Winds of Trade Wars

Trade Winds:  Late yesterday while most were focusing on the shooting on the YouTube corporate campus, a shooting that despite initial reports was not related to a personal or domestic dispute but may have been caused by the female shooter’s fury over her perception that YouTube had unfairly handled her videos, Trump levied more tariffs, this time hitting $50 billion in Chinese electronics, aerospace and machinery products.  Overnight China responded to Trump’s latest move by announcing tariffs on 106 US products including soybeans, airplanes and cars.  Stock futures are down, the markets are in for another bumpy ride.  Farmers aren’t any happier, soybeans are the top US agricultural export to China, there’s no question that the Chinese added soybeans to the list in an attempt to hit Trump hard in the states that matter most to him and the increasingly vulnerable Republican members of Congress.  In addition to escalating the trade war, Trump continues to attack Amazon.  Yesterday he tweeted  “I am right about Amazon costing the United States Post Office massive amounts of money for being their Delivery Boy. Amazon should pay these costs (plus) and not have them bourne by the American Taxpayer. Many billions of dollars. P.O. leaders don’t have a clue (or do they?)!”.  Not surprisingly his tweet is inaccurate so much so that two Fox News correspondents responded by calling him out.  Shepard Smith reported that “The Postal Service’s own numbers show it makes money by delivering packages for Amazon and other companies” and John Roberts, Fox’s Washington correspondent added that ““This can be boiled into very simple terms.  This is personal, and it’s between the president and Jeff Bezos, the guy who created Amazon who also now owns The Washington Post.”  Even the Republican friendly Chamber of Commerce isn’t happy with Trump’s Amazon attacks.  Neil Bradley, its EVP and chief policy office weighed in by saying “It’s inappropriate for government officials to use their position to attack an American company.”

The Pruitt Problem:  Though he continues to effectively implement Trump’s anti-environment, anti-regulation agenda, Scott Pruitt is skating on some of that increasingly thin ice.  Yesterday it was revealed that after his efforts to obtain large salary increases for two of the staff members that he brought with him to the EPA from Oklahoma were rebuffed by the White House, he went ahead and increased their salaries anyway by employing an obscure provision of the  Safe Drinking Act, a provision that allowed him to circumvent usual hiring and salary practices.  At the same time it was revealed that his sub market rate living arrangement was even more problematic than initially reported.  Apparently the townhouse that he lived in for a while for that enviable $50 a night rate doubled as a reception “hall” for lobbyist events, a great bargain for the lobbyists who managed to get even more time with Pruitt whenever they attended a party at his home away from home.  Yesterday, Sarah Huckabee Sanders reported that Pruitt had received calls of support from both Trump and Chief of Staff Kelly, however it was also reported that Kelly told Pruitt to clean up his act and Trump, who told Pruitt on the call that he had his back, expressed only lukewarm support when asked about Pruitt’s shenanigans at the end of a Baltic State Press Conference. Pruitt and his supporters say that all of the criticisms are just a Democratic plot to unseat him, plot or not, he’s providing them with a lot of ammunition.  

Russia, Russia, Russia:  Good news for Trump if you believe that only being the subject as opposed to the target of an investigation is a good thing. Last night the Washington Post reported that Special Counsel Mueller told Trump’s lawyers that though he is continuing to investigate Trump, he does not consider Trump to be a criminal target, at this point. The WaPo article goes on to say that “prosecutors view someone as a subject when that person has engaged in conduct that is under investigation but there is not sufficient evidence to bring charges.” A number of former federal prosecutors point out that the line between being a subject and a target is very, very thin and easily crossed.  Mueller’s team is still pursuing an interview with Trump, such an interview would provide the not always all that truthful Trump with the opportunity to cross that line.  Notably Trump’s former lawyer John Dowd, the one who recently quit, advised against Trump granting an interview because of his concern that Trump would trip over the line.  Trump wants to go forward, and his current lead lawyer, Jay Sekulow, thinks that it would be the politically wise thing to do.   During their conversations Mueller’s team also indicated that they are considering writing reports on their findings in stages, with the first report “focused on the obstruction issue.” To the extent they go public, those reports will make for some very interesting reading.  Also on the Russian front, yesterday Alex van der Zwaan, the Dutch former Skadden Arps lawyer was sentenced to 30 days in jail and received a $20,000 fine for lying and destroying evidence. Upon his release he will be deported back to Europe. Neither Trump nor Putin had anything to say about the Van der Zwaan sentencing, but Putin continues to deny that the Russians had anything to do with the poisoning of ex-Spy Skripal and his daughter.  He’s called for an emergency meeting of the Organization for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons to press his case that the Brits are just making “nothing but assumptions” none of which “stem from objective facts.”  Putin is very good at making ludicrous denials with a straight face.  Yesterday during his Baltic State press conference Trump reminded everyone that no one has ever been tougher on the Russians than he has, ever, he was less convincing.

International Affairs:  Having achieved his goals in the war against ISIS, Trump doubled down on his earlier announcement to the kids at the White House Egg Roll that he’s ready to withdraw US troops from Syria by repeating his remarks yesterday to the adults in the room during the brief Q and A that followed his tete-a-tete with the leaders of the Baltic trio, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Trump also announced that he wants to send the military to the Mexico border to stop the so-called marauding hordes coming up from Honduras.  Neither the Defense Department nor the State Department are all that happy with either of Trump’s plans.  Secretary Mattis wants to keep a military presence in Syria and has no plans to send Marines to the Mexican border.  Trump met with Mattis to discuss his Mexico border plans and was told that for a variety of reasons, legal and diplomatic, the Marines and Army were not available or suitable for border duty, at best he can assign some National Guard troops, something that has been done in the past, and that he probably will do because he is desperate to show Sean Hannity, Ann Coulter, their likeminded cronies and his most anti-immigrant supporters that even if he can’t build a wall, he can do something.    

Election Update:  Yesterday a progressive judge won a special election in Wisconsin defeating her conservative opponent.  Republicans claim that her victory didn’t mean much because it was snowing and not many people showed up but don’t be fooled, they aren’t all that happy.  Wisconsin Governor Walker has been trying to put off two other special elections by arguing that such elections are just too costly, especially when their outcomes are unlikely to go his way.  The courts have rebuffed Walker’s plans, those elections are expected to move forward despite his objections.  Though he’s still expected to run for reelection, Wisconsin Congressman and Speaker of the House Paul Ryan still hasn’t formally announced his plans.