Right Before Our Eyes 

New Normal:  Yesterday was just another day in Trumpland, one that started with an outrageous Trump tweet, one that was quickly followed by expressions of  outrage from Democrats, big whatevers from Republicans some of whom were more concerned than they let on, and capped by a pullback from Trump lawyers  Rudy Giuliani and Jay Sekulow.  The questionable Trump tweet called again for the end of the Mueller investigation, or as Trump likes to call it the witch hunt saying  “This is a terrible situation and Attorney General Jeff Sessions should stop this Rigged Witch Hunt right now, before it continues to stain our country any further, Bob Mueller is totally conflicted, and his 17 Angry Democrats that are doing his dirty work are a disgrace to USA!”  Though the tweet was a variation on many of the things he’s said and tweeted before it felt more hostile mostly because it was.  As to Sessions, by now everyone, including Trump should know that he’s recused and is in no position to end the investigation, but Sessions is Trump’s favorite whipping boy and the NY Times’ Trump whisperer Maggie Haberman reports that Trump continues to rant about his betrayal daily.  Haberman also reports that the Virginia Manafort trial combined with concerns about what Michael Cohen is planning to tell investigators is spinning Trump further out of control.  Upon seeing the tweet, Connecticut’s Senator Blumenthal, a Democrat and a former prosecutor said “It seems even more vivid and serious evidence of criminal intent to obstruct justice – whether it is obstruction itself or not, it certainly indicated intent. There is now highly credibly evidence that the president of the United States is committing obstruction of justice in real time, right before our eyes.”  The mild mannered Maine Republican Senator Collins said it “was entirely inappropriate and intemperate” for Trump to make such a request of Sessions.  As to the Trump lawyers, Rudy Giuliani reached deep into his bag of verbal garbage to jump to Trump’s defense saying the “attempt to claim obstruction by tweet is really a bizarre and novel theory. It's an attempt to infringe of his (Trump’s) First Amendment right and ability to communicate with the American people” and Jay Sekulow, Trump’s other lawyer uttered something along the lines of haven’t you been listening, Trump’s been saying stuff like this for months, what’s the bigly deal?  And Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders just said that Trump’s tweet didn’t matter because it was an “opinion” not an “order.”  As to Trump’s frustration, Haberman also reports that despite his lawyers warnings that he shouldn’t sit down with Special Counsel Mueller, he really wants to because he believes that he and he only will be able to convince Mueller that he’s done nothing wrong.  Mueller has thrown another offer his way, this one, like the SATs would involve both a written and oral sections, only they would both count.  Nevertheless with his lawyers pushing back and virtually every commentator from both sides of the ideological aisle convinced that a Trump – Mueller sit down would be a disaster for Trump, it remains hard to believe that details satisfactory to both sides will get ever get worked out in the absence of a subpoena.  Then again, Trump frequently overrides advice, he went ahead with his Putin tete-a-tete and look how well that turned out.

Manafort Mess: The Virginia court is living up to its reputation as the rocket docket.  Under the iron fisted guidance of no nonsense Judge Ellis who has banned the use of the word oligarch as too inflammatory and has limited the number of pictures from Manafort’s closet that prosecutors can show the jury because being rich and having fancy duds is not a crime, Manafort’s case is proceeding quickly with prosecutors now reporting that they will be able to finish up in two weeks, one week shorter than originally planned.  The Virginia case against Manafort is about bank and tax fraud rather than Russian collusion.  To that end, Mueller’s team of prosecutors has been doing their best to document Manafort’s extravagant expenditures, showing the jury his expensive wardrobe, he spent more than $900,000 at the high end Alan Couture atelier, whatever that is, between 2010 and 2014, a tidy sum to say the least.   He also spent a small fortune on landscaping, Mercedes cars and home remodeling at his various houses, all of which was paid for by wires from overseas banks known for their money laundering skills.  The prosecutors have also pointed out that some of the receipts documenting his expenditures appear to have been doctored.  Today we are likely to hear more about that from the accountants and bank officials who were granted immunity in order to secure their testimony.  Manafort’s lawyers continue to assert that Manafort associate Rick Gates, who according to Mueller’s team may not be called to testify, is the real villain here, not Manafort.   While asserting that he never would have hired Manafort in the first place to be his “campaign manager for a minute” if someone from the Obama administration had told him that he was under investigation, Trump also attacked the treatment that poor Manafort is being forced to endure, comparing it to Al Capone’s experience, tweeting “Looking back on history, who was treated worse, Alfonse Capone, legendary mob boss, killer and “Public Enemy Number One,” or Paul Manafort, political operative & Reagan/Dole darling, now serving solitary confinement - although convicted of nothing? Where is the Russian Collusion?”  Note to Trump, comparing Manafort to Al Capone doesn’t do him any favors.  But a pardon, that might do it, clearly that’s what Manafort is hoping for and what Trump is working himself up to.     

Taxes and Shutdown Threats:  Trump continues to talk about shutting down the government, only now, having been warned by Republican leadership that a shutdown in the run up to the elections would not be a good thing and would increase the odds of Democrats Adam Schiff becoming Chair of the House Intelligence Committee and Jerome Nadler becoming the Chair of the House Judiciary Committee, he’s seems to be deferring his shutdown plans to November, after the election.   As to taxes, though as reported by Bloomberg, the government’s “borrowing needs in the second half of this year will jump to the most since the financial crisis a decade ago as the nation’s fiscal health deteriorates despite a strong economy largely due to a shortfall in revenues” to a large degree due to the passage of the tax reform plan, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is considering a plan to cut taxes by another $100 billion this time by reducing capital gains taxes.  Under Trump’s direction, he’s studying whether Treasury could use its regulatory powers to let us all consider inflation in calculating capital gains tax liabilities. Under the plan the Treasury Department would change the definition of “cost” for calculating capital gains, allowing taxpayers to adjust the initial value of an asset, such as a home or a share of stock, for inflation.  Sidestepping Congress to further reduce taxes on higher income people, probably not the best plan in the run up to an election but then again some of those billionaire donors and a few more of those middle of the road Republicans in the purple suburbs might be more willing to ignore Russian canoodling, separated kids and things like Jeff Sessions’ new religious task force in exchange for a few billion in tax savings.  In any case, to the extent that you have any assets with embedded large capital gains, don’t change your hold or sell plans just yet, this scheme is legally questionable and isn’t likely to be implemented any time soon.