Hand Grenades and Napoleans

Kurdish Catastrophe:  Up until now Trump has been coasting.  Sure he’s had to deal with a few hurricanes,  government shutdowns, the loss of the House, Nancy Pelosi and that annoying Russia investigation but despite his incompetence, oafish behavior, hostile rhetoric, and bizarre preference for strongmen and autocrats over traditional allies he hadn’t been confronted by a major international crisis.  Well, now he’s got one, emanating from the Middle East tinderbox, and it’s one of his own making. Things in northeast Syria continue to deteriorate.  The Turks who have contracted out some of their military activities to several vicious Arab militias, are determined to grab as much Kurdish territory as possible, part of President Erdogan’s plan to find a new home for the crowd of war refugees temporarily residing in Turkey at the expense of the Kurds who he wouldn’t mind cleansing out of existence while increasing the reach of his “empire.”  Syria’s Bashar al Assad wants “his” Kurdish region back and the Kurds, they will do whatever it takes to survive.  The remaining US soldiers who haven’t yet been removed from the area, they are physically stuck in a dangerous vise between the warring parties.

Facing bilateral pressure, including criticism from his buddy Lindsey Graham and a harsh statement from Senate Leader Mitch McConnell, Trump is starting to impose sanctions, promising to ratchet up economic pressure if Turkey doesn’t cease hostilities.  Moreover Trump’s plan now includes sending a team made up of VP Pence and current national security advisor Robert O’Brien to Turkey to press for an end to the hostilities, the ones  that he enabled with that Erdogan phone call.  Curiously, he’s not sending Secretary of State Pompeo who for the record was on his call with Erdogan. Despite the upcoming mission, it’s clear that Trump still cares little about the Kurds, he just hates that the dire situation that he created may be alienating some of those Senators, the ones who may soon be voting on his political future. He made that disdain clear by tweeting “Let Syria and Assad protect the Kurds and fight Turkey for their own land…..Anyone who wants to assist Syria in protecting the Kurds is good with me, whether it is Russia, China, or Napoleon Bonaparte. I hope they all do great, we are 7,000 miles away!”  One more thing, he can now add another country to his nuclear “to do” list.  At last count the US houses about 50 or so tactical nuclear weapons at the Incirlik Air Base in Turkey.  The New York Times reports that military experts spent last weekend trying to devise a plan to get them out, something that won’t be logistically easy to accomplish but that would certainly make Putin extraordinarily happy.  The Russians have been trying to get our nukes moved out of the neighborhood for decades.

Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine:  The White House’s refusal to cooperate with investigations has worked well, at least until now.  Who can forget Hope Hicks’ refusal to respond to a question about the location of her White House desk or former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski’s hostile performance on live TV, not to mention the long list of former and current White House denizens who just refused to show up for their scheduled testimony?  Well it looks like the worm has turned and not in a good way for Trump.  Yesterday, just days after Ambassador to the Ukraine Yovanovitch sat for a lengthy closed door deposition, Russia expert Fiona Hill showed up and spilled her guts.  The former National Security Council expert praised Yovanovitch while detailing Rudy Giuliani’s role as Trump’s unofficial ambassador to the Ukraine for digging up Biden dirt.  As Democratic Congressman Jamie Raskin put it, her ten hours of testimony painted a more “comprehensive” picture of Giuliani’s under-the-radar efforts on Trump’s behalf. Among other things Hill reported that on the advice of former national security advisor John Bolton she brought her concerns about Giuliani’s efforts to John Eisenberg, the national security council lawyer.  For his part Bolton made it clear to her that he wanted nothing to do with Giuliani, that he was “not part of whatever drug deal Rudy and Mulvaney are cooking up,” describing Rudy as “a hand grenade who’s going to blow everybody up.”  It’s fair to assume that, if they haven’t already been, both Bolton and acting Chief of Staff Mulvaney will now be “invited” to testify and though Mulvaney will probably refuse to show up for as long as he can, Bolton may be quite willing especially in light of events in Syria. 

With or without Mulvaney, the house hearing schedule is filling up. EU Ambassador Sondland, who is now disingenuously asserting that he knew nothing about the quest for Biden dirt and that he really, really liked and respected the very impressive Yovanovitch is still due to show up on Thursday, Michael McKinley, who resigned last week as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s top adviser over frustration with Pompeo’s management “style,” will testify on Wednesday and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Laura Cooper, who oversees Russia and Ukraine related issues at the Pentagon is expected to appear for a deposition on Friday. For their part, with officials and past officials lining up to testify and the facts painting a damning picture, Trump’s Republican cronies have pivoted to going after the Democrat’s process.  Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz, one of Trump’s most avid fanboys, tried, unsuccessfully, to force himself into yesterday’s hearing even though attendance was restricted to relevant committee members and he’s not relevant.  Others, including Trump’s dedicated team of Fox pundits are criticizing the Democrats for holding the hearings behind closed doors and for not, yet at least, releasing full transcripts of any of the sessions.  The Democrats’ response is that they don’t want the testimony of future witnesses “influenced” by what earlier ones say. 

As to Rudy, his problems are mounting.  The Wall Street Journal reports that federal prosecutors are now scrutinizing all of his Ukraine related endeavors, focusing in on his finances and who, as in which Russian oligarch, paid him for his efforts.  In the meantime his good buddies Lev and Oleg remain in jail as they try to negotiate the terms of a $1 million each bail arrangement, one that presumably won’t facilitate them flying off to someplace cozy like Siberia.

Other Stuff: In an effort to push back against Trump’s smear campaign Hunter Biden sat for an interview with ABC’s Amy Robach.  That interview will be aired today right before the scheduled Democratic debate because isn’t that the best time for such an interview to air? Whatever he says, it won’t be as horrifying as the “graphic and violent parody” video which was shown at an event hosted by a conservative group at Trump’s Miami golf resort last weekend.  That video depicts a gruesome scene inside a “church of Fake News” in which a Trump figure goes on a shooting rampage killing a list of political rivals including Bernie Sanders, Barack Obama, Adam Schiff, the Clintons and numerous others. Under pressure,  White House Press Secretary Grisham said that though he hasn’t seen it, Trump condemns the video.  For the record former Press Secretary Sanders and Don Jr also spoke at the conference but somehow or other failed to hear or see the video themselves.  Right?  Shifting back to Pompeo for a moment, for much of yesterday the front page of the State Department’s website  depicted a picture of him under the heading “Being a Christian Leader” because, you know, that First Amendment thing is so yesterday?