Hearing What You Want to Hear

The Hearing: One cried, ranted and was belligerent, the other was composed, consistent and impressive. The first one may well make it on to the Supreme Court.  The second one now serves as an inspiration for women, and quite a few men, everywhere.  Speaking first, Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, the composed one, trembled sometimes but was soft spoken and unfailingly polite in the face of persistent, and sometimes inappropriate, questions from Republican surrogate Rachel Mitchell, the sex crimes prosecutor who stood in for the white, mostly too old Republican Senators who were so afraid that they would sound like insensitive buffoons that they contracted out their responsibility.  Dr. Blasey effectively destroyed any doppelganger defense by saying she was 100% confident that Judge Kavanaugh was the person who had tried to rape her years ago at a high school party.  You couldn’t help but feel her pain as she explained that it was her peculiar demand that her husband install an extra front door on their house that led the two to couples therapy where she revealed the details of her attack to her therapist and her husband.  The most haunting part of her testimony was her statement that the thing she remembered most about the attack was the sound of Kavanaugh and his friend and co-attacker Mark Judge laughing.  After her lengthy time on the hotseat, time frequently eased by supportive questions by the Democratic Senators who used their time allotments to drop countless documents about sex abuse into the record,  it looked like she might have swung a few Republicans to her side but that was before Kavanaugh’s time at the mic.  He came out swinging, blamed a toxic political environment for the attack on his virtue, demanded sympathy for the trauma that he and his family were going through and, taking a page from the Trump playbook, also blamed residual frustration over Clinton’s 2016 election loss for the way he, an accomplished Yale grad, was being treated.  He dismissed any suggestion that he had ever acted inappropriately with any woman, admitted to loving beer, really loving beer, but insisted that any suggestion that he’d ever gotten drunk enough to do anything violent was ridiculous even though his aggressive posture made him sound a lot like the type of guy who would beat up a woman or two when drunk. Has anyone interviewed his wife about that?  He went so far as to turn a question about his drinking back at Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar, asking her if she’d ever had a blackout from too much drinking.  Even he knew he’d gone to far with that one, he apologized later during a break.  Senator Klobuchar’s father is an alcoholic, she doesn’t have a drinking problem but is pretty good at detecting drinking problems in others, and based on her expression, it looked like Kavanaugh’s behavior was all too familiar to her.  Republican Senator Lindsey Graham also came out swinging, he fired Republican surrogate Rachel Mitchell on the spot chiefly because she started to ask Kavanaugh some probing questions.  Graham became Kavanaugh’s  leading advocate in the hearing room and outside in the Senate hallways during meeting breaks.  When approached in the Senate hall by one protester who revealed to him that she’d been raped and that like Dr. Blasey she only remembered selected details of her experience, he got caught on camera crassly snapping that she should report her attack to the cops as he stormed past.  Graham, who may well be auditioning for a cabinet position,  Attorney General comes immediately to mind, is now Trump’s number one wingman; John McCain would be so proud.  One or more Democratic Senators pressed Kavanaugh to request an FBI investigation, one that could clear up the inconsistencies between his and Dr. Blasey’s testimony, and each time he pushed back hard.  Likewise he dissed the value of polygraph tests, making it clear that unlike Blasey, he had no intention of going that route and given his anger management problem, that’s probably a good decision for him, not so much for the rest of us.  When asked about Mark Judge’s book about his alcoholic high school years and the inclusion of a reference in that book to a Bart O’Kavanaugh, Kavanaugh refused to comment instead saying that those questions should be directed to Mark Judge, a snide response given that Republican Chairman Grassley refused to subpoena Judge, or any other witnesses, to testify. 

What’s Next?  By the end of Kavanaugh’s testimony, it was clear that most of the Republicans in the room, with the possible exception of the conflicted Senator Flake, are firmly on team Kavanaugh and that all of the Democrats remain firmly on team Blasey.  Kavanaugh’s fate now hangs in the hands of Republican Senators Flake, Murkowski and Collins.  Democratic Senator Joe Manchin’s name has also been thrown into that mix but it’s likely that he’s more a follower than a leader, that he, along with some of the other Red state Democrats, will vote with whichever side is going to win anyway. Republican Senator Corker who had once been viewed by only the most delusional as a possible no vote announced last night that he will be voting for Kavanaugh.  The three swing Senators and Manchin held their own behind closed doors meeting last night before heading out while Trump, the teetotaler, celebrated Kavanaugh’s bombastic testimony, probably with a round of Diet Cokes. The Judiciary Committee vote is scheduled to take place this morning at 9:30, with another procedural vote on the schedule for tomorrow.  Senate Majority Leader McConnell will probably find a way to get the Kavanaugh nomination to the Senate floor even if Flake, the only fence sitter on the Judiciary Committee, abstains or votes no.  Providing further evidence of the nation’s divisiveness and the absurdity of the moment, late yesterday, after Kavanaugh tried to explain away the definition of the term Devil’s Triangle by saying that it was a reference to a benign drinking game, a Republican staffer edited the term’s more nefarious sexual connotation out of Wikipedia.  Just another one of those alternative facts.  One more thing, special mention goes to Vermont’s Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy, who proved that some old white guys do get it, he said that he believes all of the three women who’ve come forward as he called for an FBI investigation.  

Entering the Twilight Zone

Trump Roll:  Yesterday Trump showed up for a rollicking 80 minute plus press conference and boy was he in his element.  He responded to countless questions from the assembled press, only occasionally answering what was asked and rarely sticking to the facts.  He claimed that he’d refused a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau even though Trudeau never requested one and then went on to say that because Canada had treated us so badly he was inclined to go ahead with a NAFTA reboot without them. He again bragged about his North Korea achievements, ignoring that despite a recent halt in their nuclear tests they continue to bolster their nuclear arsenal.  He also repeated a statement that he’d made earlier in the day during a news conference with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu by saying that he’d be all in on a two state solution, or not, because whatever makes both the Israelis and the Palestinians happy and pleases son in law Kushner will work for him.  He went on to demonstrate his diplomatic acumen by calling a Kurdish reporter “Mr. Kurd” repeatedly.  He bragged about the number of judges that he’s managed to seat on the Federal courts and slammed Obama’s failure to do the same, woefully ignoring that Senate Majority Leader McConnell made blocking Obama’s judicial appointments his top priority.  He again lauded Judge Brett Kavanaugh as a brilliant jurist who was innocent of any and all of the accusations against him though he did leave an opening to dump Kavanaugh if any of those accusations are subsequently proven, his way of saying that Kavanaugh better perform well at today’s hearing or else.  As to the Kavanaugh mess, when asked why he didn’t call in the FBI to investigate any of the accusations, Trump once again claimed that the FBI had already done their job so why bother. When asked if his refusal to believe any of Kavanaugh’s accusers was based on his own experience, Trump went off on a tirade, understating the number of women who had accused him of harassment and then saying that only Fox had covered how many of those accusations came from women who’d been paid to say bad things about him.  As to women, he also asserted that most love him claiming that he’d received 52% of their vote during the 2016 elections, a number he loves to cite but one that includes only white women, in reality he received only 41% of the women vote.  As to Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein, Trump said that he might have to defer the meeting that he’d planned to hold with him today to free up his schedule to watch the Kavanaugh hearing. No need to rush to meet Rosenstein because it’s looking more and more likely that Trump has decided to keep Rosenstein at his post through the election.  Trump then ended his “concert” by taking one more question and saying "I always like to finish with a good one, Elton John said 'When you hit that last tune and it's good, don't go back.'" He then offered a bizarre example of how a bad encore can ruin a show. There is no public record of Elton John ever saying the bad encore thing, and, in fact, Elton John does believe in encores.  

Must See TV: It’s raining women for Brett Kavanaugh and not in a good way.  Yesterday, as promised Michael Avenatti brought forth Kavanaugh accuser number three, a government cleared, computer technologist named Julie Swetnick.  Swetnick, says that back in the day she attended around ten of those now infamous alcohol fueled Maryland beach parties.  She asserts that she witnessed Kavanaugh act aggressively towards young women at those parties and goes on to claim that he and his friend Mark Judge facilitated the group rape of a number of “incapacitated“ girls.  She says that she was gang raped at one of those parties, though she doesn’t say that either Kavanaugh or Judge were involved in her attack. At this point there is not much in the way of corroboration for her assertions but she provided them in a sworn statement prepared by Avenatti and given to the Judiciary Committee so they do carry some weight.  At least one of Kavanaugh’s friends defended him by saying that their crowd would never have hung out with someone like Swetnick because she only went to a public school and was therefore not worthy of their company. Beth Wilkinson, Kavanaugh’s lawyer, said that Swetnick’s claims must be false because she failed to report her rape and kept on going to the parties even after she witnessed the boys’ alleged bad activities, an opinion also voiced by several Republican Senators. Late yesterday, NBC reported still another accusation against Kavanaugh, this one was included in an anonymous letter sent to Colorado’s Republican Senator Cory Gardner.  In that letter a mother asserts that in 1998 her daughter witnessed Kavanaugh shove her friend, who was dating him at the time, up against a wall very “aggressively and sexually.” This was another alcohol fueled incident. The mother asserts that there were four witnesses, that the women involved have recently discussed the event amongst themselves but that none of them wants to be identified.  After learning about the Swetnick accusation, Senator Susan Collins called for the FBI to get involved and said that she wants to hear from Mark Judge. So far no one has subpoenaed Judge, who is laying low somewhere in Maryland. Kavanaugh vehemently denies all of the new allegations, saying that they are from the “Twilight Zone.”  Today’s Judicial Committee hearing with Kavanaugh and first accuser Dr. Christine Blasey Ford is still scheduled to go forward.  Yesterday, Senator Jeff Flake, the soon to retire Senator who is a member of the committee, went to the Senate floor to give one of his righteous speeches.  He expressed compassion for both Kavanaugh and Ford, repeatedly referring to them as "human beings." He also expressed regret that both Ford and Kavanaugh have received death threats, and disdain from some in both parties in the Senate.  "I will say to these witnesses -- these human beings -- we owe you both a sincere apology." He blamed the "toxic political culture" for infecting the confirmation process. He also chastised his colleagues for politicizing the issue before hearing Ford and Kavanaugh testify, and urged them to keep "open minds." Flake’s vote is particularly important because his vote may be the only one that matters since he appears to be the only member of the Judiciary Committee who is still undecided about Kavanaugh’s confirmation.  Both Kavanaugh Blasey Ford, the only accuser who has been invited to testify, have already provided their opening statements to the Judiciary Committee.  Ford’s is fairly persuasive, Kavanaugh admits to drinking during his high school days but asserts that he is totally and completely innocent of any misdeeds.   Must see TV begins at 10 AM EDT.  As of now a committee vote is still scheduled for Friday morning.

Huxtable in Orange

Trumpian Diplomacy:  Remember when Trump said that the world was laughing at President Obama, well they weren’t, but yesterday they laughed at Trump.  After arriving inexplicably late enough to cause a reordering of speakers, he started his speech to the UN General Assembly with the series of fact riddled boasts that he almost always employs during his campaign speeches.  While those friendly audiences of MAGA hat wearers eat up anything he has to say, the UN crowd was less impressed, so after he proclaimed “In less than two years, my administration has accomplished more than almost any administration in the history of our country,” they laughed.  That laugh rolled through the crowd slowly reaching a crescendo as those relying on simultaneous interpretation headphones got its full meaning.  A stunned Trump who missed the humor in his remark responded by saying that wasn’t the response he expected.  Later in the day, he claimed that he was just making a joke and that he appreciated the laughter, but no one was fooled.  The rest of the speech, which was written by immigration guru Stephen Miller but did not appear to have been vetted by any State Department diplomats, was dark.  Trump stuck with his America First theme, calling for all countries to celebrate their own uniqueness, a concept that initially sounds okay until you realize that he is pushing for nationalism over the continuation of the relatively stable world order that his predecessors worked so hard to put in place after World War II.  He bragged about his new friendship with North Korea, a sharp change from last year when he attacked the Little Rocket Man, turning his ire to Iran, a country deserving of some ire but a subject sensitive to many present given his withdrawal of the US from the US initiated agreement that, like it or not, seemed to be delaying its nuclearization. Later in the day National Security advisor John Bolton warned Iran that “there would be hell to pay” if their aggression continues, leaving the distinct impression that the Trump administration may well be on the verge of implementing one of those regime change strategies, something that rarely turns out well for anyone involved. Trump also attacked multinational trade deals, called for refugees to return to their places of origin and criticized a few allies most notably Germany for their agreement to build a pipeline for Russian energy, but said absolutely nothing else about Russia and nothing about Vladimir Putin’s aggressive attack on our elections, an attack that could well be ongoing.  He attacked OPEC for raising the price of oil, but failed to acknowledge that a part of that rise is due to his re-imposition of Iran sanctions and went on to brag about US energy independence. As to that independence he told the audience that they should starting buying energy from America, particularly some of our really clean coal. He said the usual stuff about not being willing to provide disproportionate support to the UN or any other entity or country, no matter how poor, that doesn’t give back something to the US.   Later French President Emmanuel Macron rebuked Trump’s call for isolationism and also said that France would only enter into trade agreements with countries participating in the Paris climate agreement, the agreement that the US is in the process of leaving. Trump diplomacy at its best.

Kavanaugh Hearing:  Tomorrow’s Senate Judiciary hearing is still on.  The Republicans have hired Maricopa County Arizona sex crimes prosecutor Rachel Mitchell, a registered Republican, to serve as their surrogate for the questioning of Judge Kavanaugh’s accuser Dr. Christine Blasey Ford purportedly because they want to provide a “safe, comfortable and dignified” environment for her but mostly, as the wry Senator Corker implied, because they want to avoid saying something stupid, offensive, tone deaf and/or hostile. If Maricopa County rings a bell it’s because it is the home of the infamous Sheriff Arpaio.  More significantly, Arizona is the home state of Senator Jeff Flake, the selection of an Arizona prosecutor may represent an effort by Republican leadership to get Flake, who has so far been an outlier but is thought to have future political aspirations even if he is leaving the Senate soon, on board for Kavanaugh’s confirmation.  The Democrats are prepared to do their own questioning and might allocate a disproportionate amount of their time to their female members, particularly experienced prosecutors Senators Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar, and presidential aspirants like Senator Cory Booker.  In an effort to keep the hearing as short as possible Chairman Grassley plans to limit the amount of time that both sides will have for questioning to a measly five minutes per Senator. It’s looking more and more like the hearing is mostly a formality, at least for Republicans.  There’s been no additional investigation by the FBI, something that Senator Lisa Murkowski said should happen before then saying maybe not after she was told to get back into line.  Also, Republican staff members no showed on a phone call they scheduled  with the lawyers for second accuser Deborah Ramirez, leaving her lawyers discussing her accusation only with the Democratic aides who did show up for the call. Dr. Blasey’s lawyers have forwarded four corroborating statements to the Judiciary committee, but as of now there are no plans to allow any of those people to testify.  For his part, yesterday Trump said that the Democrats are playing a con game, going on to verbally attacked Deborah Ramirez saying she “has nothing, the second accuser thinks maybe it could have been him, maybe not. She admits she was drunk. She admits time lapses.”  Then Trump who has been accused of sexual harassment by many women and who may well have had America’s one time dad, the now imprisoned Bill Cosby on his mind, went on to say “Oh, gee, let’s not make him (Kavanaugh) a Supreme Court judge because of that.”  For his part Senate Majority Leader went ahead and scheduled a committee vote for Friday morning, because regardless of what comes out at the hearing he’s sure, or claims to be sure, that he has the votes to move forward and confirm Kavanaugh to a lifetime Supreme Court position next week.  And then there’s Michael Avenatti, the attention grabbing lawyer that claims to have a third really credible accuser waiting in the wings, or not.    

Rosenstein Woes:  While the Kavanaugh Judiciary hearing proceeds, Trump will be meeting with Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.  Though no one really knows what Trump plans to do or say during that meeting, its looking more and more likely that Rosenstein will get a pass until after the midterm elections only because Trump has been advised not to do anything that would further impact the outcome of those elections.    That said, Rosenstein’s replacements are waiting in the wings.  Over the weekend Attorney General Sessions decided that his Chief of Staff Mathew Whitaker would take over all of Rosenstein’s responsibilities except for the supervision of special counsel Mueller, that responsibility, which has to be in the hands of someone who has been confirmed by the Senate, would most likely go to Solicitor General Noel Francisco.  However, Whitaker who has previously called the Mueller investigation a witch hunt and who is on record saying that any investigation that involves examining Trump’s financials would be a big step too far would be responsible for oversight of all federal attorneys, including those in the Southern District of New York, the very attorneys who are responsible for the Michael Cohen case and the investigation into those payments that the Trump organization made to hush Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal. In other news, it looks like Secretary Nielsen lied when she repeatedly said that Homeland Security didn’t have a policy of separating families.  Documents released as a result of a Freedom of Information Act request include a memo on the family separation policy, that memo calls for the criminal prosecution of parents who cross the border and states that Homeland Security can “permissibly direct the separation of parents or legal guardians and minors held in immigration detention so that the parent or legal guardian can be prosecuted.” Equally important, the memo makes no provisions for family reunification. Though the name of whoever signed the memo was redacted it was addressed to Nielsen so it’s kind of hard to believe that she didn’t know about it.   

Quit, Fired, Whatever

Rosenstein Chaos:  Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein was either summoned to the White House or went of his own volition. While there he met first with White House Counsel Don McGahn before being shunted off to Chief of Staff Kelly.  McGahn didn’t have any time to chat as he was busy dealing with the Kavanaugh mess and, given that his own days in Casa Trump are numbered, didn’t feel that he was the right guy for Rosenstein to commiserate with anyway.  During his conversation with Kelly, Rosenstein either tried to resign or told Kelly that he’d only leave if fired by Trump.  Rosenstein did finally speak with Trump but only by phone, since Trump was already in New York for the annual UN meeting. The two men now plan to have a face to face meeting on Thursday during which Rosenstein will either resign, be fired, or remain in his job at least until after the midterms.  If all this sounds impossibly vague and contradictory it’s because the truth is that no one knows what really went down yesterday. The White House Communications Department was so in the dark that they ginned up a statement on the fly saying that Rosenstein had resigned, while the Justice Department prepared their own statement saying that he’d been fired or resigned, since they also had no idea what was happening.   In the meantime, various news outlets reported that Rosenstein was fired, while others reported that he had resigned.  Now everyone believes that whatever is going to happen will happen on Thursday. The Rosenstein drama was triggered by last Friday’s NY Times article, the one that claimed that he’d been seriously considering taping his conversations with Trump and/or setting in motion the 25^th Amendment. Though it’s easy to blame the Times with or without the article Rosenstein’s expiration date was coming due anyway.  It’s widely believed that Trump plans to clean house after the midterm elections and that Rosenstein and Attorney General Sessions sit atop his to do list.  To the extent that Rosenstein is ousted, his oversight of the Mueller investigation is expected to fall to Solicitor General Noel Francisco.  Under ordinary circumstances the next in line to assume responsibility for Rosenstein’s oversight of Mueller would be the Associate Attorney General.  That person used to be Rachel Brand, but she jumped ship earlier in the year in part because she didn’t want to deal with the Mueller hot potato.  The person now in that position has not been confirmed by the Senate and therefore can’t supervise Mueller so the responsibility will fall to Francisco.  Though he is viewed as competent, he does not have prosecutorial experience and is viewed as a partisan tool and a believer in broad executive privilege.  Though he probably wouldn’t facilitate the firing of Mueller, the political consequences of doing that would be dire, it’s thought that Francisco might rein him in by curtailing his budget, refusing to authorize future indictments, putting the kibosh on any consideration of subpoenaing Trump and/or refusing to release any of Mueller’s reports to Congress. Moreover, though Rosenstein has resisted Trump’s calls to initiate investigations into any of Hillary’s alleged crimes, the ones that Trump likes to cite whenever his are getting too much attention, Francisco is on record as saying that he believes that Hillary should have been more vigorously investigated so it’s possible that he would be more amenable to Trump’s demands.  Democrats with the help of a few Republicans of conscience are again pushing for Mueller protection legislation but so far Senate Majority Leader McConnell refuses to act and the House, where it is unlikely that anything that protects Mueller would ever get passed, is due to go on another hiatus and to the extent that they do anything, they would be more likely to investigate Rosenstein for his “evil plan” to upend Trump.  

Kavanaugh Crisis:  The plot twists in Kavanaugh land continue to spiral out of control too.  In an effort to save his nomination, Kavanaugh and his wife appeared on Fox last night where he once again proclaimed his innocence, claimed that he’d been a virgin for far longer than he ever wanted to admit, and asserted that he’s only shown the utmost respect for women.  He stuck to what were clearly prepared talking points, proclaiming that he was “looking for a fair process one where I can be heard defending my integrity, my lifelong record of promoting dignity and equality for women.”  He fended off questions about whether he thought that the FBI should be called in to conduct further inquiries and prevented his wife from responding to a similar question, because props aren’t there to do much more than sit and nod.   To bolster Kavanaugh’s assertion of innocence,  Senate Majority Leader McConnell gave a faux impassioned speech to the Senate.  The guy who upturned all of the Senate rules in order to block Obama’s Merrick Garland nomination from moving forward lashed into the Democrats for launching a “shameful smear campaign that has hit a new low” and for violating rules of order.  Despite McConnell’s best efforts that Democratic campaign isn’t over yet.  Though Republicans have been doing their best to question the credibility of Deborah Ramirez, Kavanaugh accuser number two, her assertions have started to gain some traction and Senator Susan Collins is now saying that she should be allowed to testify. Complicating matters, Michael Avenatti promises that the accuser that he represents will come forward by Thursday, that she is someone who has held a number of government related jobs and as a result has previously passed FBI reviews.  Moreover he insists that he will also reveal the names of others who will be able to verify her claims.  As to those claims, though he hasn’t specified what they are, he’s come up with a list of questions that he wants Kavanaugh to be asked during the Thursday Senate hearing, those questions concern facilitation of group rape, something that Avenatti implies also involves Kavanaugh’s one time high school friend Mark Judge, the guy who wrote a book about his high school era alcohol infused days, a book that incudes a reference to his pseudonymously named friend “Bart O’Kavanaugh.”  The NY Times also reports that a number of Kavanaugh’s high school friends all kind of slut shamed the same girl in their high school year book by referring to themselves as “Renate Alumni,” a snide reference to time spent with a girl they knew.  In another plot twist that no reputable author would have ever written, that girl, Renate Shroeder, was one of the signers of the letter from the 65 girls who said that they all knew and respected Kavanaugh back in high school. Until the NY Times article, she had not known that she was referenced in the yearbook. Now she’s furious and hurt. Though high school slut shaming is not a criminal act, it hardly reflects a lifetime history of treating women respectfully. It’s worth noting that Justice Gorsuch attended the same high school as Kavanaugh and though his views are equally “conservative” he wasn’t involved in any of these activities, so the “everyone” did it argument really doesn’t cut it.  It’s also been reported that Kavanaugh has forwarded his high school calendars to Senate investigators as proof that he’d been nothing but an altar boy during his high school days.  Apparently, those 35 year old date books prove his innocence because he didn’t pencil in any keggers or nefarious deeds.  In still another wrinkle in this saga, Dr. Blasey Ford’s newest lawyer, Michael Bromwich, sent a letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee expressing concerns over their decision to retain an “experienced sex crimes prosecutor” to stand in for the Republican senators who don’t want to be seen questioning Blasey in front of a nationwide audience.  He’s threatening to pull Blasey from participating in Thursday’s hearing if the Committee refuses to conduct their own questioning.  Despite all of this, or maybe because of all of this, Trump reiterated his support for the “unfairly” treated Kavanaugh and McConnell insists that Kavanaugh will be confirmed by Friday.   

UN Week:  Trump reports that things are better than ever on the Korean peninsula and at least in one regard he’s right.  Yesterday he announced that the US and South Korea have finalized terms of a new trade deal, one that isn’t all that different than the two countries’ last trade deal.  As to North Korea, though they are still quietly working on ramping up their nuclear program, Trump again bragged about the progress being made on denuclearization, and said that another meeting with Kim Jong Un is in the works.  Trump is due to speak to the UN today, he’s expected to highlight the progress made with North Korea but plans to slam Iran, the country that still doesn’t have a nuclear bomb but is sadly adept at spreading discord across the Middle East.  Achieving world order and denuclearizing are two of those complicated things.  

Rosenstein and Kavanaugh are Deadish

Kavanaugh Calamity: When I started writing this yesterday, Dr. Christine Blasey Ford was the only woman publicly accusing Judge Brett Kavanaugh of sex abuse, but now there are two, and, if he’s to be believed, Stormy lawyer Michael Avenatti is representing an as yet unnamed woman who claims that Kavanaugh and some of his friends were known to target vulnerable women with the help of alcohol and drugs during their student days.  Last night Ronan Farrow, the MeToo whisperer, and Jane Mayer, The New Yorker’s respected investigative reporter, published a story detailing accusations by woman number two, Deborah Ramirez, a Yale classmate of Kavanaugh’s.  Essentially, Ramirez asserts that Kavanaugh exposed himself to her during one of those alcohol infused parties and though no one else corroborates her account, the two cite other classmates who say that Kavanaugh was known to be a heavy drinker and a serious partier during his college days and that such behavior was most definitely possible.  Apparently, Republican leadership has known about Ramirez for a few days, which is part of why Senators McConnell and Grassley had resisted delaying his confirmation process to provide time for  Dr. Blasey to testify.  Trump, who broke his moratorium on critical Blasey tweets on Friday by saying if she had really been attacked she or her parents would have filed a police complaint at the time was made aware of Ramirez’s existence before the New Yorker article was published.  He remains all in on Kavanaugh because what’s a few harassment claims among friends, especially if those friends are advocates of absolute presidential power.  If this was just about Judge Kavanaugh it would be bad enough, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that the accusations against Kavanaugh are just the tip of the iceberg, an iceberg that digs deep into the Republican party which isn’t to say that Democrats are angels, they are confronting their own Keith Ellison problem, but this group of clowns rots from Trump’s crown on down.  We may never know with certainty what happened to Dr. Blasey during that long ago party in Maryland, but its fair to say that her claim that she was attacked by Judge Kavanaugh is credible and that Ramirez’s story also rings true.  That Dr. Blasey told her story to her therapist long before Kavanaugh was a Supreme Court nominee and her naming of a witness, something that sex abuse experts say doesn’t happen when accusations are invented, bolsters her allegation.  Though it would be a huge stretch to suggest that at this late date there would ever be sufficient evidence to convict Kavanaugh in a criminal court, that’s not the point, he’s being considered for a lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court, his character is what’s relevant, and his appears to be significantly tainted.  Beyond Blasey’s accusations and the new ones from Ramirez, it doesn’t help Kavanaugh’s cause that he was so evasive during his confirmation hearing:  he refused to admit that he knew information provided to him back when he was in the George W Bush administration had been obtained illegally, even though the email containing the disputed information was labeled in a manner that indicated that it had been filched; he helped guide a few questionable judges through their confirmation processes, but then denied that he had any significant involvement; and, most notably, he says that he would respect that Roe v Wade is established law even though he recently wrote a scathing dissent, one that had it been the majority opinion, would have forced a 17 year old held in an INS facility to continue an unwanted pregnancy.  Moreover, he bragged about being a member of the 100 keg club during his Georgetown Prep years, was a member of a particularly misogynist club at Yale and has given several speeches all ending with a variation of the Vegas coda: what happened at Georgetown, Yale, or where ever, stays there. After a weekend of back and forth negotiations that took place before the Ramirez accusation went public, Judiciary Committee Chairman Grassley finally agreed to defer a committee vote and to hold a session on Thursday to hear and question Dr. Blasey and Judge Kavanaugh about her allegations.  As of now Grassley is not allowing the subpoenaing of Mark Judge, the Kavanaugh friend that Dr. Blasey asserts witnessed and participated in the attack, or any other witnesses. Last night, in response to the Ramirez accusation, Senator Diane Feinstein, the ranking Democrat on the Judiciary Committee, renewed her calls for an FBI investigation and called for the cancellation of the Thursday hearing pending an FBI report.  To the extent that the Thursday hearing takes place her Democratic colleagues plan to conduct their own questioning of Kavanaugh and Blasey. However, the all-male Republican contingent on the Judiciary Committee are so afraid that they will mishandle their Blasey interrogation that they are still considering engaging a female surrogate, either a staff member or an outside lawyer, as a stand in. And it’s not just that they would come off sounding mean, they’ve already demonstrated that they are meanspirited.  In addition to trying to accelerate the Kavanaugh vote to get ahead of the newest accuser, they’ve also been engaging in some nefarious shenanigans.  Senate Majority Leader McConnell told the audience at the pious Values Voter Conference (values voters!?!) that he plans to plow Kavanaugh’s confirmation through and that he’s confident that he has the votes to do so and Lindsey Graham said that regardless of what Dr. Blasey says he’s planning to vote for Kavanaugh because why should a few accusations ruin that good guy’s career.   One Republican aide appears to have been working with the outside conservative group that spread the false story that Blasey had been attacked by a Kavanaugh doppelganger, a story that he may have coordinated with Kavanaugh, and another Republican staff member was pulled off the Kavanaugh squad after his own history as an accused abuser came to light.  Furthering the observation that the current crop of Republicans are particularly heinous, over the weekend it was revealed that Jason Miller who served as Trump’s key spokesman during the 2016 campaign but lost out on the job of White House communications director after it was revealed that the he tried to force one of his girlfriends to get an abortion, slipped an abortion causing drug into a smoothie that he delivered to another girlfriend, causing her to miscarry and requiring her to spend a few days scarily ill in the hospital. The married Miller has now lost his job as one of CNN’s Republican pundits, a job he never should have had in the first place.  At this point there has been no word from Senators Murkowski, Flake or Corker but Senator Collins has expressed some of her characteristic dismay at Trump’s suggestion that were her accusations true Blasey would have reported them when they happened.  Hopefully, McConnell was bluffing when he said that they are all on board to vote yes for confirmation.  As to Kavanaugh, if he has any sense at all, he’ll withdraw his nomination sooner rather than later, moving aside for another uber conservative judge, one with fewer warts but similar views.          

Numbered Days:  Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein still has his job but his days are most certainly numbered.  On Friday afternoon, the NY Times reported that during the days following Trump’s dismissal of FBI Director James Comey, a dismissal that Trump initially attributed to a Rosenstein recommendation, a very frazzled Rosenstein seriously  considered wearing a wire during his conversations with Trump and contemplated trying to get a few members of the cabinet to help him initiate Article 25 proceedings to get Trump out of office and into a loony bin.  The NY Times article which was based on information provided by current and former members of the Justice Department and FBI also cites a contemporaneous memo written by former Acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe but doesn’t quote any people who were actually present at the time that Rosenstein is believed to have made those remarks.  Rosenstein’s allies say that he has a particularly dry sense of humor, that anything he said was most certainly said sarcastically and was not meant to be taken seriously and that some of the NY Times’ sources, particularly former FBI employees Lisa Page and Andrew McCabe, are no fans of Rosenstein and could be out to get him.  To that end, the NY Times is facing a lot of criticism for even publishing the story, with many saying that in an effort to get a sensational story out, the paper may have accelerated the end of Special Counsel Mueller’s investigation.  Shortly after the article appeared, the Washington Post weighed in with an article based on conversations with people who were actually in attendance at the time that Rosenstein said what he is alleged to have said and they report that he was most definitely just engaging in gallows humor.  For his part Rosenstein denies that he ever seriously considered taping Trump and, under pressure from Chief of Staff Kelly, one of the people Rosenstein supposedly was planning to enlist to get the 25th Amendment process rolling, Rosenstein followed up with a more forceful statement that more or less said that Trump wasn’t nuts enough to warrant a 25^th Amendment removal. Rosenstein is now treading water in a sinkhole.  He might make it through the midterms but only because Trump is being advised to contain himself for now so as not to do anything that would contribute to the “blue wave.” And to steal a term from Comey, oh lordy wouldn’t it be nice if that blue wave turns into a tsunami and is more than just a Democratic fantasy.  Interestingly enough one of the people telling Trump to control his hatchett is his favorite advisor Sean Hannity who thinks that the NY Times article was planted to get Trump to do something damaging to his own interests.   In any case, even prior to the NY Times article, expectations were high that Trump’s post election plans include firing both Rosenstein and Attorney General Sessions.  Whatever Mueller is up to, he’d better act fast, and, to the extent that he hasn’t already, he’d better get those thumb drives chock full of reports and impending indictments out to reliable Federal Attorneys across the country. As to Rosenstein, sarcastic or not, who can blame him for wanting to wear a wire, or even turning on his cell phone Omarosa style, and it goes without saying that Trump is crazy, but sadly crazy like a fox. Few if any of his remaining cabinet members would ever consider invoking the 25^th Amendment.

Model Clerks

Kavanaugh Chronicles:  Dr. Blasey Ford, Judge Kavanaugh’s accuser, now seems willing to testify in front of the Senate next week.  Her lawyers have been trying to work out the rules of the road for her appearance.  First and foremost, they say that she will not be able to testify on Monday, the drop dead date that Committee Chairman Grassley set for her appearance, instead they have proposed Thursday.  They also say that her appearance is contingent on the Senate providing her with adequate security, a significant concern for her and probably one for Kavanaugh since both of them have been receiving death threats.  Her lawyers also want Kavanaugh to testify first, and want other witnesses, including Kavanaugh’s friend Mark Judge, who Dr. Blasey says was present during the assault, to be subpoenaed to testify.  Judge, a recovering alcoholic, has previously said that he has no recollection of the assault or even the party where the assault is alleged to have taken place; however, it’s not clear that he will stick to that story once under oath. Blasey’s lawyers also insist that Kavanaugh be banished from the Senate chamber during her testimony.  Lastly, they insist that the Senators be forced to conduct their own questioning.  That’s a problem for Chairman Grassley since none of the Republican members of the Judiciary Committee are women.  His plan is to farm the Blasey interrogation out to outside counsel, someone of the female persuasion, in order to avoid having one of his octogenarian members, or one of his other members with octogenarian views, say something unnecessarily hostile to Dr. Blasey,  something that would serve as fodder for the nightly news, internet and twitterverse. There are women on the committee, however all four of them are Democrats.  They include Senators Feinstein, Klobuchar, Harris and Hirono and no doubt each of them are looking forward to skewering Judge Kavanaugh and aren’t looking for any outside counsel to step into their shoes.  As of now, though some progress has been made, final details remain up in the air and it’s not yet clear that either side is prepared to budge from their preferred hearing date.  In other related news, one Facebook poster now denies her assertion that she’d heard some chatter about the Kavanaugh attack back during her school days while another person has told the Huffington Post that parties like the one that Blasey described were the norm back in the day and that alcohol fueled forced sexual encounters were not that unusual. Separately, students at Yale Law school report that Professor Amy Chua, the author of  Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mom who serves as a mentor to female law students seeking clerkships, said that it was “no accident” that Kavanaugh’s female law clerks “looked like models.”  She told students hoping to clerk for Kavanaugh that he preferred clerks with a “certain look,” and that they should dress “model-like” in order to make a “good impression” during their interviews. That said, none of the students and none of his clerks report being subjected to any harassment.  Amy Chua stands by her earlier statement that Kavanaugh would be a wonderful addition to the Supreme Court.  However, officials at Yale Law aren’t all that happy with the advice that she’s been giving students, they are now looking into her “coaching.”  In another indication that the Kavanaugh stuff is really getting out of hand, Ed Whelan, president of the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center, is pushing a totally different narrative.  He’s fingered someone else, a Kavanaugh doppelganger, as the person responsible for attacking Dr. Blasey, and has gone as far as to provide that person’s name and contact details to the twitterverse. Whelan may now find himself in court being sued by that doppelganger for defamation.  As to Trump, with both his and Kavanaugh’s popularity ratings heading south, he’s been advised by White House Counsel McGahn and advisor Kellyanne Conway to avoid wading further into the Kavanaugh mess and except for a few comments about Kavanaugh’s wonderful character and a nonsensical suggestion that had the FBI been doing its job it would have investigated the assault accusation 36 years ago when it happened he has kept relatively quiet.  Instead he’s redirected his energies elsewhere.  Last night he was in Vegas campaigning for Senator Dean Heller who is facing a strong challenge from Democratic Congresswoman Jackie Rosen.  While there, Trump again railed against Congress for failing to fund his wall. To that end, he’s threatening to shut the government down on September 30 if the budget isn’t reworked to provide him with wall cash, probably just more of his buffoonery than anything else and certainly not something that Republican leadership wants to see in the run up to the midterms.   

Michael Cohen Update:  ABC news reports that Trump’s one time lawyer/fixer has now spent many hours with members of Special Counsel Mueller’s team spilling his guts about  Trump’s business dealings in Russia.  Though no one from Mueller’s team has corroborated that report because no one from Mueller’s team ever talks to the press, Cohen’s legal spinmeister Lanny Davis confirmed the ABC report by tweeting “Good for @michaelcohen212 in providing critical information to the #muellerinvestigation without a cooperation agreement. No one should question his honesty, veracity or loyalty to his #family and #country over @potus @realdonaldtrump.”  Despite Lanny Davis’s assertion that Michael Cohen is pure as the driven snow, it’s highly likely that Cohen is cooperating with Mueller mostly in the hopes of reducing his prison time and that anything he says will have to be corroborated by others.

Water is Wet

Kavanaugh Conundrum: For a short time it looked like Supreme Court Brett Kavanaugh was toast but now it looks like the pendulum has swung back in his direction, not because of any new indication that he didn’t do what his accuser Christine Blasey Ford says he did but because Senate Republicans are now doing their best to stack the cards in his favor.  To that end they’ve invited both parties to appear in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee on Monday, an offer that sounds way better than it really is.  Judge Kavanaugh, has spent hours preparing his testimony and practicing his response to questions with the White House Communications and legal teams, including Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Communications Director Bill Shine, the guy who is up for the task because he was forced out of Fox for aiding and abetting network wide sexual harassment.  While Kavanaugh’s been practicing and phone schmoozing with Republican senators, Dr. Blasey has been otherwise occupied.  She’s been busy moving to a secret location to protect herself and her family from threats coming in from Kavanaugh’s supporters.  She’s also had her email hacked and had to give up use of her phone to avoid an onslaught of nasty calls.  Yesterday, her lawyers informed Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley that she doesn’t plan to participate in any public or private hearings until the FBI conducts an investigation of her claims.  She also wants to see more witnesses called in to testify under oath so that any hearing that ultimately takes place doesn’t turn into a “he said, she said” spectacle along the lines of the Anita Hill-Clarence Thomas hearings.  Trump insists that the FBI can’t get involved, a blatant lie but one that fits his narrative and plays well to his base.  The truth is that the FBI can and should get involved, not to undertake a criminal investigation but to do more vetting.  However, for that to happen Trump would have to give his authorization and he won’t because, though he says that both sides deserve the right to be heard, mostly he feels sorry for Kavanaugh, who he says is being unfairly accused. He’s not all that concerned about Dr. Blasey and her family.  For the record, as bad as things went for Anita Hill, before she testified the White House did authorize the FBI to do some additional investigating.  Senators Grassley and Hatch, who both participated in the Anita Hill hearings, haven’t evolved or learned much from the episode but they do know that the FBI has a role to play, they just don’t want to go there possibly because they fear that an investigation might actually turn up some incriminating information but also because they are in a  rush to get Kavanaugh confirmed before the midterm elections and certainly before any more accusers show up.  In an effort to appear conciliatory, Grassley offered to let Dr. Blasey testify in private but then made it clear that she better show up on Monday or else, hammering that point home by unreasonably insisting that her written testimony be provided to his staff by Friday.  Senators Collins, Flake and Corker who for a brief moment appeared to be Republican outliers have moved back into the fold, they all insist that Dr. Blasey show up on Monday to speak her piece or else and, by or else, they mean that if she doesn’t show up they will all vote for Kavanaugh’s confirmation, something they will probably do with or without her testimony.  As to some of those potential additional witnesses,  Kavanaugh’s cronies insist that they were at the “party” where the events took place while one of Dr. Blasey’s schoolmates posted a statement on Facebook saying that many of her classmates knew about the Kavanaugh incident back when it happened. Of course, right now none of them are speaking under oath.  Bottom line, the increasingly unpopular Trump, who has been accused of sexual harassment by 18 or so women, who once had a wife beater as a member of his senior staff, and now has a communications director who was drummed out of his prior job for fostering a hostile climate is doing his best to get a Justice, one who is himself historically unpopular and who may well be a member of the Trump Abuser Club, onto the Supreme Court where he will be able to impact the rights of women for years to come.  And Trump appears to be succeeding, at least for now.          

Trumpspeak:  Before heading out to the Carolinas to see the effects of Hurricane Florence first hand and to  practice pretending to be empathetic, something that’s easy to fake in states full of Republican voters with electoral college votes to spare, Trump announced that Hurricane Florence was “a tough hurricane, one of the wettest we’ve ever seen, from the standpoint of water."  That profundity aside, he pretty much stuck to the script the rest of his trip, didn’t throw any paper towels at anyone and graded on the Trump curve, came off relatively okay even if he did seem most concerned about conditions in the town where one of his Trump properties is located.  However, the statements he made during his Tuesday night interview with The  Hill were quite remarkable.  During that interview, he torched Attorney General Sesssions, saying that he doesn’t have an attorney general, adding that Sessions, the guy he hates because he recused himself from the Russia investigation, has also done an awful job at everything else including immigration, which even he has to know is absurd because though Sessions’ immigration activities have been unconscionable, they more than fulfill Trump’s wildest expectations.  When asked about that comment later he sighed and acknowledged that he really did have an attorney general.  His wistful response left the distinct impression that he hopes to rid himself of Sessions sooner rather than later.  Trump clearly is trying to insult and embarassment Sessions into resigning, because a resignation, unlike an outright dismissal, would make it easier for him to appoint someone more compliant, and by compliant think complicit, someone who he wouldn’t have to get through a Senate confirmation for seven months, enough time for him to fire Mueller, Rosenstein and anyone else standing in the way of his plan to rid himself of the Russia investigation, or at least that’s what he would like to do.  So far, Sessions appears to be impervious to Trump’s verbal attacks.  Trump also slammed the FBI, saying that the reason that he’s ordered the declassification of a number of key documents connected with the investigation of the “alleged” Russian collusion with members of his campaign team was to show that the probe was "corrupt" and a "hoax" -- and that exposing it could go down as a highlight of his presidency. "What we’ve done is a great service to the country, really, in its own way, this might be the most important thing because this was corrupt."  He admits that he hasn’t read those documents but has been told by his advisors on Fox that he should have them released.  He also seems to have forgotten that he appointed, Christopher Wray, the current Director of the FBI.  As to Wray and Director of National Intelligence, Dan Coats, another one of his appointees, they are doing their best to push back at Trump’s devious declassification command, setting the stage for what could be a battle or a Nixon like massacre.  To that end, Wednesday morning former CIA Director Michael Hayden told CNN that "it's getting close to the time” for Trump's “intelligence agency leaders to stand up to their boss about his declassification order and quit if he doesn't back down. “  Adding "sooner or later, we will come to a point for what the president demands is so egregious ... that the right thing for them to do, to signal the alarm, to send up the flare is to say if you want this done, Mr. President, it will have to be done by somebody else."  The clock is ticking.

Supreme MeToo

Kavanaugh Crisis:  Ensuring that the Supreme Court moves to the right and stays there for as long as possible is the ultimate goal of Republican leadership.  They supported Trump through the Access Hollywood controversy and have stuck with him, not out of any great admiration for his character, but largely because he promised to appoint their candidates to the court, candidates screened and approved by the very conservative Federalist Society.  To that end, Senate Majority Leader McConnell, who successfully stymied Merrick Garland, Obama’s last court pick, from even coming up for a vote, has broken every rule and ignored every convention to pave the way for Trump’s nominees.  He got rid of the filibuster to facilitate Neil Gorsuch’s confirmation to the court and has been doing everything he can to speed up the Brett Kavanaugh nomination.  With the cooperation of Senate Judiciary Chair Grassley, and contrary to past practice, he’s cut access to a large amount of Kavanaugh’s documents by moving ahead before the National Archives could complete their document review process, by permitting the appointment of an exceptionally Kavanaugh “friendly” lawyer for document review and then by labeling any of the controversial documents that couldn’t be squelched as “committee confidential,” a designation intended to prevent Democrats from sharing their content with the public.  For a while, despite some histrionics from some Democratic Senators including presidential aspirants Cory Booker and Kamala Harris, McConnell’s strategy appeared to be working. He’s now hit a roadblock in the form of #MeToo accuser Professor Christine Blasey Ford.  Despite his best efforts to disparage and ignore her letter, the letter that summarized her accusation that Kavanaugh tried to rape her during their high school days,  the Kavanaugh confirmation process has finally slowed down. As recently as yesterday morning committee Chair Grassley insisted that his committee would still hold their vote this Thursday, but under pressure from several Republicans including committee member Jeff Flake, Susan Collins, the Senate Republican’s designated “women’s rights protector,” and West Virginia Senator Shelly Moore Capito, who like Ford attended the all-girls Holten-Arms School, the vote is off for now pending the outcome of an additional hearing.  That hearing is scheduled to take place on Monday. Both Ford and Kavanaugh are expected to testify and be questioned under oath.  Kavanaugh spent nine hours at the White House yesterday strategizing with White House Counsel McGahn and bonding with Trump who probably likes him a little bit more than before now that he knows that in addition to believing that presidential power is all encompassing, he isn’t really much of a boy scout.  Kavanaugh continues to insist that he’s innocent.  He claims that he didn’t even attend the party where the alleged attack took place which is an odd assertion since Ford’s accusation doesn’t include any information about the exact location or specific date of the party.  As to Ford, more than 200 alumni of the Holten-Arms school, including actress Julia Louis Dreyfus have signed a letter of support backing her, their way of pushing back against the letter signed by the 65 women who purportedly knew Kavanaugh back when he was at the all-boys George Town Preparatory School.  As to those women, although they all signed their letter of support willingly, some of them were as young as four when Kavanaugh was in high school and, now that the name of the accuser and her accusation have been revealed, a majority of them have gone silent in part because of the details of the accusation and in part because she and her family are respected in their community.  Notably, though times have changed since Anita Hill got trashed for accusing Justice Clarence Thomas of sexual harassment, two members of the Judiciary Committee haven’t. Both Senators Grassley and Hatch participated in the Anita Hill hearings and neither seems to have changed with the times.  Yesterday Hatch who had dismissed Anita Hill’s accusations as “too contrived, too slick” said that Professor Ford is just confused and “mixed-up.” His comments aside, at this point it’s far from certain that Kavanaugh will make it onto the Supreme Court

The War Against Mueller:  Trump has gone largely silent on the flipping of his one time campaign manager Paul Manafort but he hasn’t given up on trying to damage the Mueller investigation.  To that end, late yesterday he announced that he was ordering the declassification of a number of documents related to the investigation.  Specifically he wants selective portions of the FISA warrant application on Carter Page and “all FBI reports” prepared in connection” with that warrant request released.  He also ordered the Justice Department to release all text messages related to the Russian investigation from former FBI Director James Comey, former Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, former FBI agent Peter Strzok, former FBI lawyer Lisa Page and current Justice Department official Bruce Ohr.  Trump’s order won’t result in the immediate release of the documents but initiates a process that could result in the information being released shortly assuming that the FBI and the Justice Department follow through on his order.  It’s quite possible that Trump hopes that they won’t because he may well be trying to force the document release to push Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and FBI Director Christopher Wray over the edge and out the door. Yesterday, Democratic Congressman Adam Schiff, the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, said that the two have previously told him that the release of the requested documents would involve the crossing of one of those “red lines.”  As to Manafort, the bigly problem that has pushed Trump to panic mode, apparently the Mueller team was pretty wily when they crafted his cooperation agreement.  They incorporated a number of provisions that would severely diminish the value of any future Trump pardon.

Other News:  The deaths and damage caused by Hurricane Florence continue to grow as have the troubles of FEMA Chief Brock Long. The investigation into his misdeeds have now been referred to federal prosecutors to determine whether criminal charges should be pursued.  And quietly, while all eyes were on Florence and the Kavanaugh mess, the Trump administration announced that it would limit the number of refugees admitted into the US during the next fiscal year to 30,000, the lowest number in more than 38 years.  At the same time, things appear to be heating up again in Syria, the tinder box that has produced a large number of those refugees.  Yesterday, the Syrians accidentally shot down a Russian fighter plane, something they and their Russian allies blame on the Israelis, who according to the Russians, were responsible for putting the Russian aircraft in the line of fire.  At the time the Israelis, together with the Brits and the French were targeting Syrian artillery positions.  Yikes.  

Manny and The Professor

Manny:  Paul Manafort, Trump’s one time campaign chairman has done the unthinkable, he has flipped. On Friday he pleaded guilty Friday to two felony conspiracy charges and reached an agreement to provide "complete cooperation" with special counsel Robert Mueller's probe of Russian interference in the 2016 election. He also pleaded guilty to the counts left over from his Virginia trial. By cooperating, Manafort, who appears to have given up on getting that elusive Trump pardon, hopes to reduce his prison time and obtain protection for his family.  His decision to join Team Mueller left Trump and spokes lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who against all logic claims that Manafort’s joint defense agreement with Trump is still in place, stunned, so much so that Giuliani retracted his initial statement, the one that said "Once again an investigation has concluded with a plea having nothing to do with President Trump or the Trump campaign. The reason: the President did nothing wrong and Paul Manafort will tell the truth” replacing it with one that left out the part about Manafort telling the truth because going forward Team Trump plans to insist that “convicted felon” Manafort is the world’s biggest liar.  As part of his plea, Manafort promises to tell the government about “his participation in and knowledge of all criminal activities,” including what he knows about the infamous Trump Tower meeting with Natalia Veselnitskaya and her team of Russian agents, decisions about Ukraine made at the Republican National Convention and a “host” of other behind-the-scenes discussions in the spring and summer of 2016.  Manafort also agreed to forfeit $22 million in New York properties to the government, including his house in Southampton and his apartment in Trump Tower, so that the Mueller investigation which has cost about $15 million to date could end up as a net contributor to the government coffers.  In an effort to diminish the value of Manafort’s flip, a number of Trump’s most ardent supporters continue to insist that he has nothing on Trump but does know a lot about some bad deeds committed by a number of Democrats, including John Podesta’s lobbyist brother Tony and the Clinton’s and their Foundation.  While some Democrats and a number of other lobbyists should be concerned, Trump and his family have more to be worried about because as frequent Trump defender Alan Dershowitz said over the weekend, Friday was a very bad day for Trump.  Not only did Manafort flip, but reports are that one time lawyer/fixer Michael Cohen has also started spilling his guts to Mueller’s team. After a brief twitter pause, Trump who is reported to be just a wee bit terrified about all of this went all out again on Mueller tweeting "While my (our) poll numbers are good, with the Economy being the best ever, if it weren’t for the Rigged Russian Witch Hunt, they would be 25 points higher! Highly conflicted Bob Mueller & the 17 Angry Democrats are using this Phony issue to hurt us in the Midterms. No Collusion!"  He also called the Russia investigation illegal. In between his Mueller attack tweets, Trump transferred some anger to Puerto Rico, by continuing his attack on all the recent reports which include dramatically higher Hurricane Maria death counts. He was so fixated on Puerto Rico, that he almost forgot to express his concerns for the victims of Hurricane Florence and his appreciation for the work being done by “his” team at FEMA.  As to FEMA, at least for now its head, Brock Long still has his job despite accusations that he has misspent millions of dollars inappropriately commandeering FEMA vehicles and staff members for his weekly trips back to his North Carolina home. Apparently, his boss, DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen considered firing him moments before Hurricane Florence hit but was convinced by cooler heads that axing the head of your emergency agency while hurricane winds were swirling was bad form.  For his part, Long is doing his best to secure his position.  Over the weekend in response to a question about the revised Puerto Rico mortalities he defended Trump on NBC’s Meet the Press calling the Puerto Rico studies “frustrating” because “You might see more deaths indirectly as time goes on... Spousal abuse goes through the roof. You can’t blame spousal abuse after a disaster on anyone.”  Trump was thrilled with that response.           

The Professor:  We still don’t know who wrote the NY Times Op-Ed excoriating Trump but now we do know the name of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s accuser.  She is Palo Alto University professor Christine Blasey Ford.  Professor Ford, who hoped to remain anonymous, decided to come forward after a number of reporters staked out her classes and residence.  In an interview with the Washington Post she said that Kavanaugh and his friend Mark Judge, who grew up to become a well-known conservative writer, pusher her into a room where Kavanaugh pinned her down and tried to force himself on her.  She added that Kavanaugh placed his hand over her mouth to silence her scream and that she feared for her life.  She managed to escape after an extremely inebriated Mark Judge jumped on both of them causing them to tumble out of control.  The assault  occurred while they were all attending an unchaperoned, alcohol infused party in the Maryland area not far from where the guys attended Georgetown Prep and Ford went to the Holten-Arms School.  At the time, she was 15, Kavanaugh was 17.  Ford says that she was traumatized by the experience and too afraid of their reaction to her drinking beer to tell her parents.  Though she didn’t tell anyone at the time, in 2012 she told both her husband and her therapist, who has notes describing her description of the assault.  She has passed a polygraph test administered by a former FBI agent. Last week Kavanaugh unequivocally denied that he had ever assaulted any woman and Mark Judge, who has written a book about his days as a teen age alcoholic and his tendency to black out when drunk, says he does not recall the incident which is fine since he might not be the best character witness anyway as his recently removed internet postings reveal that he continues to have an unhealthy obsession with teen age girls.  During the course of the confirmation hearings, Democrats accused Kavanaugh of lying about a number of legal issues, now they believe that he is also lying about the assault.  Until last night Republicans were all on Team Kavanaugh so much so that last week almost immediately after Senator Diane Feinstein revealed the existence of the then anonymous letter, Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley produced a list of 65 women from Kavanaugh’s high school days who all vouched for his character.  That such a list was available on such short notice and that Kavanaugh even knew 65 women when he was in high school seemed fairly odd at the time, now it looks even more peculiar.  The Judiciary Committee is due to vote Kavanaugh’s nomination out of committee on Thursday; Democrats want that vote postponed.  Yesterday evening Republican Senator Jeff Flake joined them, calling for the vote to be delayed until after Ford can be heard.  Later Senator Lindsey Graham, who is also on the committee said that “he would be open to hearing what Ford has to say,” even though he still questions the timing of her disclosure and is convinced the whole thing is just a big nothing burger. Senator Bob Corker, who is not on the committee and who like Flake is leaving the Senate at the end of the term, also called for a delay in the vote. Senator Grassley, who initially resisted doing anything in response to Ford’s accusations, says that he is now seeking to set up calls with both Kavanaugh and Ford to follow-up on the matter even though he still thinks it’s all bunk and questions Democrats’ timing and motives. To no one’s surprise on Sunday the White House reiterated Trump’s complete confidence in Kavanaugh because who cares if he assaulted anyone as long as he’s all in on presidential power and overturning Roe.  Late Sunday, the so-called moderate Senator Susan Collins who is supposed to care about women’s issues but seems to be really crushing on Kavanaugh said that “I’m going to be talking with my colleagues, but I really don’t have anything to add at this point, as I said. I did ask — I did read the letter last week and — and asked the judge in a telephone conversation on Friday about it, and he was very emphatic in his denial.” Of course she also believes in the Easter Bunny and that Kavanaugh will uphold Roe and is still waiting for Majority Leader McConnell to make that Obamacare subsidy fix that he promised her last year.  Late last night Senator Lisa Murkowski who is also supposed to care about Roe and women’s issues finally emerged from hiding to say that the Judiciary Committee might need to delay its vote to look into the Ford accusation.

Other News:  Cynthia Nixon, the Sex in the City star whose hopes of becoming governor of New York went down  faster than a commiseration Cosmopolitan cocktail, blamed her primary loss on large voter turnout.  Apparently her team had expected  that only the most liberal of voters would show up for last week’s NY primary, and holds the large number of mainstream Democrats who showed up and voted for NY Governor Cuomo responsible for her loss.  As to those voters, Democratic leadership is thrilled that they turned up in record numbers because, despite Nixon’s view, more Democratic voters, mean more Democratic wins come the November elections.  And those voters had better show up, last week at an event in Wisconsin, House Majority Leader Ryan told his crowd that if Republicans hold the House, they will take another run at Obamacare and will also do their best to slash Medicare benefits.   He went on to remind the crowd that with Senator McCain and his thumb gone, Senate Republicans now have the votes they need to finally  achieve that repeal and replace thing.   

Anita Hill's Revenge?

Cabeza Case:  Early yesterday morning, while people in the Carolinas were bracing for the onslaught of Hurricane Florence and state and FEMA officials were doing their best to plan for what will probably be a slow and difficult recovery, Trump proved once again that he can’t handle any criticism and that he totally lacks empathy.  He did that by sending out two lamebrain tweets about Puerto Rico, the first asserted that “3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico” because when he left the island, “AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths.”  He went on to claim that the increase in the death count was “done by the Democrats” in order to make him  “look as bad as possible.”  The 3000 figure, actually the 2975 figure, comes from a study undertaken by George Washington University’s School of Public Health on behalf of Puerto Rico’s governor.  GWU’s analysis concluded that there were 2975 deaths in Puerto Rico from September through February by comparing the deaths in Puerto Rico to the average death rate for previous years. In response to Trump’s tweet GWU released a statement saying that they “stand by the science underlying their study.” If anything the GWU figure understates the death count, researchers at Harvard peg the number at 4675. Response to Trump’s tweets came pouring in during the day.  Florida’s Republican Governor Rick Scott who needs every vote he can get in order to achieve his plans of joining the Senate by unseating Democratic Senator Bill Nelson in the November elections defended the estimate by quickly tweeting “I disagree with @POTUS– an independent study said thousands were lost and Gov. Rosselló agreed. I've been to Puerto Rico 7 times & saw devastation firsthand. The loss of any life is tragic; the extent of lives lost as a result of Maria is heart wrenching. I'll continue to help PR,” his way of saying shut up you ignoramus, I need the local Puerto Rican vote. Even Ron DeSantis, the Trump mini me running against Democrat Andrew Gillum for governor pushed back, his spokesperson said that he “doesn't believe any loss of life has been inflated,” notable because aside from issuing a dog whistle or two the fairly unqualified fDeSantis has been really busy scurrying to come up with a platform for his campaign.  Outgoing Speaker of the House Paul Ryan went with the island excuse, saying that he saw “no reason to dispute these numbers, those are just the facts about what happens when a hurricane hits an isolated place like an island.”  Trump golf buddy and foreign policy whisperer Senator Lindsey Graham was more forgiving.  He said that he didn’t really know about the number of deaths or how the 3000 figure was picked, since he’s been too busy coordinating golf schedules with Trump to review any of the studies.  Late last night, Trump doubled down on his criticism by sharing a Lou Dobbs tweet that alleged that “The Hurricane Maria death tolls have been inflated & President @realDonaldTrump was right to call out organizations who threw out science and statistics to try to discredit his administration” and  White House spokesman Hogan Gidley blamed the ” liberal media” and San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulin Cruz for trying to exploit the island’s devastation by “pushing out a constant stream of misinformation and false accusations.” Trump’s staff had hoped to stop him from spending any more air time attacking either Bob Woodward and his book or the Anonymous NY Times Op-Ed writer.  This wasn’t what they had in mine.  New Yorkers, who’ve known the Donald for years and who didn’t support his presidency, made it clear yesterday that they don’t want a celebrity Governor either, even if her politics come from the opposite side of the spectrum.  Current New York Governor Andrew Cuomo resoundingly defeated actress/activist Cynthia Nixon in the Democratic primary for Governor an indication that while Miranda might have been the most relatable Sex in the City character, she’s probably not governor material.  Letitia James, NYC’s current Public Advocate won a competitive race for the Democratic nomination for Attorney General, she beat out several candidates including the Nixon aligned progressive Zephyr Teachout.  To the extent that James defeats her Republican rival in November, and she probably will,  she will likely become an instant celebrity as she assumes responsibility for leading the New York State court assault against all things Trump.

KavanaughToo?:  Yesterday Senator Diane Feinstein, the senior Democrat on the Judiciary Committee disclosed that she had forwarded “information” about Brett Kavanaugh to the FBI.  Though she was vague about what that “information” is, reports are that it is a letter from a woman who has requested confidentiality about an alleged episode of sexual misconduct involving Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh that took place when they were in high school. The letter had been given to Feinstein by California Congresswoman Anna Eshoo who received it at some point during the summer. The moderate Feinstein, who is known for being quite measured in her actions, brought the letter to the attention of her Democratic colleagues on the Judiciary Committee and they jointly decided that it should be shared with the FBI.  The FBI has now forwarded it to the White House for inclusion in Kavanaugh’s vetting file.  The White House and Republican leadership responded by attacking the Democrats for making a scurrilous last ditch effort to destroy Kavanaugh’s nomination, going on to say that he’s been vetted many times and since the accusation never showed up then, it can’t possibly be relevant now.  That said, it’s highly likely that the FBI is following up and quite likely that Kavanaugh’s accuser will be pressured to come forward.  It’s not clear whether she will be Kavanaugh’s Anita Hill, but it’s worth noting that Hill initially requested confidentiality before the Justice Thomas confirmation hearings were reopened for her testimony.  Though her accusations, which look even more credible in today’s environment than they did years ago, were ultimately pushed aside when Thomas was voted onto the court, times have changed, or at least they’ve changed a little.  At the very least, Senators Murkowski and Collins, already facing pressure from their constituents, may find it very difficult to vote for Kavanaugh without first learning more about the accusations against him.  This could get very interesting.       

Other News:  Reports are that Manafort and his lawyers will announce that they’ve reached a plea agreement with Special Counsel Mueller as early as this morning.  It’s still not clear what that agreement will include and whether or not Manafort will be revealing anything that he knows about any Trump misdeeds.  In other news, the Times of London reports that former NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg, the real billionaire, is planning to run for president in 2020 as a Democrat.  The battle is on.