Against Smoke and Rubber Bullets 🧊 😱 ✡️🌻😱 👿 🧊
Weekend Election: This weekend wasn’t just about the Grammys, Melania’s grifty movie, and the Epstein files, more significantly it also involved two special elections in Texas. On Saturday, Democrats picked up a House seat while also winning a Texas state Senate seat. That a Democrat won the House election in a race that had been delayed by Texas Governor Abbott isn’t surprising since it involved a runoff between two Democrats for the seat previously held by Democrat Sylvestor Turner who died last March. What’s significant is that as a result of the election, the Republican’s already very slim majority in the House will shrink to 218 to 214 with four vacancies. That means that at least for now, Speaker Johnson who says that he will swear in winner Christian Menefee this week, can afford to lose only one vote on anything, including the funding package up for a vote this week which needs to pass so that the parts of the government that closed over the weekend can be reopened. It also means that the already difficult to negotiate and then pass Homeland Security package that was severed from the rest of the funding package by the Senate in response to Democratic uproar over the Minnesota murders of Renee Good and Alex Pretti will be that much harder to pass. The other special election in Texas has Republicans freaked out because the winner was a Democrat who won by a margin of 14 points in a district that Trump carried by 17 points in 2024. Democrats have overperformed in most of the special elections held since Trump took office, but this outcome was unexpected and the Democratic overperformance was huge. Though Trump claimed over the weekend that he didn’t know much about the race, he did, he had endorsed the Republican candidate and had tweeted about the importance of the race. If this race’s outcome, where Republicans spent ten times as much as Democrats, is a harbinger of things to come in the midterms it could mean that the blue wave really happens; that the Republican’s Texas congressional redistricting will backfire; and that maybe, just maybe Democrats stand a chance of finally winning a Texas Senate seat, the one currently held by John Cornyn, not that either side yet knows who their candiate for that seat will be. Cornyn is facing an uphill battle against several candidates including MAGA Attorney General Ken Paxton. On the Democratic side moderate State Representative James Talarico is competing against firebrand Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. Republicans, most notably Trump, fear that what happened in Texas could happen elsewhere which goes far to explaining why Trump and Ice Barbie are sending intimidating immigration goons to swingy places like Ohio where former Democratic Senate Senator Sherrod Brown stands a chance of beating his Republican opponent JD Vance replacement Jon Husted; why Trump is threatening to invoke the insurrection act; and why Republicans are once again trying to pass vote squelching legislation in the House and Senate. In other Senate race news, over the weekend, Trump endorsed his one time critic, former New Hampshire Governor Sununu, who is running for the seat being vacated by Jeanne Shaheen who isn’t running for reelection and Democrats in Michigan are in the middle of a food fight over who gets to run for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters. Both those seats matter bigly because the Democrats “pie in the sky” chance of of winning back the Senate doesn’t just rely on picking off states like Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and even Texas, it also relies on holding on to New Hampshire, Michigan, and Georgia.
Epstein, Epstein, More: So as you likely heard, a whole bunch of Epstein files were released on Friday. According to the highly unbelievable Deputy US Attorney Todd Blanche the dump represents all the remaining files though it probably doesn’t. It’s unlikely that anyone will be prosecuted as a result of the dump but what was released and the shambolic way they were released is very telling. A whole bunch of people on all sides of the aisle, mostly rich men but also a current female Goldman Sachs lawyer who appears to have walked away with a gift of a Hermes bag for her Epstein affinity, continued to interact with Epstein even after his disgusting treatment of young girls had entered the public domain. That group includes Trump, who is mentioned a lot, including by a girl who claimed he’d raped her. The emails also include evidence that despite his claim that he was disgusted by Epstein, Commerce Secretary Lutnick communicated with him about visiting his island as did Elon Musk who appears to have been seeking an invite to a “wild party.” The list goes on and on because apparently lots of icky rich people thought that Eptstein wasn’t all that bad even though they knew he evil. On the shambolic side, despite the requirement that victim’s names be redacted the accidental or maybe intentionally sloppy DOJ release included names and pictures of victims who hadn’t previously been indentified, even including a copy of one victim’s drivers license, and somehow or other a spreadsheet including references to Trump was posted than deleted and then reposted, maybe in its entirety, maybe not. Trump, is now threatening to sue the Epstein estate and journalist Michael Wolff, asserting that the files prove he did nothing wrong. They don’t prove he’s innocent though sadly there’s probably not enough in them for an indictment or to turn off much of his MAGA base because as he once said he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and get away with it. As to lawsuits, that’s what Trump does or threatens to do about everything. Last week he announced plans to sue the IRS for $10 billion over the leak of his tax info that took place during his first term. To state the obvious, sitting presidents, or even former ones don’t typically sue the government especially over tax information that normal presidents release willingly. Apparently, the $500 million that the WSJ reported he and his son’s World Liberty Financial crypto venture received from a UAE investment firm headed up by the UAE’s “Spy Sheik” that was not so coincidentally followed by the approval of the purchase by the UAE of advanced AI chips that prior administrations held up over concerns that the chips would fall into the hands of China wasn’t enough enrichment for him. After all, the Trump kids have to eat, Melania’s stilettos are very expensive, and there’s Barrons tuition, assuming he’s still in college. By the way, don’t be impressed by the reports that wife Melania’s movie brought in revenue this weekend. It did, but far more was spent marketing it and unlike most documentaries, it’s playing in theaters all over the world so of course some tickets were sold though not at my local theater.😊
Streets of Minneapolis: If you haven’t heard it yet, check out Bruce Springsteen’s Streets of Minneapolis protest song. It’s on point which is why Trump spent part of his weekend rage posting about it and attacking Bruce (who attacks Bruce???). As to Minneapolis, via Pro Publica we now know the names of the two immigration officials who shot Alex Pretti. They both have years of experience rounding up “violent” criminals not protesters which is just one of the reasons they were totally unsuited to be dealing with protestors and rounding up non violent immigrants and their children on the streets of Minneapolis. The good news is that the cute little five year old boy and his father who’d been seized and taken to an ICE “facility” in Texas were released and flown back to Minneapolis this weekend after a judge issued a scathing decision mandating their release. Among other things the judge suggeted that the INS squad read up on US history and familize themselfves with the Declaration of Independence and Constitution. The bad news is that there are many other children, many citizens, being held in similar or worse ICE facilities. As to the Constitution, Pam Bondi should read her copy too because arresting former CNN host Don Lemon for reporting on and accompanying some protestors into a church where the preacher was also an INS official doesn’t seem kosher. While it’s true that going into a church during services is a violation of a law more commonly used to protect patients going into abortion clinics, this DOJ has waved charges against people violating that law when it comes to abortion clinics because of course they have. Moreover, a number of US attorneys refused to seek charges against Lemon because they knew better. Lemon is now out on his own recognizance and the case against him will probably go nowhere but it is very chilling and another harbinger of things to come because we still have three more years. Trump announced last night that starting this summer he’s closing the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts for two years to “renovate” it. Apparently, destroying the Rose Garden and East Wing while trampling on our rights while destroying health care, urging on measles and polio, trashing the environment, etcetera, etcetera isn’t enough for him.
On a positive note, it’s supposed to make it to 32 degrees in NYC today. 😊