Yes Virginia, There is a Santa

Changing Tides:  It turns out that the Virginia Gubernatorial  election wasn’t a nail biter after all.  The election was called early with Ralph Northam, the Democratic candidate trouncing Ed Gillespie, the Republican contender, by nine points.  Voters in rural parts of the state, traditional Republican strongholds, voted for Gillespie but did not come out in large enough numbers to overcome the large turnout in traditionally Democratic urban and suburban areas.  Gillespie tried to take a page from the Trump book, painting Northam as a destroyer of Confederate monuments and a supporter of sanctuary cities who opposed Second Amendment gun rights.  Virginians didn’t buy into his hate narrative, polls indicated that they were much more focused on real issues like health care and, notably in the home of the NRA, they weren’t turned off by Northam’s call for “common sense” gun safety.  Democrats also won the Attorney General and Lt. Governor races and by gaining fourteen delegate seats,  came surprisingly close to flipping the very gerrymandered state legislature.  Virginia voters also elected Danica Roem, the first openly transgender state elected official.  She overwhelmingly beat Bob Marshall, a long term incumbent who bragged about being Virginia’s chief homophobe and who had sponsored one of those anti-transgender bathroom bills.  Trump, who had robocalled Virginia voters on Gillespie’s behalf in the morning,  took time out of his preparation for his important speech to South Korea’s National Assembly to tweet that Gillespie lost because “he did not embrace me or what I stand for.” He’s right, Gillespie didn’t embrace Trump nor did he accept Steve Bannon’s offer to campaign on his behalf, because he feared the impact that close association with their culture wars would have on his prospects in the more rational, educated parts of the state.  As expected, Phil Murphy the Democratic candidate for New Jersey Governor also won easily and voters in Maine went rogue, overwhelmingly voting to approve the Obamacare Medicaid expansion that their Republican governor, a Trump-like figure, had vetoed several times. In all, it wasn’t a good night for Trumpism but was a very good night for Democrats, maybe even a harbinger of things to come in the 2018 midterms.

Trump in Korea:  Trump’s official schedule called for him to avoid a visit to Korea’s Demilitarized Zone, something that he had earlier called a cliché, but he couldn’t resist the opportunity for a photo op in a cool flack-jacket so he tried to go. Unfortunately for him, his unscheduled visit which had probably been planned all along, was aborted due to bad weather.  He did make it to his scheduled speech to the South Korean Assembly but the usually prompt Trump was a little late starting because he needed a few extra minutes to prepare,  possibly because he had used up valuable time tweet smacking Virginia’s losing Republican candidate when he should have been practicing.  Once he showed up he talked about the Korean Peninsula’s tumultuous history and South Korea’s economic achievements contrasting them with the harsh living conditions in the North.  In typical Trumpian fashion he also lauded his own accomplishments, bragged about the US stock market, job growth, low unemployment rates and his Supreme Court pick to a baffled audience far more concerned about regional hostilities.  He had a few good things to say about South Korea as well, pointing out how their golfers had dominated the women’s championship at his Trump National Course in Bedminster, an inappropriate plug that would have been comical if it wasn’t so totally ill-timed.  The rest of his speech talked up America’s overwhelming military strength and dedication to the safety of South Korea.  He called for allies to stand strong in the face of threats from North Korea, asking Russia and China to step up to aid in further isolating the evil North Korean regime.  He speech was bellicose, but no more than usual, he did demand that North Korea give up their nuclear capability in exchange for peace, but he didn’t say anything dramatically new and, to the relief of his audience, didn’t threaten imminent war.  Hopefully, North Korea’s little rocket man, was listening carefully, wasn’t put off by Trump’s tone and will show some restraint of his own.  Security adviser McMaster and Secretary of State Tillerson were in the audience, accompanied by Jared Kushner, recently back from what may have been a conspiratorial weekend of meetings with Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi Arabia crown prince  who is in the process of imposing radical changes in his country by pulling power from religious leaders and detaining hundreds of opposing princes and “corrupt” businessmen.  Bin Salman is also threatening regional stability and may be coming close to an armed confrontation with Iran, one that could also embroil Israel.  Trump has voiced his support for bin Salman’s actions and may be encouraging that confrontation.

Russia, Russia, Russia:  A few more details have emerged from the transcript of campaign advisor Carter Page’s testimony to the House Intelligence Committee.  Page who appeared without any legal representation was both forthcoming and reticent, sometimes providing detailed answers and other times pleading the fifth. Before he went to Moscow where he met with Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Page was told by campaign official JD Gordon not to go on the trip.  Page went over Gordon’s head to someone more senior in the Trump campaign to receive travel authorization.  Attorney General Sessions, one of the campaign’s more senior people, is scheduled to meet with the House Judiciary Committee next week.  Though the purpose of his meeting is regular DOJ business, he should be ready to answer tough questions about what and when he knew about the Page meetings.  Though we don’t yet know what he said, Keith Schiller, Trump’s long term aid met with the House Intelligence Committee yesterday.  Trump is obviously not happy about any of this, so as part of his continuing effort to cast doubt on the Russian meddling and collusion narrative, he directed CIA Director Mike Pompeo to meet with William Binney, a long retired NSA official who is now a conspiracy crackpot who believes that the DNC emails were leaked not by the Russians, but by a disgruntled DNC staff person, a theory that one former CIA agent likens to suggestions that the Japanese didn’t really bomb Pearl Harbor. As CIA Director, Pompeo is supposed to be an honest arbiter of intelligence and should have shut Trump down on this one, but he’s another one of those complicit guys more concerned about his own career prospects than honoring the oath he took to keep the country safe.  Pompeo is also Trump’s likely replacement for the beleaguered Secretary of State Tillerson who is probably on his way out.  While Pompeo’s willingness to meet with Binney pleased his boss, it will probably cause him considerable grief if and when he goes through a Senate confirmation for the coveted Secretary of State position. In other international news, Syria, the last remaining hold out to the Paris climate agreement, signed on yesterday, leaving the US as the only country in opposition.

Silence Isn’t Enough:  The Texas shooter who wiped out half the people attending church in Texas had quite a checkered past, not only was he a convicted domestic abuser but he also once escaped from a mental health facility, another thing that might have prevented him from buying a gun if only mental instability was a disqualifying condition. Trump who earlier in the year rolled back a regulation making it harder for people with mental illnesses to buy firearms was too busy tweet smacking and trying to make it to the DMZ to comment on this hypocrisy.  Military leadership is now reviewing the Air Force’s failure to enter the shooter’s name into the FBI database that would have prevented him from buying firearms. California Congressman Lieu has had it with his colleagues failure to act on gun legislation.  Yesterday, he walked out of the House of Representatives during a moment of silence for the Texas victims, saying that though he respects his colleagues “right to do that and I myself have participated in many of them.  But I can’t do this again.  I’ve been to too many moments of silence …. I will not be silent.  What we need is action, we need to pass gun safety legislation now.”

Tax Notes:  Though the details remain fuzzy, in all likelihood the violent takedown of Rand Paul by his neighbor had nothing to do with politics but a lot to do with lawn care.  Apparently, after years of frustration with Paul’s less than pristine gardening habits and his increasingly smelly mulch, his neighbor Rene Boucher snapped.  The Senate is expected to release their version of tax reform on Thursday.  To comply with Senate rules that demand adherence to the Budget Plan’s $1.5 trillion limit on increasing the deficit, the Senate bill is expected to differ significantly from the House plan and could call for the phasing in of Trump’s planned corporate tax cuts; the total elimination of state and local tax deductions including property taxes; adjusting individual tax brackets so that higher-income households that earn less than $1 million fall into the top 39.6% rate; retaining some type of estate tax; and, or the repealing of parts of Obamacare.  Whatever the Senate decides, Senator Paul will miss the rollout, he will be home healing from his serious mulch inspired wounds.   As to Obamacare, enrollment started on November 1 and contrary to Trump and the Republican’s dire predictions and best efforts to kill the program, early enrollment is up dramatically.