HOKA Polka

The Big Race:  One of the major party presidential candidates has been to every top battleground state this month, a considerable amount of travel for someone who is supposedly whimpering in his basement.  He’s also been pretty busy doing presidential things like trying to broker peace in Gaza while helping out Ukraine.  His campaign coffers are overflowing with cash.  The other one has held only one rally in a battleground state, has had to modify some campaign plans to save on costs and is balancing campaigning with a busy court calendar. Facing a cash crunch, he’s been spending a disproportionate amount of his time at his Palm Beach residence meeting with potential donors who he’s been hitting up for money, some for his campaign but maybe even more for his pressing personal needs. The press continues to tell us that the first guy, President Biden, is old, citing as evidence his new HOKA sneakers, his life-long stutter, and his post-nasal drip. Blinded perhaps by his make-up enhanced orange glow, they spend far less time mentioning that the other guy, Trump, is far from a spring chicken, slurs his speech, pitches forward when walking in his height enhancing shoes, is running on a platform that focuses on retribution, and promises to be a dictator for a day, as if he really means just one day. Then there’s the other candidates. Riding off his family name one of them, RFK Jr, who Vanity Fair reports is frequently amped up on steroids, has been making the rounds, trying to blur his decades long campaign against vaccinations while also asserting that as president he’ll adopt policies to improve the health of America’s children, well at least those who come through their bouts of measles, mumps, rubella, polio and the like unscathed. There’s also the No Labels candidate.  Don’t feel bad if you don’t know who that candidate is, he or she doesn’t exist so far, not for want of trying. The No Labels party best described as a group of mostly rich elitists, still appears determined to find someone to carry their “centrist” flag.  To no avail, they have pitched themselves to Nikki Haley, Larry Hogan, Joe Manchin, former Georgia Lt Governor Geoff Duncan, Condoleezza Rice, retired Admiral William McRaven and former Congressman Will Hurd among others and at least one of them would settle for RFK Jr should he be interested. The No Labels honchos know they can’t win but think that they can garner enough Electoral College votes to force a “contingent election,” a constitutional provision which would result in the president being chosen by the House and the vice president being chosen by the Senate.  What but everything could possibly go wrong with that? There are also a few other fringe candidates but for the moment they’re mostly flying under the radar, not that they couldn’t impact the results in a swing state or two. 228 days to go.

Legal Tango:  Trump’s lawyers are frantically trying to get a higher court in New York to waive or dramatically reduce the amount of money Trump is supposed to cough up as a result of Judge Engoron’s ruling in NY Attorney General Tish James’s fraud case against him, his business and his two adult sons. So far, despite his squawking, whining and Truth Social posting, Trump hasn’t managed to get his $500 million plus obligation reduced but he has until Monday so don’t count him out yet. For her part, AG Tish James is ready to start glomming onto Trump’s assets.  Her office has already filed judgments in Westchester County, an indication that she is prepared to try to take over Trump’s golf course and Seven Springs private estate on day one. Also in New York, it looks like NYC District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s case could be back on track. It turns out that despite assertions and fears otherwise, the Southern District of New York Federal Attorneys didn’t sit on a trove of relevant documents, that the large cache of newly disclosed documents that Trump’s lawyers had asserted would be game changers contain little that might influence or delay Bragg’s hush money/election interference trial.  Bragg appears confident that Judge Juan Merchan who is overseeing the case will agree with that assessment and as a result will allow the trial to go forward in April, just one month beyond its originally scheduled March start date.  The news out of Judge Eileen “loose” Cannon’s court room is far less promising.  Though the “purloined” documents case that she is overseeing should be a slam dunk for prosecutors, it’s growing increasingly apparent that in addition to delaying the trial, she may be trying to tank it altogether. Some of her recent rulings give her the option to dismiss the whole case after a jury has been sworn in, an action that would leave Special Counsel Jack Smith without any right to appeal. It’s not clear if Cannon’s rulings are a result of her lack of experience or are politically motivated, or most likely both, but whatever their basis they’re very damaging to Smith’s case since they largely benefit Trump. For example, on Monday, she ordered defense and prosecutors to outline proposed jury instructions based on two scenarios each of which misstate the law and facts of the case.  Though it would be somewhat unprecedented and also politically ugly, don’t be surprised if Smith tries to have her replaced.

Senate Races:  Yesterday, New Jersey’s multiply indicted Senator Bob Menendez finally announced that he won’t be seeking reelection, at least he won’t be seeking reelection as a Democrat.  Should he be exonerated in time he says he’ll run as an independent. That’s unlikely to happen so the race for the Democratic nomination for his Senate seat is now between Congressman Andy Kim and Tammy Murphy, wife of Governor Phil Murphy. New Jersey is a weird state where back-door politics still reigns. In many of the state’s counties ballot design and candidate position is determined by county leaders beholden to the Governor which means that Tammy Murphy’s name could appear on top with Andy Kim’s name placed where it will barely be seen.  Kim is suing to have those rules changed and in a someone unprecedented step the state’s Attorney General says he won’t defend the state’s current system, a plus for Kim who has managed to get good ballot placement in the few counties that aren’t controlled by the “system.” The case is currently in front of a federal judge.  The state primary is scheduled to take place on June 4.  Overall, more vulnerable Democratic Senate seats are up this cycle including in a few rather red states. I’ll include a more complete election table in a forthcoming write-up but here are some races to focus on in the meantime, subject to your preferences consider contributing or getting otherwise involved.  Jon Tester is up for reelection in Montana.  He like, Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, has a history of winning in a red state but with Trump on the ballot he’ll need all the help he can get. Senator Jacky Rosen’s race in Nevada is likely to be close as is Bob Casey’s in Pennsylvania. Representative Elissa Slotkin is seeking to replace retiring Senator Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Ruben Gallego is seeking to replace the departing Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona. Colin Allred is challenging Republican Ted Cruz in Texas and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is challenging Republican Rick Scott in Florida. Neither Scott nor Cruz is very popular in their states, both squeezed by in their last races by small margins so though Texas and Florida may seem like a stretch, don’t count them out particularly since reproductive rights loom over both states. In Maryland, Democrats haven’t chosen their candidate to replace retiring Senator Ben Cardin yet.  Maryland is a state that should be easy for Democrats to win but won’t be this cycle since Republicans have selected the relatively popular former Governor Larry Hogan, one of those who turned down a No Labels bid because he’s too shrewd for that.  

Fog:  Supposedly the House has agreed to a funding bill to avoid a shut down, but it’s not done yet since Speaker Johnson is facing the usual pushback from many in his caucus. The US is now supporting a UN Security Council resolution that calls for an immediate Gaza ceasefire with “linkage” to a hostage release whatever “linkage” is supposed to mean as in probably very little for the hostages. And because politics are politics and Speaker Johnson is trying to exploit Democratic divisions, he plans to invite Israel’s Netanyahu to speak before a joint session of Congress.  Senate Leader Schumer is reluctantly now on board for that even though he’d rather it not take place, but again politics.  

#BringThemAllHomeNow