Big and Ugly ๐คฎ ๐คข ๐ฑ ✡️๐ป๐ฑ ๐คฎ ๐คข
The Bill ๐คฎ: The driving force behind Trump’s Big Ugly Budget Bill is the extension of the expiring tax cuts that Congress passed during Trump’s first administration. Those tax cuts mostly benefited the wealthy and increased the deficit but at least they left the social safety net intact. This time not so much, because to achieve their objective to extend those cuts, the drafters of the bill are taking a huge bite out of Medicaid, cutting funding for food stamps, and eliminating incentives for clean energy though they’ve managed to insert a few for coal, while further blowing up the deficit. The House version of the budget bill is bad, the Senate’s version is worse, especially for those who value health care and the environment, who believe that getting food into the mouths of the hungry is worthwhile, and who are concerned about the deficit, an issue that many House and Senate Republicans only care about when Democrats are in control. As it stands now, the Senate version of the bill cuts around $1 trillion ๐ฑ from Medicaid, makes large cuts in the scheme that funds hospitals, particularly rural hospitals, and increases the deficit by somewhere from $3.3 to $3.9 trillion. Anyone who thinks those Medicaid cuts won’t affect them should think again because Medicaid funds nursing home care and hospitals and when those institutions aren’t supported lots of people, even those with private insurance end up in health care deserts.
State of Play ๐คข: As in the House, with a slim majority, to extend the tax cuts Republican leadership had to balance the demands of its budget hawks, and the few members of its coalition who are, or at least pretend to be, concerned about the impact of the Medicaid cuts on their constituents and their state’s hospitals while also increasing spending on defense and “border” control. The Senate’s “solution” is a bill that cuts Medicaid even more than their House colleagues while further increasing the deficit. As bad as it is, the Senate’s version is still a work in process so it could get worse. Late Saturday, by a vote of 51 to 49, with Kentucky’s Rand Paul and North Carolina’s Thom Tillis joining all the Democrats in voting against it, the bill survived a procedural vote and is now being “debated” on the Senate floor. Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski voted to advance the bill after a provision benefiting hospitals in non-contiguous states (Alaska and Hawaii) was added but that provision has since been ruled ineligible for reconciliation by the House Parliamentarian so her vote may once again be in play. Maine’s Susan Collins, up for reelection in 2028, said that she was still up in the air about the bill but that she only voted for it to get it to the floor to be nice, in other words she’s doing her usual “I am concerned, pearl twisting” routine. Missouri’s Josh Hawley who spent the past few weeks whining about how the bill would hurt the Republican base including his constituents, and it will hurt them bigly, also voted for it. Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson, Utah’s Mike Lee, and Florida’s Rick Scott who all complained loudly about the bill not cutting enough voted for it too, but only after it incorporated provisions that further cut the economic incentives for clean energy. Scott, who before becoming a Senator headed a company that paid a $1.7 billion fine for committing Medicaid and Medicare fraud, isn’t done yet; he’s pushing for an amendment that will phase out Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion because kicking 11 million plus people off of insurance isn’t enough for him. Tillis, who was mercilessly tweet attacked by Trump and promised a primary for his vote against advancing the bill announced yesterday that he won’t be running for reelection in 2028 and that he remains a “no” on the bill. The Cook Political report has now moved the North Carolina Senate race to toss up, if the state’s former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper decides to run, it could soon be reclassified to lean Democrat. Rand Paul, who is used to being skewered and who unlike Tillis is not up for reelection during the 2028 cycle also remains a “no.” Trump and a number of Republicans are now threatening the Senate Parliamentarian over her rulings because as far as they are concerned it was okay when she made rulings that hampered Biden’s budget bill but ruling against Trump’s is beyond their pale. Though it’s not a given, with Trump twisting arms and making threats odds are the bill will pass through the Senate, after which it still has to be voted on again by the House where a few Republicans who should care about the Senate bill’s larger Medicaid cuts, bigger deficit and only temporarily increase in the SALT deduction will find it copacetic.
The Supremes: Every now and then it appears that Amy Coney Barrett has a conscience, on Friday she put that thought to rest. By a vote of six to three, she together with all her conservative colleagues, issued a ruling limiting the ability of federal judges to issue nationwide injunctions against government policies, specifically in the context of the case challenging Trump's executive order on birthright citizenship. This decision “effectively curtails the power of lower courts to halt the implementation of federal policies across the entire country in response to individual lawsuits,” though it may not apply to class action lawsuits. Since the case was focused on limiting judges from blocking policies, the decision did not address the issue of birthright citizenship which is expected to be addressed by the Court during its next term. In the meantime, the Court’s decision could lead to a “patchwork” of rules across the country, with some areas adhering to the challenged policy while others are shielded by the injunction. In the extreme, a baby born in NY to noncitizens could be a US citizen while a baby born in Texas would not be and who knows what would happen if that baby crossed state lines. At a time when we have a president issuing cockamamie (not a legal term, but you get the gist) orders which violate all sorts of rights and precedents, Judge Amy’s ruling is particularly problematic to put it mildly. The Court also said that it will opine on an important Louisiana redistricting/voting rights case next term, an ominous statement because it had been hoped that Louisiana’s redistricting drama had already been put to rest.
Foggier and Foggier: The intelligence about the impact of the US bombing on Iran’s nuclear sites keeps pouring in and obliterated seems more and more like the wrong term to use when describing it. The IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, said this weekend that in a manner of months Iran can have a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium” adding that Iran has the capacities, industrial and technological to do that. That’s a problem because the location of Iran’s uranium stockpile is still not known. The Washington Post reports that the US has obtained intercepted communication between senior Iranian officials discussing the strikes in which they are heard saying that the attack was less devastating than they had expected. The Post article is based on information provided by four sources who have access to that intelligence. Trump who is sticking with “obliterated” is irate that the information has entered the public domain and is both accusing the Post for lying and threatening them for “leaking” intelligence. Bezos may want to extend his honeymoon and why not, it’s not like burning cash matters to him. Trump also spent part of his weekend demanding that the ongoing corruption case against Israel’s Bibi Netanyahu be dropped, in his last tweet he threatened to stop aid to Israel if it isn’t. There’s nothing normal about the leader of one country interfering in another’s judicial system, but then again neither Trump nor Bibi is all that normal.
More: Thom Tillis isn’t the only Republican not running for reelection. Republican Congressman Don Bacon, who represents Omaha, Nebraska announced last week that he won’t be running in 2026. Bacon, who by Republican standards is a moderate, is another one having a difficult time balancing Trump’s demand with the needs of his increasingly competitive district. And lastly, New York’s likely Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani was all over the airwaves this weekend because apparently NYC is the center of the universe. Wake me up when he retracts his call to “globalize the intifada.”
#BringThemAllHomeNow