Que Sera, Sera

Plop, Plop:  That was the sound of the stock markets dropping yesterday.  Apparently, Wall Street has finally started to take Trump’s tariff war seriously as have the Chinese who responded by announcing plans to impose tariffs on $60 billion worth of American products in retaliation for the US tariffs that Trump increased on Friday.  The tariff tit for tat won’t stop there, Trump has now begun the process of expanding US tariffs to cover all $540 billion in Chinese imports, “a potentially seismic jolt to the global economy that is expected to raise prices for everyday products such as cell phones, sunglasses, cameras and televisions.”  For the record, Trump insists that the tariffs are not a bigly problem because, due solely to him of course, the US economy is in the strongest position ever and anyway the cost of those tariffs fall solely on the Chinese, a statement that, at least with regard to the way that tariffs work, is either profoundly ignorant or intended to snow his base.  He also said he “loves the position we are in,” because who doesn’t love a 617 point one day drop in the Dow, one that is likely to be followed by more volatility and downward days?  Though not a business journalist, the Washington Post’s Eugene Robinson’s description of Trump’s trade strategy is spot on: “the thing to keep in mind about Trump, as he thrashes around like a weak swimmer in a strong current, is that he has no idea what he’s doing. None. Not a clue.”  Robinson adds that he knows that Trump “can be clever politically, in a tactical sense. I know that his lies are often both deliberate and effective. I know that his utter shamelessness can sometimes come off as some kind of warped genius. But the only thing that’s profound about Trump is the truly spectacular depth of his ignorance. As evidence, take a glance, if you dare, at your 401(k).”   The other large plop yesterday was even more ominous as it relates to Iran.  Concern is building that Trump’s national security team is preparing for war.  Last week it was reported that national security advisor Bolton, the hawkiest of hawks, and his  team traveled to CIA headquarters to discuss Iran. The meeting was attended by all the big guns: CIA Director Haspel, acting Defense Secretary Shanahan, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Dunford, Secretary of State Pompeo and Director of National Intelligence Coats.  Then, this past weekend, Pompeo made last minute changes to his travel schedule in order  to “crash” the Brussels meeting of European foreign ministers in an attempt to push them to unite against Iran and its nuclear program.  The Europeans, who are trying to save the Iran nuclear deal, were not receptive to Pompeo’s plea and are now even more concerned that the US and Iran are “inching towards war.” Their concerns are probably valid as US officials are now saying that last weekend’s mystery attack on two Saudi tankers and two other vessels off the coast of the United Arab Emirates was likely committed by Iran, an assessment that even they admit is not conclusive.  Curiously though the tankers were damaged, none of that damage was critical and neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE have publicly blamed Iran.  And now, via the NY Times, we know what was discussed at that rare all hands meeting at CIA headquarters meeting.  Apparently at the direction of Bolton, acting Defense Secretary Shanahan presented a plan to send up to 120,000 troops to the Middle East in the event that the Iranians "attack American forces or accelerate work on nuclear weapons."  Granted the military is always supposed to have a plan for everything, but this feels more like a Tonkin Gulf (as in rationale for the Viet Nam War) moment than just a “back-up” plan.

Oranges and Bad Apples:  Attorney General Barr keeps proving over and over again that he is Trump’s Roy Cohn.  Yesterday, it was reported that Barr has assigned, John Durham,  the US Attorney in Connecticut, to examine the origins, or as Trump likes to say the oranges, of the Russia investigation.  In case you are counting, this makes the third known investigation into the opening of the FBI investigation into possible ties between the Russian election “meddlers”  and Trump associates.   The other two include the investigation by the Justice Department’s inspector general, Michael Horowitz, whose report on the use of wiretaps, informants and possible political bias against Trump is due out soon and the review by John Huber, the US attorney in Utah, of “aspects” of the Russia investigation, whatever that means.  Trump who has been calling for an investigation of the investigators has got to be tickled pink about Durham’s assignment.  Reportedly Durham is respected, has been tasked  in the past to conduct internal investigations but isn’t known for speed which probably suits Trump’s purposes, because he’d prefer that Durham not report any conclusions until well after the 2020 election, especially if those conclusions are that no one did anything wrong.  On another front, Rod Rosenstein is getting a few things off his chest.  The former Deputy Attorney General who got slammed for writing the original “fire Comey” memo but for a while resuscitated his reputation by appointing Special Counsel Mueller and protecting the Russia investigation but whose reputation took a turn for the worse again after he teamed up with Attorney General Barr on that misleading “summary” of the Mueller report is now back to slamming the former FBI Director.  Yesterday during a speech in Baltimore he unloaded on Comey, calling him out for turning into one of those tell all  book profiteers and a "partisan pundit," reiterating that he deserved to be fired, and faulting him for trampling "bright lines that should never be crossed."  His speech was clearly in response to Comey’s NY Times Op-Ed, the one where he said that Rosenstein and Attorney General Barr lacked the "inner strength" to "resist the compromises necessary to survive Mr. Trump."  In other investigatory news, a Washington DC federal judge is set to hear arguments today over whether  Trump’s accounting firm, Mazars, must turn over years of his financial records to the House Oversight Committee.   

Rotten Tomatoes: In the lead up to their ousters from their roles at Homeland Security, former DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen and Acting Customs Enforcement Director Ronald Vitiello incurred the wrath of White House aid/immigration guru Stephen Miller for pushing back against a secret plan to swoop in and arrest thousands of migrant parents and their children in ten major US cities, a plan that was intended to prove that the Trump administration would detain and deport recent migrants, even if they had children.  None of the various sources for the Washington Post article suggests that Nielsen and Vitiello had moral or ethical qualms about the appropriateness of the action, they apparently pushed back largely due to logistical concerns over whether or not ICE agents were insufficiently prepared to take on the task, because they thought the plan was hastily planned and because they wore worried about public backlash and pulling resources from the border.  As to things that should be getting more backlash,  yesterday Trump welcomed Hungary’s far right Foreign Minister Viktor Orban to the White House.  Orban is an outspoken anti-Semite who has rolled back democratic checks on his power, mused about creating a European ethnostate and erected a razor-wire fence to keep migrants out. Neither Presidents George W Bush or Barack Obama, both of whom were concerned about Orban’s power consolidation and  the limitations that he imposed on independent media would agree to meet with Orban in the Oval Office, but Trump gleefully welcomed him saying “I know he's a tough man but he's a respected man.  Probably, like me, a little bit controversial, but that's OK. That's OK."   

RIP Doris Day