Elections, Trumpcare, and Meddling

Very Special Elections:  Though he performed well, the Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff couldn’t overcome a strong Republican turnout and a torrential downpour in the more Democratic sections of the Georgia six district.  Ossoff lost to Republican Karen Handel, who received 51.9% of the vote to his 48.1%. Though Handel won a ticket to Washington, her 3.8% margin of victory pales in comparison to former Congressman Mike Price’s 23% margin of victory in the 2016 congressional elections.  The Republican candidate also won the South Carolina special election, his victory was never in doubt but his 3.2% margin of victory was much smaller than expected and substantially less than former Congressman Mulvaney‘s 20% margin of victory in the 2016 election.  Despite all the hoopla and the Democrat’s hope that Ossoff would manage a win, neither of these districts were previously expected to be at risk.  Expect Republicans, especially Trump who spent yesterday morning tweeting support for Handel and attacking Ossoff, to be outwardly enthusiastic about the victories, but inwardly Republican leadership won’t be happy and a lot of Republican congressman from more likely swing districts are very concerned.  If the trend continues, any Republican who hasn’t previously won his or her seat by 20% or more will be facing serious headwinds in the 2018 mid-term elections.  Democrats are down but not yet out.

The Trumpcare Puzzle:  Senate Majority Leader McConnell is nothing if not tenacious.  He is pushing his version of Trumpcare forward towards a vote next week even though he still doesn’t have the fifty votes needed for passage. Though he is still making changes in an effort to pick up more votes from his right and moderate wings, he has already submitted a draft to the scorers at the Congressional Budget Office though no one else has seen it. Democrats are fuming and even a number of Republicans are complaining.  Senator McCain suggested that only the Russians know what’s in the current draft, Senator Lee sent his constituents a video complaining about the opaque process and at Tuesday’s press conference Spicer couldn’t even say if Trump, who called the House version of Trumpcare mean, has seen a copy.  McConnell plans to reveal his Trumpcare to the Senate or at least to Senate Republicans on Thursday.  Complicating his efforts to get to 50 votes, Elizabeth MacDonough, the Senate Parliamentarian still has to rule on portions of the bill.  Senate rules are somewhat arcane.  To avoid requiring an unattainable 60 vote supermajority, the Republicans plan to pass Trumpcare through the reconciliation process which is a budgetary tool that allows passage by a simple majority. The Parliamentarian will force McConnell to change certain Trumpcare provisions if she concludes that they effect policy more than cost and depending on her conclusions some Obamacare provisions may have to be put back into the Trumpcare legislation adding another wrinkle to McConnell’s efforts to get right wing support. The defunding of Planned Parenthood  and state waivers for essential services are among the provisions that MacDonough is evaluating.   

Russian Meddling:  Without stating that Trump had any involvement or that Russian hacking influenced the outcome of the election,  Connecticut Senator Blumenthal called the Russian interference an act of war and said that a bipartisan effort is essential to prevent future interference.  Nevertheless, Trump is back to refusing to even acknowledge that the Russians interfered in the election probably because he believes that any suggestion that there was Russian interference undermines the legitimacy of his electoral college victory and presidency.  At what may be one of his last press conferences, Spicer said that he doesn’t know whether Trump believes that there was any Russian meddling in the election because he’s never discussed it with him, another indication that Trump can’t bring himself to deal with the hacking attacks. Notwithstanding Trump’s refusal to discuss facts or face reality, Special Counsel Mueller is moving forward.  He met with the Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday to “deconflict” their investigations.  Mueller has also held meetings with the heads of the intelligence agencies, following up on their less than forthcoming testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee.  Last night the NY Times reported that CIA Director Mike Pompeo allowed former security adviser Mike Flynn to sit in on security briefings even though the CIA knew and Trump had been told by then Deputy Attorney General Yates that Flynn was a serious security risk; another thing for Mueller to look into.  As to Flynn, Rhode Island Senator Whitehouse told MSNBC that the former security adviser is probably already cooperating with the FBI and Mueller since “they have him dead to rights.” Attorney General Sessions may agree with Whitehouse. Sessions, who was purposely vague and obstructive during his recent Senate testimony, has now retained his own counsel in anticipation that he will be called in to talk with Mueller soon.

   

North Korea: Everyone agrees that college student Otto Warmbier’s treatment at the hands of the North Koreans and his resulting death is horrific.  Yesterday, Trump called it a total disgrace and blamed the “prior” administration for its failure to get Warmbier released sooner because if he had been president when Warmbier was taken hostage, he would still be alive.  Somehow or other, Trump managed to avoid mentioning the three other Americans still held hostage by the North Koreans or that Obama did manage to free ten other hostages during his tenure.  Trump did tweet thank the Chinese for all their help, saying that he greatly appreciates “the efforts of President Xi & China to help with North Korea,” even  “if it has not worked out.  At least China tried.” Obama tried too, by now Trump should know dealing with North Korea is complicated.