excesses, including his corruption, his trashing of Hungary’s economy, and the pardoning of a former official convicted of covering up the abuse of underaged boys at a children’s home.  Trump, who together with Putin, Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon, is among Orbán’s staunchest supporters can’t be happy about the Hungarian election results or that Orbán so quickly conceded to Magyar.  As of early this morning Trump hasn’t yet weighed in on the election instead choosing to deflect his rage towards Pope Leo via a long, rambling Truth Social post, in which he attacked the Catholic leader for being “weak on crime,” for calling for peaceful resolutions instead of war, and for saying that immigrants should be treated kindly.  For whacko measure Trump also ranted about how he likes the Pope’s MAGA brother Louis much more than he likes the Pope while also throwing in a few sharp words about how priests and ministers were arrested for violating COVID rules, something that he says that Pope Leo should fear far more than the mistreatment of those murderous, violent immigrants that Venezuela had been sending to the US before the US invasion.  If you are trying to make any of Trump’s utterances make sense, give it up.  They are the rantings of a madman, albeit one with his finger on the nuke button.  The Pope responded by saying he will keep saying whatever he wants to say. Might be worth checking to see if Kalshi or Polymarket are making markets on how long it will take caught in the middle of this maelstrom VP Vance to renounce his 2019 conversion to Catholicism?   

Californication:  Republicans haven’t cornered the market on bad behavior. Over the weekend the bottom fell out for California Congressman Eric Swalwell who for a while looked like he might be the next Governor of California.  Apparently, the seven term Congressman, one-time presidential contender has a number of gnarly skeletons in his closet and by skeletons think sexually abused and/or harassed female staffers, including at least one who he allegedly raped when she was inebriated. The married Swalwell has admitted to misconduct but denies the rape.  Pressured by politicians on both sides of aisle, he has suspended his run for Governor.   What that means for California’s June 2 jungle primary, where only the top two finishers move on to the November election is anyone’s guess but it’s fair to assume that a reshuffling of the primary leaderboard is about to happen. No doubt the pollsters been doing their thing all weekend and will provide some new rankings soon.  Expect lots of new endorsements shortly.  Trump’s Republican supporters have been trying to trash Swalwell who has long been a vocal Trump critic for some time so it’s odd that these skeletons didn’t come out sooner, then again it’s kind of hard for Trump to take the lead in going after others for sex crimes and lots of members of Congress, many who are probably awfully nervous right now, have full closets. In any case, it looks like Swalwell’s problems are having a cascading effect because calls for him to leave the House ASAP are being paired with calls for Tony Gonzales, the married Texas Republican whose girlfriend/staff member killed herself when their affair went belly up, to also be kicked to the curb.

More 💩:  The economy is taking it on the chin and everywhere else. The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Friday showed a 3.3% annual inflation rate, the highest since April 2024, driven primarily by a 10.9% surge in energy costs due to the conflict in Iran.  That rate doesn’t reflect the upward pressure on oil prices from Trump’s Sunday blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey also released on Friday showed that consumer sentiment declined 11% early this month to a reading of 47.6, lower than anything seen in the post-World War II era, including during the Great Recession, the pandemic downturn and the inflation that took place afterward.  On the Melania front, it turns out that her unexpected presser was likely a prebuttal to the El Pais publication of an interview of Amanda Ungaro, the long-time girlfriend of her former model agent, Paolo Zampolli.  Ungaro who has since married a green card holder was deported back to Brazil this year while she was in the process of getting US residency papers. Zampolli who remains tight with Trump and Melania, is Trump’s Special Representative for Global Partnerships, one of those jobs you give people to keep them quiet. Also, because he apparently has nothing more important to do, Trump has disclosed detailed plans for his planned garish and huge Potomac River Triumphal Arch while also announcing plans to paint the granite exterior of the historic Eisenhower Executive Office Building next to the White House with a white "magic paint with silicate" that could cause permanent, irreversible damage to the building.  Also, the steel being used for his East Wing ball room project was donated by a Luxembourg based company that not so coincidentally benefited from a cut in steel tariffs that occurred almost simultaneously.

 

   

 

Stiletto Turns 😱 ✡️🌻😱 💣🚀 👠💃

War and Ceasefire:  To quote JD Vance, the “Iran ceasefire is a fragile truce.”  Whether the ceasefire was intended to cover hostilities between Israel and Iran’s Lebanese Hezbollah surrogates is a matter of intense disagreement.  Israel’s position is that it doesn’t.  Though Iran doesn’t appear to be directing its Hezbollah surrogates to stop shooting missiles and drones into Northern Israel, their position is that it does.  That’s also the position of ceasefire broker Pakistan and most of Europe. Trump’s position depends on whomever he spoke to last. The Hezbollah conundrum is giving Iran an excuse to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed to most ships and as usual everyone is blaming Israel, directing extra vitriol at the irascible and difficult Bibi who makes for an easy scapegoat. Fresh off campaigning in Budapest for Viktor Orbán, Veep Vance who weighed in by saying that he thinks “the Iranians thought that the cease-fire included Lebanon, and it just didn’t” has been added to the Kushner-Witkoff negotiating team being dispatched to Pakistan to work out the terms of the on again, off again ceasefire.  They have their work cut out for them. It would be funny if Vance and the Pakistani negotiators get that Nobel Peace Prize Trump covets so much. Not funny though is that Trump is threatening to leave NATO again and also once again talking about Greenland.  

BINGO 👠💃:  Yesterday provided another BINGO card moment, not more on the bimbofication front but an unscheduled, out of the blue six-minute in person statement by third wife Melania.  Donned in a stylish serious suit rather than one of her bodycon dresses she took to the podium to announce that she was not a victim of Jeffrey Epstein, that she was never on his pedo-plane, that her limited interactions with him and Ghislaine only took place because they traveled in the same New York and Palm Beach circles, that Epstein didn’t introduce her to the Donald who she met serendipitously (my word, not hers) at a party, that those pictures of her cozying up to Epstein and Ghislaine are either fake or are being misinterpreted, and that the sweet note she wrote to Ghislaine and signed with love was also either fake or just the way the Palm Beach and New York social set communicate. Before she “turned on her stiletto 👠 heels and stalked out as the dazed reporters started shouting after her: “Why now!? Why now!?” (possibly the best ending to a NY Times article ever published) she called for Congress to give the Epstein victims an opportunity to appear before them. Trump who had been using the Iran war to distract from the Epstein mess appeared as surprised about her statement as everyone else. Paolo Zampolli, the Italian modeling agent who allegedly used his Trump/Melania friendship to get the INS to deport the mother of his son to obtain custody now says that he’s ready to testify in Congress that he introduced the couple at the Kit Kat Club. Since it’s likely that Paolo would say anything at this point, he’s hardly a believable arbiter of truth but then again, who in Trump’s circle is?  No one other than Melania knows why she chose yesterday to speak but there is a lot of suspicion that another 👠 is about to drop 🤷‍♀️. If there is another shoe coming it won’t come from Pam Bondi anytime soon.  The Republican/Trump/Bondi party line is that since she’s no longer Attorney General, she is excused from testifying. However, Commerce Secretary Lutwick is currently scheduled to appear, unless of course he gets kicked to the curb beforehand.     

💩 💩: Keeping with the BINGO theme, if you had the Pentagon threatening the Catholic church on your BINGO card you’ve won again and if you had that threat including a reference to the Avignon papacy, you get extra points and are probably also a good student of history.  Apparently, in January the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby summoned Cardinal Christophe Pierre, the Vatican’s US representative, to a closed-door Pentagon meeting for a “bitter lecture” because apparently Secretary of War/Beer Pete Hegseth, who invokes his Christianity in every news conference, is not fan of the current Pope, his advocacy for immigrants and peaceful resolutions.  Then again, he’s probably not much of a fan of Catholicism since he describes himself as a Christian nationalist and is a member of the Communion of Reformed Evangelical Churches (CREC), which is described as an archconservative, patriarchal, Calvinist Protestant denomination. As to that whole Avignon papacy, it refers to a period from 1309 to 1376, when the Papacy was forcibly captured by France. Though it’s not clear that he had definitive plans to visit the US, if he did Pope Leo is thought to have shelved them. Veep Vance may want to shelve his recent book about his conversion to Catholicism too.  

MAHA Not:   Reports are that the White House has delivered a memo to Health Secretary RFK directing him to shift his public messaging away from vaccines and toward other topics, such as food and nutrition because they are concerned about the impact his anti-vax views are having on voters, especially the ones who want their kids to survive childhood. That said, RFK appears to have come up with a work around that he hopes will allow him to get the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice (the ACIP) around a federal court ruling that pushed back against his staffing the committee with hacks whose positions on vaccines mimicked his.  Instead of requiring that panel members have “expertise in the use of vaccines in clinical practice or preventive medicine, have expertise with clinical or laboratory vaccine research, or have expertise in assessment of vaccine efficacy and safety,” his new charter says that it’s enough if its member are “geographically balanced” and have a “balance of specialty areas” that can include toxicology, immunology, pediatrics, consumer issues and academic perspective.  That language might sound benign, but its intent is to give him the legal basis to reconstitute the panel and stack it with those who question the safety and efficacy of established vaccines including the way they were tested, their necessity and their scheduling. Even without the ACIP panel in action and despite the internal memo telling RFK to chill it, the anti-vax message is still being pushed, as evidenced by acting CDC head Bhattacharya’s hold on the publication of a study showing that this year’s COVID vaccine cut COVID related emergency care visits by 50% and COVID hospitalizations by 55%.  And because eviscerating the CDC and the NHI hasn’t kept him busy enough RFK is now planning to talk about his views on a regularly scheduled podcast. Maybe more stories about how he snorted coke off toilet seats?  

Economic SOS:   Trump’s economy isn’t doing well. Fourth quarter GDP growth which was initially reported at 2.8% and then revised to 0.7% has been revised down again to 0.5%.  The revised figure does not take into consideration the Iran war and its impact on oil prices. Not good, in a falling off a cliff kind of way.      

 

 

Whiplash 😱 ✡️🌻😱 💣🚀

Madman in Chief:  Former President Nixon, a believer of the Madman Theory of diplomacy, tried to convince Communist countries that he was so irrational and volatile that provoking him could lead to dire unpredictable responses. For all his many failings, Nixon wasn’t stupid, he opened diplomatic relations with China and established the EPA, but as evidenced by the outcome of the Viet Nam war, his Madman Theory didn’t work well in practice. Nevertheless Trump whose occasional bestie Roger Stone sports a Nixon tattoo isn’t much for learning from history so taking a page from Nixon’s Madman playbook or maybe because he’s just unhinged, he began Tuesday by doubling down on his threat to completely obliterate Iran, saying a “whole civilization will die tonight” beginning at 8 PM New York Time before ending the day agreeing to a two week ceasefire with the target of his threats.  The ceasefire agreement was mediated by Pakistan with the help of Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia with a lift from China and a final push from presidential wannabee VP Vance.  The deal lifts all sanctions against Iran, cedes control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran, allows Iran to charge passing ships a $2 million toll, but does nothing about Iran’s uranium or its nuclear weapon plans. Imagine the reaction if Obama or Biden agreed to any of that?  To put it bluntly, Trump’s unhinged threats TACO’ed into bigly concessions. Iran’s unseen leader may or may not be comatose and incapacitated, but whatever group is leading the country has got to be taking victory laps. On the way to Trump’s TACO, the NY Times published a piece from the Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan tag team that shifted much of the blame for the decision to go to war with Iran from Trump on to Israel’s Bibi Netanyahu who, according to various “don’t blame me” sources convinced the naïve and malleable (as if) Trump that he could accomplish what no other president before him thought was possible even though they’d all received variations of the same pitch from Bibi during their terms. You can tell who the sources were, they’re the ones who the NY Times credited with questioning the wisdom of Trump’s attack plan while doing nothing to stop it. Chief among the doubters was Veep Vance but before we give him too much credit for his “concern” or for helping, with China’s urging, to get Trump to pull back from obliterating Iran’s civilization, consider that he agreed to support Trump’s decision to attack Iran even though he believed it was foolhardy and for much of yesterday he was in Budapest, campaigning for it’s autocratic leader Viktor Orbán who is widely expected to lose his upcoming election. Not only has Orbán run Hungary’s economy into the ground and trampled on the rights of its citizens but he is buddies with Vladimir Putin whose Ukraine strategy he openly suports while also sharing some of those NATO secrets he’s privy to. While noodling over his Iran obliteration plans, Trump found the time to accept a staged call from Vance to express his love for Viktor. Although to be fair, it took two attempts for Vance to get through to Trump as his first attempt ended up in voicemail. 

Special Elections:  Former Congresswoman Margie Taylor Greene’s replacement will be Republican Clay Fuller.  That’s good news for Speaker Mike Johnson who needs every Republican House member he can get.  The bad news for him is that though Fuller won easily, his 12 point margin of victory was way below Trump’s 37 point 2024 margin in the same district.  That 25 point shift toward blue in a ruby red district is another omen of what is likely to be a blue wave in the midterms, assuming that is that the elections take place, Democrats don’t screw things up, and that the Republican’s much larger cash cache doesn’t transform into loads of red votes.  The Georgia election wasn’t the only significant one that took place yesterday.  With little fanfare, liberal candidate Chris Taylor won election to the Wisconsin Supreme Court beating her rival by 20 points in a state where statewide elections are generally won by the slimmest of margins. As a result, the make-up of the Wisconsin Supreme Court is now firmly in liberal hands.

More 💩:  Yesterday, during his first press conference as Acting Attorney General, Todd Blanche said he loves Trump, really he said that.  That’s not normal, nor is normal that he also said that it’s appropriate for a US Attorney General to do whatever the president wants him to do even if that means targeting his opponents for made-up crimes.  Apparently weaponizing the judiciary is only a bad thing when done, or allegedly done, by Democrats.  To that end, Harmeet Dhillon the Assistant Attorney General running the Civil Rights Division into the ground has been tasked with prosecuting Cassidy Hutchinson, the former Trump White House aide who had the guts to speak truth to power.                

 

F Word Diplomacy? 😱 ✡️🌻😱 💣🚀

War, War:  Very early yesterday the weapons officer, a member of the two-person US flight crew shot down over Iran, was rescued by the US military with some help from Israeli forces. The pilot, the other member of the downed plane’s crew had been picked up by US forces shortly after the plane had been shot down. The rescue operation was impressive, a show of our commitment to never leave a soldier behind as well an indication of US military might at its best. That said the rescue came at a high cost because it involved the use of a considerable amount of resources, the complete destruction of two of our planes and injuries to several members of the rescue team.  Trump who had laid low during the weekend, igniting social media chatter that he had been transported to Walter Reed for some unspecified health crisis or maybe just one of those suspected monthly infusions, emerged to celebrate the success of the rescue mission.  He then followed up by threatening Iran over Truth Social, screeching: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped in one in Iran.  There will be noting like it!!! Open the Fuckin Strait, you crazy bastards or you’ll be living in Hell.  JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.”  While it would be naïve to think that other presidents never expressed their frustration with similar language behind the scenes, it’s totally bonkers that Trump said what he said publicly and also bad that he’s threatening civilian infrastructure but then again, he is, as Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries put it, “disgusting and unhinged.”  Unfortunately, he’s also in charge. Overnight a Pakistani-brokered plan for an immediate ceasefire, to be followed by negotiations on a broader settlement to be concluded within 15 to 20 days, was proposed to Iran and the US.  At least at this point, the proposal doesn’t appear to be going anywhere because Iranian leadership who spent the night responding to Trump’s Easter threat by shooting off drones and missiles at civilian targets is also unhinged and doesn’t believe Trump can be relied upon. A pot calling the kettle black standoff with lives and nukes at stake.

Budget War:  The cost of the rescue operation and the entire Iran “incursion” goes far to explaining why Trump wants Congress to include an additional $1.5 trillion for defense spending in next year’s budget. Trump’s plan is for that money to be offset by extraordinarily steep cuts in funding for health, childcare, education, housing, the environment because we really don’t need those woke things especially since their funding gets in the way of keeping taxes for billionaires low.  As to that whole woke thing, apparently rooting it out of the military is one of reasons that Secretary of War/Beer Hegseth keeps firing generals.  It’s reported that Army Chief of Staff General Randy George, who was summarily kicked to the curb last week was ousted because he’d opposed Hegseth’s decision to remove two Blacks and two women from the one-star general promotion list.  To be clear, our military, whether one supports the Iran war or not, is performing impressively.  It was, until Hegseth stepped in, led by the “woke” generals, men, and women, white, black, and Hispanic that he with the enthusiastic support of Trump has been rooting out. It’s hard to miss the discordance.  Out of one side of their mouths Trump and Hegseth are celebrating the strength of the US military, out of the other side, they’re slamming it for its diversity, working to whitewash and single sex the leadership that got it there. Somewhere around 40% of the military identifies as non-white and women make-up just under 20% of active-duty forces. Alienating them by insulting their capabilities, reducing their promotion opportunities, and deporting their spouses while having INS agents waiting outside of military graduations to scoop up “undocumented” family members is more than discriminatory, it’s stupid and likely to have ramifications sooner rather than later.

Special and Weird: There are four special elections taking place in Georgia tomorrow.  One of the races is for the House seat vacated by Marjorie Taylor Greene where Democrat Shawn Harris, a retired Army General, is running against Republican Clay Fuller.  The other three elections are for state seats.  It’s unlikely that any of these seats will flip so the focus will mostly be on margins of victory.  Margie Q won her ruby red district by 30 points in 2024, so it’s a stretch to think that Harris has a chance.  However, Republicans have spent way more on the race then Democrats, an indication of their concern about the optics of tightening margins in the run-up to the midterms.  The weird race to watch is the June 2 primary to replace termed out California Governor Gavin Newsom.  Democrats are worried about losing the governorship because though there are far more Democrats in blue California, regardless of their party affiliation, only the top two primary finishers will get to progress to the November election. The Democratic field is splintered, with many candidates and no clear leader.  Congressman Eric Swalwell is running neck and neck with former Congresswoman/one time Senate aspirant Katie Porter and one-time presidential candidate/billionaire Tom Steyer with five other Democrats also on the ballot.  The more concentrated Republican field has only two candidates: Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco. There’s a chance that the two Republicans who until yesterday were polling around 17+/- points each finish in the top two spots, advancing to the general election, leaving the Democrats who are mostly polling in the low teens in the dust. The good news for Democrats is that Trump may have just given them an assist.  Last night, he endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, that’s good for Hilton but will likely tank Bianco’s chances of coming in second, making it more likely that one of the Democrats will nab the second place slot and then go on to win in November.