Taxing Obstructions

Tax Glitch:  Yesterday it looked like the Senate tax plan was steaming ahead to inevitable passage. One by one key senators made it clear that they would vote “yes.”  Even Senator McCain, the one-time maverick, announced his support, proving that his principled “no” vote on the Obamacare repeal was nothing more than an anomaly.  However, last night progress halted after the non-partisan Joint Committee on Taxation announced that their analysis, which incorporated the boost that tax cuts would have on economic growth, showed that the tax plan would fall well short of covering its $1.5 trillion cost.  They projected a $1 trillion deficit increase.  Republicans were left gasping and searching for excuses when the Joint Committee analysis failed to reach their desired conclusion because the Joint Committee had used  the “dynamic scoring” method touted by Republican leadership.  Already concerned that the tax reform plan would throw the deficit irreparably out of whack, Senators Corker and Flake had requested a trigger provision to provide for automatic tax increases if, more likely, when the deficit exploded. After the release of the “bad report” and after the Senate parliamentarian ruled against the inclusion of the trigger, plans to proceed  to a “vote a rama,” the step before a final vote on the plan, were put on hold when it became clear to Majority Leader McConnell that without the support of his deficit hawks and with Senator Collins still in the maybe column he didn’t have the votes he needed.  A number of frantic Senators together with their tax-writing gremlins spent last night trying to gin up another $500 billion of revenues, an amount that the deficit hawks said that they could live with. Among the sources under consideration are the reinstatement of  the dreaded alternative minimum tax and an increase in the corporate rate, options not expected to go over well with Trump or his bosses, the Koch Brothers.  McConnell plans to reconvene the Senate at 11 AM, by then we should know if his number crunchers have made any progress.  Republican leaders had also been relying on another report that had been touted by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, the one that he had repeatedly claimed was being worked on by one hundred of his Treasury elves.  He’d also claimed that his analysis would prove that the tax plan would be a huge engine of growth. That analysis never materialized either because he doesn’t have any elves, it doesn’t exist or because its conclusions were even worse than those of the Joint Committee on Taxation.  Yesterday the Treasury Department Inspector General opened an investigation into whether Mnuchin is refusing to release his promised analysis because the results suck or because it never existed in the first place.  Tax reform is complicated.          

Cabinet Shuffle: Secretary Tillerson’s days at the State Department are numbered.  When asked about his career longevity, Sarah Huckabee Sanders responded that when Trump “loses confidence in someone they will no longer serve in the capacity they are in,” her way of saying that she wouldn’t bet on him being around much longer.  Despite assurances from Chief of Staff Kelly who still asserts that Tillerson is isn’t going anywhere, expectations are that Trump plans to replace him by year end with his trusted, partisan CIA Director Mike Pompeo, Pompeo’s CIA position would then be filled by Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton.  Trump has grown very fond of Cotton because of their shared interest in banning all future immigration.  Cotton also shares Trump’s view that the investigation into Russian meddling is just a bunch of bunk, making him a fine candidate to run an intelligence agency that is supposed to prepare unbiased intelligence.  On a more positive note, one that can’t be making Trump very happy, his recently appointed FBI Director, Christopher Wray, is taking Russian election interference seriously, Wray quietly set up a foreign influence task force to protect election integrity and to deal with interference by outside actors because he “takes any effort to interfere with our election system by Russia or any other nation state or non-nation state seriously because it strikes right at the heart of who we are as a country.”  Reports are that Trump chose Wray as his FBI director on a whim after he grew tired of interviewing candidates, he may be regretting that decision. If and when CIA Director Pompeo takes over at State, he will have his work cut out for him.  Outrage about Trump’s retweets from the anti-Muslim Britain First group has left the State Department so concerned that they have put US embassies in Muslim countries on alert for possible retaliatory violence.  Politicians in the UK  are also upset, one called Trump “racist, incompetent, unthinking or all three”  and several have called for the Queen to rescind her invitation to Trump for an official state visit.  Late yesterday the White House preempted the possibility of a snub by announcing that Trump’s January visit to London has been postponed because it interferes with his golf schedule.    

Obstruction Anyone:  Last night the New York Times reported that Trump repeatedly pressed top Republicans, including Senator Burr the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Majority Leader  McConnell, and Missouri Senator Blunt another member of the Intel Committee, to end the Senate Russia inquiry. Burr said that he told Trump that “when we have exhausted everyone we need to talk to we will be finished.”  The others said Trump’s interference wasn’t such a bigly deal but Democratic Senator Feinstein disagreed, she called it “inappropriate” and a “breach of the separation of powers.” Special Counsel Mueller may call it more proof that Trump was attempting to obstruct justice.  Attorney General Sessions, another expert at obstruction, testified yesterday at still another closed door session of the House Intelligence Committee.  Ranking Member Adam Schiff was pretty distressed by Session’s lack of cooperation, after the meeting he told reporters that though Sessions didn’t explicitly assert executive privilege, he refused to answer when he was asked if Trump had ever asked him to stop the Russia inquiry, leaving the committee with the distinct impression that, like the senators, he’d been asked.    

Men Still Behaving Badly:  Democratic Congressman John Conyers has been admitted to a Michigan hospital where he is being treated for stress, a not too surprising reaction to the increased focus on the growing list of women accusing him of harassment.  Democratic leaders, including Minority Leader Pelosi, are now calling for him to step down.  Republican Congressman Joe Barton, who had shared a few nude pictures of himself with a number of the women  he dated when he was separated from his wife, has announced that he will not be seeking reelection in 2018.   Senator Al Franken’s list of accusers has grown to include an army veteran who says he groped her during a 2003 USO tour, the Senate has already begun their ethics investigation into his actions.  The Washington Post has finished its investigation into allegations against Garrison Keillor, they’ve ended their relationship, sending him back to the prairie.  Child molester Roy Moore, Alabama’s favorite son, blames the accusations against him on gays, lesbians, socialists, and transgenders who are all trying to change “our way of life.”  For what it’s worth polls in Alabama appear to be tightening, a pro-Trump group now shows his lead over his Democratic opponent Doug Jones, down to 1 point.