Nerd Balls ✡️🌻✡️🌻✡️🌻

Trump Trials:  Last week, National Enquirer’s former publisher David Pecker confirmed that his “catch and kill” arrangement with Trump was about aiding Trump’s run for the presidency by squelching stories about Trump’s affairs and pushing mendacious slime about his political opponents rather than protecting Melania and Ivanka’s delicate ears from learning about his extramarital dalliances. Following Pecker’s testimony and cross examination, prosecutors called their next witnesses, Rhona Graff and Gary Farro.  Graff, who acknowledged that her lawyers are being compensated by the Trump Organization, was Trump’s long term personal assistant.  She confirmed that both porn star Stormy and longer-term Playmate girlfriend Karen McDougal’s contact information were in Trump’s personal phone list, an indication that despite Trump’s assertions that he didn’t know either woman, he clearly did. Graff also confirmed that she’d seen Stormy when she visited Trump Tower to talk to Trump about being a contestant on Celebrity Apprentice.  Gary Farro who was Michael Cohen’s long-term banker at the now defunct First Republic Bank helped Cohen establish Essential Consultants, LLC, the special purpose entity used to funnel the “hush”  money payments to Stormy.  Graff and Farro’s testimony was less sensational than Pecker’s since they weren’t there to titillate but to contribute to the fact pattern at the heart of the case, that Trump manufactured false business records to hide his sexcapades from the electorate in the run up to the 2016 election.  Michael Cohen will say as much when he’s called to testify but because of his sketchy and sometimes mendacious past prosecutors need corroboration for what he’s expected to say which is why Farro and Graff’s testimony was essential.  The Court isn’t in session today so there won’t be any more testimony until tomorrow when Farro is expected back on the stand.  We’re still waiting for presiding Judge Juan Merchan to rule on whether Trump should be penalized for his earliest violations of his gag order, not to be confused with some more of his violations which are the subject of a hearing scheduled to take place on Thursday, nor his continued violations, like the one in which he made some comments about nice guy David Pecker this weekend.  The way things are going there may be a hearing on gag order violations each week of this trial, the question is less about Trump violating the order and more about what Judge Merchan is willing to do about it.   

Politics Unusual:  Mitch McConnell still thinks that Trump is a creep, holds him responsible for January 6, and doesn’t believe that he should be immune from prosecution but none of that will stop him from voting for the Republican candidate come November. Like Bill Barr, he’s all in because taxes, migrants, social policy and maybe inflation, which is way lower in the US than anywhere else.  Add Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to that list. Word is that he and Trump made up this weekend at the Mar a Lago omelet bar with Ronnie D promising to help Trump tap into his bigly money donors. No word yet on Nikki Haley but if this pattern holds, she could jump on board too despite all those awful things she’s said about him though I hope I am wrong about that. However, it doesn’t look like RFK Jr will be invited to partake of eggs slathered in ketchup with a chug of Diet Coke anytime soon.  Over the weekend, Trump went on a Truth Social tirade against the nepo guy, calling him a “Democrat Plant” put in place to help “Crooked Joe.”  Trump went on to say that he’d vote for Biden before he’d vote for that far left RFK and his “Chief Funder” VP partner.  Sounds like Trump has seen some polling showing RFK pulling more votes from him than from Biden.  Who really knows, but it’s clear that RFK has the potential to be a spoiler, even he acknowledges that he knows he can’t win, he just wants to throw the election into chaos. Calling him a “dangerous conspiracy theorist and science denier” a dozen environmental groups including those RFK previously worked with have come out against his presidential run saying his “agenda would be a disaster for our communities and the planet.” Not a good sign when your family and the people you used to work with all think you’re dangerous and have gone over the edge. SNL’s Colin Jost won’t be dining on eggs anytime soon either.  At Saturday night’s White House Correspondents dinner also known as the Nerd Ball, he made it clear that he’s Team Decency and by decency he means Biden.  He’s also as baffled and scared as the rest of us about the polls that indicate that the outcome of the election is anyone’s guess.  

Fog: College campuses are still a mess and judging by the “updates” I received from two of those I attended, a thoughtful one from the University of Rochester Hillel and a worthless one from Columbia University’s Alumni Send Cash Crowd, things remain turbulent though in Rochester as opposed to NYC, the situation seemed more toned down.  Hamas and/or their designees continue to hold the hostages hostage though they did release two more proof of life videos.  To be clear, they didn’t release hostages, just videos.  Negotiations for the release of some though not all of the hostages in exchange for a ceasefire continue.  Videos don’t count, only releases do. And calling for the eradication of all Jews should not be tolerated anywhere, on college campuses, city streets, or outside of White House dinners. That’s not protesting for a cause, that’s just unbridled hate.     

#BringThemAllHomeNow      

 

Friends in Court Places ✡️🌻✡️🌻✡️🌻

The Supremes:  In all likelihood, with the help of his trusty SCOTUS Justices, Trump notched another victory yesterday.  While the Court hasn’t yet issued a ruling in the presidential immunity case, and probably won’t until the end of June, the conservative members of the Court with the possible exception of Justice Amy Coney Barrett, made it clear that they think that presidents, particularly those named Donald Trump, should be allowed to get away with some criminal activity while in office.  Moreover, they seem likely to direct the lower court, in this case the one overseen by Washington DC District Judge Tanya Chutkan, to parse through Trump’s “alleged” crimes to determine which of them can be prosecuted. That approach feeds into Trump’s hands since the litigation about what constitutes as a qualifying illegal action will more than likely stall his federal trials until well after the November election and, even worse, if Trump wins the election, it will allow him to direct “his” Justice Department to halt the federal cases against him.  Remember those lower court rulings that said that presidents aren’t kings, forget about all that.  Apparently, this SCOTUS kind of thinks they are.  We should have seen this coming but hope springs eternal so a boatload of legal pundits, former defense experts and various and sundry former cabinet members some of whom witnessed Trump’s criminality firsthand and therefore know what an unfettered Trump is capable of doing, missed it.

Hush Already: In New York, National Enquirer guy David Pecker was back on the stand yesterday testifying some more in Trump’s election interference/hush money case.  The outlines of his testimony aren’t surprising, but some of his added embellishments are revealing.  For example, Pecker knew that paying Trump’s accusers in the run up to the election wasn’t okay.  He first learned that from his lawyers when he helped squash some stories about Arnold Schwarzenegger back when Arnold was running for Governor of California. Additionally, part of his reluctance to pay Stormy Daniels directly from his coffers had to do with his concern that Walmart, his biggest distributor, would be offended by her being a porn star.  That reluctance combined with Trump’s failure to reimburse him for the money he’d advanced Playmate/girlfriend Karen McDougal and the NYC doorman who’d alleged that Trump had fathered an out of wedlock child, led Pecker to insist that Trump cough up the Stormy money which led to the Michael Cohen payment/reimbursement scheme. Pecker who appears to continue to value his friendship, or what’s left of his friendship with Trump, also testified that in the run up to the election Trump’s chief concern was keeping the stories of his dalliances away from voters, that protecting wife three Melania was not his focus. Pecker also implicated Hope Hicks and Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Trump’s one time press secretary who is now the Governor of Arkansas in some cover-up activities.  On cross examination, Trump’s lawyers picked up a few inconsistencies about dates in Pecker’s recollections and brought out that he frequently squashed stories for other luminaries but did little to tarnish the essence of Pecker’s testimony.  Curiously, though Trump continues to violate his gag order, particularly going after Michael Cohen who hasn’t yet testified, he only has nice things to say about Pecker, likely because Pecker has a few more, less than flattering Trump related stories hidden away in his memory bank or a safe in a bank. As to Trump’s gag order violations, presiding Judge Merchan still hasn’t announced any penalties, but has scheduled another hearing for next week.  For their part, Alvin Bragg’s prosecutors have added a few more of Trump’s violations to a growing list.

Abortion, Plus:  Earlier this week SCOTUS heard arguments in another abortion case, this one involving the impact of Idaho’s strict abortion ban on patients seeking emergency care.  The issue is whether a 40-year-old federal law that requires hospitals receiving federal funds, which because of Medicaid, is essentially all hospitals, to provide life- saving care to people who present themselves at emergency rooms pre-empts Idaho’s strict ban on abortions if the life-saving emergency care needed by any of those pregnant women involves an emergency abortion.  it’s Idaho’s position that an uninsured poor person in the throes of a heart attack would get treated but a woman hemorrhaging from a lethal pregnancy, not so much.  Naturally, a number of the same “conservative” Justices who think presidents named Trump can act like Kings are “uncomfortable” with the federal government mandating care for dying pregnant women particularly if providing the desperately needed care would get in the way of Idaho’s criminalization of abortion.  Elsewhere on the abortion front, Arizona’s state House, voted again on repealing the 1864 law that outlawed all abortions.  This time, with the help of three Republicans who flipped their vote to join all of the state house’s Democrats the repeal bill passed.  It is expected to be voted on in the Arizona state senate next week.  One of the Republicans who flipped to support the repeal has been stripped of his committee assignments by House Republican leadership as punishment for his vote. Assuming the repeal bill passes in the state Senate, Arizona will go back to the previous 15-week ban that provides no exceptions for rape or incest, at least until November when a more liberal “Roe” like abortion law is likely to be on the ballot.  Elsewhere in Arizona, taking a page from Georgia, a grand jury has indicted eleven fake electors and seven more Trump allies including former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, Rudy Guiliani. John Eastman, Boris Epshteyn, Jenna Ellis, and Christina Bobb for trying to upturn the results of the 2020 election.  Trump was named as an unindicted co-conspirator because though he’s knee deep in the Arizona mess, unlike in Georgia, at least so far there’s no tape of him asking anyone to find 11,000 votes.  Christina Bobb was recently appointed to serve as the RNC’s election integrity lawyer.  Boris was last seen sitting in on Trump’s NY trial.   

Fog:  Sadly, Democratic New Jersey Congressman Donald Payne who’d been in a coma following a heart attack died earlier this week. He was running unopposed in the upcoming June primary so it will be left to party leaders to decide who runs in his place in November and it will be up to NJ Governor Murphy to decide whether or not to schedule a special election to fill his reliably Democratic seat through the end of the year. By a vote of 4 to 3, a New York Appeals Court overturned accused serial sexual abuser Harvey Weinstein’s rape conviction ordering a new trial.  The court ruled that testimony of “prior bad acts” witnesses should not have been allowed because “it was unnecessary to establish defendant’s intent and served only to establish defendant’s propensity to commit the crimes charged.” #WTF. In far better news, at least for E Jean Caroll, yesterday a federal judge rejected Trump’s request to strike the $83.3 million in damages he was ordered to pay her. Trump, of course, is expected to appeal that decision to a higher court which partially explains why his legal bills continue to skyrocket.  According to the Daily Beast’s Roger Sollenberger who earlier this year broke the story about CPAC Matt Schlapp sexually assaulting and then settling with a male Republican staffer, about $8 million of Trump’s legal bills have been surreptitiously paid through a mysterious third-party consulting firm, masking their true recipients.  That likely violates federal law, so maybe some more legal bills to come?   Here at home, many university campuses remain in disarray, mired in Gaza protests some of which are more hate fests than protests. The University of Southern California has cancelled its main stage graduation ceremony but somehow or other Columbia University still plans on going ahead with theirs.  Overseas, Hamas continues to refuse to release its hostages absent a ceasefire agreement that they won’t agree to or even abide by but at least the parents of American/Israeli citizen Hersh Golberg-Polin have seen a Hamas video that provides evidence that their injured son who lost an arm on October 7 is still alive. No comfort for the rest of the grieving families but some, albeit not enough, for Hersh’s family.

#BringThemAllHomeNow   

 Pecker of Pickled Peppers ✡️🌻✡️🌻✡️🌻

The Trials of Trump: The NY election interference/hush money trial is off and running. Most of the facts presented by the prosecution during Monday’s opening remarks have been in the public domain for years but even those of us with advanced Trump Derangement syndrome are learning some new implicating tidbits.  For example, prosecutors mentioned that the terms of the scheme to repay Michael Cohen for advancing the “hush” money to porn star Stormy Daniels were memorialized in writing (!) something to be shared in coming days.  Trump’s defense lawyers didn’t introduce anything new in their opening remarks, rather they stuck to the story that Trump did nothing wrong because he’s perfect and everything he did was completely kosher.  Also, despite Trump’s public assertions that he can’t wait to testify on his own behalf, his lawyers didn’t say that he would because he won’t.  After the opening remarks and again yesterday, David Pecker, the former publisher of the National Enquirer, testified about his close relationship with Trump as well as the unprecedented deal that the National Enquirer cut with Trump to help him win the presidency. All reports are that Pecker was credible and that, despite his Trump implicating testimony, including his comments that Trump was a micromanager who paid scrupulous attention to all things financial, he remains a fan of The Donald.  Basically, Pecker described how he, working mostly through Michael Cohen, paid for, and killed negative stories about Trump while promoting negative, mostly facetious stories about his primary opponents, specifically Ted Cruz and Ben Carson and also against his general election opponent Hillary Clinton, all with the intent of smoothing Trump’s path to the White House.  So far Pecker has addressed the $30,000 payment made to the New York doorman who brought forward a story about Trump fathering an out of wedlock child with a housekeeper and the $150,000 paid to Karen McDougal, the Playmate, who had a months long affair with Trump around the time that son Barron was born.  The doorman passed a lie detector test but his story, based on hearsay turned out to be false.  The McDougal story was true and so concerned Trump that he had several direct conversations with Pecker about it.  Though Pecker had previously “caught and killed” stories for other celebrities like Arnold Schwarzenegger and Tiger Woods, he did so in exchange for “exclusive” readership boosting interviews and cover stories that increased his rag’s bottom line. His arrangement with Trump did not financially benefit the National Enquirer, instead it hurt the bottom line because they missed out on stories that would have increased readership while also advancing payments for which the unreliable tightwad Trump failed to provide the promised reimbursement.  When he returns to the stand tomorrow, Pecker is expected to testify that the National Enquirer didn’t directly pay the hush money to porn star Stormy Daniels because Trump failed to reimburse the McDougal payment.  That “stiffing” is the reason that Michael Cohen stepped up to personally advance the Stormy payment out of the proceeds of a home equity loan. Trump then reimbursed Cohen for paying Stormy through a cockamamie scheme devised by CFO Allen Weisselberg and Cohen that mischaracterized the hush money advance as payments for legal services, grossed up to compensate Cohen for his related income taxes, an illegal falsifying of business records done, according to the prosecution, to interfere with the results of the 2016 election, another NYS crime. Two more nails in the criming coffin: Trump wanted to stop the payments to Stormy once he won the election and Pecker’s National Enquirer released the doorman from his onerous confidentiality agreement because once Trump won, there was no longer a reason to keep anything secret.    Pecker, unlike Michael Cohen, avoided prosecution and jail for his part in the criminal scheme only because his better lawyers helped him cut a deal with federal prosecutors first.   And of course, does any of this matter?  Trump only needs one juror to vote with him.  

Teflon: We’re still waiting to hear back from Judge Merchan as to whether Trump will be penalized for violating the gag order that’s supposed to stop him from targeting and besmirching jury members, witnesses and the families of the judge and prosecutors.  Merchan is not happy with Trump, nor is he pleased with his legal team who he warned were “losing their credibility with the court”  for failing to back up their assertions that Trump wasn’t in violation of the gag order that he clearly is and continues to violate.  Trump will probably be fined, but the fines which are limited to $1,000 per violation won’t bother him, he’ll just sell more sneakers, bibles or tap his donors.  Some pundits believe Trump wants to be hauled away to jail, but only for a minute or two, to rev up his base.  A bigly catch 22 for the prosecutors and the judge.  And naturally because Trump gets away with most things, Judge Erdogan ruled that the questionable $175 million bond posted in the NYS financial fraud case is okay though he did impose a few conditions intended to enhance its security.

 

Politics: Yesterday the financial aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan passed in the Senate by a vote of 79 to 18. Ten Republicans who’d previously voted against the funding package voted for it this time, including South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham who credited Trump for his support.  That makes no sense but it’s Lindsey so there’s that.   Fifteen Republicans voted with two Democrats and one Independent in opposing the bill. Three Republicans, Senators Tim Scott, Rand Paul, and Tommy Tuberville ducked the vote altogether.   The opposing Republicans included the usual suspects, like JD Vance, Rick Scott, Marco Rubio, Mike Lee, Ron Johnson, and Ted Cruz who either opposed funding Ukraine or refused to vote for anything that didn’t include more border security and also included the increasingly right leaning Wyoming Senator John Barrasso who is a member of Republican leadership.  The opposing Democrats were Oregon’s Jeff Merkley and Vermont’s Peter Welch, the opposing Independent was Vermont’s Independent Bernie Sanders. The three “liberals” voted no to express their opposition to providing aid to Israel.  Both Trump and Biden won yesterday’s Pennsylvania primaries.  However, Trump is still bleeding votes to Nikki Haley who garnered 16.5% of the Republican votes cast.  In contrast Biden lost only 6% to his former opponent Dean Phillips. All of the incumbent House candidates won their primaries, including Summer Lee, a Democratic Squad member, who fended off her challenger.  In other not all that shocking news, George of many names Santos who to date had managed to raise $0 for his run has called off his campaign for the eastern Long Island House seat currently held by Republican Nick LaLota.   

Déjà vu:  The pro-Palestinian/anti-Israel demonstrations on college campuses continue to fester with little resolution in sight.  That could be a big problem for President Biden and the Democrats especially if the demonstrations infect the Democratic convention scheduled to take place in August in Chicago. Visions of 1968 dancing in anyone else’s heads?  And I am not talking sugar plums.

#BringThemAllHomeNow

  

 

The Smallest Man Who Ever Lived ✡️🌻✡️🌻✡️🌻

Alchemy:  On Saturday, Speaker for now Mike Johnson put his already hanging by a thread position further in jeopardy by bringing votes on aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan to the House floor. Instead of moving forward with the bill already passed in the Senate, he broke the House bill into five parts, one for each region, another one on banning TikTok and one more for border security. Everything except for the border security package passed. With a significant lift by Hakeem Jeffries’ Democratic contingent, the $60 billion aid package for Ukraine, the part that puts Speaker Johnson deep in quicksand, passed 311 to 112. As expected, a majority of the Republican caucus voted against it, Democrat Rashida Tlaib voted present because that’s how she rolls more often than not on anything that doesn’t involve aid to the Palestinians.  The $26 billion military aid package for Israel which includes $9 billion for humanitarian aid for Gaza passed on a bilateral basis, 366 to 58 with 21 Republicans and 37 Democrats voting against it. The $8 billon Taiwan/Indo Pacific aid package also passed with bilateral support, 385 votes in favor to 34 opposed with all the no votes coming from the Republican side of the aisle.  Again, odd duck Tlaib only voted present.  The TikTok ban which is intended to force the sale of the company to a US entity passed 360 to 58.  With 215 aye votes, all but five from the Republican side of the aisle, the border security package did manage to obtain a simple majority but failed because it, unlike the other parts of Johnson’s magical solution, required two thirds support for passage. Moscow Marge and the rest of the pro-Russian Republicans, including their pro-Russian leader Trump aren’t happy about having pissed off Vlad Putin who was counting on them blocking Ukraine aid. Ukraine President Zelenskyy however was beyond pleased and took to the airwaves to express his thanks.  No doubt most of Europe’s leaders were also relieved that at least for now the US has come through.  The House package still needs to be voted on by the Senate but since the Senate has already passed most of what was in the House bill and are anxious to put this mess behind them, expectations are that the House version will fly through the Senate and that aid will start flowing to Ukraine ASAP. As to Johnson, it’s believed that he finally let the Ukraine aid come up for a vote because as Speaker he’d become privy to intelligence revealing just how dire the country’s situation was. Whatever the reason, he finally did the right thing. If Moscow Marge goes through with her threat and calls for a motion to vacate vote, he’ll need support from Hakeem Jeffries, AKA the Shadow Speaker, to survive. Johnson will be effectively neutered but he might make it through to November only because the Republicans don’t have another Speaker candidate who can win but then again, it’s not like doing stupid performative acts has bothered them before. By the way Trump’s planned North Carolina rally was cancelled on Saturday due to an incoming storm. Maybe someone upstairs was sending a message?

Guilty As Sin?   Small Man Trump has a busy and expensive week ahead of him, not on the campaign front but in court. With the jury seated, the NYC election interference/hush money case moves forward today.  It’s not just the NYC trial that will keep his legal team occupied, a hearing on Trump’s $175 million hinky bond, the one he put up for the New York fraud case, is scheduled to take place today as well. NY Attorney General Tish James’ position is that the company that put up the bond isn’t adequately capitalized to cover it, in other words, she’s concerned that there isn’t enough money there for NYS should Trump lose his appeal. Tomorrow, Judge Merchan who is overseeing Trump’s NYC case, is holding a hearing on Trump’s alleged multiple gag order violations and the Supreme Court will be hearing arguments in Trump’s presidential immunity case on Thursday.  Over the weekend, various news outlets reported that the PAC that has been paying Trump’s legal bills is scraping bottom.  Somehow or other that’s not all that surprising and likely explains the gold sneakers, the special edition Bible, the upping of his take from funds raised by down ballot candidates who use his name in their solicitations and, my personal favorite, Melania’s sale of $245 Melania themed Mother’s Day necklaces.  Note to all, unless your mother or wife is totally red pilled, stick with roses.

Tortured Poets:  The situation at Columbia University has gone from bad to worse with pro-Palestinian demonstrations devolving into full on anti-Semitic hate fests.  Over the weekend, Rabbi Elie Beuchler, the director of Columbia University’s Orthodox Union-Jewish Learning Initiative, recommended that Jewish Columbia and Barnard students “return home as soon as possible” and that they stay away until conditions improved substantially because their safety was endangered.  Later last night the University’s Hillel (Jewish Center) sent out a notice acknowledging the deteriorating security at the university while lambasting the school’s failure to provide a safe environment in the face of “escalating anti-Semitic harassment.”  They reiterated that the Hillel’s Kraft Center would be staying open to give students a safe place to celebrate this week’s Passover holiday, adding that the NYPD would be providing the center with round the clock security.  In further recognition of the deteriorating situation, classes at Columbia are now being held virtually. How terribly awful and disgusting that here we are in 2024 and Jews in NYC, the city with the largest number of Jews in any city in the world has a student population that feels so endangered. Demonstrators are entitled to demonstrate for causes they believe in, but they are not entitled to threaten others.  Sadly, Columbia isn’t alone, the virus of hate has spread and is spreading. 

A friend in Israel messaged overnight that in Israel for Passover  “we do not say happy hag (holiday) this year but silent hag. So silent hag”.  ☹

#BringThemAllHomeNow     

 

Farts and Fog ✡️🌻✡️🌻✡️🌻

Trying Trump:  For a while yesterday, it appeared that the process of sitting a jury for Trump’s election NY interference/hush money trial had hit a snag, actually two snags, after one of the selected jurors bailed over concerns that too much information about her had been published and another was released for failing to mention that a family member had been involved in a corruption inquiry but the selection process quickly got back on track and by the end of the day twelve jurors plus one alternate had been seated.  Assuming no more of the seated jurors freaked out overnight and the five remaining alternates are selected today, the trial is a go for Monday.  Naturally, Trump who continues to act out remains upset about the process, particularly disturbed that his lawyers haven’t been allowed to eliminate every potential juror interviewed.  Prosecutors have asked presiding Judge Merchan to hold Trump in contempt for repeatedly sliming the expected witnesses in violation of his gag order.  Trump’s lawyers’ defense is that their client hasn’t technicality violated the gag order, that his nasty social media postings have just exposed the order’s “ambiguities.”  The Judge, who agreed that prosecutors could keep the names of their first three witnesses from Trump’s team at least through the weekend because of Trump’s alleged violations, is expected to rule on the contempt request early next week.  Were Trump anyone else, he’d be cooling his heels in NY’s Rikers Island jail by now but he’s not because despite the adage that “no one is above the law,” he is.  Mean time down in the Everglades, Judge loose Cannon rejected a request from Trump’s co-defendants Walt Nauta and Carlos De Oliveira that charges against them be dropped, or at least dropped now.  She ruled that their argument that they didn’t know the boxes they played hide the Afikomen with at Mar a Lago contained secret, purloined documents should instead be brought up as part of their defense, assuming of course, the purloined documents trial ever takes place.

The Swamp:  Speaker Mike Johnson is now working as an intern for Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries.  At least that’s MAGA Margie’s assertion and to be fair to Marge and her right wing pro-Russian colleagues, she’s not entirely wrong.  Yesterday the Republican dominated House Rules Committee passed a rule to allow four key foreign aid bills out of committee onto the House floor over the objection of Republican committee members Thomas Massie, Ralph Norman, and Chip Roy only because all the Democrats on the committee voted for it.  That’s highly unusual because members of one party do not typically support the other party’s rules.  The three foreign aid bills provide $61 billion for Ukraine, $26 for Israel and related humanitarian aid, and $8 billion for Taiwan and the Indo Pacific.  The fourth bill includes sanctions on Iran, calls for the seizure of frozen Russian assets, and includes a measure intended to force the sale of TikTok to a US entity. Assuming the bills make it through a floor test vote today, a vote on their final passage is expected on Saturday after which if all goes according to plan, they’ll be passed over to the Senate. The ultra MAGA right is so upset with Speaker Johnson that they’ve established a FART squad, more formally known as a Floor Action Response Team but really who doesn’t think that FART is an appropriate acronym, to ensure that he does nothing to change the operational rules, including the one vote motion to vacate provision, that they convinced Kevin McCarthy to agree to in exchange for his short-lived speakership. Interestingly, one of the reasons that Hakeem and his Democrats are willing to help Speaker Johnson out of the jam he’s in is they view him as a man of his word.  They don’t like him or his extreme right-wing positions but at least so far trust that, unlike Kevin McCarthy, he’ll honor his promises to them. That said, the only thing standing between Johnson and the exit door right now is that there doesn’t appear to be anyone else in the Republican caucus who wants and could win the Speakership job because given the Republican’s current one or two seat majority, managing those 🤡 🤡 is virtually impossible.  By the way, the Democrats are down a seat right now because New Jersey Congressman Donald Payne recently suffered a heart attack and has been in a coma for eleven days.

Politics:  A huge Kennedy family contingent led by Kerry Kennedy and including six of RFK Jr’s siblings, endorsed President Biden yesterday. RFK Jr’s running mate, who is doubling as his bank account, publicly expressed her “concern” over the Moderna COVID vaccine because that’s so RFK like.  One time Trump Attorney General Bill Barr, who jumped off Trump’s train after the last election and is on record saying that Trump committed most of the criminal actions, he committed now says that he’ll support the Republican presidential ticket, not that anyone should be surprised about that.  And just one day after Columbia University’s president testified on campus anti-Semitism before the House, she called upon the NYPD to help her disperse the 100 plus anti-Israel demonstrators who’d set up an encampment on the Columbia campus in violation of university rules.  One of the dispersed students, who was simultaneously suspended from Columbia’s associated school Barnard, is Isra Hirsi, the daughter of Congressman Ilan Omar.  No doubt we will be hearing a lot from Omar and the Squad about that.  Republican members of the Arizona House again blocked efforts to repeal Arizona’s 1864 abortion ban. That’s really bad for Arizona’s women and also probably bad for Trump and Senate hopeful/election denier Kari Lake who keeps trying to deny that she ever supported the 1864 ban even though there’s plenty of videos of her saying that she did.  The political ads write themselves.

Fog:  Last night, as expected and after notifying the US of their plans, Israel retaliated for last weekend’s 300 plus drone and missile attack with a “limited” military strike on a military base near Isfahan, Iran, maybe just Israel’s way of warning Iran that they can reach targets within Iran if and when they want to.  Iran says that they have no plans to respond which means things might go back to “normal” for now, normal meaning continued attacks on Israel from Iran’s Hezbollah surrogates in the North and Hamas in the South. 

#BringThemAllHomeNow   

 

Sleepy, Grumpy Don ✡️🌻✡️🌻✡️🌻

Seven and Counting:  Forget world turmoil and bombs and rockets, the Trump New York election interference/hush money trial is dominating the news cycle.  The biggest takeaways from the trial are that seven jurors have been selected so far, Trump who keeps nodding off managed to stay awake long enough to give at least one potential juror the evil eye and may be fined for that as well as for violating his partial gag order, and presiding Judge Juan Merchan expects, or at least hopes to have all the jurors in time for opening arguments on Monday.  For the record, the judge didn’t say that he wouldn’t let Trump attend son Barron’s May 17 high school graduation, he just said that it would depend on where things stood in court at the time, not that the truth matters to Trump who immediately lambasted Merchan for keeping him away from Barron’s graduation.  Just a reminder that if Trump, who reportedly didn’t go to his other kids’ graduations, had spent more time with Barron when he was four months old and less time with a certain porn star this case wouldn’t be happening.  Also, Trump who has probably never been to a bodega before went to one in Harlem to highlight the “skyrocketing” murder rate that exists only in his fevered mind, on right wing TV, and as a Republican talking point at least according to that left wing, communist rag The Wall Street Journal which reported this week that homicides have “plummeted” in major US cities including New York.  On the subject of right- wing news outlets and their habit of reporting faux news, Smartmatic, one of the two electronic voting system companies defamed after the 2020 election, reached an out of court settlement with OAN yesterday. The details of the settlement are sealed. Smartmatic is still suing Fox, the company that forked over a settlement payment of $787 million to Dominion, the other voting system company which is still suing OAN.

Republicans in Disarray:  Democrats aren’t in unison, particularly on aid to Israel, but House Republicans are so dysfunctional that their disagreement on passing Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan aid is providing Hakeem Jeffries’ team with lots of cover.  Yesterday, Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie said that he’s on team MAGA Margie and will support her efforts to force a motion to vacate, the mechanism that could signal the end of Speaker for now Mike Johnson’s speakership. Massie and MAGA Marge are riled up over Johnson’s cockeyed multi-step plan to get foreign aid through the House.  It’s not the cockeyed part that bothers them, it’s that Johnson, who says he’s not resigning despite their efforts to boot him, is trying to get any funds approved for those “corrupt” “Nazi” Ukrainians, something that many others in his fractious caucus, particularly the ones who still believe in trying to push back against Putin’s territorial ambitions, care about. Johnson’s plan involves breaking the foreign aid into parts so that pro-Israel Republicans who don’t want to fund Ukraine can vote to fund Israel without voting to fund Ukraine.  From Johnson’s point of view, the multi-part legislative plan has the added benefit of shining a bright light on the “Squad” Democrats, who won’t vote to fund anything having to do with Israel. To make matters even more difficult for Johnson, a few other members of his fractious soon to be only one vote majority caucus are still holding out for the additional border funding and immigration restrictions that Johnson following the orders of Trump failed to bring up for a vote.  Of course, the House could just vote on the foreign aid package already approved by the Senate, there are likely enough votes to pass that more straightforward legislation in the House.  However, Johnson’s problem is that he doesn’t have the votes to do so without a lift from Democratic and the Orange Guy isn’t on board.  Further complicating the passage of any legislation is that Johnson can’t get anything to the floor of the House for a vote without first getting it passed through the House Rules Committee which former Speaker McCarthy stacked with right wing crazies in order to secure their support for his short-lived Speakership.  Of course, Dem leader Hakeem Jeffries could lend a helping hand by giving Johnson a few Rules Committee votes, something Jeffries might do even though the minority party doesn’t generally support the majority party’s Rules Committee votes.  That would help get foreign aid legislation passed but ultimately would lead to Johnson’s demise turning his “I am not resigning” assertion into “where’s the exit”  because bipartisanship is one of those things that the Republican right despises just about as much as they hate Ukraine.  Fun ahead.      

Vibes:  While passing key legislation isn’t their forte, House Republicans are a bit better at impeaching so yesterday a contingent of them, including MAGA Marge, marched the articles of impeachment of Homeland Secretary Mayorkas over to the Senate.  As you may recall, House Republicans voted to impeach Mayorkas a few weeks ago, not because he committed any high crimes but to protest the border policies of President Biden, the guy they really want to impeach.  The Biden impeachment is currently on the back burner not because they don’t want to impeach him but because a few members of the Republican majority, mostly from swing districts, don’t want to move forward with a presidential impeachment based on vibes rather than actual crimes, mostly because they fear doing so will lose them their seats.  Senate Majority Leader Schumer is trying to minimize the length of the Mayorkas impeachment trial down to a New York minute and though it might turn out being a little longer, it’s clear to everyone that the Democratically controlled Senate will not vote to convict Mayorkas.

Fog:   Justice Clarence Thomas was inexplicably MIA on Monday, but reappeared yesterday to hear arguments before SCOTUS about whether or not a key obstruction law can be used to charge January 6 insurrectionists.   Any ruling that results in the tossing of those charges would free many, though not all, of the January 6 crowd, and would also complicate Special Counsel Jack Smith’s efforts to prosecute Trump so it shouldn’t surprise anyone to learn that the conservative SCOTUS Justices are leaning in that direction. Given Ginni Thomas’ involvement in the events of January 6, Clarence should have recused himself but of course he didn’t. A number of experts who aren’t really experts have “concluded” that Iran didn’t mean to do any damage to Israel but only launched those 300 plus drones and missiles their way to make a statement.  Forget about that, Iran intended to do lots of damage they just failed miserably largely because the US, UK, France, Jordan and maybe even Saudi Arabia stepped up. Notably the multipronged attack that Iran launched is similar to the military strategy being employed by Russia against Ukraine where it has been effective because Ukraine doesn’t have the resources or allied air support since, at least so far, no one wants to trigger a NATO war with Russia, a country that unlike Iran which is close to but still without a nuclear arsenal, has plenty.  It’s highly likely that Israel will respond to Iran’s attack at some point, maybe soon, maybe not so soon.  The only question is whether or not the Israeli response will be “measured” whatever that means and how Iran which is doing a lot of saber rattling will respond.  Worth noting that Iran’s surrogate Hezbollah has been and continues to launch deadly projectiles at Israel from Lebanon.  Also, Hamas continues to play Lucy and the football with a ceasefire for hostage deal.  Every time one is reported to be close, Hamas reduces the number of hostages they’re willing to exchange.

#BringThemAllHomeNOW       

          

WARGAMES ✡️🌻✡️🌻✡️🌻

🚀 🚀🚀:  Saturday night Middle East time, Iran launched 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles at Israel.  All of the drones which took several hours to reach their destination and the cruise missiles which took about an hour were downed outside of Israel’s airspace by Israel, the US, the UK, Jordan (!), and maybe France. Israel’s Iron Dome and Arrow air defense systems destroyed most of the ballistic missiles that made it past the various ally flyers though a few made it to their target, Israel’s Nevatim Air base, where they did minimal damage.  Unfortunately, shrapnel from one of the destroyed missiles struck a 7-year-old Israeli Bedouin girl who remains in critical condition.  The Iranian attack was in retaliation for Israel’s targeted strike of an Iran consulate building in Syria. That strike killed 2 Iranian Generals and 5 additional officers, all of whom were targeted because of their critical roles in aiding and abetting militant groups in Gaza and Lebanon, Iran’s anti-Israel surrogates.  The retaliation for the consulate strike was expected, the scope of the retaliation and that Iran didn’t employ one of its nefarious surrogates was not.  Israel is now expected to respond with a retaliatory strike of its own though President Biden has warned Israel Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu that his response should be measured because Biden doesn’t want to be pulled into a full-fledged Middle East war, not an irrational concern since prior experience indicates that nothing good comes of that.  Not that a bigly war is a concern for former Trump advisor John Bolton, who to the extent anyone cares says that he won’t be voting for either Trump or Biden.  He’s pushing for a full-on attack as are a few others among the House and Senate neo-con set who think we should egg Israel on to directly attack Iran regardless of the outcome. For their part, the UN spent yesterday playing with their fidget spinners.

Fog: During the hours when the hundreds of drones were still enroute to Israel and well before any of the quicker moving missiles had even been launched, social media was aglow with messages from members of Congress from both sides of the aisle, most expressing concern and support to the Israeli people but others very political in nature, including a few from the usual Republican suspects, attacking Biden for his “weakness” and inability to “control” the Iranians, particularly ironic because despite a slew of carrot and stick attempts, a nuclear deal and an undone nuke deal no one, including their hero Trump has managed to control Iran’s leaders for decades. Speaker for now Mike Johnson who’d spent his Saturday at Mar a Lago cozying up to Trump and promising to ban non-citizens who’ve never been allowed to vote in Federal elections from doing what they already can’t do, promised to divert this week’s House agenda away from messaging legislation advancing water guzzling dishwashers and power hogging refrigerators to the passage of an Israel military aid package.  Democratic leadership also promised to advance aid for Israel, but their priority continues to be pushing through the already passed Senate legislation which also includes military aid for Ukraine and Taiwan as well as humanitarian aid for Gaza. So basically, the Ukraine stalemate continues to loom over passing any military aid because the Orange guy, MAGA Margie and a slew of other Republicans remain set against helping those “corrupt”  Ukrainian “Nazis,” their adjectives, not mine, and Speaker Mike lives in fear of losing his job.  To further complicate the military aid vote, a contingent of Democrats, mostly Squad members, who well before the Gaza mess, voted against funding Israel’s lifesaving Iron Dome missile defense system, remain dead set against providing any kind of military aid to Israel.  It shouldn’t surprise anyone to learn that while the 300 plus drones and missiles were enroute to Israel, none of those Squad members were among those expressing concern for Israel though yesterday a few of them emerged from their bunkers with word salad posts that blamed all the region’s ills on Israel.  Oddly enough two of the longest, weirdest X posts came from Missouri’s Cori Bush and New York’s Jamaal Bowman, both of whom are facing very competitive primary challenges.        

Legal Morass: Despite another late Friday attempt by his lawyers to push off his New York trial, jury selection begins today which means we New Yorkers, particularly the downtown set will be subjected to weeks of Trump and his antics in the Big 🍎.  Though the press mostly talks about the salacious parts of this case, the hushing of porn star Stormy Daniels (AKA Stephanie Clifford) to keep her from publicly disclosing her very short “affair” with Trump, it’s really about his efforts to engage in election interference so Trump is facing 34 felony accounts alleging that he falsified New York business records to conceal damaging information that could have affected the outcome of the 2016 election. Not too long ago the legal pundits advised us that this was the weakest case against Trump but with the other ones mired in the Everglades, the Supreme Court, and a bedroom in Atlanta, it’s the one we’ve got, so here we go.  Will it matter if Trump is found guilty, maybe on the fringes and maybe that’s all that matters but it certainly doesn’t help that New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu who is supposedly a “normie” “moderate” Republican told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos yesterday that though he believes that Trump “absolutely contributed” to an insurrection and that his efforts to overturn the 2020 election were “absolutely terrible,” nothing, not even felony convictions, would stop him from voting for him. That’s Trump who calls the insurrectionists patriots, who begins his rallies by glorifying their prison choir and who adores Robert E Lee, not to mention his incoherent babble and worsening aphasia. Calling Nikki Haley and Chris Christie, it’s time to speak up and by speak up, I mean say you are voting for Biden.  😱 

Good luck Boston 🏃 🏃🏃 

Let’s not forget the hostages!  @BringThemAllHomeNow 

Beating the Drums of War ✡️🌻✡️🌻✡️🌻

First the Factoids:   It’s difficult to get an accurate count of the number of abortions that take place in the US each year because abortions are underreported, however officials put the 2023 count somewhere around one million. In 2023 California, New York, Illinois, and Florida were the states where the largest numbers of abortions took place, not all that surprising given their relative populations, and at least until the recent Florida Supreme Court ruling, their relatively accommodating regulatory climate.  By population alone, Texas where 50,000 to 55,000 abortions took place annually prior to the overturning of Roe. should be on that list.  However,  given its now very onerous environment only 40 “legal” abortions were reported to have taken place there last year, a stunning drop off that’s been accompanied by worsening maternal health statistics.  Despite Trump’s assertion that “babies are being ripped out of the womb on the ninth month, on the last day of pregnancy,” they’re not. In reality, 93.5% of abortions take place before 13 weeks, 5.7% take place between 14 to 20 weeks, and 0.9% after 21 weeks, with those later term abortions primarily performed for health reasons.  In 2023 About 63% of abortions involved the use of mifepristone, usually in combination with misoprostol. Mifepristone is the abortion drug that the anti-abortion crowd continues to try to ban by falsely claiming that it was inappropriately approved by the FDA, and by trying to outlaw its distribution through the mail.  The drug combo which has a better safety profile than Tylenol, is approved for use through about ten weeks of gestation.  It is legal in 94 countries, some of which allow it to be sold over the counter.  Because so many abortions are now performed with mifepristone and misoprostol and the drugs still can be obtained through the mail, the total number of abortions in the US has ticked slightly upward despite the overturning of Roe, but as Texas’ statistics indicate, the overturning of Roe and the continued imposition of state prohibitions is making obtaining a legal, timely, and safe abortion far more challenging, particularly for women with limited financial resources and for those facing health challenges that require immediate in-person and/or hospital care. 

Raising Arizona:   This week’s Arizona court ruling is panicking a lot of Republicans who’ve spent the last few decades attacking abortion rights, not the ones who truly are opposed to abortion, they’re celebrating the imposition of the Civil War era abortion ban, but those who could care less about who gets an abortion but care so much about their political futures that they’ve tied their fortunes to the anti-abortion movement.  Unfortunately for that power hungry set and for women in need, putting the abortion genie back in the bottle isn’t so easy which explains why Arizona’s Republican dominated legislature, failed so miserably when it attempted to do so on Wednesday.  Kari Lake, the former local news anchor who having lost the gubernatorial race has her heart set on becoming a US Senator, is now desperately lobbying Arizona’s Republican state legislators to replace the soon to be implemented total abortion ban with a still onerous 15-week ban, not because she’s had a change of heart about abortion, but because, despite all the anti-abortion rhetoric she previously spouted, she cares little about those “unborn babies,” but cares lots about her political future and fears that hers is now going up in smoke. And Trump, another one whose past pro-choice statements reveal just how little he really cares about who does or doesn’t have an abortion is in a total panic because in addition to craving power he sees winning reelection as the only way to escape the consequences of his criminal actions.  As to those consequences,  he’s due in court next week for the beginning of his New York City election interference/hush money case because despite all of his lawyers’ attempts to get presiding judge Juan Merchan disqualified and to put a halt to the case while his gag order is litigated up the court hierarchy, jury selection begins on Monday. Dust up your playbook, all the characters from the first Trump Act are expected to appear in court, including:  Playmate Karen McDougal, Porn Star Stormy Daniels, National Enquirer Guy David Pecker, onetime fixer/lawyer Michael Cohen, and Hopey Hicks.          

Republicans in Disarray, Again:  Speaker for now Mike Johnson is another one who’s flailing.  MAGA Margie is breathing down his back, threatening to call for a motion to vacate vote if he passes any legislation that aids Ukraine and Trump spoiled his efforts to get FISA surveillance renewal legislation through the Republican dominated House Rules committee. Just a reminder that when she was Speaker, Nancy Pelosi never got hung out to dry by her Rules Committee.  The FISA legislation incudes the reforms that Republicans have been seeking, but with Trump opposing its passage, poor Mikey can’t get it on to the floor for a vote which ironically makes it more likely that FISA will eventually be renewed without those reforms.  Today, Mikey plans to fly to Mar a Lago to kiss Trump’s ring, and by ring think another part of his body, in an effort to make nice with Trump to preserve his job because that’s what being the Republican Speaker requires right now, total and complete obeisance to all things Trump.  Of course, that strategy didn’t pay off for “My Kevin” McCarthy who despite his trips to Mar a Lago did lose his Speakership which explains why the specter of a Hakeem Jeffries Speakership is now once again weighing heavily on the Republican caucus.  One more thing, on the election front, third party candidate Cornell West has selected University Professor/Black Lives Activist Melina Abdullah as his running mate largely because she’s Black and Muslim, two groups that Biden needs to win, and also because she said yes when he called.

Fog:  Plans for a Gaza ceasefire are once again on hold.  Something to do with Hamas’ assertions that they can’t find 40 “qualifying” Israeli hostages to exchange for thousands of their fighters because we are supposed to believe that the same Hamas folks who stealthily built a web of sophisticated tunnels abetted by their rich Qatari friends and probably with an added lift from some in UNWRA and launched a frighteningly effective sneak attack on Israel can’t find the hostages that they abducted?  Sadly, the fears are that those hostages can’t be found because they are already dead or maybe because they’ve been so mistreated that Hamas doesn’t want them to be able to speak about their experiences.  Of even more concern, expectations are that Iran is about to launch an attack momentarily, likely against Israeli targets, but maybe also against other Western targets.  Stay safe everyone.

#BringThemAllHomeNow

              

Raising Arizona ✡️🌻✡️🌻✡️🌻

Grand Canyon: On Monday Trump took to his sinking Truth Social platform to announce his abortion position via   video.  He didn’t back a national ban, instead he said that the regulation of abortion should be left to the states. Trump once again took credit for the Dobbs decision, saying he was “proudly the person responsible” for ending Roe v Wade and he thanked the six conservative Justices for “having the courage” to bring the “long-fought battle over Roe” to its end. His prepared statement, likely the result of a lot of handwringing and word smithing by his advisors who are largely as anti-abortion as one can get but who also know that the abortion issue has the potential to ruin Trump’s chance of returning to the Oval Office, pleased almost no one. The anti-abortion crowd wanted to hear Trump back an onerous national ban, the pro-choice crowd would have preferred that he buy a one-way ticket to Moscow and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham who rarely disagrees with him in public repeated his call for a national ban on abortions after 15 weeks.  As they typically do, the mainstream media went all in on a “both sides” narrative, giving Trump the benefit of the doubt, with headlines and ledes that made his statement seem moderate, a nod to the suburban moms he needs to lure back into his tent.  Then Arizona happened.  On Tuesday, the state’s Supreme Court upheld an 1894 law that bans nearly all abortions. That law which was enacted before Arizona was a state and before women could vote had spent the Roe years in a zombie state but within days it will be the law of the land in Arizona. So much for Trump’s “moderate” position. Arizona’s Governor, Katie Hobbs, and its Attorney General, Kris Mayes, both pro-choice Democrats who won their positions in very close elections, announced yesterday that they will not enforce or prosecute anyone under the reawakened law which calls for 2-to-5-year prison sentences for those assisting in abortions, but their power only goes so far. Neither can prevent local district attorneys from going after abortion providers, nor can they force malpractice insurance providers to continue to provide affordable insurance to doctors and clinics. It’s expected that a measure reinstating the right to abortion will be on the Arizona ballot in November but as in Florida, the hurdle for passage, while attainable, is high. The battle over abortion rights could help Biden who barely won the state in 2020 retake it in 2024, well maybe.  It could also help Democratic Senate candidate/Congressman Ruben Gallego beat his Republican opponent, Kari Lake.  Lake, an avid election denier and Trump supporter, who still hasn’t conceded that she lost her gubernatorial run to Governor Hobbs, endorsed the 1894 law, calling it “great” earlier this month.  Now she’s thrashing out, attacking the state court for its decision, and “blaming” Hobbs, saying that the Governor should “get” the Republican controlled state legislature to pass abortion rights preserving legislation. That’s not going to happen, not because Hobbs doesn’t want it to, but because the legislature is Republican controlled.  Lake knows that but she’s got to say something because she’s sees her Senate chances sinking.  As to Trump, he’s now attacking Lindsey Graham on Truth Social, because he’s his favorite punching bag.       

Legally Yours:  It hasn’t been a good week for Trump in the courts.  His hail Mary attempts to get his New York election interference/hush money case put off continue to fail. First a New York appeals court denied his petition to change the venue and/or put off the start of the case, something to do with all the publicity that he’s helped stoke, then the court rejected his attempt to delay his trial, quickly swatting aside an argument that the trial should be postponed while he fights the gag order he earned by spouting nasty stuff about the families of the presiding judge and the prosecutorial team, ruling that while he can continue to fight the gag order, doing so won’t result in a postponement. Trump and his lawyers are still fighting over procedural issues, the latest one involving witnesses, but odds are that his jury selection will begin for his trial next week. Trump’s lawyers are currently so desperate to deliver him a postponement that they inadvertently subpoenaed the wrong Jeremy Rosenberg in an attempt to get some files and then complained to the court when the hapless fellow had no files to share.  Even Eileen “loose” Cannon, the purloined documents case judge, is giving Trump a hard time.  Last night, while once again throwing shade at her nemesis Special Counsel Jack Smith,  she reversed an earlier decision that would have allowed Trump and his lawyers to share the names of witnesses far and wide, ruling instead that those names can stay sealed.    

Presidential Politics:  Cornell West, the third-party candidate/potential spoiler that few are focusing on right now is expected to name his running mate shortly.  Meantime, RFK Jr, the third-party candidate that everyone is concerned about continues to duck, dodge, and prevaricate.  Earlier this week after a video of one of his New York campaign officials telling Republican voters that they should support RFK Jr because doing so is the best way to prevent Biden’s reelection and ensure a Trump victory went viral, he denied that she works for him even though she definitely does. That’s similar to the way he muddies his anti-vaxx position.  He denies that he’s opposed to all vaccines but when asked to name one he’s okay with, he can’t name one because what’s a little polio, measles or whooping cough among friends?.  RFK, who’s also taken to the Trumpian view that those found guilty of storming the Capitol after the last presidential election are really just nice patriotic tourists being unfairly punished, is opposed to Biden because he’s pissed that the Biden administration persuaded Twitter and the other social media websites to take down his conspiracy laden anti-vaccine posts during the height of the COVID epidemic.  Maybe heroin and steroids do weird things to the brain?  On the subject of nepotism,  Jared Kushner’s business ventures are getting some renewed attention, something about all those foreign entities investing billions with him despite his lack of an investment track record. Makes Hunter’s transgressions, well except for the gun thing, look like a nothing burger. Lastly, keep an eye on Ohio and Alabama.  Both states’ election officials are threatening to keep Biden off the ballot, something to do with the Democratic convention, and Biden’s official anointment as the Democratic candidate, being too late to qualify for their state ballots. The timing “problem” has happened before but that was back in the day when state election officials were relatively normal and accommodating.  To state the obvious, times have changed. 

#BringThemAllHomeNow

 
Turn Around Bright Eyes ✡️🌻✡️🌻✡️🌻

A Little Bit Nervous:   First a bridge fell down, then an earthquake in NY centered not far from Ivana’s burial site (!), and now an eclipse of the sun.  What’s next?  Frogs, pestilence, storms of hail and fire?  Or even worse, another Trump presidency?  To that end Trump reports that this weekend he raised $50 million for his campaign and to pay his legal bills at a Mar a Lago big donor fundraiser.   We won’t know for sure how much Trump really raised until his campaign makes its next official report so like most things related to Trump and money, we should take his braggadocio with a grain of salt.  That said, he probably did raise lots of money from the usual crowd of mega donors more concerned about their tax rates and rolling back curbs on fossil fuels than leaving an intact democracy to their children and grandchildren.  Naturally, Trump entertained attendees with a speech peppered with his usual amount of hate and anti-migrant rhetoric.  He again lamented that few were migrating here from “good”  (i.e. white) countries like Denmark and Switzerland while so many were coming from the places he previously referred to as sh-t holes (i.e. not white). He also warned his guests that if he wasn’t put back in charge, 93% white Palm Beach would soon become like neighboring West Palm Beach which is “only” 37.5% white. The shudders at Mar a Lago over the thought of that probably rivaled the NY quake’s tremors.  

A Little Bit Terrified:  While the specter of another Trump presidency is enough to keep many of us up at night, Trump who gets that abortion policy could be the thing that determines whether he spends the next four years in a jail cell or back in the Oval Office spent his night on Truth Social posting that he would be announcing his abortion policy this morning.  Don’t be fooled by anything he says, while he posted a word salad about facilitating care for rape and incest victims and for protecting the lives of mothers and hinted that he would support federal legislation that wouldn’t be as stringent as Florida’s soon to be implemented six-week ban, all he cares about is winning reelection to stay out of jail.  His words won’t mean squat.  We know that because he ended his post by saying “We must use common sense in realizing that we have an obligation to the salvation of our Nation, which is currently in serious DECLINE, TO WIN ELECTIONS, without which we will have nothing other than failure, death, and destruction.”  Any national legislation would limit abortion availability in states where it currently remains available along the lines previously determined by Roe, and if we’ve learned anything from Texas, that promise to protect the life of the mother does nothing when it matters most. It should go without saying but still must be said repeatedly: Trump is the one most responsible for the Dobbs decision that overturned Roe because not only did he appoint the three Justices who made that decision possible, but he continues to brag about doing so with “his” Justices.  As to the election, add Arizona to the list of states where an abortion referendum could be on the ballot.  Pro-choice organizers have already collected around 500,000 signatures, close to 120,000 more than the 383,000 they need to put a constitutional amendment on the state ballot in November.  In all 3.3 million Arizonans voted in the last presidential election, making that 500,000 number even more impressive, and the signature number is still growing since the petition isn’t due into the state until early July.   Trump has every reason to be nervous about the impact of the abortion issue on the election which is why his abortion rhetoric is going to go all in on ducking and weaving because if we’ve learned anything by now it’s that he’s the master of the Big Lie, and he’s about to add another one to his usual rinse and repeat mendacious mix tape.     

A Total Eclipse of the Sun:  On Friday I attended a lunch meeting with relatives of four of the families whose elderly parents, siblings, and/or children are still being held hostage by Hamas.  Some of them also saw their relatives killed on October 7 or have since received notice that one or more of the family members who they either knew or hoped were still alive are dead. As one of them pointed out, every six days they learn that one more of the hostages has either died or has been dead since October 7.   They were all remarkably stoic but also appeared wan and shattered, what you’d expect from people who’ve suffered the worst and are still suffering. Their recounting of the events of October 7 and how they learned and continue to learn about their relatives’ murder and suffering reminded me of 9.11, when we all hoped and prayed that our friends who’d called from their offices or from staircases would survive only to learn that so many hadn’t.  Remarkably given their pain, all of the hostage families expressed concern for the suffering in Gaza.  All they want and all they’re focused on is getting their relatives, and in some cases the bodies of their relatives, brought home.  They fear that they’re being left behind, stuck in a blame game maelstrom that’s out of their control.  Let’s not let that happen.  Let’s not forget them.   

#BringThemAllHomeNow   

 

From Russia With Love ✡️🌻✡️🌻✡️🌻

Bond, Don Bond? With both houses of Congress still on Easter break, nothing much is happening on the legislative front, not that much happens when Speaker Mike Johnson and his do-nothing crowd is in session but that’s another story.  However, things are bubbling away on the legal front. Raise your hand if you had Trump’s bond being disqualified on your BINGO card?  It hasn’t been DQed yet, but it could be because it turns out that the $175 million bond that Trump posted with the court to prevent NY Attorney General Tish James from glomming on to his assets may not be kosher. Knight Specialty Insurance Company, the entity providing the bond, failed to provide a complete set of financials in its initial bond paperwork filing. Upon notification that their filing was incomplete, they provided more information, but unfortunately for Trump that information reveals that Knight isn’t as liquid as they need to be, or at the very least as liquid as New York law requires that they be.  NY law limits how much money state-regulated surety companies can post on a single bond to 10% of their total capital surplus.  Knight’s surplus is only $138 million, meaning that the bond they provided Trump is 137% of their dedicated reserves, far in excess of the 10% limit.  Knight’s position is that since they aren’t registered to operate in New York, the state’s capital adequacy requirements don’t apply to them. It’s far from clear that pointing out that they aren’t registered in New York is a winning strategy.  Moreover, the point of the 10% limitation is to ensure that bond companies have the ability to fund their obligations if and when they are called upon to do so, the whole purpose of a bond in the first place. To determine whether or not the Knight bond is valid, Judge Erdogan, who is overseeing Trump’s fraud case, has called all the lawyers to appear back in court on April 22.  At least for now it looks like Trump who needs the bond because he was found guilty of fraudulently cooking his books may be using, or at the very least trying to use, a bond from a company who is playing sleight of hand with theirs. That’s probably not all that surprising given Trump’s history and does anyone think that any of his voters will care, especially since he’s already going with his usual defense, that he’s being unfairly prosecuted and it’s all a witch hunt. By the way, keep an eye on his Trump Social stock (DJT on the NASDAQ), it continues to head south and it’s just a matter of time before lawsuits and/or an SEC investigation starts hunting for witches there too. Curiously, The Guardian reports that in 2022, a Russian-American banker named Anton Postolnikov used a trust to facilitate a loan to help save Trump Media and Truth Social.  Postolnikov who is under investigation by the FBI is the nephew of Aleksandr Smirnov, an ally of Putin. Das Vedanya.    

Legal Morass: Trump’s legal problems extend beyond the New York fraud case.  Yesterday, Judge Merchan who is overseeing his NY election interference/hush money case denied his last-ditch attempt to push off the trial until after SCOTUS decides his presidential immunity case telling Trump that he’d waited too long to play the immunity card. Absent another wrinklie, and this being Trump there could be one, the election interference/hush money case will proceed on April 15 which is also the date that Trump will not reveal his tax filings because of his forever audit 😊.  In Georgia where Trump and his codefendants are appealing the judge’s decision to allow DA Fani Willis to continue prosecuting her election interference RICO case, presiding Judge McAfee upheld the criminal indictment against Trump, rejecting the argument that Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election were protected under the Frist Amendment by concluding that overturning an election does not count as protected political speech.  The judge has not yet set a trial date; Willis is pressing to start arguing her case in August, Trump is pressing for never.  There was also news yesterday on the Mar a Lago purloined document case, the one that should be a slam dunk for prosecutors but isn’t because of Judge Aileen “loose” Cannon’s questionable decisions and stalling tactics.  Yesterday Judge Cannon rejected Trump’s bid to have his charges of mishandling classified documents dismissed on the grounds that his argument that the Presidential Protection Act trumped the Espionage Act and protected him from prosecution didn’t cut it.  That’s the good news, the not so good news is that Cannon appears to be standing by her request that lawyers on both sides provide alternative jury instructions based on what Special Counsel Jack Smith and most other lawyers familiar with the case believe reveals either an ignorance of applicable law and/or pro-Trump bias that will make it possible for her to dismiss the charges against Trump after a jury is seated. Once a jury is seated, it will be too late for Smith to appeal her decision.  There’s still a chance that Smith takes the unprecedented step of requesting her recusal but at least for now, he doesn’t appear to have the technical grounds to do so.  While Trump’s stalling tactics are costly, they continue to keep him from suffering legal consequences. However, John Eastman and Jeffrey Clark, two of the lawyers associated with Trump, appear to have run out of rope. A judge in California issued an order last week which recommended that John Eastman be stripped of his law license. The judge found that Eastman had breached professional ethics rules by pushing a “strategy to challenge the results of the 2020 election that lacked evidentiary or legal support.” Eastman hasn’t been officially disbarred yet, but his license is now “involuntarily inactive” while he appeals, assuming he can raise the money for an appeal.  Jeffrey Clark who for a brief minute was a Trump Acting Attorney General, is one step closer to losing his license to practice law too.  Yesterday a Washington DC Bar committee ruled that he violated at least one rule of ethics and should be professionally sanctioned as in disbarred for trying to use the Department of Justice’s “influence” to help reverse Trump’s 2020 election defeat. 

Political Games:  The No Labels party announced yesterday that they are giving up on their plan to run a third- party candidate for president primarily because despite their efforts they couldn’t find any credible candidates interested in being their candidate. Apparently, neither Tulsi Gabbard nor RFK Jr met their standards. That’s good news, especially for President Biden, but unfortunately nepo/anti-vaxxer RFK Jr is still running and though no one is certain whether his run will take more votes from Biden than from Trump, a lot of his financial support comes from Trump supporting billionaires who clearly think that supporting RFK will cut into Biden’s base more than Trump’s.

Fog:  Biden and Netanyahu are on the outs, not all that surprising since Bibi, deservedly, isn’t all that popular with many but a really bad thing for Israel which can’t afford to lose friends at a time when it is losing the PR war to Hamas. Think about that, the guys who murdered, raped, and took hostages on October 7 are now the good guys? This morning after finding that serious errors and protocol violations took place, Israel fired two officers responsible for the strikes that killed the World Central Kitchen workers.  Has Hamas fired those responsible for October 7?  How will a ceasefire work when Hamas routinely breaks them, Israel has a compromised leader, and the hostages are still hostages. #Sigh        

#BringThemAllHomeNow

Evan too!

Flo Rida ✡️🌻✡️🌻✡️🌻

I Don’t Like it, I Love it:   First the bad news, on Monday Florida’s Supreme Court pulled a SCOTUS by ruling that the state’s constitutional guarantee of privacy no longer covers the right to abortion.  Their decision means that the state’s current ban on abortions after fifteen weeks of pregnancy is legal and, far worse, that the six-week ban that had been on hold pending Monday’s ruling will go into effect in thirty days. That’s a huge problem, not just for Floridians, but for residents of a number of neighboring states who flocked to Florida in droves for their reproductive care. The potentially good news is that the court also signed off on the wording of Constitutional Amendment #4 which if passed will return the right to abortion in Florida to where it was before Roe was overturned by Dobbs.   Amendment 4 will be on the November ballot, giving Floridians the ability to vote to legalize abortion, something that voters already did in Ohio and Kansas.  Those states are “redder” than Florida.  The Ohio amendment passed with 57% of the vote and the Kansas vote passed with 59%; however, at 60%, Florida’s amendment hurdle is higher, so passage of Amendment 4 is not a slam dunk.  The amendment enshrining abortion rights won’t be the only one on the ballot, Florida’s Supreme Court also signed off on another amendment that if passed will legalize the recreational use of marijuana.  And, of course, the November ballot will also include the presidential race, as well as races for the House and Senate.  It’s not clear if the inclusion of abortion and weed on the ballot will tilt the presidential race sufficiently towards Biden to allow him to notch a state win given that the Orange man now calls Florida his home, but it could move some voters and will almost certainly increase turnout, typically a plus for Democrats which explains why Trump who stocked SCOTUS with anti-abortion justices is facing a conundrum, now promising to make a statement on abortion in “two weeks.”  The abortion and weed amendments make the Senate race between Republican incumbent Rick Scott and his Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell one to watch. Scott barely won his last race and though he’s got boatloads of money, he’s not all that popular for lots of reasons including that the company he headed was convicted of committing 14 felony counts of Medicare and Medicaid fraud for which it was fined $1.7 billion and because of his on again, off again advocacy for sunsetting Social Security and Medicare, particularly popular among Florida alta kockers (Yiddish for crochety old folks 😂😂), so a ballot that includes the legalization of abortion and weed could lift Murcasel-Powell into the Senate. Floridians VOTE!

Bond, Don Bond: On the subject of alta kockers, the most aggrieved one has posted the $175 million bond that he needed for his New York fraud case.  Trump secured that bond from a subsidiary of Knight Insurance which is owned by Don Hankey, a California billionaire 💰 💰 who achieved his $7 billion net worth providing very high interest sub-prime auto loans to challenged borrowers.  Hankey, a Trump supporter, said that since many of the people his company lends to lie on their loan applications, he could relate to Trump’s habit of lying on his.  Not so coincidentally, Hankey is also the largest individual shareholder of Axos Bank, the online company that lent Trump’s businesses $225 million in the aftermath of January 6 after other mainstream financial institutions stopped doing business with him. Although Hankey insists that his decision to provide the bond wasn’t political, who is he kidding? And given his net worth, would it surprise anyone if Hankey waived repayment at some future date?  As to questionable financial situations, Trump Media and Technology Group whose only asset is Trump Social reported that it lost $58 million during 2023 and its auditor warned that those losses raise substantial doubt about its ability to stay in business. The value of the company’s NASDAQ traded stock dropped 21% after the report was released, but it still remains hugely, with an emphasis on hugely, overvalued because its valuation has little to do with its business but lots to do with Trump’s being its majority owner.  It’s increasingly obvious that most investors in Trump Media are in the stock because they are Trump fans who see buying the stock as just another way to transfer wealth to him, either because they worship the ground he walks on or, in the case of large investors, because they hope to get something bigly in return.  So far Trump hasn’t been able to cash out of any of his shares but since the company’s board is made up of his friends and family, including Don Jr, his one-time trade representative Robert Lighthizer, his former SBA Administrator Linda McMahon, former Republican Congressman Devin Nunes, and his one-time National Security advisor Kash Patel, its fair to assume that when he’s ready to sell they’ll vote to lift any restrictions. Should Trump sell, the stock will dive further but so it goes.

Legal Morass:  In response to Trump continuing to attack his daughter and just about everyone else associated with the NY election interference/hush money case, presiding Judge Juan Merchan has expanded his gag order to cover his, DA Alvin Bragg’s, and the other prosecutors’ families. The Judge called Trump out for his vitriolic attacks saying they serve no other purpose than intimidation. So far Trump hasn’t attacked his one-time fave, Hope Hicks, but he might as reports are that she, like Stormy Daniels and Michael Cohen, will be testifying in the hush money case. Oddly enough, there’s one judge Trump hasn’t attacked: District Judge Eileen Cannon.  Last night Special Counsel Jack Smith who has just about had it with Judge Cannon, called out the jury instructions she requested for the purloined documents case she continues to stall for being “based on a fundamentally flawed legal premise,” warning that he may appeal if she rules against him. Unfortunately, Cannon who appears to be positioning herself for a higher federal judicial appointment in a future Trump administration, is hard to replace because if it was easy, Smith would have already had her kicked to the curb.  As to Trump, the very right-wing crowd putting together the plans for his “second” term, want to eliminate the prohibition against presidents running for a third term. I kid you not. 

House Politics: Reports are that Speaker for now Mike Johnson is likely to finally allow a vote on some form of aid to Ukraine.  When he does, expect some fireworks as some members of his Republican caucus, think Margie Q but some others as well, say that providing aid to Ukraine will be the death knell for his Speakership. Depending on when the Ukraine vote takes place, Lauren Boebert may not be there.  She had emergency surgery in Colorado to remove a life-threatening blood clot from her hip yesterday and though she’s expected to recover she probably will spend some time on the no-fly list.  She’s not the only one down for the count, Arizona Democrat Raul Grijalva revealed that while seeking treatment for a persistent cough, he was diagnosed with cancer and though he plans to seek reelection, he hasn’t attended a roll call since mid-February.  It’s not unusual for members of Congress to get sick, miss votes, or even die during a session but given that the balance of power in this Congress is hanging by a thread, the loss of any one member could have significant consequences.  

Fog:  And by fog, think fog and darkness of night.  Israel inadvertently bombed a caravan carrying World Central Kitchen aid workers who were providing food to Gaza.  That’s tragic, and sadly, not uncommon in war zones.  Israel’s military has admitted its awful mistake, but they continue to lose the PR war to Hamas who never apologizes, the humanitarian workers are dead, and the hostages, at least those who haven’t already been killed, are still hostages. 

#BringThemAllHomeNow