Enchiladas

Election Results:  Trump traveled to Kentucky on Monday night to a rally in support of Governor Matt Bevin who was locked in a tight race against Democratic competitor Andy Beshear, the state’s Attorney General and the son of a former governor.  The Trump magic worked, it did help increase voter turnout.  Unfortunately for Bevin a disproportionate share of those newly enthused voters showed up to cast votes for the Democrat, Beshear, who appears to have eked out victory, winning by a little more than 5000 votes though Bevin still hasn’t conceded. Bevin was a remarkably unpopular incumbent, he had made it harder for people to qualify for the state’s popular Obamacare  Medicaid expansion and he’d alienated both teachers and the unions, which together with his obnoxiously acerbic personality accounted for his tough race.  But given that Trump had won Kentucky by 30 points in 2016, he and Trump had both believed that the Trump push would carry him to victory.  It had to because they trotted out the old standbys calling the moderate Beshear who ran on health care and education a socialist and equating him to the “privileged” Hunter Biden.  So much for that approach. Trump’s response to Bevin’s loss was to tweet claim that because of him Bevin had picked up at least 15 points in the last days, “but perhaps not enough (Fake News will blame Trump!).” It’s not clear that Beshear’s victory is a harbinger for things to come in Kentucky but Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who together with Kentucky’s other Senator Rand Paul, attended the Trump/Bevin rally can’t be all that happy.  He’s up for reelection in 2020 and currently has historically bad favorability ratings among local voters. That said, it’s too early to count him out because he’ll get to run alongside Trump, assuming Trump hasn’t retired to Mar a Lago or somewhere less charming by then.  Democrats also won in Virginia, taking over both houses. That wasn’t totally surprising but is still remarkable when you consider that just a few months ago the Democrat Governor and almost every other leading Democratic state wide officer was involved in a blackface or sex assault scandal. Democrats will now be able to push forward with gun control and heath care legislation and will get to control the drawing of legislative districts after the 2020 census results are in.  Republicans did win the Mississippi Governor race, not surprising but, since Trump campaigned there too, something for him to brag about.  

Sondland Sang: Democrats released the transcripts of both EU Ambassador/Three Amigo Gordon Sondland and former Special Envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker’s House committee testimony yesterday. The big news there is that in a November 4 addendum to his original testimony Sondland admitted to the whole quid pro quo enchilada, claiming that his memory has been "refreshed" after reviewing others' testimony. He now says he recalls that military aid to Ukraine was, “according to his understanding,” conditioned on Ukraine making a public anti-corruption statement. He added that he remembers a September conversation with Andrey Yermak, an aide to Ukraine's president, in which he "said that the resumption of US aid would likely not occur until Ukraine provided the public anti-corruption statement that we had been discussing for many weeks."  Notably that conversation took place while Sondland and Yermak were in Warsaw together with VP Pence.  Though Pence didn’t participate in the specific conversation he did meet with the Ukrainian delegation and curiously Jennifer Williams a special advisor to Pence for Europe and Russia is scheduled to testify on Thursday.  All of this should be a bigly problem for Team Trump however, Lindsey Graham, the Chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee response to the Sondland news was to say that he isn’t going to read any of the transcripts including Sondland’s because “ I've written the whole process off, "I think this is a bunch of B.S." And Mitch McConnell’s response was to say that it is unlikely that Trump would be convicted and removed from office if he were to face a Senate impeachment trial today. He doesn’t “think there’s any question it would not lead to a removal.”  How fair and balanced of both of them to reach conclusions without hearing all the testimony. 

Democrats have invited Acting Chief of Staff Mulvaney to give a deposition though no one expects that he will and everyone is waiting to find out whether the elusive John Bolton shows up this week for his. He probably won’t but he is unpredictable.  Also Senator Rand Paul, who is locked in a battle with Lindsey Graham to see who can be Trump’s true bestie largely in order to control foreign policy decisions, continues to threaten to out the Whistleblower despite pushback from a number of other Republican Senators who believe that is a step too far as if there are any too far steps in Trumpland. Along those lines the Justice Department is trying to get the publisher of the upcoming Anonymous book “A Warning” about the goings on in the Trump White House to out the author even though it’s likely too late to do anything about it. As to the upcoming House hearings, House Republicans have decided that absent a Trump defense their only option will be to turn them into a circus so Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is giving serious consideration to stacking the House Intelligence Committee by removing one or two of the more moderate Republicans, people like retiring Texas Congressman Will Hurd, the Republican’s only African American representative, replacing them with Congressman Jim “Gym” Jordan and Mark Meadows, Trump’s very favorite and most disruptive House fanboys.

Tossing Stones:  Jury selection began yesterday in the Roger Stone case and things went about as well as could be expected.  One person in the gallery had a seizure and Stone had to seek permission to leave the court to deal with a really bad case of the runs.  You can’t make this stuff up.