Damascus Two Step

Seriously Syrian:  To almost everyone’s surprise, that is everyone except perhaps Russia’s Putin and Turkey’s Erdogan, Trump woke up yesterday and decided that he had won the battle against ISIS and that it was time to pull US troops out of Syria.   He then shocked his advisors and generals by tweeting that he wanted the troops out immediately if not sooner. Trump’s tweet pronouncement came just as Syria special envoy James Jeffrey indicated that US policy was to stay in the country and followed a Tuesday statement by a senior State Department spokesmen that US forces were there “to ensure the enduring defeat of the Islamic State.  We’ve made significant progress recently in the campaign, but the job is not yet done.” To say that members of Congress were stunned is an understatement.  Senator Lindsey Graham said that “This is chaos. I can only imagine how it’s playing in Syria.”  Outgoing Senator Bob Corker, who is still the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations, was also outraged, saying that he’d never seen anything like this before.  He planned to take up his concern with Trump during a scheduled afternoon meeting at the White House but was left stewing in a waiting area when Trump abruptly canceled their tete a tete. The decision was so unanticipated that the White House press office referred questions about it to the Defense Department while the Defense Department referred questions to the White House.  The perception is that Hezbollah, Russia, Iran, Syria’s Assad and Turkey and to a certain degree ISIS are the winners here and that the US, our European allies, Israel and the Kurds, who have put their lives on the line and have been relying on the US staying put are all bigly losers. Notably,  Russia’s official news service praised Trump’s decision. No doubt Turkey’s Erdogan is more than pleased too, his defense minister responded by saying that Kurdish militants east of the Euphrates in Syria “will be buried in their ditches when the time comes.”  As to Trump, though his disdain about US involvement in Syria was no secret, it’s still not clear why he made this decision so abruptly, without and against the input of his advisors.  Some suggest that he is placating Erdogan in an effort to get him to stop talking about Jamal Khashoggi’s murder, others say that he’s doing this to make Putin happy and then there are those who say he wants to free up Defense spending to reallocate the money to his coveted wall, crazy but then little is sane about Trump’s decision making process. One thing’s for certain, he managed to divert the spotlight away from the various and sundry investigations into all things Trump, at least for a day.

Russia, Russia, Russia:  While Trump upends Middle East dynamics, his adversary in the US, Robert Mueller remains focused on his task.  Yesterday it was reported that he sent a letter to the House Intelligence Committee requesting the official transcripts of Roger Stone’s testimony.  Mueller has already obtained and analyzed unofficial copies but needs the official transcripts for his Grand Jury, the expectation is that he plans to move forward with the indictment of Roger Stone as soon as he gets his hands on the transcripts.  The House Intelligence Committee, still chaired by Trump toady Devon Nunes, is due to meet this week to “consider” Mueller’s request To date Nunes has refused to release any of the committee’s transcripts to Mueller so it’s not clear that he will cooperate.  Regardless of what’s decided now, incoming Chairman Adam Schiff will release everything Mueller needs in early January, assuming of course that Nunes doesn’t do something rash like flush transcripts down the toilet and/or wipe the committee’s servers.  In other Russia news, yesterday the Treasury Department announced plans to lift the sanctions against companies owned by Oleg Deripaska, the Russian oligarch/Putin crony who had been involved in some of Paul Manafort’s ventures, the guy that Manafort tried to make “whole” for unpaid debts by providing him with inside information about Trump’s plans.  Apparently, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin hadn’t meant to sanction Deripaska’s companies earlier in the year but was forced to after he “accidentally” told Congress that they would be punished.  To obtain the sanctions relief Deripaska plans to reduce his ownership interest in the companies, more smoke and mirrors than anything else but a solution that will get his companies the relief they’ve been seeking while at the same time easing pressure on international aluminum markets that had been squeezed as a result of Mnuchin’s gaffe.  Deripaska will remain on the list. To compensate for easing the sanctions against Deripaska’s aluminum empire, the  Treasury Department simultaneously announced additional sanctions on a number of other Russian individuals for their “continued disregard for international norms.”  Last weekend lawyer/fixer Rudy Giuliani asserted that Trump had never signed a letter of intent for his Moscow Trump Tower project.  Yesterday he had to walk back that assertion after CNN obtained a copy of the letter that Trump signed in October of 2015.  Guiliani told CNN "I was wrong if I said it” adding  "I probably meant to say there was never a deal, much less a signed one." He then went on to say that the letter wasn’t worth much because after all it had been drafted Michael Cohen.  On the Attorney General front, the Wall Street Journal reports that early in the year AG nominee William Barr sent an unsolicited memo to the Justice Department that “excoriated special counsel Robert Mueller’s inquiry into potential obstruction of justice” by Trump, saying it is based on a “fatally misconceived” theory that would cause lasting damage to the presidency and the executive branch.  Just another thing to be addressed at Barr’s upcoming Senate confirmation hearing. As to Mueller, yesterday Senate Majority Leader rebuffed another effort by departing Republican Senator Jeff Flake and Democrat Senator Chris Coons to vote on their Mueller protection bill.   

Other News:  Last night the Senate passed a continuing resolution funding the government until February, the House is expected to vote on the bill today, the bill does not include funding for Trump’s wall.  It’s not clear yet whether the “mercurial” Trump will agree to sign it, though golfing in Florida while government employees including his Secret Service entourage remain unpaid might be a step too far even for him. Over the opposition of some of his most conservative Senators most notably Arkansas’ Senator Tom Cotton,  Senate Majority Leader McConnell finally allowed The First Step criminal justice reform legislation to move forward on Tuesday.  The legislation, which was promoted by son-in-law Jared Kushner and was supported by a politically diverse group including the Koch Brothers, the ACLU, Democrats and most Republicans passed resoundingly.  The bill, which has Trump’s support largely because of Kushner’s efforts, now moves to the House where it is expected to also be approved.  Emmet Sullivan, the same judge who blew a hole in former national security advisor Michael Flynn’s hope for a get out of jail free card, dismissed Justice Department policies that made it harder for immigrants to claim asylum because of domestic violence or gang violence, finding the policies violated existing law.  And despite Trump’s protests and the markets gyrations, and by gyrations think downward moves, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell raised interest rates again, an indication that the Fed still believes that the economy is basically sound, and that growth will continue in 2019 and beyond, albeit at a slower rate than in 2018.  Let’s hope he’s right about the economy.