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War and Ceasefire: To quote JD Vance, the “Iran ceasefire is a fragile truce.” Whether the ceasefire was intended to cover hostilities between Israel and Iran’s Lebanese Hezbollah surrogates is a matter of intense disagreement. Israel’s position is that it doesn’t. Though Iran doesn’t appear to be directing its Hezbollah surrogates to stop shooting missiles and drones into Northern Israel, their position is that it does. That’s also the position of ceasefire broker Pakistan and most of Europe. Trump’s position depends on whomever he spoke to last. The Hezbollah conundrum is giving Iran an excuse to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed to most ships and as usual everyone is blaming Israel, directing extra vitriol at the irascible and difficult Bibi who makes for an easy scapegoat. Fresh off campaigning in Budapest for Viktor OrbΓ‘n, Veep Vance who weighed in by saying that he thinks “the Iranians thought that the cease-fire included Lebanon, and it just didn’t” has been added to the Kushner-Witkoff negotiating team being dispatched to Pakistan to work out the terms of the on again, off again ceasefire. They have their work cut out for them. It would be funny if Vance and the Pakistani negotiators get that Nobel Peace Prize Trump covets so much. Not funny though is that Trump is threatening to leave NATO again and also once again talking about Greenland.
BINGO π π: Yesterday provided another BINGO card moment, not more on the bimbofication front but an unscheduled, out of the blue six-minute in person statement by third wife Melania. Donned in a stylish serious suit rather than one of her bodycon dresses she took to the podium to announce that she was not a victim of Jeffrey Epstein, that she was never on his pedo-plane, that her limited interactions with him and Ghislaine only took place because they traveled in the same New York and Palm Beach circles, that Epstein didn’t introduce her to the Donald who she met serendipitously (my word, not hers) at a party, that those pictures of her cozying up to Epstein and Ghislaine are either fake or are being misinterpreted, and that the sweet note she wrote to Ghislaine and signed with love was also either fake or just the way the Palm Beach and New York social set communicate. Before she “turned on her stiletto π heels and stalked out as the dazed reporters started shouting after her: “Why now!? Why now!?” (possibly the best ending to a NY Times article ever published) she called for Congress to give the Epstein victims an opportunity to appear before them. Trump who had been using the Iran war to distract from the Epstein mess appeared as surprised about her statement as everyone else. Paolo Zampolli, the Italian modeling agent who allegedly used his Trump/Melania friendship to get the INS to deport the mother of his son to obtain custody now says that he’s ready to testify in Congress that he introduced the couple at the Kit Kat Club. Since it’s likely that Paolo would say anything at this point, he’s hardly a believable arbiter of truth but then again, who in Trump’s circle is? No one other than Melania knows why she chose yesterday to speak but there is a lot of suspicion that another π is about to drop π€·♀️. If there is another shoe coming it won’t come from Pam Bondi anytime soon. The Republican/Trump/Bondi party line is that since she’s no longer Attorney General, she is excused from testifying. However, Commerce Secretary Lutwick is currently scheduled to appear, unless of course he gets kicked to the curb beforehand.
π© π©: Keeping with the BINGO theme, if you had the Pentagon threatening the Catholic church on your BINGO card you’ve won again and if you had that threat including a reference to the Avignon papacy, you get extra points and are probably also a good student of history. Apparently, in January the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby summoned Cardinal Christophe Pierre, the Vatican’s US representative, to a closed-door Pentagon meeting for a “bitter lecture” because apparently Secretary of War/Beer Pete Hegseth, who invokes his Christianity in every news conference, is not fan of the current Pope, his advocacy for immigrants and peaceful resolutions. Then again, he’s probably not much of a fan of Catholicism since he describes himself as a Christian nationalist and is a member of the Communion of Reformed Evangelical Churches (CREC), which is described as an archconservative, patriarchal, Calvinist Protestant denomination. As to that whole Avignon papacy, it refers to a period from 1309 to 1376, when the Papacy was forcibly captured by France. Though it’s not clear that he had definitive plans to visit the US, if he did Pope Leo is thought to have shelved them. Veep Vance may want to shelve his recent book about his conversion to Catholicism too.
MAHA Not: Reports are that the White House has delivered a memo to Health Secretary RFK directing him to shift his public messaging away from vaccines and toward other topics, such as food and nutrition because they are concerned about the impact his anti-vax views are having on voters, especially the ones who want their kids to survive childhood. That said, RFK appears to have come up with a work around that he hopes will allow him to get the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice (the ACIP) around a federal court ruling that pushed back against his staffing the committee with hacks whose positions on vaccines mimicked his. Instead of requiring that panel members have “expertise in the use of vaccines in clinical practice or preventive medicine, have expertise with clinical or laboratory vaccine research, or have expertise in assessment of vaccine efficacy and safety,” his new charter says that it’s enough if its member are “geographically balanced” and have a “balance of specialty areas” that can include toxicology, immunology, pediatrics, consumer issues and academic perspective. That language might sound benign, but its intent is to give him the legal basis to reconstitute the panel and stack it with those who question the safety and efficacy of established vaccines including the way they were tested, their necessity and their scheduling. Even without the ACIP panel in action and despite the internal memo telling RFK to chill it, the anti-vax message is still being pushed, as evidenced by acting CDC head Bhattacharya’s hold on the publication of a study showing that this year’s COVID vaccine cut COVID related emergency care visits by 50% and COVID hospitalizations by 55%. And because eviscerating the CDC and the NHI hasn’t kept him busy enough RFK is now planning to talk about his views on a regularly scheduled podcast. Maybe more stories about how he snorted coke off toilet seats?
Economic SOS: Trump’s economy isn’t doing well. Fourth quarter GDP growth which was initially reported at 2.8% and then revised to 0.7% has been revised down again to 0.5%. The revised figure does not take into consideration the Iran war and its impact on oil prices. Not good, in a falling off a cliff kind of way.