Pick Two or More

Musings: Another weekend of virus, violence, and memorials, the sad new normal of 2020.  Trump is promoting unrest, something that he is depressingly good at. The situation in Portland continues to deteriorate, spreading to cities across the country, but while stoking hate is his thing, Trump is less good at wall building, a section of his wall, his only infrastructure accomplishment, fell down over the weekend, destroyed by Hurricane Hanna.  Senate Republicans spent the weekend finalizing their version of the next coronavirus stimulus package, one they negotiated with Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin but one that is a non-starter with the Democrats who so far have been kept out of the loop. On the virus front, over the weekend Dr Debby stated the obvious, that there are now three NY like hotspots: Florida, Texas and  California. Virus guru Fauci continues to be slammed for speaking truth about the virus’ trajectory, though right of even Fox TV network Sinclair Broadcasting has postponed for now plans to show an expose’ attributing the creation of the virus to Fauci.  The never right about anything economic advisor Larry Kudlow insists that despite the importance of Florida, Texas and California to the country’s economy things are humming along nicely and are on the upswing. Trump who spent his weekend engaging in his favorite activities, golf, fund raising, and mean tweeting, wants us all to believe that as much as he really wants to, he no longer plans to throw the first pitch at the Yankee’s home opener because he’ll be too busy attending to the virus. And sadly, John Lewis traveled over the Edmond Pettus bridge for the last time, but maybe, just maybe at some point that bridge like the next Voting Rights Bill will be renamed the John Lewis Bridge in his memory.

Politicking: Trump continues to sink in the polls but we all know by now that polls aren’t always accurate and that Trump will do his best to disrupt the electoral process every which way he can, whether that’s by questioning its legitimacy, disparaging mail-in ballots, stripping funds from the US Postal Service or whatever else he can possibly get away with.  That said the November election is about more than the presidency, it’s also about taking back the Senate so with the election now less than 100 days away, even less in early voting states, I thought it would be a good time to focus on some Senate races, so here goes.

Democrats:  Twelve Democratic seats are up in November.  Ten of them are in solidly blue states. One is in a likely blue state and one is in totally red Alabama.  The likely blue state is Michigan where early in the cycle Republicans thought they’d be able to pick off incumbent Senator Gary Peters, however with Trump lagging in Michigan’s polls it looks likely that Peters will hold his seat.  On the Alabama front, Doug Jones, the newbie Senator who beat child molester Judge Roy Moore remains very vulnerable given that Alabama remains a Trump stronghold.  That said, Jones’ Republican opponent, former football coach Tommy Tuberville, has a checkered past that includes part ownership in a fraud ridden hedge fund and possibly some overlooked until now history ignoring sexual harassment during his coaching career so it’s too early to write Jones off.

Republicans: Twenty-three Republican seats are up in November and this is where things get very interesting.  Putting aside the ten shoe-ins, thirteen of these seats are worth focusing on:

Arizona:  Former Astronaut/Gabby Giffords husband John Kelly is expected to demolish Martha McSally, the Senator who was appointed to take over John McCain’s seat.  He’s well-funded, suitably moderate for the state and McSally, by virtue of her loss in 2018, has already proven that she’s not a good candidate.  

Colorado:  Though he faced some criticism during his Democratic primary campaign, former Governor/one time presidential candidate John Hickenlooper is likely to prevail over Senator Cory Gardner. He’s another one who is polling well in the increasingly blue state.

Maine:  Sara Gideon, the Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives is giving Maine’s notorious pearl clutcher Susan Collins her first major challenge.  Gideon is well regarded and, as a result of all the money that started flowing into Maine after Collins voted for “I like beer” Justice Kavanaugh, is well funded but don’t count Collins out, she’s rolling in Republican dough, the reward that was sent her way for supporting Kavanaugh.

North Carolina:  Democrat Cal Cunningham, a former state senator, is challenging incumbent Thom Tillis in another one of those states that is starting to tilt blue. Cunningham is currently leading in the polls, but not by much and this race, which is a key one for Democrats, is still considered a toss-up.

Georgia:  There are two seats up for grabs in Georgia this cycle.   Democrat Jon Ossoff is looking to unseat Senator David Perdue. Georgia is one of those states that everyone thinks might turn blue someday but with the help of voter suppression that someday isn’t necessarily right around the corner.  Ossoff, whose doctor wife, was just diagnosed as COVID positive is temporarily sidelined awaiting his own test result.  He’s still campaigning but doing it from home where he’s self-quarantining. That said, he’s viewed as a viable candidate who could win against Perdue if Biden pulls off a blue wave. Georgia’s other Senate election is a bit unusual, incumbent Senator Kelly Loeffler, the controversial insider trading accused newbie who was appointed to serve out the rest of Republican Senator Johnny Isaakson’s term after he stepped down due to sickness is running in a special election that, though it takes place on November 3, is subject to a different set of rules, the winner needs to gain at least 50% of the vote to go on to the Senate.  Loeffler is up against a few fellow Republicans, including Congressman Doug Collins, as well as a number of Democrats so there is likely to be a run off in January and that runoff could be between two Republicans.  

Iowa:  Democrat Theresa Greenfield is challenging Republican incumbent, one time Republican darling Joni Ernst.  Ernst has remained a loyal Trump supplicant, if he goes down, she is likely to go with him.  Right now this is viewed as a toss-up race.

Montana: Outgoing Democratic Governor/one time presidential candidate Steve Bullock who is very popular in Montana is running against incumbent Republican Senator Steve Daines not because he really wants to be a Senator but because the Democrats begged him to run.  Montana is one of those states that was all in for Trump in 2016 and where he remains popular however, given how well liked Bullock is in the state this is another, albeit, unlikely toss-up election.

South Carolina:  Democratic candidate Jaime Harrison is challenging long term South Carolina Senator/Trump bestie Lindsey Graham.  The charismatic Harrison graduated from Yale and Georgetown Law and worked for South Carolina Congressman/ kingmaker Jim Clyburn.  He’s another one of those candidates who given South Carolina’s tilt towards Trump shouldn’t stand much of a chance but he is outperforming in both fund raising and the polls and is likely to benefit from Black voter activism so he’s giving Graham a well-deserved hard time.

Texas:  Democratic Candidate/Air Force veteran MJ Hegar just won the primary to challenge incumbent Republican John Cornyn in Texas, another one of those states that everyone hopes will turn blue but that so far hasn’t.  She is not as well known as Beto O’Rourke and John Cornyn is not as well hated as Ted Cruz but Biden is polling surprising well in Texas so Republicans are a bit nervous, so much so that Trump has reallocated campaign spending to the state.  So don’t count Hegar out yet.

Kentucky:  Former Marine Pilot Amy McGrath is challenging incumbent Senator Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.  McConnell isn’t much liked in Kentucky or anywhere else for that matter and McGrath has proven herself to be a great fundraiser, though not a great candidate, she almost lost the Democratic primary.  Although McConnell is likely to prevail, McGrath is causing him agita and causing him to have to spend more time and money running than he thought would be necessary especially given that Kentucky is another state that loves Trump.  Given how rich McConnell and his wife Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao are, the money part isn’t a problem for him but boy would it be nice to see him struggle and maybe even lose.   

Alaska:  Dr. Al Gross, an Independent with support from Democrats is challenging Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan.  This is another one of those races that should be firmly in the Republican court but that is now considered a possible, though remote, Democratic pick up.  As Lisa Murkowski proved last time she ran, Alaska has been known to vote for Independents and Dr Gross, who is focusing on health care, an important issue in Alaska, could be a sleeper candidate.     

Kansas:  The Kansas primary takes place in early August.  Republican Senator Pat Roberts is not running for reelection.  If immigration hardliner Kris Kobach wins the Republican nomination than Kansas will be in play, if the Republicans go with a more normal, or at least a more normal for Republicans candidate, Kansas will remain solidly in the red court. More to come on this race in August.      

Hawaii Senator Brian Schatz, one of my favorite twitter masters, recommends that we all pick at least two Democratic Senatorial candidates to support.  He’s right, because winning the Senate is key, especially if you don’t want to see the Supreme Court slip away.  So listen to Schatz, pick two or pick them all.  Small contributions, big ones whatever suits you.  Hit the Actblue.com website.