That Horrible Deal

Unwinding Obama:  He said all along that he would do it and so he did.  Trump went hardline, pulling the US out of “the horrible, one sided deal,” a deal made worse because it was negotiated by and viewed as a major accomplishment of his predecessor, Obama.  His dislike for the deal, like his dislike for the Paris Climate accords and Obamacare, has been clear from day one so his action wasn’t really a surprise.  Still, optimists had hoped that pleas from French, UK and German leaders would have convinced Trump to temper his worst instincts by opting for further negotiations in lieu of an abrupt pullout.  Trump’s criticisms of the deal aren’t all wrong, it was flawed in that it had a defined end date, did not address  and therefore did not solve the problem of Iran’s regional aggression and hadn’t stopped its ballistic missile program.  That said, the Iranians were sticking to the deal’s terms and according to inspectors and the US military and intelligence had stopped advancing their nuclear program. In making his decision, Trump resisted the recommendations of his well respected Defense Secretary Mattis who has consistently said that staying in the deal while pressing for separate negotiations to lengthen its term and to address Iran’s bad behavior was the more prudent option.  Surprisingly, given his history of opposing the deal, newly appointed Secretary of State Pompeo also argued for Trump to delay pulling out, he wanted to give negotiators in Europe more time to see if they could get Iran to agree to additional restrictions. He’s now had his first policy fail.  Not so surprising, national security advisor Bolton was fully on board with Trump’s decision.  Bolton, an avowed Neocon who still believes that the war in Iraq was a good thing, is all in on regime change and he, like Trump, believes that pulling US support from the deal makes regime change in Iran more likely and if that means war so be it.  The Saudis who view Iran as their biggest regional rival are happy with Trump’s decision and have promised to do their best to stabilize oil markets as necessary.  The picture in Israel is a little more complex.  Prime Minister Netanyahu has been an outspoken critic of the deal and has used his bully pulpit to speak against it whenever possible, however, Israeli military and intelligence officials mostly disagree, they don’t trust Iran but believe that the  deal was the best way to push off Iran’s nuclear aspirations.  Hardliners in Iran feel vindicated, they never trusted US intentions in the first place.  At least for now Iran is saying that they will stick to the deal while assessing the impact of the US pullout and the re-imposition of “harsh” sanctions, something that is supposed to take place over the next six months, on their economic aspirations.  They are expected to try to work with the other deal participants to blunt the impact of US withdrawal, turning their focus to Russia and China, something that further isolates and diminishes the US world role.  As to that other nuclear player, North Korea, parts of Trump’s speech seemed intended to warn Kim Jong Un that he better take Trump’s denuclearization objectives seriously during the upcoming summit or else, a message that might not work all that well with a country that already has nukes. During his speech Trump also revealed that Pompeo was on his way to North Korea to further pre-summit discussions.  Expectations are that Pompeo will have some traveling partners for his return trip, he’s hoping to bring home the three captive Americans.  Obama, who has remained largely silent during Trump’s term called out Trump’s actions saying that they erode credibility, putting the US at odds with other world partners and powers. He emphasized that the deal “was never intended to solve all of our problems with Iran,” and warned that undermining it despite no clear evidence of Iranian violations could hasten an arms race or outright regional conflict.  Former CIA director Brennan was even more direct, he said  “Trump’s madness is a danger to our national security.” John Kerry, who had been trying a little backdoor diplomacy of his own was wistful and apoplectic at the same time something that shouldn’t even be humanly possible.

Catastrophe Cohen:  Yesterday’s news cycle should have been completely dominated by Trump’s Iran agreement withdrawal and it almost was but then Stormy Daniel’s lawyer Michael Avenatti tweeted out a claim that Trump’s fixer/lawyer Michael Cohen had received $500,000 from a company controlled by a Russian oligarch named Viktor Vekselberg and that the funds had been deposited into an account for Essential Consultants, the company that was also used to make the Stormy hush payment. Avenatti, also detailed other transactions he said were suspicious, including $400,000 from drug giant Novartis,  $150,000 from the state-run Korea Aerospace Industries, and $200,000 from AT&T.  Avenotti’s assertions were validated when ATT, who has been fighting with Trump over its acquisition of Time Warner confirmed that it had paid Cohen's “company” for "insights" into the Trump administration.  Novartis also confirmed that they had made $400,000 in payments to Cohen, saying that they were for “health care policy matters” and that they really didn’t count since they were authorized by prior management.  All in all more than $4 million flowed through the Essential Consultant accounts during the period shortly before the 2016 election and up to January of this year.  In all likelihood Cohen, who is not a registered lobbyist, was engaging in a little influence peddling, selling his access and connections to Trump to the highest bidders. All the payments are questionable but the ones from Vekselberg, one of Putin’s cronies, is probably the bigliest problem for fairly obvious reasons. Vekselberg, a Putin crony who is now on the list of sanctioned Russians, attended Trump’s inauguration and has already been interviewed by Special Counsel Mueller, an interview that took place after Mueller’s guys pulled Vekselberg off of his plane during his last visit to the US. Vekselberg’s payment was made through a US investment firm owned by one of his relatives so it might have been technically legal but it is certainly questionable.  It’s not clear how Avenatti obtained this information, but virtually all of the major news outlets have now confirmed its validity so it does appear to be accurate.  Suffice it to say that the pressure on Cohen to talk is mounting by the minute and apparently he has a lot to talk about.

Election Update:  Convicted criminal Don Blankenship’s hopes of becoming the Republican candidate for West Virginia Senator went up in smoke yesterday after he lost his primary bid to run against the incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, instead Manchin will face off against West Virginia’s Attorney General Morrisey.  It turns out that not enough voters were impressed with Blankenship’s strategy of calling Mitch McConnell cocaine Mitch and attacking his father in law as a China person and it certainly didn’t help that Trump weighed in at the end telling voters to vote for anyone but Blankenship.  At this point, despite Trump’s overwhelming victory in the state, the relatively popular Manchin is still the frontrunner, at least for now.  In a trend that could bode well for Democrats, their moderate candidates beat out more progressive rivals.  In Ohio the former Consumer Financial Bureau head Richard Cordray overwhelming beat the more left wing Dennis Kucinich despite his Berniac support.  Cordray will face Republican Mike DeWine for the governorship left open by the term limit forced departure of Ohio’s current Governor John Kasich.  DeWine aligned himself with Trump’s policies and has promised to pull Ohio out of the Medicaid expansion program something that wouldn’t be good for Ohio’s residents but then again we have learned the hard way that there are a lot of voters out there who vote against their own interests so there is no telling how this election will turn out.  There was one notable upset in North Carolina where the Charlotte area incumbent Republican, Congressman Robert Pittenger, was defeated by former Pastor Mark Harris.  Pittenger’s loss makes the district  a better target for Democrats in November since it is generally easier to beat a nonincumbent candidate.  And so it goes.