Debate Night

September Surprise:  With the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett front and center, this weekend I took a much needed hiatus from watching and reading the news.  The image of our likely next Justice, with her perfectly dressed children alongside like props in a Stepford movie, asserting that she was the perfect replacement for RBG, her philosophical opposite, was too much to handle.  My brief hiatus was broken when I was asked what I thought about the NY Times getting hold of Trump’s tax information.  So here goes. The surprising part about the NY Times article, the first in a series, the second article which focuses in on the benefits that accrued to Trump from his Apprentice series dropped last night, is that it took so long for the information to be leaked.  The rest of it isn’t surprising as much as it is depressing, the depressing part being that so many people thought and likely still think that Trump is a legit businessman and/or just don’t care that he’s gamed the system and that he’s gotten away with his misdeeds for so long.  That he didn’t pay much, if anything in taxes, isn’t shocking, he’s told us as much for years.  What is surprising is how far he pressed the envelope, that he paid no federal taxes for eleven of the eighteen years that the NY Times reported on, and that Trump, the branding savant, and his accounting wizards failed to realize that the obvious $750 “plug” that he paid to the IRS for each of the first two years of his administration, the last years they obtained information for, wouldn’t eventually be known, providing a talking point of remarkable value to his opponents. As to the details, a number of things, silly and substantive stand out.  The $70,000 deducted for Trump’s hair styling and the $100,000 for Ivanka’s coif, especially ridiculous because stylists at one hair salon she frequented talk about her routinely stiffing them for her costly blonde extensions, fall into the silly category, because if you’re as rich as they’re supposed to be, why bother, and because it’s clearly an IRS no no.  On the substantive side, its notable that so much of Trump’s recent income came from his Apprentice days and from branding, rather than real estate development, and that instead of conservatively investing the hundreds of millions of dollars he raked in from those sources he plowed the funds into money losing and coffer draining golf courses and resorts. It’s also odd, and quite possibly illegal that he paid out millions in tax deductible consulting fees, including at least $700k to daughter Ivanka while she was an employee of his company, an amount we know about because she disclosed a too coincidental identical amount on her government financial disclosure statement.  We don’t know where the remaining millions of consultant fees went though it wouldn’t be a stretch to assume that more went to Ivanka and to other members of the Trump crime family which would partially explain why Don Jr, who is looking increasingly coked out these days (no proof just an observation), and Eric were all over Fox and twitter attacking the NY Times yesterday.  Also in the substantive category, Trump has somewhere around $421 million in personally guaranteed debt coming due over the next few years.  That figure doesn’t include real estate secured mortgages and is especially concerning because it’s not known who he owes the money to and debt, especially debt of that magnitude, would disqualify anyone else from accessing the type of top secret information that Trump sees daily or would see daily if he read his briefs. On at least one front Trump hasn’t been lying to us, he is under audit, the IRS has been trying to claw back around $70 million of a refund that he received years ago, an amount that triggered lots of alarms within the IRS due to its size, with interest he likely now owes them at least $100 million. And though Trump hasn’t paid much to the US Treasury in recent years, he has paid lots to other countries including Turkey and India, places where he owns interests in profit making hotels, raising concerns that his foreign policy decisions, things like abandoning Kurdish allies, are influenced by  his profit motives.  The NY Times’ financial mavens were careful to say that they saw no Russian tracks, but didn’t rule any out and also pointed out that some of his more recent investments, particularly those money losing golf courses are convenient money laundry mats for oligarchs seeking to “bleach” their cash.  Naturally, Trump and the White House’s first response to the NY Times article was to call it politically motivated fake news.  Then Trump added that it was full of mistakes and was illegally obtained.  A Trump company spokesperson denied the validity of the article, using an argument also pushed by sons Don Jr and Eric, that Trump pays lots in taxes.  Of course Trump does pay taxes for things like payroll and real estate, they conveniently ignore his cheating on Federal taxes, the subject of the NY Times article.  Will any of this matter?  Probably not to most of Trump’s base but maybe a few of those undecideds, to the extent any remain, will be offended by the idea that a billionaire paid only $750 in taxes last year while they paid far more on incomes that fall far below his hair care deductions.  Who knows?   

Viral Musings:  CDC Head Robert Redfield was overheard talking on a phone call by an NBC reporter seated behind him on a flight from Atlanta to Washington DC.  During the call Redfield complained that Trump’s newest favorite “expert” Scott Atlas, the radiologist who is into herd immunity rather than virus science, was wrong about everything and that he was feeding the gullible Trump misinformation that was killing the rest of us. In a sign of just how upset Redfield is, when asked about the call, he didn’t deny what he said.  Similarly, reports are that Dr Debby Birx is also at her wit’s end, apparently kowtowing to Trump has its consequences, she’s no longer his favorite and her advice, which behind the scenes has been mostly spot on, isn’t being listened to any more.  And though Trump once again insisted that all’s good in virus land, virus guru Fauci and current  trends indicate otherwise.  The US mortality count is 205,000 to 208,000 depending on the source,  cases have crossed through the 7 million barrier and Fauci remains really, really concerned, especially about current trends and that idiot governor of Florida who just fully opened up all bars and restaurants while throwing face mask rules out the window. 

Human Resources:  Former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale went off the deep end this weekend. He threatened his wife, who reported to police that her very visible bruises were from an earlier dispute they’d had during the week.  She fled to a neighbor and then called for police help after hearing what she thought was a suicidal gunshot.  The police ultimately restrained Parscale, taking away his ten gun arsenal and dragging him away for a psych hold.  Parscale is very lucky that he’s white and that the police officer who talked him down off of his cliff was a friend.  A Forbes article published earlier in the week referenced a report from the bipartisan Campaign Legal Center that accused Trump’s campaign of laundering $170 million through Parscale controlled entities. Maybe that and a call from Trump who can’t be happy about recent polls contributed to Parscale’s meltdown. For what it’s worth, this morning’s Washington Post – ABC poll shows Trump down around 10 points in swing state Pennsylvania, a state that was previously much closer.   Fox’s Maria Bartiromo reported that the much awaited and teased report from US Attorney John Durham, the report that Fox and the right wing echo chamber says proves that the Russia investigation wasn’t legit and that is supposed to lead to indictments of everyone in the Obama administration including FBI guy James Comey and CIA guy John Brennan,  will not be released until after the election.  She says the delay is because Durham is now also investigating the investigation of the Clinton Foundation but it’s fair to assume that it isn’t being released because Durham hasn’t found anything worth releasing.  That said, AG Barr could still surprise us with a summary because when has a lack of facts ever stopped him?  And because speaking truth to power comes with risks, Chief of Staff Mark Meadows is now throwing mud at FBI head Christopher Wray. 

Debate’s on for tonight from 9 to 10:30 EDT.