Sliding Doors

Twenty Seven:  That’s the number of days until the November midterm elections. Nate Silver’s Five Thirty Eight prognosticators forecast that there is a seven in nine chance that the Democrats will take over control of the House but only a one in five chance that they will gain control of the Senate, a view that is consistent with recent polls that indicate a shift towards Republican senatorial candidates.  Some of that shift may be transitory, attributable to the “Kavanaugh” effect, and may start to fade as other stories make it to the front of the news cycle.  That said, Trump is doing his best to capitalize on his Supreme Court win, he’s campaigning furiously and his current theme is that Democrats and only Democrats are extreme, lawless, and dangerous. To that end his crowds are again going with the lock her up chant only this time their target is Senator Diane Feinstein.  Trump’s talking points are also being pushed by Republican leadership including Majority leader Mitch McConnell and gadfly Senator Rand Paul who says that he fears that if the radical Democrats continue their “paid” protests someone will get badly hurt or killed.  Apparently, Senator Paul has forgotten that someone named Heather Heyer was already killed, not by Democrats but by right wing marchers in Charlottesville.  Though Trump insists that talks of a House blue wave are overstated, others in the White House are growing increasingly concerned, so much so that Axios reports that Chief of Staff Kelly recently formed a working group to start preparing for the possibility that the Democrats will take over the House and will initiate investigations into all of those things that Republican leadership have been doing their best to ignore.  To that end he’s scheduled an offsite weekend retreat for senior White House scheduled to take place later this month.  One chief concern is that the White House legal team is understaffed and lacks the experience to take on what will likely be an onslaught of document requests.  Though the Republicans are likely to retain control of the Senate, Senate Judiciary Chairman Grassley says that despite Majority Leader McConnell’s statement that he would move forward with another Supreme Court nominee if an opening came up, Grassley would not.  He says that he promised in 2016 that he would apply the same standard to Republican nominees that he applied to Obama’s nominee Merrick Garland.  Surprisingly Senator Lindsey Graham, who may or may not stay in the Senate, says that he agrees with Grassley and that if he were ever lucky enough to become chair of the Judiciary Committee that he would apply the same standard. As to the Supreme Court, late yesterday the Court temporarily blocked lower court orders for depositions by two senior Trump administration officials, including Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, in the multiple lawsuits over the new question about US citizenship status on the 2020 census. Lawyers for a number of states and civil rights groups want to depose Ross to determine if the question was added to the census chiefly to discourage participation by undocumented immigrants, which of course is the reason that the question was added.    

Revolving Door: That someone important is leaving the administration this week isn’t all that surprising. What is surprising is that the person jumping ship isn’t Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein but is instead UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and that she appears to be leaving of her own volition. Although Trump insists that he’s known for more than six months that Haley would leave by year end, her departure is a surprise and few are buying his claim. Haley is sticking with the same party line, that she’s had a great time at the UN, has accomplished all her goals and that it’s time for her to move on.  There are a few theories about her decision to leave now, right before the midterm elections. Some suggest that Haley, a shrewd politician with plans to run for president someday, is protective of her own brand, wants to distant herself from the outcome of the midterms and had lost out in a power struggle with national security advisor Bolton and Secretary of State Pompeo. Others, anticipating that South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham will replace Attorney General Sessions after the midterms, believe that she is positioning herself to grab his Senate seat, a real possibility but one that depends on Graham actually moving over to the Attorney General spot, something he insists isn’t going to happen.  Still others say that Haley, one of the few members of Trump’s administration who isn’t independently wealthy needs to make some money in order to pay for her kids’ college tuitions and that a lucrative speaking tour beckons, one that will also position her well for a future presidential run.  Then there is outgoing  Congressman Mark Sanford, the guy who like Haley was once the governor of South Carolina before he got caught canoodling with a paramour when he claimed to be hiking the Appalachian trail.  He says that Haley is leaving now to get a head of an ethics investigation into her inappropriate acceptance of free airplane flights from rich Republican donors. As to Rod Rosenstein, Trump now reports that the two have rekindled their friendship and that he will be staying around, at least until after the midterms.  One more thing, it turns out that there is a little more to Hope Hicks’ decision to join Fox.  Apparently the one time Trump gal Friday was having a hard time finding a suitable position because being a former member of the Trump White House has turned into a hindrance for jobseekers.  Ivanka and Jared jumped to Hope’s rescue and intervened with the Murdoch’s to help Hope out.  Hick’s new job takes her to Los Angeles where she hopes to get away from the prying eyes of the paparazzi who have been following her around New York, filming her Central Park jogs with once (and future?) wife abuser Rob Porter, another former Trumpster who is having a hard time finding a new job.                   

Death’s Door:  Turkey has concluded that Saudi Arabian critic and journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed by a team of fifteen Saudi Arabian agents who flew to Istanbul armed with weapons and toting their own buzz saw for the sole task of taking him out and that their actions were  authorized by Saudi leadership, specifically Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) because nothing happens in Saudi Arabia without royal family approval and because MBS, who likes to be seen as a great modernizer and political reformer, is actually quite vindictive, thin skinned and does not tolerate criticism.  Yesterday VP Pence tweeted that he was “Deeply troubled to hear reports about Saudi Arabian journalist Jamal Khashoggi. If true, this is a tragic day. Violence against journalists across the globe is a threat to freedom of the press & human rights. The free world deserves answers.”  For his part, Trump says that he knows nothing about this and that the Saudis are really nice guys because they let him rub their shining globe.  He also doesn’t know much about the validity of the UN’s recent report about the impending and dire consequences of climate change.  When asked about the report he said “It was given to me. And I want to look at who drew it. You know, which group drew it. I can give you reports that are fabulous, and I can give you reports that aren't so good. But I will be looking at it, absolutely.”  Apparently he’s waiting for the comic book edition, the one with really neat pictures, to come out before he takes a hard look.  WHAM POW.