Sixty-Five Days😱 ✡️🌻 😱 🚀🚢

Oil, War, Maps:  The White House periodically sends out mass emails detailing Trump’s accomplishments. This weekend’s missive announced that the administration had secured majority control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuela’s oil, that the US controls the Strait of Hormuz, and that Lake Ontario has been renamed Lake America.  Putting aside the ethics of glomming onto another country’s oil, the 65 billion barrels that Trump claims to have secured are mythical at best since those barrels will only become accessible at some future day after major investment in Venezuela’s infrastructure takes place meaning that the White House’s assertion the stolen oil will immediately augment the US’s strategic reserve, currently at its lowest level since 1982, is bogus. The strategic petroleum reserve is at historically low levels due to the festering Iran mess where, despite the White House’s assertion, the US does not control the Strait of Hormuz.  Before the war 100 to 140 ships passed through the Strait daily, currently the daily volume is 10 to 14 ships, hardly an indication of US control. Yesterday’s attack by US forces of two Iranian rocket launchers trying to place sea mines into the Strait followed by Iran’s overnight retaliatory strikes on a US base in Jordan provides further evidence that the administration’s control claim is just more fiction. Even worse, the Washington Post reports that the US’s top military leaders formally pushed back against the continuation of military operations, including the moving of more carriers into the Middle east, warning War/Beer Secretary Hegseth that doing so threatens the US’s global military readiness. Naturally, Hegseth who can’t figure out why his efforts to restrict press access has done little to restrict accurate reporting and how, after he fired so many generals and admirals and ordered testosterone shots for “his” troops, he is still getting pushback, called the report fake news.  Giving credit where credit is due, Trump really did rename Lake Ontario.  That he renamed the lake in a fit of pique is pathetic, Google Map’s decision to go with its “new” name is embarrassing, more evidence of how low some US corporations will go to keep in Trump’s good graces.  In any case renaming a Great Lake does nothing to solve the affordability problem, but then again Trump keeps saying that affordability is a word invented by radical left wing Dumocrats and he’s got access to billions of federal funds for his pet projects, and he and his kids keep getting richer so he doesn’t really care.

Midterm Madness:  Today’s NY Post, generally reliably pro-Trump,  reports that aggregate polling data show Republicans trailing in eight battleground Senate races:  “down 2 points in Alaska, 7.5 points in Georgia,  2.3 points in Maine, 1.8 points in Michigan, 2.6 points in Ohio, 2 points in New Hampshire, 8 points in North Carolina, and 1.9 points in Texas.”  In addition, the polling data indicate that Republicans are only up by 1.4 points in Iowa.  With the exception of North Carolina and Georgia, these polls are within the margin of error and if we’ve learned anything by now, polls are frequently wrong and in the Trump era often underestimate Republican strength. That said, the polls do go far to explaining Trump’s ongoing efforts to limit mail-in ballots and otherwise squelch voting.  Michigan Democrat Senate candidate Abdul El Sayed who barely won his primary despite polls that showed him way ahead of his competitor is now working to bolster his lead by reaching out to his state’s skeptical Jewish voters, to convince them that his earlier comments, like one where he expressed sympathy for the bomber of a suburban Detroit, may have been a bit insensitive.  However, since he’s still unwilling to throw shade on the left’s current anti-Semitic darling Hasan Piker whose position is that pro-Israel Jews are responsible for the increasing number of anti-Semitic acts, it’s hard to see his outreach as anything more than a hollow political move.  The affinity for Hasan Piker, and the debate as to whether Democratic candidates should keep him by their side is hard to stomach, providing evidence that anti-Semitism is a both sides problem.  And it is a both sides problem, as evidenced by the June and July X (twitter) posts of swastikas, racial slurs, "white power" references, and an image showing himself in Ku Klux Klan robes that Preston Parra who was then an aide and campaign fundraiser for Georgia’s Republican Senate candidate/Congressman Mike Collins shared for all to see.  Collins is running against incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff who is Jewish, a point that Parra was likely trying to hammer home to voters who miss the days when white robes were in vogue.  Speaking of vogue, style not the magazine, it’s hard to understand why the Metropolitan Museum’s Fashion Institute has decided to honor designer John Galliano at its next Met Gala currently scheduled to take place on Holocaust Remembrance Day Yom HaShoah.  Apparently it’s okay that Galliano’s anti-Semitic rants mostly occurred when he was drunk. Alcohol loosens inhibitions it doesn’t turn you into an anti-Semite or a racist unless you are one. What’s next, honoring Nick Fuentes and David Dukes on Martin Luther King day?  Tomorrow is primary day in Massachusetts, where 80-year-old Democratic Senator Ed Markey is expected to easily beat    his Democratic competitor 47-year-old Congressman Seth Moulton because apparently we need to keep another 80-year-old in office?  Has anyone seen Mitch McConnell lately?     

Literally More 💩:  To save money, the US Department of Agriculture is shelving cyclospora research projects despite the fact that more than 17000 have been sickened by cyclospora this summer.  

 

 

Peak Stupid 😱 ✡️🌻 😱 🚀🚢

HOMES:  HOMES is right there with SOH CAH TOA, one of the acronyms that most of us learned to help with the memorization of the names of the five Great Lakes.  The good news is that SOH CAH TOA hasn’t been banished from trigonometry class.  The bad news is that HOMES will no longer do it for geography because to punish our Canadian neighbors for failing to concede to his changing trade demands, yesterday petulant binky baby Trump issued an executive order changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America and HAMES, a real word defined as the two curved pieces of metal or wood attached to a draft horse's collar, just doesn’t cut it.  It would be nice to believe that we’ve reached peak stupid, but sadly Trump who is growing increasingly panicked about the midterms has nothing but stupid left in his addled brain.  A lot of the stupid concerns voting, not what Trump can do to appeal to more voters, but what he can do to disrupt the upcoming elections.  Though Trump votes by mail he doesn’t want anyone likely to vote blue to do the same.  Late yesterday, Massachusetts based federal district court judge Indira Talwani issued a new temporary restraining order against Trump’s order to the Postal Service that it sit on ballots that he doesn’t want delivered and counted. Talwani’s ruling, which applies to all the states, sets the stage for consideration of the legality of Trump’s Executive Order by the Supreme Court whose earlier ruling allowing Trump’s voter squelching order to remain in place was only about the appropriateness of the Court ruling before the Postal Service had issued its final regulations, not about the substance of the Executive Order. With only 63 days left before the midterms, less when you count early voting, and with ballots about to be sent out, there’s not much time left for the Supreme Court to upend the midterms, not that some of them, but hopefully not a majority, won’t try. 

MAHA Not:  The US has reported 2,777 confirmed measles cases so far this year, the highest annual count since measles was declared eliminated in the US.  Those are just the reported cases; the actual case count is probably higher. This week it was reported that two Pennsylvanians, both unvaccinated, one an infant, had died after contracting the preventable disease.  Taking a page from the anti-vax playbook he authored, Health Secretary RFK, is now challenging whether those deaths were really from measles and not from something else like pneumonia or Trump derangement syndrome.  Don’t be fooled by RFK’s rhetoric or his attacking of Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro, something else that he’s been doing,  the deaths were measles related. Moreover, since one way that measles kills is by causing brain inflammation, it’s likely that there will be a few more deaths related to this year’s outbreak, some of them showing up years from now. Not that Senator Darline Graham cares much about that.  Fresh off of her primary win, Lindsey’s sister was out campaigning against universal health care, saying that her “parents worked long, hard hours to make ends meet…. If they were sick, they had to get up and go to work.” A strange talking point for someone whose financially stressed parents, who couldn’t afford health care died when she an adolescent; right up there with Iowa Senator Joni Ernst’s dismissing one of her constituent's concerns about Medicaid cuts leading to deaths by responding, "Well, we all are going to die.” Not long after making that remark, Ernst announced that she would not be running for reelection. Iowa’s Senate race between Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson and State Representative Democrat Josh Turek is now rated a “toss up.”  Unfortunately, it’s unlikely that the Trump endorsed Darline will follow suit or that South Carolina’s seat will fall out of Republican hands.  Turning back to RFK, recently released communication indicates that he lied to Congress when he said that the trip where he dissed vaccines to vulnerable Samoans wasn’t related to vaccines, not that lying to Congress gets Republicans into trouble anymore. In other health related news, COVID which never really left is back, doing its late summer thing.  New shots for the newest strain were approved by the FDA this week and should be available at your local pharmacy shortly.  

 More 💩:  The Iran mess is still a mess, and the Ukraine war is still a war.  CIA Director John Ratcliffe has just returned from a secret, unusual trip to Moscow.  Trump wants us to believe that Ratcliffe’s trip was routine.  It wasn’t, CIA Directors don’t make routine trips to Moscow.  The mostly likely reason for Ratcliffe’s trip is that despite Trump’s insistence that Putin is a nice guy, he isn’t.  Russia is getting more dangerous and reports are that the administration wanted to warn Putin against escalating, and by escalating think maybe dropping a nuke on Ukraine or invading a small Eastern European country or both.  There’s fraud news out of Florida, not surprising given that Trump resides at Mar a Lago and Senator Rick Scott’s association with the largest ever Medicaid and Medicare fraud.  The most recent news involves the leaking of grand jury testimony about how Governor Ron DeSantis’ wife Casey received $10 million from a state Medicaid settlement.  The money was supposed to go to her Hope Charity but was instead diverted it to the Governor’s anti marijuana legalization political campaign. Senator Ashley Moody who DeSantis appointed to replace Secretary of State Marco Rubio is implicated in the scandal as is his former chief of staff James Uthmeier, who he has since appointed state Attorney General.  The Grand Jury did not charge anyone, not because they didn’t believe there was corruption but because none of the people implicated were willing to talk.  Finally, there is one piece of positive news in an otherwise bleak weak that saw us lose Dolly Parton and Tim Curry.  The father of one of sailors on the US Lincoln who had been arrested by ICE has been released from custody, probably because someone figured out that the optics of grabbing him was bad. That’s good for him but the same can’t be said for lots of others including some very young children who’ve been rounded up even though none of them, adults or children, are dangerous.         

Be A Dolly 😱 ✡️🌻 😱 🚀🚢 🗳️ 👱‍♀️

The World: Yesterday Treasury Secretary Bessent detailed the onerous new sanctions intended to “cripple” Iran that the administration plans to impose on Iran, its trading partners, and complicit financial institutions.  He then said that the new sanctions wouldn’t be imposed immediately because the US does not want to "blow up" or crash the global financial system 🤦‍♀️. China which buys 80% of Iran’s oil exports responded by denouncing the threatened sanctions, calling them illegal while warning that it would retaliate, taking “all necessary measures” to protect its national interests. So much for solving the Iran crisis that Trump created and forcing the opening of the Strait of Hormuz through “crippling” sanctions rather than the kinetic warfare that has already failed to achieve the desired results.   As to bombing Iran to achieve regime change, the WSJ reports that before he made the decision to attack, Trump was warned by some of his military advisors and then DNI Tulsi Gabbard that bombs wouldn’t achieve his objectives,  that instead they would harden Iran’s resistance and could lead to the closing of the Strait. That’s not much of a bombshell, so it’s fair to assume that some of the sources for the WSJ article include people surrounding Veep Vance, who wants us all to know that he was one of those most skeptical of embarking on the Iran “skirmish.” With the midterms soon to be in the rearview window, Vance is starting to do a Trump distancing jig, prepping himself for 2028. Unfortunately, that jig doesn’t include crossing Trump on Canada.  Vance has been out and about defending Trump’s insane anti-Canada actions, even going so far as “accidentally” referring to Canada as a state.  Our neighbors to the north who, despite Transportation Secretary/Reality guy Sean Duffy’s assertion otherwise, have long been a loyal military ally, have now unleashed retaliatory sanctions. Canada is unlikely to forgive us anytime soon even if we are lucky enough to someday replace Trump with someone sane. Hopefully, voters in the state’s most affected by Trump’s Canada sanctions understand who is responsible for their pain.         

Elections 🗳️: On the domestic front, the Supreme Court issued another one of its shadow docket rulings on Monday, allowing the Trump administration to begin implementing the mail-in voting restrictions that Trump announced by executive fiat earlier this year.  That’s bad news, but not as bad as it sounds because SCOTUS justified its ruling by saying that it was premature for them to rule on the legality of Trump’s restrictions until the US Postal Service issued its final regulations.  Also, there is another lower court order that continues to stay Trump’s Executive Order. Adding to the confusion, the Post Office actually has issued final regulations but somehow or other SCOTUS hit the button to release it’s ruling without first checking its inbox. The bottom line is that at least for now, nothing has really changed and some states will be sending out absentee ballots for the midterms shortly. Additionally, states opposing Trump’s voter squelching Executive Order have already filed new lawsuits. That’s not to say that we shouldn’t be concerned but it’s unlikely that this order will be the thing that topples the upcoming midterms, which isn’t to say that something else like troops at polling places won’t.  As to elections, lifted by Trump’s endorsement and further helped by his weekend campaigning, Darline Graham defeated her opponent Congressman Ralph Norman in yesterday’s South Carolina Senate runoff.  As a result, she will be the state’s Republican’s Senate nominee and likely November winner. She’s obviously unqualified but it’s not like Norman, an extremist and an election denier was such a good option either.  For South Carolina’s voters it was slim pickings. And anyway, with Tommy Tuberville still in the Senate, at least until January when he’s likely to become Alabama’s Governor, she’s not the least qualified Senator around.

More 💩:  The DOJ is now threatening that Trump will demolish the “structurally and financially unstable” Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, replacing it with a large outdoor amphitheater, if he doesn’t get to close it for two years for the “renovation” that only he with his real estate and construction skills is capable of doing.  They also insist that he must be allowed to keep his name emblazoned on its wall.  The USS Abraham Lincoln is on its way home but unless someone in the administration develops a conscience, sailor Joshua Aviles’ father won’t be there to greet him because he’s been arrested by ICE.  Aviles’ father who has a legal work permit and has been in the US for 19-years was arrested by ICE over the weekend because that’s how we reward a parent whose son grew up to be a member of the US military..

RIP 👱‍♀️:   Dolly Parton was the best of us. Her legacy extends far beyond her music. Her charitable endeavors, estimated to amount to $600 million, included providing books to children, funding scholarships, donating to hurricane and flood relief, quietly funding uniforms for minority bands, and helping finance the Moderna COVID vaccine. Eighty years of Dolly wasn’t enough.

 

 

Happy Meals  🍔🍔   😱 ✡️🌻 😱 🚀🚢 🗳️

O Canada!  Trying to make sense about much of what the Trump administration does is a fool’s errand, so understanding why, with the midterms looming, we’re in a trade war with Canada is hard to fathom.   Last week it looked like a tariff deal with Canada had been worked out, at least until Friday night when Trump posted that the war was back on and that he was imposing 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods including alcohol, clothing, personal goods, sports equipment, and holiday items.  Among the goods impacted by the tariffs are Canadian whiskeys, anoraks and overcoats, hockey sticks, and Christmas decorations.  Both sides are pointing fingers at each other for the deal falling apart, with American negotiators claiming that after the deal was essentially set the Canadians asked for more concessions and the Canadians saying that internal US disagreement sunk what they thought was a done deal. Reports are that the Canadians have it right because apparently the problem was an internal disagreement between the American negotiating team led by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick who at the last minute put the kibosh on the deal over the components of trade that fall under the Commerce Department’s jurisdiction. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Canada will begin imposing retaliatory tariffs on US goods on September 8.  Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew summed up the situation by saying that Trump is "not to be trusted" because you "you can't make a good deal with a bad person.”  The war with Canada is on though it will probably be resolved, or partially resolved, before the war with Iran is because that one continues to fester.

Where’s the Beef:  Trump who is looking chubbier everyday doesn’t appear concerned about what his fight with Canada will do to affordability, but he is hyper focused on hamburgers 🍔🍔.  On Friday he announced that he will allow for up to 300,000 metric tons of ground beef to be imported into the US tariff free. He said that he will sign his new beef agreement in two weeks (it’s always two weeks), and that the imported beef, which will mostly come from Argentina, will be sold into the US at a 25% discount. US cattlemen whose profits are already down and will now be down even more weren’t consulted and aren’t happy about Trump’s deal.  Trump’s response to them is that those nice Argentine cattlemen are suffering so he needs to help them out, especially if helping them out brings down some of the inflation that he’s caused with his Iran war, not that he admits to there being affordability issues and anyway if there are any, they’re Biden’s fault. It is a bit weird that Trump appears to be angering Texas and Michigan voters with his trade policies in the run up to the midterms given that the two states have competitive Senate races that could impact who controls the Senate next year but then again he’s doing everything he can to make it harder for Democratic leaning people to vote so maybe he just wants to bring down the cost of his Happy Meals 🍟 🍔and hates Canadians?  

More 💩 :  Supreme Court Chief Justice Roberts gave Trump the go ahead to keep building his East Wing ballroom/military installation while the whole Court considers whether his building project is legally permitted. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that SCOTUS will ultimately rule in his favor possibly justifying its ultimate decision by saying that the project is a fait accompli.  A few more 🐀s have announced plans to leave the Trump ship though not all of them are going far, as a few, like former Press Secretary Leavitt are just moving to campaign jobs with pro-Trump political entities. The soon to leave crowd includes Ed Martin, the election denying Director of the DOJ’s Weaponization Group, who was at one point an unconfirmable Acting US Attorney for Washington DC.  Martin is going to a pro-Trump law firm where he’ll be focusing on undoing election results that Trump doesn’t like. Reports are that Army Secretary Dan Driscoll will be leaving his role at the Pentagon at the end of the year.  He’s a part of Veep Vance camp who has been involved in a “turf war” with Secretary of War and Beer Hegseth.  Word is that Hegseth wants Driscoll ousted because he fears that if Driscoll’s nearby when Trump needs someone to hold responsible for the Iran mess, Driscoll will be Hegseth’s replacement. Not leaving, or at least not so far, is comfort binky Natalie whose love letters to Trump are even weirder than first reported and who managed to avoid getting security vetted for a year.  Kudos to Face the Nation’s Margaret Brennan for staying focused on Trump and RFK’s vaccine idiocy.  She backed Dr Oz into a corner, getting him to say that the MMR vaccine is not lethal despite Trump’s claim otherwise. It was kind of fun watching Oz squirm as he tried hard to avoid answering Brennan’s repeated question.  Tuesday is runoff day in Georgia and South Carolina and primary day in Oklahoma.  The South Carolina runoff is for Lindsey Graham’s seat. Trump who has recently seen a few of the candidates he endorsed lose, campaigned over the weekend for Lindsey’s sister Darline, not because the South Carolina seat won’t stay red regardless of who wins the runoff but because he’s nervous about another one of his endorsement recipients losing.  Proving that elections, even the local ones that don’t get much national attention matter, last week the Democrat’s hold on the Pennsylvania House got a little less tenuous after a Democrat flipped what had been a Trump plus 18 points/Republican plus 30 points seat. Another warning about polls, it turns out that some recent ones weren’t just statistically junky, they were totally fabricated. The faux polls which were produced by a previously unknown organization Median Strategies include one that showed Wisconsin Governor candidate Francesca Hong up by over 20 points in the race that she ultimately lost to David Crowley and a more recent one that showed LA Mayor Karen Bass leading her opponent Nithya Raman by roughly 12 points.  Ignore the polls and vote!

Twister 😱 ✡️🌻 😱 🚀🚢 🗳️

War and Debt:  With bombs and missiles not doing the job, Trump has pivoted to threatening to destroy Iran’s economy, by taking “the MOST CRUSHING ECONOMIC OPERATION EVER TAKEN AGAINST ANY COUNTRY.”  His Truth Social post is being echoed by Treasury Secretary Bessent who says that the threatened economic action will begin on Monday which sounds an awful lot like a version of Trump’s “in two weeks.” Bessent, who also said that he doesn’t understand the spike in oil prices and that fewer jobs are okay because we’ve deported so many workers, is either very stupid, really disingenuous or both.  It’s not just oil prices that are spiking; long term Treasury rates are too, they’ve reached levels not seen since 2007.  To quote economist/Wharton professor Mohammed El-Erian who called the rise in Treasury yields “breathtaking,” the rate increase is due to “stubborn” inflation,  government debt ballooning to $40 trillion and fiscal deficits, and the “sting of higher gas and diesel prices due to the war in Iran” combined with the “staggering” growth in borrowing by technology companies and the “diminished appetite” for Treasuries by traditional international purchasers. In layman’s term, Trump’s tax cuts plus war plus the enormous funding requirements to build AI infrastructure plus fewer Treasury buyers equals higher borrowing costs, including mortgage rates.  Remember when Trump said that he’d eliminate the national debt, lower interest rates, get rid of “Biden’s” inflation, and that his Iran war would be over in four to five weeks. Forget about it.    

Peeps: In 2003 Barbra Streisand sued a photographer for sharing an aerial view of her Malibu home. Prior to her lawsuit only a handful of people had downloaded the photo, as a result of her lawsuit it went viral and thus the term Streisand Effect entered the vernacular.  Trump aide Natalie Harp, who one media outlet is now referring to as one of his “peroxide blonds” and who the NY Times’ Maggie Haberman calls his binky is experiencing her Streisand moment, the result of Trump’s minions protesting far too much about the stories concerning her uniquely bizarre behavior as Trump’s current it girl. It’s not clear who has been leaking all the details about Natalie to the press, some have suggested that the source is his peeved outgoing Press Secretary Leavitt, but the leaks are oddly funny, particularly her running alongside Trump’s golf cart and the over the top love notes she gives him not to mention her jumping into the trunk of his SUV and the printer she always carries slung over her shoulder while teetering on her de rigueur nude colored heelers.   Possibly in an effort to push back against all the attention Natalie has been getting, Trump rolled out the infrequently seen Melania yesterday who judging by her comment that she’s heard she was missed, is in on the joke. While Natalie doesn’t appear to be going anywhere, Trump has lost another senior staff member. James Braid who’d served as the director of legislative affairs has joined the other 🐀 🐀 abandoning the ship.  On the subject of ships, the Navy is “considering” changing the USS Doris Miller’s name to the USS Donald Trump.  The ship is the first air force carrier named after a Black soldier, a hero of Pearl Harbor, while Trump is someone who had faux heel spurs.  In other people news, former Congressman Eric Swalwell’s home was searched by the FBI which left with a number of his electrical devices and Democratic Congressman Jimmy Gomez is being investigated for sexual harassment by the House Ethics Committee.  Then there is Lindsey Graham’s sister Darline, the Trump endorsed interim South Carolina Senator.  She flubbed a question about Taiwan during a Tuesday debate with her Republican primary runoff opponent Ralph Norman saying that she wasn’t “informed on national security” because it isn’t her thing. She may know nothing about international affairs, but she certainly knows a lot about Republican priorities because on Wednesday during an appearance on Fox she said her flub didn’t matter because South Carolinians are more concerned about boys playing girls' sports than about tensions between "enemy" China and "friend" Taiwan.

MAHA Not:  Trump has nominated White House advisor Dr Heidi Overton to be the next head of the FDA.  Overton has questioned the safety of “medication abortion,” saying that the FDA was wrong to allow mifepristone to be prescribed by telehealth. An RFK acolyte, she called Trump’s executive order changing the childhood vaccine schedule a “historic action” (historically stupid?) and backs his call to break up the MMR shot. Dead Man Walking Senator Bill Cassidy whose support she’ll need for confirmation has “reservations” about her but then again he had concerns about RFK and about Todd Blanche and ultimately voted to confirm both even though he knew he shouldn’t.  We may be about to see another one of those “we know she’s awful, but Trump wants her” votes with Susan Collins getting an election year pass and Lisa Murkowski walking to the beat of an Alaskan drum.

More 💩:  ABC/Disney is suing the FCC for trying to take away some of its broadcast licenses for failing to adequately kowtow to Trump’s whims.  After a too long stay at sea, the USS Lincoln which Trump said wasn’t at sea long enough is on its way home. Secretary of War/Beer Hegseth insists that all was hunky-dory aboard the ship, but it wasn’t.  It wasn’t just low morale, there really was a supply shortage, the result of Iran’s attacks on the Navy’s storage facilities in the region, something that Hegseth doesn’t want to talk about.  On the election front, assuming we have elections, the Cook Political Report has moved Texas’ and Iowa’s Senate races from Lean Republican to Toss-Up.  They’ve also moved Texas’ Governor race from Solid R to Lean R and Iowa’s from Toss-Up to Lean Democrat.   😊 🤷‍♀️ And maybe in an omen of things to come, there was a tornado on Long Island last night.  

 

 

 

Harps, Heart, and Trunks 😱 ✡️🌻 😱 🚀🚢 🗳️

Quagmire Chronicles:  Remember the sixty-day memorandum of understanding with Iran that was supposed to be the beginning of the end of the Iran war, well forget about it because the MOU has expired.  Trump who continues to insist that the Strait of Hormuz is open even though it isn’t, said on Tuesday that there is no ongoing dialogue with Iran to end the war, and no discussions scheduled and son in law Kushner, Trump’s not so qualified special envoy, reported that Iran is "not showing any interest" in striking a deal that "makes sense" for the United States.  According to the Wall Street Journal, it’s not just that Iran isn’t showing any interest in a deal, they viewed the ceasefire that accompanied the now expired MOU as an opportunity to prepare for a longer war with the Revolutionary Guard using the time to consolidate its control and bolster the regime’s supply of missiles and drones while also tightening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has now threatened to bomb Oman, saying that its independent efforts to cut a deal with Iran to open the Strait is getting in the way of the US making a peace deal. Trump isn’t going to bomb Oman, but his outrageous threat which should but won’t provoke a 25^th Amendment removal, provides further evidence of how much he’s flailing.  His attempt to reignite his love affair with North Korea’s Kim Jung Un is a further admission that his Iran adventure is a festering failure.  He needs to distract with a new shiny object, so what if that object destabilizes South Korea and our Asian allies.  The WSJ reports that Trump is now pushing for his aides to schedule a meeting with Kim Jong Un, to “convince him to abandon his nuclear program” because he’s so good at getting countries to give up their nukes?

The Ballot Box 🗳️:  It turns out that very few Alaskan voters found the presence of an extra Dan Sullivan on their ballot confusing.  The “faux” Dan received only 2% of the votes, while the “real” one, incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, received 43%, coming in second to Democrat Mary Peltola who received 48% of the vote.  Incumbent Dan and Peltola will advance to the November election which is likely to be close with Peltola standing a chance of picking up a Senate seat for the Democrats, maybe.  In Florida, place saver incumbent Republican Senator Ashley Moody who Governor DeSantis had appointed as Marco Rubio’s interim replacement easily won her primary, She’ll face off against State Representative Angie Nixon who easily beat Alexander Vindman.  Much is being made of Nixon’s victory because she’s a “progressive” who recently changed her affiliation from Democrat to Democratic Socialist.  However, the odds of her beating Republican Moody in November aren’t great and her “socialist” affiliation probably won’t help her in Florida. The November Governor’s race in Florida might be much closer.  MAGA Congressman Byron Donalds easily won the Republican primary but failed to get 50% of the vote despite Trump’s endorsement.  With 61% of the Democratic vote, David Jolly the former Republican who is now a moderate Democrat, cruised to victory in his primary. Though Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in Florida since they won the Commissioner of Agriculture seat in 2018, Jolly stands a chance of beating Donalds in the fall partly because Donalds is a divisive candidate but also because it’s not clear that some reliably red voters, particularly those in the Panhandle area will show up for a Black candidate and Donalds is Black. Continuing with the racial theme there was lots of noise about Democrat Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a victim of Republican redistricting, having the nerve to run in the majority Black district she ran in, but the long-term Congresswoman ran there anyway, and won and is expected to win again in November. To be clear, the Congressional Black Caucus doesn’t oppose her politics, she’s long been a reliable ally, it’s just that they’re frustrated by how many of their members have been gerrymandered out of their seats.  The District’s prior representative Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick had earlier resigned as the result of a scandal. Despite being challenged by an anti-Israel Democratic Socialist, incumbent Jared Moskowitz won his race too.  Moskowitz’s November race will be a tough one since his new South Florida district has been gerrymandered to advantage Republicans.  On the anti-Semitic front, much to the relief of the Republican party, Nazi loving, pro-Hitler candidate Dan Bilzerian lost his primary, that’s a good thing, but not so good is that the party’s victor in his race is incumbent Randy Fine, an extreme Islamophobe.  Despite being endorsed by Trump, embattled incumbent Cory Mills lost his reelection bid.  That’s good news for those who believe that men who beat up the women in their lives shouldn’t be in Congress,  

More 💩:  Georgia Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff who is up for reelection and doing remarkably well according to the polls, for what that is worth and in his case his 7 points lead over Republican Mike Collins is likely worth a lot.  His polling position is particularly notable since his seat was supposed to be an easy pick-up for Republicans.  Ossoff, who is really good at staying on message, is living rent free in Trump’s head.  Quite a few of his Trump slamming speeches have gone viral in a good way, and this week he went where few have been willing to go, mocking the “draft dodging, crook” Trump for “only wanting to build his ballroom and travel with Natalie.” The Natalie in question is Natalie Harp, the 35- year-old Ivanka clone who previously was best known for being Trump’s human printer. Harp was one of those who Trump took on his decoy plane when he snuck out of Turkey. She is so attached to Trump that Chief of Staff Susie Wiles became concerned about the adoring ❤️ notes she shares with him. Reports are that staying close by is so important to Harp, and presumably Trump, that she sleeps in the women’s locker room when he’s at his Bedminster club, and once jumped into and rode in the trunk of his SUV when there was no room for her inside the vehicle. While Harp isn’t going anywhere, another woman, Emily Underwood who as top deputy to Stephen Miller was a senior policy strategist, is exiting.  Rats 🐀 leaving the ship. Money is leaving the ship too. SCOTUS refused to hear Trump’s last ditch bid to overturn the $5 million, now $5.6 million awarded to E Jean Caroll meaning the money is finally hers.  Trump is still appealing the much larger $83 million that was awarded to her after he continued to trash her.  Lastly, count yourself smart and a bit richer if you are long Moderna stock.  This morning the company announced that it and Merck’s mRNA shot for melanoma showed positive results in a late-stage trial. Further evidence that the mRNA technology that the RFK crowd likes to slam is a good thing.

 

 
Trump Bank 😱 ✡️🌻 😱 🚀🚢

Multi-Dimensional Chess?  There is no progress to report on the Iran war front; the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly blocked and Trump says that after he gets things straightened out he plans to declare the Strait a US territory, though not one with US citizenship rights. Don’t count on Trump straightening things out or the Strait ever becoming a US territory.  In other Middle East news, son-in-law Jared met with Hamas representatives in Egypt where he reportedly “demanded” that they “disarm and relinquish governance to unlock corresponding Israeli steps.” He plans to take the same message to Israel’s Netanyahu in an effort to get Trump’s Board of Peace “peace” plan back on track. Good luck with that too. There was some other international news over the weekend.  Over Truth Social, presumably with early access provided to the ten or so institutions who are now paying between $60,000 and $100,000 monthly for an early look at Trump’s twisted but sometimes market moving musings, the Orange one announced that he has instructed his man at the Pentagon, War and Beer Pete, to reduce joint military exercises with South Korea. Those routine annual joint exercises began last week so Trump’s message was a bit late and also quite bizarre, or as the NY Times put it “convoluted.”  Trump justified his decision, by noting that South Korea didn’t deserve our participation since they had failed to “join us in the Denuclearization of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”  He also complimented his sometime BFF, the nuclear Kim Jong Un, for being “unthreatening and respectful” while he has been president saying that his relationship with North Korea was great while his relationship with long-time ally South Korea was not. The South Korea statement combined with the repositioning of US air force carriers from Asia to the Middle East kind of clears the way for China to do whatever it wants to do in Asia and what it wants to do is occupy Taiwan where over 60 percent of all global semiconductors and roughly 90 percent of the world's most advanced, high-performance computer chips are manufactured.  What could possibly go wrong?  As to Trump’s Truth Social providing early peaks at his musings to paid investors, that’s not Kosher but then again who is going to stop him.  Certainly not his SEC or his DOJ.  New Attorney General Todd Blanche refused to say that he would act independently of the White House during a weekend interview.  Credit goes to Blanche for telling the truth, at least about that, because only the delusional believe that he’ll put the interests of the country and democracy over Trump’s demands. 

Kleptomania:  On the kleptocracy front, late last week the Trump family’s flagship crypto venture’s trust company World Liberty Financial received preliminary conditional approval from Trump’s Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to become a bank. Upon final approval, World Liberty Trust will operate as a federally chartered national trust bank.  The White House asserts that since neither Trump nor his family has ever engaged or will ever engage in conflicts of interest unlike that really corrupt guy Joe and his son Hunter, we shouldn’t be worried about them doing anything wrong, especially anything that could require a bank bailout or contribute to financial system instability. If that sounds hyperbolic consider what Trump did to his casino businesses, the closest comparison to his opaque crypto shenanigans, while you are out searching for a Trump steak sandwich and some Trump vodka to take with you as you fly on Trump airlines to your class at Trump University.   Notably Trump made $1.4 billion from his crypto related ventures last.  Anyway, Trump has far more important things on his mind, like getting the Supreme Court to unfreeze his ballroom construction project, the one he is now calling a critical military installation largely because military projects don’t have to jump through approval hoops the way that projects at the White House are supposed to.      

Other 💩:  We’ve entered the rats are leaving the ship stage of Trump’s term.  While Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s departure received lots of attention last week, she wasn’t the only notable departure from Trump’s team.   White House deputy national security adviser Andy Baker who has been closely involved in Trump’s foreign policy decisions and was part of the delegation that conducted the first in person talks with Iran in Pakistan earlier this year is exiting. He plans to join Robert O’Brien, who served as Trump’s national security adviser in the private sector.  If it feels like primary season is endless, it’s because it is.  Three more states, Florida, Wyoming, and Alaska have primaries this week.  Florida which was recently redistricted to favor Republicans is likely to get the most attention.  Democrats are competing with each other for the few remaining blue seats. A handful of Republicans, including the Trump endorsed and likely to prevail Byron Donalds are competing to run for Governor to replace the termed-out Ron DeSantis.  On the Democratic side former Republican Congressman David Jolly, now a moderate Democrat, is expected to win his primary, likely facing off against Donalds in November.  The primary also includes a race to fill the Senate seat vacated by Marco Rubio.  The leading Republican candidate is Ashley Moody who is currently serving as Florida’s interim Senator.  On the Democratic side, the race is between retired Army Lt Col Alexander Vindman who rose to fame during Trump’s first impeachment trial and Jacksonville’s Angie Nixon, this race’s designated progressive.  Alaska’s primary is somewhat messy and also fun to watch, at least fun for those not running.  The combined party Senate race includes former Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola who actually has a chance of maybe winning in November and two Dan Sullivans, incumbent Dan S and spoiler Dan J.  The two Dan Sullivan thing has Trump freaking out, posting about Democratic trickery. The combined party Governor race includes seventeen candidates.  The top four finishers in each race, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to the November election where the winner will be chosen by a ranked choice process.  To add to fun, the repeal of ranked choice voting and mixed party primaries is also on the November ballot.    

 

Twelve Weeks 😱 ✡️🌻 😱 🚀🚢🚢

Stalemate:  There’s not much to report on the Iran front mostly because nothing has changed.  Trump continues to insist that the Strait of Hormuz is open and under US control.  It is not.  Last night on Newsmax, Treasury Secretary Bessent, one of those who Trump left on his decoy Air Force One during the Three Plane Monty plane episode, said that “next week we ​are going to apply measures like have never been seen in ​the history of economic ​isolation on Iran,” whatever that means. Once upon a time Bessent was a respected hedge funder, now he’s just another member of the MAGA cult, mimicking nonsensical Trump talking points. At least Bessent started off with some real credentials, the same can’t be said of War and Beer Secretary Pete Hegseth.  The former weekend Foxie denies that there’s anything wrong on the almost nine months deployed USS Abraham Lincoln air force carrier.  Hegseth claims that the reports of dwindling food supplies, contaminated water, a lack of personal hygiene products, and most critically declining morale are “misrepresented.”  His assertion is refuted by the wife of a sailor whose husband jumped overboard after sending her a series of increasingly desperate emails about his deteriorating mental state, something that he had shared with others aboard the carrier including his superior officers and medical professionals before he jumped.  Hegseth, who’d rather talk about testosterone, wants to write that sailor’s suicide attempt off as an isolated event but reports in military focused publications, including the Stars and Stripes and the Military Times, indicate otherwise. Yesterday, it was announced that a fresh air force carrier is finally being sent to the Middle East to relieve the Lincoln.  That’s good news for those on the Lincoln, but not so good news for military preparedness in other critical parts of the world, including Asia where China is watching closely, chomping at the bit at the thought of being able to move on Taiwan. As to the Three Plane Monty escapade, while Bessent and Secretary of State Rubio appear to have shrugged off being left on the “target” plane, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt may not be as forgiving. On Wednesday, Trump announced that because she’s having trouble balancing motherhood with her position as his lying mouthpiece, Leavitt is quitting to return home to her toddler and her newborn baby. Reports are that Leavitt’s decision may have had little to do with the stress of motherhood and more to do with whatever was being “discussed” during the now viral video of her shouting match with Trump which took place with his human Xerox machine Natalie Harp looking on. One indication that Leavitt’s departure wasn’t expected is that her replacement hasn’t yet been picked. A long list of names are being floated including CNN’s token Trump mouthpiece Scott Jennings, Stephen Miller’s wife Katie, lawyer Alina Habba, on again off again advisor Jason Miller, the extraordinarily rude and kind of hard to look at White House Communication Director Steven Cheung, and a number of other lesser known but attractive women in Trump’s orbit including the aforementioned Xerox girl.

More 💩:  Yesterday, the board of the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts which is now composed of Trump sycophants voted to put his name back on the Center’s walls, this time by etching it into the Center’s stone.  They also want his name permanently affixed to everything within the Center’s walls just in case some future president tries to remove evidence that he ever existed.  In addition, they voted to close the Center for two years for “renovation.” If this sounds hinky, it’s because it is.  In May US District Judge Christopher Cooper ordered the removal of Trump's name from the Center, ruling that adding it violated federal law because only Congress has the authority to change the congressionally designated memorial's name.  Then again, it’s Trump’s world, and the Supreme Court keeps on insisting that he’s a Supreme Deity.  More litigation enroute?  It’s not just the Kennedy Center that Trump is screwing around with, his ambitious plans for Trumpifying the White House and its grounds which includes his massive new ballroom, an underground military bunker, and a new Marine One helipad are estimated to be costing in excess of $900 million.  He’s also asked Congress for an additional $2 billion so that he can expand his imprint on other parts of Washington DC because things like his planned Arc d’Trump and gilding statues and memorials aren’t free, and despite his assertions, are not being covered by contributions.  Washington DC isn’t the only place where the Trump administration is overspending on our dime. Before she was ousted former Homeland Secretary Kristi Noem spent $464 million on a fleet of used and luxury planes.  The planes which were purchased via a no-bid contract are now mostly laying idle, because Homeland lacks the pilots to fly them and the mechanics to maintain them.  New Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin wants everyone to know that he had nothing to do with the purchase, Noem of course disputes his claim, saying that since most of the planes were delivered after she was ousted, the waste is on him.  While Mullin isn’t responsible for purchasing the planes, he is responsible for DHS ordering $20 million of electric shock gloves for ICE officers to wear while rounding up migrants.  What could possibly go wrong? The NY Times reports that after Alex Pretti was killed in Minneapolis, federal authorities opened investigations into left wing groups rather than the border patrol guy whose actions led to Pretti’s death.  Imagine what they’ll do after their new electrified gloves shock a few people to death?   

Corrupt 💩: In March 2025, the Trump Organization and Eric Trump sued Capitol One claiming that the bank had unlawfully "de-banked" roughly 385 Trump related accounts for political reasons.  In response, Capital One told the court that while it had closed over 300 Trump related accounts in 2021, the closures were the result of an internal anti-money laundering compliance review rather than motivated by politics. That’s not what the Trump’s wanted to hear in court which probably explains why his administration is rolling back major anti-money laundering and corporate transparency requirements originally enacted under the 2021 Corporate Transparency Act to prevent criminals from hiding illicit funds in anonymous shell companies. Not only is Trump rolling back the reporting rules, but he’s also ordering that all records collected as a result of the bill be destroyed.  Ironically, Marco Rubio was the sponsor of the Transparency Act. We won’t know if the polls are correct until after the midterms which take place in twelve weeks take place, assuming they take place at all or take place without federal interference, but the DOJ under Trump’s newly confirmed Attorney General/personal lawyer Todd Blanche is already taking steps to shelter Trump from the Congressional oversight that will swamp him if the Democrats get control of the House.  The DOJ has issued a non-binding memo stating that Trump can assert executive privilege to shield private advisers outside the federal government from congressional and legal investigations.  That would be unprecedented but then again Trump is king, isn’t that what SCOTUS keeps telling us.    

 

 

Three Plane Monty 😱 ✡️🌻 😱 🚀🚢 🗳️

✈️✈️ ✈️ :  If you had Trump sneaking via a catering cart on to a back-up to the Air Force One that was itself the back-up to his increasingly costly “free” Qatari One plane while leaving last month’s NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey on your bingo card you’ve won this week’s Trump 💩show award.  If you had him leaving Secretary of State Rubio, junior Goebbels Stephen Miller and the press corps on what is now being referred to as the decoy plane but taking Secretary of War and Beer and blonde aide de jure Natalie Harp with him, you get a Sharpie signed miniature gold toilet bowl too.  The three card Monty plane shenanigans took place after the Secret Service learned that the Iranians were closely tracking all his moves in Ankara, allegedly planning to shoot him out of the sky with a shoulder fired missile. To be fair to Trump, not that he’s been all that fair to the rest of us, he’s not the first president who to abandon Air Force One for a “safer” plane, but he is the first one to have done so without alerting his traveling squad that he was leaving them as sitting ducks.  Trump endangering the lives of others with his plane shift is a fitting counterpart to his Vaccine Executive Order, only the vaccine order, unlike the plane game will endanger far more people, it’s likely to result in the sickness and deaths of thousands upon thousands of children.  On Tuesday, with Secretary of Health and Brain Worms RFK by his side Trump, who like RFK has absolutely no medical training though unlike RFK he probably didn’t inject heroin during his college days, issued an Executive Order calling for children to get fewer routine vaccines.  Among the shots that he’s decided children should no longer routinely get are the ones for flu, hepatitis B and A, Rotavirus, RSV, Meningococcal disease, and COVID 19. In addition, Trump wants the MMR (Measles, Mumps, and Rubella) vaccine to be split into its three components, so what if single shots for each of those diseases are no longer available in the US and no other countries or the WHO recommend splitting them up. Trump insists that cutting down on vaccines and splitting up the MMR shot so that “soda bottles” of vaccines aren’t delivered into babies’ arms will reduce the incidence of autism even though there is no evidence that the shots or the established vaccine schedule contribute to autism and claims about vaccines being the cause of autism have long been debunked. There are two things that have contributed significantly to the spike in reported cases of autism: one is an expanded definition that has raised the number of children reported as being on the autism spectrum, another is being the child of an older father but that old dad thing would require some introspection on Trump’s part, and that’s not going to happen.  Besides, focusing on shots allows Trump to avoid doing much if anything about all the particularly nasty chemicals that do contribute to all sorts of diseases and syndromes because the manufacturers of those chemicals are among his contributors.  The good news is that Trump’s executive order won’t have as much impact as he wants it to in that most doctors will continue to recommend the shots and their time-tested established schedule.  The bad news is that there are people who listen to him and as a result there will be more vaccine hesitancy and avoidance.  In addition, some children whose parents want them vaccinated but who buy into Trump’s scheduling mishigas or who have doctors who do won’t have the time or financial resources to show up for the multiple appointments that Trump’s “spread out the shots” order requires.

Primary Tuesday:  The biggest takeaway from yesterday’s primaries is that polls, and the prediction betting sites that amplify them are frequently wrong by a lot.  Last week, polls predicted a runaway victory by Michigan’s El Sayed; he did win his primary but barely.  Yesterday, the polls predicted that Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong would win her primary to become the Democrat’s nominee for Governor of Wisconsin by twenty points.  Instead, in what turned out to be a nail biter, Hong appears to have lost to moderate Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, a relief for Wisconsin’s Democrats who feared that Hong, who among other extreme views at least once said that Thanksgiving should be eliminated, would doom the party’s chances of holding on to the Wisconsin Governor’s mansion. Crowley, who had withdrawn from the race but reentered after the leading candidate withdrew due to her campaign’s financial improprieties, won by only 3100 votes in a crowded field, with 39.78% of the vote to Hong’s 30.37%.  He will now face off against Republican Tom Tiffany, an extreme election denier who tried to overturn the 2020 presidential race.  The Cook Political Report is calling the November race a toss-up, not unusual for 50:50 Wisconsin’s statewide elections.  In better news for the progressive wing of the Democratic party, Minnesota’s Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan easily beat the more moderate Congresswoman Angie Craig and will be Minnesota’s Democratic nominee for the Senate race to replace the retiring Tina Smith, the Senator who initially made it to the Senate as the replacement for Al Franken who was an early not so deserving victim of the me too movement more because his humor fell flat than anything else. The good news for Democrats is that it is much easier for a progressive to win a statewide election in Minnesota than in very swingy Wisconsin.  Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar easily won her Democratic Governor primary, but pillow man Mike Lindell who Trump endorsed was trounced, losing to fellow Republican State legislator Lisa Demuth.  Klobuchar is favored to win in November.  Lindsey Graham’s sister Darline who was endorsed by Trump came in first in the South Carolina special primary for her brother’s seat but failed to clinch the nomination since she received only 35% of the vote.  She’ll face off in an end of the month runoff against Freedom Party Congressman Ralph Norman who obtained 25% of the vote.

More 💩:  The pool saga is even more complicated than originally reported, there were a lot more contractors involved none of whom were chosen for their related experience or competency.  Despite how much they screwed up, Trump is still pressing for the Olympic canoeist to be re-indicted because someone other than Trump has to take the blame for the mess he’s created.  Also, it turns out that the US really is running out of advanced missiles, a shortage that Trump partially inherited but then worsened with the Iran war.  Who would have guessed that Trump, who has been busy spending tax dollars on airplanes, gold statues, pools, golf course renovations, opening and shutting INS prisons while hugely bloating the INS, and so on together with his Fox weekend host Hegseth who has been focused on eliminating experienced female and Black officers while proposing testosterone shots but not flu shots for soldiers could possibly have missed that their supply of sophisticated weaponry was running low.  

 

Adios Amigo 😱 ✡️🌻 😱 🚀🚢 🗳️

The Morass:  The WSJ reports that thinking he could get Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Trump was ready to declare victory without achieving a nuclear deal with Iran.  The problem is that Iran’s leadership, smelling his desperation, isn’t cooperating. They see what everyone sees, that the US midterms are looming and that the US economy is suffering so perceiving they have the upper hand they’re seeking billions of US dollars, the removal of all troops in the region, an end to the US naval blockade and in exchange they want to maintain control over and monetize the Strait passage. What a conundrum for Trump, he went to war to get rid of Iran’s nukes and now not only won’t he achieve that goal. but he’s lost a critical transit point. Even for him, the master of deception, that’s hard to spin. Further complicating the regional mess, we’re not the only country with elections looming.  Israel’s, scheduled to take place in October, are right around the corner so it’s no surprise that Trump’s plan for Gaza is falling flat too because fighting for his political life and to stay out of an Israeli jail, Netanyahu isn’t all that interested in making concessions either.  Turns out that like health care and just about everything else Trump has promised to fix in two weeks, achieving Middle East peace is complicated, really complicated.   

Domestic Issues: My suggestion that Todd Blanche’s confirmation was up in the air was wishful thinking because on Friday afternoon Dead Man Walking Senator Bill Cassidy caved.  Stammering during a convoluted speech where he essentially justified voting for Blanche by insisting that everyone would be better off if Trump had a confirmed Attorney General who was competent even if that competence involved facilitating all the evil things he demands, Cassidy threw his support behind Blanche. It was painful to watch Cassidy eat what was left of his soul, especially since, like his vote for RFK’s confirmation, we’re the ones who will suffer.  Then again, suffering, at least for those not related to Trump, is all the vogue these days.  As revealed by Friday’s unexpectedly depressing report, 23,000 people lost their jobs in July.  Unemployment ticked down a smidge but only because hundreds of thousands of people dropped out of the workforce.  It’s not just jobs or the lack thereof, that’s a problem, gas prices are once again increasing due to uncertainty about who will or will not be able to transit through the Strait of Hormuz.  If the “it’s the economy stupid”  mantra holds the midterms might really go against Trump and his Maga-tized Republican party assuming that he doesn’t manage to disrupt the elections, and all indications are that he’ll try.  

Senate Machinations: Now that he’s won his primary Michigan Democrat Abdul El Sayed is trying to shimmy back towards a more middle ground or at the very least to a left of center spot that makes him more acceptable to a wider swath of his state’s voters.  That shift involves him saying that he “loves and reveres the Jewish People,” a variation of Trump pointing to Hershel Walker while saying “I have a Black friend.” It has worked for Trump so it might work for El Sayed 🤷‍♀️.  El Sayed appears to still be standing by the left-wing’s current darling, anti-Semitic streamer Hasan Piker, excusing Piker’s remark that the US deserved 9.11, by more or less saying everyone’s allowed to say stupid things now and then.  The Cook Political Report now has Michigan’s Senate race as a toss-up.  With so much attention on Michigan and on Maine, it would be easy to miss the odd goings on in a few other Senate races.  Democratic candidates aren’t fielding party candidates in Nebraska, Idaho, and South Dakota.  Instead, Democrats are supporting Independent candidates in the hope that they’ll be more electable and if any of them win, that they’ll caucus blue.  In Nebraska, the Independent candidate running against Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts is Dan Osborn; in South Dakota it is Brian Beng running against Republican incumbent Mike Rounds; and in Idaho it is Todd Achilles challenging Republican incumbent Jim Risch.  To date Alani Bankhead, the Democrat running against Republican Kurt Alme in Montana who became the Republican’s candidate when Senator Steve Daines announced he wasn’t running at the last possible minute, has withstood the pressure to pull out.. However, a number of Democrats including former Democratic Senator Jon Tester have endorsed her Independent opponent Seth Bodnar and are calling for her to exit the race by the end of today, the deadline for being taken off of the ballot.  Also, tomorrow is special primary day in South Carolina.  Even with Trump’s endorsement it’s not clear that Lindsey Graham’s sister Darline will be able to get the 50% of the vote needed to secure her candidacy since the Republican field is very crowded so a runoff at the end of the month is highly likely.

More 💩:  Writing that “Each President is a temporary tenant, not the owner, of the White House and its Executive Residence. The President has no … constitutionally assigned authority over that property, which is designed and maintained for the use of all Presidents, current and future, and for the American people. … Whether or not a massive ballroom should be constructed is for Congress to decide and is not a matter for Executive self-help,” The US Appeals court ruled that Trump has to stop work on his east wing ballroom.  Trump is now rebranding the ballroom project calling it a “military center” in the hopes that doing so will help him circumvent the ruling.  He’s also pushing hard to get US Attorney for DC Janine Pirro of Fox and Wine fame to bring back the charges she dropped against the Olympic canoer and the others who according to him deserve to be severely punished for destroying the Reflecting Pond that he and his contractors destroyed. With regard to birthright citizenship, it’s not just babies born to “birth tourists” and people who “hate” America, that he wants to strip citizenship rights from, he wants to take them from children born in US territories like Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, and Guam.  Puerto Ricans were granted citizenship by Congress by legislation passed in 1917; Trump wants that legislation revoked.  Weird how he’s all in on giving citizenship to white South Africans but wants to strip it from Puerto Ricans.  He must really hate Bad Bunny.

 

Blue Bunny Woes 😱 ✡️🌻 😱 🚀🚢 🗳️

Truth or Dare:  Before the Iran war all ships regardless of country of origin could pass through the Strait of Hormuz, no toll required.  That was then, this is now and the Strait is not open to all. Trump keeps saying that a deal with Iran is imminent.  Iran says that that it’s deal which involves our supposed ally Oman would block US and Israeli ships and would include “penalties” of up to 20% of the value of cargo on ships from countries that violate any of their terms. However, Trump still insists that all ships will be able to pass, no fees imposed, or at the very least no fees that aren’t paid to the US. All of these things can’t be true. Trump also insists that reports that the US is running out of key precision long-range and air-defense interceptor missile are fake news. The Washington Post, which Trump renamed yesterday the Washington Compost, says that he and Secretary of War/Beer Hegseth had a shouting match last weekend at Camp David when Trump learned for the first time (!) that the supplies of those missiles really are seriously depleted. Trump and Hegseth are now launching a leaker search to find out who told the Washinton (Com)Post about that verbal battle because tracking leakers will solve the missile shortage problem? Maybe Trump should pay more attention to missile supplies than to the reflecting pool, his Arc d’Trump, his ballroom, his helipad, and his golf course renovations.      

Peeps:  The Senate vote on Todd Blanche’s confirmation as Attorney General hasn’t taken place yet and now it might not because though Dead Men Walking Senators Tillis and Cornyn caved earlier this week, this morning Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski announced that she’s a definite no.  She had hinted yesterday that she was heading in that direction by saying that she’d been hearing from her consituents that they opposed Blanche’s confirmation.  It’s still not clear how Lousiana Dead Man walking Bill Cassidy will vote. He was a surprise guilty vote for Trump’s second impeachment so while he usually caves, he’s been known to cross Trump.  Given that Trump is responsible for him losing his primary, he has every reason to gift Trump with a no vote but then again he provided the key vote for RFK even though he knew he shouldn’t.  Absent a surprise visit to the Senate floor from the ailing Mitch McConnell, Blanche will not be confirmed even if Cassidy caves. McConnell reports that he’s been released from rehab and is now back home recuperating but unable to come back to work yet which could mean he really is recuperating but probably means that he’s decided to spend his final days at home. In either case, it doesn’t appear that he’ll show up for a vote.  Unfortunately Blanche can still remain on as Acting Attorney General.  Blanche’s now unlikely confirmation would require only a majority vote, but getting the full Senate to vote to hold Virus Guru Fauci in contempt of Congress would require 60 votes which explains why the whole Senate isn’t likely to vote on holding him in contempt.  Unfortunately for Fauci,  Kentucky’s Rand Paul really hates him and everything he stands for so instead of recommending a full Senate vote, he had his Homeland Security Committee vote Fauci in contempt. The vote was partisan with all the committee’s Republicans slamming Fauci. It’s absurd that Fauci, a key player in leading us out of COVID who received a commendation for his efforts from Trump, is now being punished for his efforts. Makes you wonder if anyone will answer the call the next time there’s a pandemic or if we’ll just have to rely on RFK, raw milk and Vitamin A.  As to RFK, this week the FDA approved Moderna’s new RNA flu shot, mFLUSIVA, for those over 50, but its not clear that RFK will support the CDC following suit.  The Moderna shot provides stronger protection from the flu because mRNA technology allows for it to be adapted to more closely match the prevailing flu virus than traditional vaccines that need a longer lead time. The good news is that the Senate has finally confirmed Dr Erica Schwartz as the new CDC head, the bad news is that RFK is still her boss and concern remains that much the way he impeded short lived CDC head Susan Monarez’s independence he’ll impact her decisions.

Everyone in Disarray: Most of the focus this week was on the results of the Michigan Senate primary and whether or not the Democrats can “heal” their self-inflicted wounds to keep the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters but Trump suffered a few hits this week too.  The first one took place in Michigan where Thomas Smith, a retired engineer who had dropped out of Michigan’s 8^th District Congressional race a month ago, beat Trump endorsed candidated Amir Hassan even though he’d stopped campaigning and had stopped raising money. The second one took place last night when Trump’s candidate, incumbent Andy Ogles, lost his Tennessee primary to former state agriculture commisioner Charlie Hatcher in one of the state’s newly redrawn districts.  Apparently even with Trump’s endorsement, the new sections of Ogles’ district didn’t buy into Ogles’ extreme anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant views.  The district is still expected to go Republican in November.  In other Tennessee news, Trumpy Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn won her Governor primary which means that she’ll likely be Tennessee’s next governor. 

More 💩:  One thing we know about Trump and his mini Goebbels Steven Miller is that they are both very persistent.  The Supreme Court ruled against the rationale for most of his tariffs, so Trump found another law and reinstituted tariffs.  Yesterday he followed suit with birth right citizenship by issuing two executive orders, one directed at children of “alien enemies” the other intended to clamp down on birth tourism.  Though both provisions may appeal to the anti-immigrant set, it’s not clear that either will withstand court review nor is it clear who gets to define who is an enemy alien or who gets to determine what constitutes birth tourism so cue the lawsuits. Ohio Republican Congressman Max Miller/former Trump aide is still in Congress running for reelection but the drip of accusations against him continues.  Yesterday’s news concerned his daughter’s blue bunny.  The accusation, backed up by some very petty emails, is that Miller has been holding his daughter’s blue bunny hostage, refusing to turn it over during custody exchanges.  He may or may not be guilty of spouse and child abuse, he may or may not be an ecstasy user, but holding the soothing toy back, that’s just mean.  As of today, for “only” $100,000 per month you can subscribe to Trump’s market moving Truth Social posts, getting to see them before the general public because in addition to all his other crimes and misdeamonors, Trump is all in on insider trading and who is going to stop him. No worries though, because yesterday South Carolina Republican Senator Tim Scott said that Trump is “the paragon of ethics.” And add New Jersey to the list of states that have had their water systems attacked by what are to believed to be Iran hackers, by everyone but Trump who probably blames NJ’s Governor or maybe even Minnesota’s Governor.     

 

 

Ballot Box Blues😱 ✡️🌻😱 🚀🚢 🗳️

Ballot Box 🗳️:  As I write this morning, with >95% of the vote counted, the race to be Michigan’s Democratic nominee for the Senate is still up in the air.  Progressive, anti-Israel candidate Abdul El Sayed is leading the more mainstream Haley Stevens 48.6% to 47.3%.  The NY Times hasn’t called the race but is now saying that El Sayed is likely to win.  Pre-election polls, or at the very least the ones that the progressive crowd had been touting, had projected that El Sayed would win by somewhere around 7 points so while a victory, assuming he wins, is a victory, his may not bode well for him or the Democrats in November because beating the Republican’s Senate candidate, former Congressman Mike Rogers, won’t be easy.  Beyond the Michigan Senate race, results for the progressive/socialist set were mixed.  Bernie Sanders backed Progressive Sunrise Movement co-founder William Lawrence won his 7^th District Michigan House primary mostly because he was up against two moderates who split the vote. The Michigan’s 7^th is currently held by a Republican so, again while a victory is a victory, a primary victory by a progressive might not lead to a Democratic pick-up in November. Elsewhere in Michigan, Democratic Socialist Donavan McKinney is locked in a tight race with incumbent Shri Thanedar for Michigan’s 13^th District.  In St. Louis, Missouri Democratic Socialist and former Squad Member Cori Bush who’d been trying to knock off incumbent Wesley Bell who’d knocked her out of Congress in 2024 lost by over 20 points.

Blanche Update:  Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche moved one step closer to getting the Acting removed from his title after Dead Man Walking Senators John Cornyn and Thom Tillis bought into his “fingers crossed behind his back” promise not to proceed with Trump’s slush fund for insurrectionists. They are both also on board with Trump, Don Jr, Eric, and the Trump Organization getting their tax obligations, or at the very least the amounts they owe but failed to pay for prior years, zeroed out.  Cornyn’s and Tillis’ caving was not all that surprising because while their days in the Senate are now numbered, those lucrative lobbying jobs and board appointments beckon and pissing off Trump would likely put their future earnings power in jeopardy.  As predicted Maine’s Senator Susan Collins is the recipient of this confirmation vote’s golden ticket.  She announced yesterday that she will be voting against Blanche’s nomination.  With Mitch McConnell teetering at death’s door and unable to vote, that means that the golden tickets are all used up. Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski hasn’t yet announced how she’ll vote but Trump’s been coughing up benefits and carve outs for her state, so she’ll probably cave.  That’s particularly awkward for the pro-choice Murkowski since yesterday a tape of a call that Blanche had with an anti-abortion religious group surfaced.  On that call, Blanche said he is planning to roll back abortion access even in states that have laws protecting it.  Those efforts to further screw women will likely include eliminating access to Mifipristone. 

Peeps:  Republican Congressman Max Miller who as of now is still running for reelection continues to deny that he ever abused his wife and child, instead asserting that the problem is that his lying wife is nuts. Apparently, former Melania aide Stephanie Grisham who he dated and allegedly abused during Trump One is nuts too. Reports are that Miller who used to work for Trump is even resisting an uncharacteristically polite nudge from Trump who told him that while he thinks he’s a nice guy and as of now he still has his endorsement, it’s time for him to step aside not because of the abuse allegations but because recent polling is turning against him.  Miller appeared on Jake Tapper’s CNN show yesterday where he denied that he’d ever hurt his wife and child, he also said that rumors about him and ecstasy aren’t true because the only drug he indulges in is testosterone, a self-own since excessive testosterone use can lead to aggressive behavior like wife beating. Miller also continued to cast aspersions at his father-in-law Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno, not so subtly referring to old rumors about the married Senator seeking sex on a gay dating website.  Miller is now being investigated by the House Ethic’s committee, a process that could take a while.  Unlike Miller, Republican Congressman Chuck Edwards just announced that he is terminating his reelection bid.  The 56-year-old Edwards was censured yesterday for “persistent unprofessional and inappropriate conduct towards to two young female staffers.” One of those staffers was 19 when the harassment began, the other was in her early 20s.  Trump’s still not happy with Washington DC US Attorney/Fox Alum Jeanine Pirro but at least for now Pirro who showed up for her meeting at the White House with documentary proof that Secretary of the Interior Doug Burghum had “misled” Trump about his responsibility for the Reflecting Pond fiasco, still has her job. 

Iran War: Trump, who is re-ripping up the White House lawn because his newly built helipad is leaning precipitously, is once again talking up an imminent deal to open up the Strait of Hormuz while also announcing that the duplicitous Iranians are not to be trusted. Also, news is that we are running out of long-range missiles which is either true or an excuse for Trump and War/Beer Pete seeking more defense spending or both.  Once upon a time we had adults in the White House and someone other than a weekend Fox host running the Pentagon as well as experienced professionals serving as negotiators.  Sure, they sometimes screwed up but at least they had a chance of succeeding.