New Week, Same Trump

Sore Loser:  Trump isn’t taking last week’s health plan debacle well.  He’s embarked on a two pronged strategy, neither of which bodes well for people who rely on Obamacare.  First, he is pushing the Senate to go back and pass anything that remotely looks like a health plan.  To that end Senators Graham and Cassidy, who briefly mentioned the broad outlines of their plan last Thursday, met with Trump.   The Graham-Cassidy fantasy plan which has not yet been scored or reviewed by the parliamentarian involves giving states block grants, letting each one make its own decision about how best to deliver, or not deliver health care.  Trump doesn’t care about details or how many people would lose insurance so he will support their plan as long as it results in enough service reductions to free up money for his tax cuts.  Budget Director Mick Mulvaney, best known for dissing after school meals and meals on wheels for the elderly as programs with no discernable benefit, wants the Senate to put everything on hold until they get a health care plan passed.  Majority Leader McConnell just wants to move on to other business and it’s not clear that his wayward Senators Murkowski, Collins or McCain would buy into anything that doesn’t involve a “regular” process of getting input from experts, insurance providers, hospitals, doctor groups and Senator Schumer and his eager band of Democrats.  As to McCain, even if he could be swayed to vote yes on the Graham-Cassidy plan, it’s not clear that he will be available any time soon, he’s gone home to begin chemo and radiation.  Trump’s second strategy, involves doing what he can to hasten Obamacare’s demise and sadly he has the power to cause great damage by refusing to make the payments to insurance companies that are used to subsidize premiums for lower income people, by failing to publicize enrollee sign-up periods and by making more people exempt from the individual mandate.  Without an assurance that subsidy payments will be made and faced with “sicker” pools, insurance companies will hike rates.  Sunday morning, when asked if Trump would support the law or do his best to sabotage it, Health and Human Services Secretary Price did his best to avoid giving a clear answer.  Instead he went into his usual canned speech about the horrors of Obamacare.  The disconnect between the Trump administration and the millions of people with Obamacare plans who want to see fixes, not destruction remains. Talking head Kellyanne Conway reports that Trump will announce whether he will make subsidy payments this week.  Judging by his tweets he is leaning towards sabotage.  We should know more soon.  On a more positive note, a few in Congress have been holding discrete bi-partisan meetings planning for the day they actually get to do their jobs.   

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Kelly Monday:  General Kelly starts as Trump’s chief of Staff today and he has his work cut out for him.  Trump’s incessant tweeting was in full force this weekend so it doesn’t look like Kelly made tweet cessation a condition for taking the thankless job.  It’s also not clear that Kelly will be able to impose a traditional hierarchy on the White House Trumpettes.  When asked if she will be reporting to the General, Kellyanne Conway coyly smiled and said she will do whatever Trump wants, in other words not if she can help it.  So far Smoochy Scaramucci, who missed the birth of his newest baby because he was at the Boy Scout Jamboree, still reports directly into Trump and no one is stopping Jared and Ivanka from hanging in the Oval Office whenever they feel the need for some Trump time.  As to General Kelly, the jury is out on whether he will be an independent thinker who speaks up when he thinks Trump is out of line or whether he will be a “good” soldier who does as told.  As Homeland Secretary, the General efficiently carried out Trump’s deportation plans but did question the need for the “Wall.” Earlier in the year, General Kelly towed the Trump line when he responded to a question about whether or not he believed that Obama had taped Trump’s calls, by saying if “Trump says there are tapes, there must be tapes.”  No replacement has been named for the now vacant Homeland Security role though a few names have been mentioned.  The Trump team has floated the concept of moving Attorney General Sessions to Homeland, a move that would get Trump the new Attorney General he wants without having to actually fire Sessions.  Though that option appeals to Trump, it would be challenged in the Senate.   Another suggestion has been Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, the king of voter suppression, another guy who wouldn’t receive widespread support.        

The War on Diversity:  While Trump tweeted uncertainty into the careers of thousands of transgender soldiers last week, his Sessions led Judiciary Department took a swipe at all LGBT Americans.  They filed a brief contending that the Civil Rights Act of 1964 which bans sex discrimination in the workplace does not covers sexual orientation.  Their assertion contradicts the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission’s argument that the ban on sexual discrimination does include gender identity but is consistent with the Sessions, Pence, Bannon anti-gay agenda.  Once again, Trump who trumpeted his support for LGBT rights during the campaign is showing that he isn’t all that into rainbows.  

     

North Korea:  All’s not quiet on the Korean Peninsula.  North Korea’s most recent intercontinental ballistic missile was more advanced and went further than earlier missiles, making it likely that Kim Jong Un’s reach is getting further and further into the US mainland.  A frenzied and frustrated Trump tweet smacked “I am very disappointed in China.  They do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk.  We will no longer allow this to continue.  China could easily solve this problem!”  Trump’s criticism of China is valid, but his use of tweet diplomacy is insane. Instead of tweeting he should try more coalition building with regional and European allies.  In response to the North Korean launch the US conducted another missile defense exercise in the Pacific, further inflaming Kim Jong Un and unsettling the Chinese who aren’t happy that we have missile defenses employed so close to their border.  Despite Kim Jong Un’s bluster and nuclear progrerss, experts believe that he would negotiate some concessions as long as he gets to keep much of his nuclear capability, his insurance that he won’t be toppled anytime soon.  The concept of two insecure irrational guys going nuclear head to nuclear head remains very unsettling.        

Buyer’s Remorse:  Secretary of State Tillerson’s been directed to shrink the State Department Budget and it looks like he’s getting a big assist from the guy who gave him a Freedom of Russia Medal a few years ago.  Yesterday in response to the passage of new US sanction legislation, Putin finally acknowledged that Trump, and all the bots and false news stories that money can buy, won’t get him back his US Dachas and, more critically, won’t lift the Magnitsky Act sanctions that make it difficult for Putin and his oligarchs to stash their huge wealth abroad.  He announced that 755 US embassy employees, many of whom are Russian nationals, should “pack their bags,” bringing the US contingent down to about 450 or so.

          

My General

Reince Out, Kelly In:  Late Friday afternoon Trump announced the appointment of a new Chief of Staff.  He replaced the increasingly hapless Reince Priebus with former General John Kelly, who will now move from heading the Department of Homeland Security to the unruly White House while Priebus joins former press secretary Spicer competing for any remaining spots on Dancing With the Stars and FOX news. Trump likes to surround himself with rich people and his generals, Priebus, who is neither, was doomed from the start.  His ability to control the White House staff was limited and with the failure of the health care bill, the value of his Congressional connections had been discredited.   Everybody but the clueless Priebus saw this one coming from the moment that Anthony Scaramucci was hired to serve as Trump’s Communications Director and hatchet man, especially after the Mooch spent a good portion of his week bashing and undermining Priebus with Trump’s blessing. In an attempt to save face, Priebus claimed that he voluntarily submitted his resignation to Trump on Thursday and that Kelly was his handpicked replacement.   If believing that makes Priebus feel better, he probably shouldn’t pay attention to press reports that Trump first offered Kelly the Chief of Staff job in May and had been imploring him to accept the offer ever since. Theoretically, Kelly’s military experience and strong management skills should help him impose discipline in the White House but he will be sabotaged by the same hurdles that impeded Priebus’s success.  The impetuous, irrational Trump is still the president, he remains a tweet addict,  relatives and cronies still run amuck, and, at least for now, loose cannon Scaramucci will continue to report directly into Trump. After a few weeks in the White House, Kelly will likely conclude that deporting immigrants and rooting out terrorism is much easier than managing the capricious Trump and his coterie of back stabbing dilettantes.  Despite his success throwing Priebus under the bus, Scaramucci’s week wasn’t all good, on Friday the NY Post reported that his second wife, the mother of two of his children, has filed for divorce because she can’t stand Trump and doesn’t want anything to do with her fame and power seeking husband.  The soon to be former Mrs. Mooch has her eyes on getting a large chunk of the $90 million that the Mooch expects to receive from the sketchy Chinese firm who is overpaying for his Bayrock Capital Fund of Funds in order to curry favor with Trump.  She, like the Mooch, is hoping that Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will make sure that the appropriate regulators approve his sale shortly.      

Pure Trump:  Trump is still reacting to the stunning demise of his health care legislation.  He started the day calling for Obamacare to implode and then spent the day distancing himself from the decision to proceed with health care legislation before tax reform or infrastructure laying the blame for that strategy with House Majority Leader Ryan, Senate Majority Leader McConnell, the now unemployed Priebus, his former wives and Hillary Clinton.  He repeated his call for Obamacare’s demise during a speech to Long Island police officers before moving on to the intended topic, law and order and the battle to eliminate the MS 13 Gang.  By presidential decree he granted the attending police permission to engage in brutality when arresting gang members and anyone they think might be a gang member assuring them it would be okay if they “accidentally” bash a head or two into a car door or wall.  Later in the day the Suffolk County Police Chief issued a directive to his force advising them to ignore Trump’s illegal exhortations. Cleaning-up after Trump speeches is becoming a  cottage industry.     

Sanctions Signing:  Late in the day the White House said that Trump will sign the bill imposing new sanctions on Russia, Iran and North Korea in order to avoid a fight with Congress that would have led to a humiliating veto override.  Fear of sanctions doesn’t seem to be putting a dent in North Korea’s missile program.  Yesterday they launched another intercontinental ballistic missile.  Intelligence agencies have revised their assessment of North Korea’s missile program, they now believe that Kim Jong Un will be able to reach a US target with a nuclear warhead by 2018.   

Reality Check:  To date, unlike their Senate counterparts, the House Judiciary Committee has shown no interest in participating in investigations into Russian election meddling in the 2016 elections or any related allegations about the Trump team.   Last week they found their true calling.  Republicans on the committee called for Attorney General Sessions and Deputy AG Rosenstein to appoint a new special counsel to investigate Hillary Clinton, James Comey and Obama era AG Loretta Lynch to restore “public confidence in our nation’s justice system.”  I feel so much better knowing they are on the case.

Two Women and A Maverick

Obamacare Lives:  Senate Majority Leader McConnell couldn’t pass any health care bill through the Senate.  Between the parliamentarian’s rulings and his warring factions the best he could offer was a plan so skinny that it was anorexic.   The plan eliminated the individual and employee mandates and the medical equipment tax, but kept the defunding of Planned Parenthood and left Medicaid intact.  It was so bad that on Thursday afternoon Senators Graham, Cassidy, McCain and Johnson held a press conference to say that they would only vote for it to pass if House Majority Leader Ryan would promise to throw it out and start from scratch, writing a new version with their input in a joint conference committee.  The four guys were jovial but somewhat incoherent as they went on to trash the legislative process.  Though they tried to present a uniform front, they each had a different view of what a final health care plan should include. McCain said that the plan would have to meet the needs of Arizona’s governor, and though he didn’t share it he had a list of key items that his governor wanted tucked away neatly in his pocket.  Cassidy and Graham had their own plan that involved giving the states block grants to spend as they want on health care.  It wasn’t totally clear what Johnson wanted.  McCain also said that he wanted a bipartisan process but none of the other three seemed all that concerned about getting any Democrats on board. After Paul Ryan agreed to the conference plan scheme, it looked like the four Senators were back on board and that the anorexic bill would pass through the Senate. The final vote took place early this morning  at 130 AM.  It was a nail biter. Of the four Senators who giddily expressed their concerns on Thursday, only McCain stood by his words.  Together with Senators Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins he provided the critical third “no” vote. The Senate gasped in surprise. OBAMACARE L.IVES!  Planned Parenthood survives another day. John McCain proved he really is a Maverick. Trump tweeted “let Obamacare implode.”   The Senate is now moving on to the Defense bill.

A Women Scorned:  Before the health care vote, Lisa Murkowski didn’t seem at all intimidated by Interior Secretary Zinke’s unethical threats to cut Federal assistance to all things Alaskan as punishment if she didn’t get on Trump’s health care train.  Murkowski is in her third term, isn’t up for reelection until 2022, and previously withstood a challenge from a Tea Party candidate so little phases her.  She is also the Chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee and the Senate Appropriations Interior and Environment Subcommittee. She is not someone that Zinke should want to piss off, but he did.  Yesterday, she put off confirmation hearings for several of Zinke’s nominees until some as yet unscheduled date. And then she stood up to Trump, Zinke and McConnell by voting no for the Republican healthcare plan.    

Office Politics:  Right about now Sean Spicer is having a martini in a bunny suit and negotiating a contract to appear on one or more cable news programs, assuming he isn’t off practicing for his other offer, a spot on next season’s Dancing With the Stars.  He has got to be happy about his decision to quit rather than report to Trump’s new Communications Director Scaramucci.  Yesterday the Smooch launched a profanity laden rant against leakers calling Chief of Staff Priebus a f-cking schizophrenic, a paranoiac.  His words for Steve Bannon, involved some contortionist moves.  He called for everyone on the White House staff to be fired, or else.  Later in the day, he excused his vulgar take down, saying that’s just the way guys like him speak.  Scaramucci is in the process of selling his stake in Skybridge, a fund of funds, to a Chinese investor.  His sale needs government approval so keeping Trump happy helps him cash out.  He hasn’t passed his ethics review yet but so far he’s succeeding where it counts.  Trump has a new quality guy on his team.

Still in Session: Jeff Sessions said that he’s had better weeks but plans to stay on as Attorney General unless he is fired and with that he flew off for a few sunny days in  El Savador to combat the drug trade.  Senator Lindsey Graham spoke for most of the Senate by saying that if Sessions is fired “there will be holy hell to pay.” Adding that any effort to get rid of Special Counsel Mueller could be the “beginning of the end of the Trump presidency.”  Senator Graham also said that he plans to introduce a bill preventing any president from firing a special counsel.  It’s not clear that others will go as far as Graham to ensure that the rule of law is maintained.

Collateral Fallout: There were so many complaints from parents of Boy Scouts that the leader of the organization felt compelled to send out a letter apologizing for Trump’s wildly inappropriate speech to the young, impressionable crowd.  Trump’s Generals were so taken aback and surprised by his anti-transgender tweet, that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff reassured transgender soldiers, telling them to stay in place while he figures out whether he can get the policy reversed. National security advisor McMaster fired one of the remaining Mike Flynn holdovers, a hard line advisor on the Middle East whose portfolio included Iran. The action may make it easier for McMaster to convince Trump to be reasonable the next time the Iran nuclear agreement comes up for recertification.  The Russian sanctions legislation was sent to Trump’s desk yesterday for his signature.  It’s not clear whether he will sign it or face what is likely be a humiliating veto.  This morning in response to the new sanctions and facing the reality that he isn’t getting his compounds back anytime soon,  Putin seized two US properties and demanded a reduction in US Embassy staff, the retaliation that had been expected in the Fall after Obama seized the Russian properties and kicked Putin’s spies out.  Putin is just a wee bit disappointed in the performance of the guy he backed for President.

Tweet Decree

Sick Health Care:  Majority Leader McConnell continues to shepherd his health care legislation through the Senate employing a Byzantine process that no one understands.  Tuesday night his attempts to pass the Senate’s most recent version of Trumpcare failed when Senators Collins, Corker, Cotton, Graham, Heller, Moran, Murkowski and Paul abandoned ship.  Notably Senators Portman and Moore Capito voted yes, enticed by an extra $100 million to help people losing Medicaid pay for their insurance.   Wednesday his attempt to pass a straight repeal of Obamacare failed when a different mix of Senators this time including Moore Capito, Heller, Collins, Portman, Murkowski, Alexander and McCain voted no.  McCain’s “no” was a surprise, an indication that he meant what he said on Tuesday when he called for a return to a regular way legislative process involving Democrats.  McConnell is now moving towards some form of a “skinny repeal,” a last ditch effort which would hasten Obamacare’s demise by stripping away some taxes and skewing the insured population towards sicker people.  If a skinny repeal option passes, the Senate would then go to a conference committee with the House where a final Trumpcare plan would be negotiated behind closed doors.  Some, though not all, of the naysayers would likely vote for a skinny plan so the battle goes on.   

Tweet Decree: Wednesday morning, Trump who asserted he was a better friend to the LGBTQ community than Clinton, sent out a series of tweets saying “After consultation with my Generals and military experts please be advised that the US Government will not accept or allow …….Transgender individuals to serve in any capacity in the US Military.  Our Military must be focused on decisive and overwhelming victory and cannot be burdened with the tremendous medical costs and disruption that transgenders in the military would entail.  Thank you.” So much is wrong with this tweet. With a delay between the first and second tweet, many at the Pentagon initially thought that Trump was declaring war on North Korea.  Trump did not consult with the Pentagon, the Secretary of Defense or the Head of the Department of Veterans Affairs.  They all had no warning that this policy change was imminent and few of them believe that transgender soldiers are disruptive.  Estimates put the number of active transgender service people somewhere around 6,300, a small percentage of the 1.3 million active duty soldiers but a significant number of people whose lives have just been turned upside down. As to Trump’s claim that costs associated with transgender soldiers are huge, they are not.  Total annual medical costs for transgender soldiers are $8.4 million, 0.1%  of what is spent on military health care.  By comparison the military spent $84 million on Viagra and Cialis during 2014.  Lastly, transgender soldiers have no problem putting their lives on the line to achieve decisive victory.  Ask Kristen Beck, before she was Kristen, she was Chris a member of Seal Team Six. Encouraged by Pence and Steve Bannon, Trump made this decision to free up a stalled spending bill which includes some funds for his Mexico wall.  The bill was being held up by an amendment prohibiting military spending for sex reassignment surgery. He thought his overreaching decision would be popular with his base and with conservatives and no doubt some in his base are happy but a significant number of conservatives have come out in opposition including Utah’s Senators Hatch and Ernst, Iowa’s Senator Grassley and Arizona’s McCain, the head of the Senate Armed Services Committee who said “There is no reason to force service members who are able to fight, train and deploy  to leave the military, regardless of their gender identity.”  Commanding officers have told their transgender soldiers to stay put, for now, while they figure this one out.

Bully Sessions:   Trump continues to bully Attorney General Sessions in an effort to force his resignation so that he can move towards firing Special Counsel Mueller.  Wednesday morning he tweeted “Why didn’t AG Sessions replace Acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe, a Comey friend who was in charge of Clinton investigation but got big dollars ($700,000) for his wife’s political run from Hillary Clinton and her representatives.”  Again, everything was wrong with this tweet.  First, if Trump wants to replace McCabe, he can do it without Sessions and he knows that since he fired Comey, the last FBI Director.  Second, McCabe was not involved in the Clinton investigation.  Third, when McCabe’s wife was running for office she received money from a Democratic PAC, not from Clinton. Trump’s efforts to rid himself of Sessions so that he can get one step closer to firing Special Counsel Mueller are raising the hackles of Republican leadership who are uncharacteristically calling him out.  Majority Leader McConnell took time from his devious efforts to tank Obamacare to say that Sessions made the right decision when he recused himself from the Russia investigation and Senator Grassley, the head of the Judiciary Committee issued a warning that he would not allocate time to confirm any new attorney general by tweeting “the agenda for the Judiciary Committee is set for the rest of 2017.  Judges first, subcabinet second, AG no way.”  Sessions is holding firm, continuing to implement his Trump approved small minded policy objectives, this week he took on funding for sanctuary city police forces.  Sadly, Trump is like a dog with a bone, he has already discussed the possibility of a dismissal followed by a recess appointment for a Sessions replacement with his legal advisors.  Even though he has been told that firing Sessions would be a bigly problem for him, a dismissal by tweet remains a real possibility.  A truly bizarre strategy for a guy who insists neither he nor any of his staff and family have anything to hide.       

Russian Sanctions Bill:  The Russian Sanctions bill passed the House by a vote of 419 to 3.  As soon as the Senate and House work out their differences over whether or not North Korean sanctions should be included at this time, the bill will be sent to the White House for Trump to sign.  He’s not happy about having decisions about sanctions taken away from him and Putin is threatening to retaliate but Trump’s options are limited.  Both the House and the Senate have more than enough votes to override his veto. 

Smooch Attack:  Trump’s mini me Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci, picked a tweet fight with Chief of Staff Reince Priebus last night by accusing him of leaking his personal financial information.  He’s asked the FBI to investigate the felonious leak which isn’t really a leak because the information, filed more than thirty days ago, is publicly available.  White House dysfunction continues.               

Sigh and More Sighs

Sigh:  Trump’s Monday night speech to the Boy Scout Jamboree in West Virginia was widely seen as inappropriate and crass so much so that the Boys Scouts of America felt compelled to issue a statement that the group is “wholly nonpartisan and does not promote any one political position, candidate or philosophy.”  In other ways the trip was a wild success because time spent with Trump and an extra $100 billion for people kicked off Medicaid convinced his traveling partner Senator Moore Capito to abandon her principles and vote yes on the measure to move the health care debate to the Senate floor. Also persuaded by the same $100 billion were Senators Portman and Heller. As expected, Senator McCain returned from Arizona in time for the Senate health care vote.  He gave a grand and emotional speech condemning the damage that extreme partisanship has done to government and calling for a return to regular order, committee hearings and a bipartisan legislative process.  He then voted yes for the highly partisan, opaque Republican effort to dismantle Obamacare providing the critical last vote needed to proceed with the healthcare debate. He tempered his hypocrisy by saying that he wouldn’t vote yes for any of the options currently under consideration unless they were substantially amended.  Rand Paul, who had been a hold out, voted yes after he was promised that a full Obamacare Repeal would be one of the options put to a vote.  Republican Senators Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins stayed strong, withstood Trump’s pressure and joined the Democrats by voting no.  As expected Vice President Pence broke the tie.  A chorus of protestors started yelling, “kill the bill don’t kill us.”  Trump celebrated, bragged about his deep understanding of the nuance of health insurance, promised a great health plan for all except the twenty million plus he would cut from the insurance rolls, and went to a rally in Ohio with many of the people his plan would hurt most, leading the clueless crowd in a chant of “we will not fail, we will not fail.”  The battle for health care is still on.        

More Sighs:   The Senate is now debating and voting on all options including a full Obamacare repeal, the House plan, the Senate plan, and a more modest “skinny repeal” that would leave much of Obamacare intact but would eliminate the individual and employee mandates and the medical device tax, and if all else fails would give the Senate a starting point for further negotiations with the House.  Due to the parliamentarian’s ruling some of the votes will require sixty ayes, some will require only fifty, plus Pence. Already last night, the Trumpcare plan that the Senate had spent week’s negotiating fell after receiving only forty-three votes but the votes continue on a number of other plans and iterations.  McConnell is back to his starting point, trying to negotiate a deal between the competing factions of the Republican party, with the Democrats all on the sidelines.  In theory, with Obamacare gaining in popularity and all versions of Trumpcare polling in the teens, success should be impossible, but McConnell has made it this far and could still eke out some version of a victory, for anyone who considers sending their constituents home with an aspirin and a prayer a victory. 

Sessions v Trump:  Trump spent a good portion of his day bad mouthing his Attorney General, using all the tools in his arsenal, short of an outright dismissal, to humiliate Sessions in the hope that he will resign.  He tweet smacked and then in a press conference with Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri, he spoke of his displeasure with Sessions’ recusal from the Russia investigation and his failure to go after Hillary for her missing emails, illegal server and chronic cough.  In the same press conference, he demonstrated his diplomatic acumen when he called Hezbollah out as a terrorist organization, forgetting that they are a member of Al-Hariri’s shaky coalition.  Bolstered by support from the conservative press including Breitbart and Rush Limbaugh who applaud his efforts to dismantle civil rights regulations and limit immigration, Sessions is  standing firm for now.  Sessions is also receiving support from most of his Senate colleagues, Republicans adore him and many Democrats, who ordinarily wouldn’t be in his camp, prefer him to the alternative, a new Trump appointed toady. When asked if he intends to fire Sessions, Trump said “We will see what happens.  Time will tell.”  Expectations remain high that Trump will ditch Sessions sooner rather than later.  A number of Democratic Senators are trying to figure out if they can keep the Senate in session through August to deny Trump the opportunity to bypass the regular confirmation process with a recusal appointment for that toady whoever he or she may be, they may have Republican support for their strategy.      

More Testimony:  Yesterday Kushner spent a lot of time in a closed door meeting with the House Intelligence Committee.  Reports from the confidential meeting are that he was cooperative, answered what he could and said he would come back for more when requested.  So far his decision to retain the best lawyers money can buy is paying off.  He stands by his assertion that he didn’t read the email requesting his presence at the meeting with the Russian lawyer and her traveling squad because he was too busy.  However, he did mention another email that he received requesting money in exchange for Trump’s tax returns.  That email he managed to read in its entirety before forwarding it to the FBI.  Former campaign official Paul  Manafort met with the Senate Intelligence Committee and  provided contemporaneous notes he took at the meeting with the Russian lawyer and her cronies. No word yet if his notes match Kushner’s testimony.  Manafort had been subpoenaed to testify in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee today, but after a tense negotiation and a promise to provide more information, the subpoena was pulled,  his  testimony has been postponed. Donny Jr should be the next on the hot seat.         

More Turnover:  Smoochy Scaramucci has started cleaning shop in the White House Communications department in an effort to root out leakers.  Yesterday press aide Michael Short resigned a minute before he would have been fired and a number of other people, mostly associates of Chief of Staff Priebus, are expected to be booted next.   Priebus is on thin ice, if Trump could find someone to replace him, he would be gone too.  Though a State Department spokesperson denied that Secretary of State Tillerson is considering an early requirement, he isn’t happy.  He’s currently on a mini vacation, he may or may not return.  Security Advisor McMaster is also an unhappy camper. He fought hard to get Trump to recertify that Iran is meeting the terms of its nuclear agreement and can’t be pleased that Trump told the Wall Street Journal yesterday that he does not plan to recertify Iran at the end of the next ninety day recertification period whether or not they are in compliance with the terms of the agreement.          

Overwhelmed and Beleaguered

Today’s the Day:  The big health care voting process begins today.  Majority Leader McConnell plans to ask the Senate to vote to bring a mystery bill to the Senate floor keeping his plans as vague as possible.  If he can muster the fifty votes, plus Pence, needed to get to the floor, he will then shape a health bill on the fly, taking a little from the House plan, a little from the Senate bill, and a lot away from Obamacare, leaving at least twenty two million or more, if he goes with a straight Obamacare repeal, without health insurance.  The strategy sounds preposterous, after all this is about health care and Medicaid and impacts one sixth of the economy.  Nevertheless many Republican Senators say that they will vote to move forward with whatever McConnell proposes.  Trump ranted “Obamacare is death, its broken, its gone” and spent the day attacking Democrats for being obstructionists and threatening the few doubting Republicans to get with his program or else.  He attended a Boy Scout Jamboree in West Virginia with West Virginia Senator Moore Capito hoping that a ride on Air Force One would be enough to convince her to abandon the health needs of her constituents.  And sadly despite the wacky inappropriate speech he delivered to thirty thousand boy scouts about his electoral college victory, the false news media, and the importance of voting yes for whatever his health plan may be, his strategy might work.  Late in the day, Senator McCain, the beneficiary of the best health care money can buy, announced that he will be flying to Washington to participate in the vote so the opposition is back to needing three Republican “no” votes to shut down the process.  I’d like to think that common sense would prevail and that Senators from states with large Medicaid populations, with rural populations and opioid addiction problems would see the light and vote against proceeding.  I’d like to think that faced with a monumental health crisis, Senator McCain would vote against a process that could lead to millions of people losing access to healthcare.  I’d like to think that the Senators would reach across the partisan divide, fix Obamacare’s flaws, restore stability to the individual markets and figure out a way to reduce premiums and drug costs but I am feeling very pessimistic about this process.  I hope I am wrong.    

The Overwhelmed Man:  Monday, before he met with Senate Intelligence Committee staff, Jared Kushner’s lawyers released a carefully worded eleven page treatise. Apparently Jared Kushner, Renaissance Man extraordinaire, has a few flaws.  He is easily overwhelmed, politically naïve, has attention deficit disorder and isn’t good with details.  Additionally, he didn’t seek the spotlight, did not collude with Russia, doesn’t believe that anyone else in the Trump organization did, and doesn’t rely on Russian funding for his businesses.  As to the Don Jr email, he didn’t read it in its entirety and somehow or other missed the subject line stating it was about getting confidential, Hillary damaging material from the Russian government.  If the meeting was inappropriate, then the blame belongs to little Donny, the person responsible for that meeting. Trump beware, throwing family under the bus is not a problem for Jared.  As to the four meetings he had with Russians,  they were all initiated by the Russians, he didn’t even know that Kislyak was the Russian Ambassador, he did discuss a back channel but only because he wanted to initiate conversations about Syria with Putin and his generals, and he only met with the Putin associated Russian banker because Kislyak asked him twice, nicely and it was part of his job to be diplomatic.  Lastly, despite all of his naivete and his attention problems, he is a highly valued aide and the very best person for all of his jobs.  Tomorrow, he gets to go through a similar routine with the House Intelligence Committee this time under oath.  Representative Devin Nunes, who is supposed to be recused from the Russia investigation, plans to attend to make sure that Ranking Member Adam Schiff, who Trump has now nicknamed Sleazy Schiff,  gets no answers to any tough questions.      

The Beleaguered Lawyer:  Trump started the day with a tweet asking “why aren’t the Committees and investigators, and of course our beleaguered A.G. looking into Crooked Hillarys crimes & Russia relations.”  He really, really wants Attorney General Jeff Sessions to resign to save him from having to formally wield the axe so that he can then put a new Attorney General in place who would have the authority to fire Special Counsel Mueller, a misguided attempt to make the whole Russia investigation go away.  Later in the day, the Washington Post reported that Trump and his advisors are considering forcing Sessions out during the upcoming Senate August recess, assuming the recess ever takes place. An Attorney General appointed during the Senate recess could serve until January without going through a Senate confirmation process where he or she would presumably be asked whether firing Mueller would be an acceptable thing to do. There were rumors that in anticipation of a Sessions departure, Trump had already put former Mayor Rudy Giuliani on tap.  Giuliani, one of his most dedicated campaign supporters and the man who helped craft the original travel ban swatted that suggestion away adding that Sessions did the right thing when he recused himself from the Russia investigation.  In addition to Giuliani, Senator Ted Cruz is being suggested as a possible appointment.  It’s not clear that Cruz would understand or care that dismissing Mueller and launching an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s “crimes” would be a bigly step towards attaining banana republic status.      

The Scientist Who is Now an Accountant:  Up until last week Joel Clement was a senior scientist in the Department of the Interior responsible for helping endangered communities in Alaska prepare and adapt for the dire effects of their changing climate. In June, he and fifty of his colleagues were involuntarily reassigned to positions in areas outside of their expertise and in many cases far from their home bases.  Clement’s new assignment has him working in an accounting department that collects royalty checks, not the best use of his skills but a great place to stick a scientist if you don’t believe in climate change.  He is now also a whistleblower, drawing attention to Interior Secretary Zinke and the Trump administration’s ignorant efforts to deny science.

Trump woke up today, agitated and very nervous about something or everything: the health care vote, his Sessions strategy or Jared’s next round of testimony.  By 6:30 AM he’d already sent out a series of frazzled tweets, attacking Acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe, Jeff Sessions, and Hillary Clinton.  Just another day in Trumpland.  

Scary Mooch

Six Months In:  A revamped legal team and a new communications director were supposed to lead to changes at the White House but if this weekend is any indication, nothing has changed.  Trump started tweeting at 3:30 AM on Saturday with “While all agree the US president has the complete power to pardon, why think of that when only crime so far is LEAKS against us.  FAKE NEWS.” He’s right, he can pardon his family and friends, though a number of legal experts including Harvard’s Laurence Tribe say he cannot self-pardon,  though this is untested mostly because no one has tried, so far.  He also dwelled on his frenemy Jeff Sessions, “A new INTELLIGENCE LEAK from the Amazon Washington Post, this time against A.G. Jeff Sessions.  These illegal leaks, like Comey’s must stop.” With this tweet he may have confirmed that Friday’s leak alleging that Sessions had discussed the elections and Trump policy with former Russian Ambassador Kislyak is true.  For his part, Sessions is accelerating his efforts to limit civil rights, eliminate sanctuary cities, return to mandatory Federal sentencing, and reinstate civil forfeiture decrees. If his days are numbered, he is going to leave in a blaze of glory.    

Scary Mooch:  Trump’s new Communications Director, Anthony Scaramucci aka the Mooch, tellingly began his new gig by solidifying his relationship with Breitbart News before hitting the Sunday morning talk shows.  Trump is awesome, he’s a great athlete and a brilliant intellect with terrific Karma.  The problem isn’t Trump and his stalled agenda, it’s the mainstream press, their failure to report on Trump’s accomplishments not to mention all of those criminal leakers, including the ones lurking on the White House communications staff who he plans to fire as soon as today.  As to the Mooch, he’s very, very rich and he wants you to know that.  Rich or not he hasn’t figured out his new responsibilities.  Trump surrogates were all over the talk shows on Sunday but the Mooch must have been too busy counting his money to sync their messages.  In between expressing his undying admiration for Trump and providing make-up advice to Sarah Huckabee Sanders, he contradicted Sanders and Trump’s legal adviser. A more stylishly made-up Sanders said that Trump would sign the Russian sanctions legislation that is likely to hit his desk next week.  The Mooch, out of the loop, said that Trump was still considering his options.  Asked whether Trump was seriously considering pardons, the Mooch said that Trump and he had discussed pardon possibilities in one of their Oval Office lovefests.  Trump’s legal advisor, Jay Sekulow acknowledged presidential pardon power but pushed back on the threat saying they weren’t on the table because “there is nothing to be pardoned from.”

The Sanctions Legislation:  Legislation imposing stricter sanctions on Russia, as well as additional sanctions on Iran and North Korea, finally has House support.  White House efforts to water down the sanctions provisions, vesting more power with the president, have largely failed.  Except for some tweaking benefitting Secretary of State Tillerson’s old oil industry buddies, the sanctions bill hasn’t changed much from the version overwhelmingly approved by the Senate.  It still limits Trump’s abilities to make his BFF Putin happy.  Trump is in a bind, the combination of widespread Congressional support and acknowledgement that the Russians interfered in the election process, a concern that neither he nor the Mooch believe is valid, make it difficult for him to successfully veto the bill, so as Sanders said, he is expected to sign the legislation when it hits his desk.  Those Russian compounds will not be returned to Putin in the immediate future.  Putin will probably kick a few US spies out of Russia soon, the retaliation that was expected last fall but was held up because Putin thought that his friend Trump would return the compounds immediately following the inauguration in exchange for electoral support.  As to Tillerson, despite his success here, CNN reports that he’s probably not planning to stick around very much longer.  They say he’d been quietly telling friends that he would be home by Christmas but now may be contemplating an earlier exit.  Serving as Secretary of State in an administration that doesn’t value a Secretary of State isn’t all that rewarding.  

Health Care or Bust:  The health care bill is still on target for a Tuesday vote but as Senator Susan Collins says lawmakers “don’t know whether we’re going to be voting on the, House bill, the first version of the Senate bill, the second version of the Senate bill, a new version of the Senate bill or a 2015 bill that would have repealed the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) now and that somehow we’ll figure out a replacement over the next two years.”  Regardless of what is put on the table, she will be voting no.  A large number of Senators will vote no for a repeal, replace later strategy and a smaller number would probably vote no for a version of Trumpcare.  Before any health care legislation can even get to the floor for a “vote-a-rama” amendment process, the Senate will first have to vote to proceed and as of now it’s not clear that there are fifty yes votes plus the ever reliable Pence to even get a bill to the floor.  If a bill makes it to the floor the pressure will mount to pass something and some of the wavering “no” voting Senators could get swept into the magic fifty plus Pence needed for passage so a best case scenario would be for the bill to die before it gets that far.  Only Senator McCain and possibly Majority Leader McConnell know if he is well enough to board a Trump jet to Washington to cast a less than heroic vote for a no-care health care bill and without him, McConnell’s task is even harder.  

Dream a Little Dream:  Last week Republican Senator Graham and Democratic Senator Durbin introduced Dream Act legislation that would put people who arrived in the US before they were eighteen on a path to citizenship.  Trump has been all over the place on this one.  During the campaign, he called for “DACA” kids to be deported then he temporarily stuck with Obama’s DACA decree, issuing more work permits for the “illegal” DACA kids.  Led by Texas a number of state attorneys general are suing to force Trump to end the DACA program, and more are calling for keeping the program in place.  With time running out a permanent fix would be the best outcome for ensuring that the DACA kids would get to stay and move on with their lives.  Trump has said that he wants to deal with these Dreamers with a “heart” but getting this legislation through Congress and then getting it to Trump to test whether he really does have that heart remains a long shot.    

Kushner Today:  Jared Kushner will be meeting with the Senate Intelligence Committee staff and leaders today behind closed doors.  He will not be under oath.  In anticipation, he just released a lengthy statement about his interactions. And by the way a few speed readers say that it says that his Russia meetings weren’t significant, or so he says.  Manafort and Don Jr will be in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee later in the week, again not under oath and in private.  In preparation, Donny has hired another lawyer, Karina Lynch, to supplement Alan Futerfas, the lawyer he hired two weeks ago.   

Friday Night Lights

Good News From the Parliamentarian:  Yesterday, Elizabeth MacDonough, the Senate Parliamentarian, challenged several key elements of the Trumpcare bill including abortion coverage restrictions, a ban on payments to Planned Parenthood and changes to Medicaid coverage requirements indicating that in her view they are not budget issues and therefore should not qualify for passage through reconciliation, which at its core is a budget tool. Although this sounds arcane it is really significant because it means that these changes could only be implemented with sixty votes as opposed to the fifty-one (fifty plus Vice President Pence) needed for passage of the rest of Trumpcare.  MacDonough also suggested that she would block plans to allow states to spend any unused Medicaid funds on non-health projects, would not allow the provision that requires people with gaps in their health coverage to wait six months before buying a plan on the individual markets and would prohibit plans that drop some coverage requirements in later years.  Democrats also believe that she would not allow the state specific provisions that benefit Alaska and upstate New York that were included as sweeteners for Alaska Senator Murkowski and some upstate NY congressmen.  Senator Majority Leader McConnell still hasn’t revealed what version of health care legislation will be submitted for a vote on Tuesday but whether it’s a version of Trumpcare or a straight Obamacare repeal, the Parliamentarian’s ruling makes passing any health care legislation much more difficult.  Trump is right, health care is complicated.    

No More Spicey:  Sean Spicer resigned on Friday after Trump decided to appoint Anthony Scaramucci as the new White House Communications Director. Scaramucci, known as the “Mooch” is a former investment banker, hedge fund manager, Fox Business News commentator, author and occasional Trump surrogate.  He was also responsible for raising big bucks for Trump’s campaign and has been angling for a White House job for a while. Before getting the Communications gig, he was in a holding pattern at the Export-Import Bank.  Spicer and Chief of Staff Priebus vehemently opposed his hiring because of their reservations about his lack of relevant experience,  Bannon also expressed serious reservations.  The three were overridden by Ivanka, Jared and, most importantly, Trump.  Spicer stunned everyone by resigning immediately after the Mooch was appointed. The less than stellar Sarah Huckabee Sanders was appointed to fill Spicer’s shoes as press secretary.   In the press conference announcing his new role, the Mooch was charming, polished and obsequious as he expressed his undying love for Trump, so much so that he repeated the love part several times.  When asked if he agreed with Trump’s view that three million fraudulent voters had cast their votes for Hillary Clinton during the 2016 election he responded if Trump believes it, it must be true.  A smoother talker in fancier duds but otherwise little has changed.  For the moment Priebus is clinging to his position but he may be next on the unemployment line.     

Rough Week for Sessions:  Last night the Washington Post reported that US intelligence agencies intercepted phone conversations between Russian Ambassador Kislyak and the Kremlin in which Kislyak reported discussing the presidential campaign and prospects for US-Russia relations under a Trump administration with then Senator Sessions during two of their meetings during the 2016 campaign.  Assuming Kislyak wasn’t embellishing his reports to earn brownie points with Putin, this is a bigly problem for Sessions. Sessions failure to mention meeting with Kislyak followed by his subsequent statements that his meetings were inconsequential and that he had no recollection of ever discussing the election or anything else with any Russians operatives is hardly a good thing. Back when Former FBI Director Comey testified in front of the Senate Intelligence Committee he said that one of the reasons that he didn’t go to Sessions with his concerns about Trump’s inappropriate requests was because he expected that Sessions would be recusing himself from the Russia investigation. Comey may have known about these intercepts. Earlier this week Trump expressed his frustration with Sessions because of his recusal from all things Russian so now it’s being suggested that the White House was the source for the WaPo story as part of an effort to further tarnish Sessions.  If  Sessions joins Spicer on that growing unemployment line, Special Counsel Mueller would get a new boss, assuming Trump could get another Attorney General through Senate confirmation.   

Canceled Dates: This one isn’t too surprising.  Don Jr and Paul Manafort’s lawyers have cut a deal to avoid having their clients appear in a high profile public hearing.  Instead of testifying in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee next week both men have agreed to turn over documents and to be interviewed by staff in private in anticipation of future testimony.  Stay close to the dial or your i-phone app, there is still a chance for some must see TV next week.  Judiciary Chairman Grassley has subpoenaed a not very cooperative Glenn Simpson, the co-founder of Fusion GPS, to appear before the Committee.  Simpson’s firm produced the infamous dossier that contains some dicey but unverified information about Trump including details of his alleged p-date with prostitutes during a visit to Russia.   

Omitted Assets:  Jared Kushner is still expected to meet with the staff and leadership of the Senate Intelligence Committee next week and is now also scheduled for a similar meeting with the House Intelligence Committee.  Kushner seems to have real problems completing  forms.  Yesterday he submitted another revised ethics filing amended to include more than seventy assets that he “inadvertently” left out of his earlier financial filings. Apparently, the guy who is responsible for Middle East peace, the reinvention of government, updating technology and who serves as the shadow Secretary of State in his spare time is just not all that into details.

Pardon Me

Pardons R Us: Things are getting ugly.  On Wednesday, Trump told the New York Times that Special Counsel Mueller should stick within the scope of his mandate, by which Trump means that Mueller should stay away from investigating Trump family members and Trump finances especially if the investigation of the Trumps and their finances is a key part of the Russian probe.  Thursday, Bloomberg news reported that Mueller has already crossed this red line.  He is investigating Trump financial activity focusing on Russian purchases of Trump condominiums, the 2013 Miss Universe Contest and the purchase and subsequent sale of a property in Florida at a suspiciously inflated price. All of these could involve financial dealings with Putin related Russian oligarchs and shady financial dealings including money laundering so, despite Trump’s protest, they are Russia related.  Jay Sekulow, one of Trump’s lawyers responded quickly to the Bloomberg article saying that Trump’s legal team intends to make sure that Mueller stays within “the scope of his assignment” or at least the scope they want him to stay within.  So it doesn’t come as much of a surprise that the Washington Post reports that Trump’s legal team is now looking for ways to discredit Mueller, alleging that he has conflicts of interest that make him unsuited for the investigation. There is even a suggestion that Mueller has a grudge against Trump because of an alleged dispute over dues at a Trump golf club, something the usually silent Mueller has already denied.  Trump’s lawyers are also exploring a president’s powers to pardon aides, family members and himself, a pretty convincing indication that Mueller is on to something bigly. At the same time, Trump’s legal team is undergoing changes. Marc Kasowitz has had his legal role cut back and Mark Carallo, a spokesman for Trump’s personal legal team has jumped ship.  No reason has been given but before signing on Carallo had complimented Mueller’s integrity and honor and had tweeted critical comments about Trump, it looks like he doesn’t want anything more to do with the Trump circus.  The changes aren’t helping, after newest lawyer Ty Cobb lectured Trump and his team on Tuesday about the importance of message discipline, Trump went out and gave his inexplicable NY Times interview.   

Sessions, Rosenstein, and Tax Returns:  The path to firing Mueller runs through Attorney General Sessions and Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein.  Sessions is recused from the Russia investigation so right now Rosenstein is the only person who could vanquish Mueller and he’s already on record saying that he wouldn’t fire him. Of course, Trump could fire Rosenstein and direct the next in line at the Justice Department to fire Mueller and so on.  Alternatively he could fire Sessions, replace him with a new Attorney General, one that wouldn’t be recused from the Russia investigation, and then have the new guy fire Mueller. Wednesday, Trump started the process when he told the New York Times that he was disappointed in Sessions  and doesn’t trust Rosenstein. Thursday both Sessions and Rosenstein said that they love their jobs and aren’t going anywhere so if Trump wants them out he’s going to have to do a lot more than disparage them in public. Asking for their resignations might sound farfetched but with Mueller getting closer and closer to obtaining Trump’s elusive tax returns it’s not out of the realm of possibility.  

Testimony on Tap:  Don Jr and Paul Manafort are supposed to be testifying in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee on Wednesday.  Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Manafort is now being investigated for money laundering.  Between Trump’s pardon inquiries and Manafort’s additional legal exposure, the Committee is concerned that neither one of them will show up so Committee leadership is preparing subpoenas to force them to appear.  Manafort is probably wondering if Trump’s investigation into his pardoning capabilities covers him or if he will be left holding the bag.  Kushner, who would definitely be protected by his father-in-law, at least as long as he is still married to favorite child Ivanka, is still expected to sit down with Senate Intelligence Committee staff next week, at least for now.   

The State of Health Care: Health care legislation remains in flux.  Republican Senators do not appear to be any closer to agreeing on legislation but McConnell still plans to push for a vote early next week. When asked how they would vote a number of Senators said they couldn’t answer because they still don’t know what they will be asked to vote on, Trumpcare or an Obamacare repeal.  Complicating matters, the Congressional Budget Office released another scoring report on Thursday.  This report scores the most recent version of Trumpcare but doesn’t score the unpopular Cruz Amendment.  The results are fairly similar to the Senate’s first version of Trumpcare:  15 million people would become uninsured next year with 22 million losing insurance by 2026.  The scorers also noted that by eliminating Obamacare subsidies, some deductible requirements reach $13,000, so high, especially for the targeted working poor, that they would be illegal, hardly a selling point for the few concerned moderates.  The deficit would be reduced by $420 billion, giving McConnell some more “influence” money to throw around.  For America, a conservative PAC, isn’t relying on McConnell’s persuasive skills or his bribes, they are pushing an attack video out this weekend through Facebook targeting Senators Murkowski, Moore Capito and Portman calling them traitors for their opposition to repealing Obamacare.           

Sanctions:  On Thursday, the Treasury Department fined Exxon $2 million for violating sanctions that were imposed on Russia in 2014 in response to Russian’s annexation of Crimea.  The Exxon violations occurred under the direction of then CEO Rex Tillerson who received his Order of Friendship medal from Putin in 2013.  While at Exxon, Tillerson said that he didn’t support sanctions, because “we don’t find them to be effective unless they are very well implemented comprehensively, and that’s a very hard thing to do,” especially when executives of major corporations willfully violate the law. The Senate has already passed legislation imposing new sanctions on Russia and it appears that the House is getting closer to signing off on their version of the bill over Trump and Tillerson’s objections. A presidential veto may be looming.  

Hire America: With all the attention on Health Insurance and Trump’s efforts to sabotage the Russia investigation, Made in America and Hire American Week isn’t getting much attention which may be why Trump’s Mar a Lago thought that no one would notice its application for seventy foreign worker visas.  It was noticed.

Trump Dump

Health Care the Soap Opera:   On Wednesday Trump hosted a luncheon for Republican Senators, telling them they better get back to work passing something: repeal, replace, whatever, or else.  To hammer home the “or else” part he singled out Nevada Senator Dean Heller, cynically asking him if he wants to stay a Senator. Majority Leader McConnell left the meeting, promising that there will be a vote on something next week, a version of Trumpcare or a straight Obamacare repeal. Trump said they were closer than ever to passing something.  Ted Cruz said they would look like fools if they don’t pass something. The opposing Republican groups were sent off to meet with administration staffers at  7:30 pm to work out their vast differences, guns and knives to be left at the door. Senator Susan Collins, whose mind is made up, excused herself from the meeting saying that she was due at her weekly spinning class.  It’s not clear that anything will come out of the group grope but huge efforts are being made to isolate, influence, and threaten each of the naysayers, an extra $200 billion is being thrown at Medicaid and some of them are likely to cave. It is also not clear if McConnell will be able to get the fifty votes he needs for a motion to proceed to even get a bill to the floor for a vote and last night’s sad announcement that Senator McCain has brain cancer has probably made his task even harder.  Late in the day the CBO released a scoring report for the Obamacare repeal option.  The CBO concluded that getting rid of Obamacare without an immediate replacement would result in a deficit reduction of $473 billion and would cause 32 million people to lose their insurance.  Premiums would rise by 25% in the short term, doubling by 2026.  A Fox News Poll says that 74% of people want Republicans to reach out to Democrats to come up with a health care plan. By all logic, this health care push whether it’s Trumpcare or a straight Obamacare repeal should be ten feet under but every soap opera has at least one character who repeatedly comes back from the dead no matter how harrowing his demise, so this isn’t over until it’s over. 

Trump Dump: Trump spilled his guts to the New York Times last night in an astounding interview that his staff, family, or advisors should never have permitted.  He started by going after Attorney General Jeff Sessions, saying that he never would have appointed him if he had known that he would recuse himself from the Russia investigation. It sounds like he wants Sessions to resign soon and if Sessions has any pride, he will.  He went on to criticize Deputy Attorney General Rob Rosenstein who stepped into Session’s shoes as the overseer of the Russian investigation for being from Baltimore, a city without any real Republicans, and for appointing Special Counsel Mueller.  Then he attacked former FBI Director Comey, bizarrely suggesting that when Comey pulled him aside in January to give him a heads up about the seamy accusations in the infamous graphic Steele dossier, he was blackmailing him, using the dossier as leverage.  He added that Comey had lied many times during his testimony in front of the Senate Intelligence Committee.  He also attacked Acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe citing his wife’s work on several Democratic campaigns as evidence that he is biased.  He saved a few special threats for Special Counsel Mueller, who he believes has many, many conflicts of interest.  He said that he had no plans to fire him but he added that he would reconsider if Mueller crossed a “red line” by straying from investigating Russia into Trump family finances.  He finished by expressing a very disturbing  belief that the Director of the FBI should report directly to  the president rather than the Department of Justice.  In a separate article, the New York Times reported that regulators are looking into Trump Family finances focusing on $300 million of loans made by Deutsche Bank’s wealth management department.  Deutsche Bank expects that information about the loans will be turned over to Special Counsel Mueller. If he hasn’t already, Mueller is about to cross that “red line.”  A Nixonian Saturday night massacre may be imminent.

The Russian Front:  During his NY Times interview, Trump also addressed his G 20 pop-up meeting with Putin.  He said that the one hour tete-a-tete  lasted only fifteen minutes and that beyond normal pleasantries, they only talked about Russian adoptions.  By Russian adoptions, he is using the code word for the sanctions that were imposed as part of the Magnitsky Act, the sanctions that Putin desperately wants lifted so that he and his oligarch friends can more freely move money through the US banking system.  Don Jr and Paul Manafort, who owed $17 million to Russian related entities as recently as December, have been invited to speak before an open session of the Senate Judiciary Committee next Wednesday to talk about their “Russian Adoption” meeting with Putin’s lawyer lackey Natalia Veselnitskaya.  Jared Kushner, whose company also has many outstanding Deutsche Bank loans, is expected to meet with the heads of the Senate Intelligence Committee and their staff on Monday behind closed doors.  Yesterday Trump ended covert CIA aid to Syrian rebels fighting Bashar al-Assad, a move that pleases Putin, who supports Assad.  This decision is considered a concession that will diminish US influence in Syria and may explain why Putin was so happy during that fifteen minute conversation that really lasted one hour.    

Voter Suppression Commission:  Trump kicked off the first meeting of his voter commission. He promised that the commission will be very transparent, as long as it finds the three to five million voters who illegally voted for Hillary Clinton and suggested that states that don’t participate must be hiding something.  After the meeting Kris Kobach, the Vice Chair of the commission, refused to acknowledge that Hillary won the popular vote.  Democratic Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois called Kobach a “hair on fire conspiracy theorist,” suggesting that he is looking for unicorns and won’t find any.      

After learning about John McCain’s diagnosis, President Obama tweeted  for all of us “Cancer doesn’t know what it’s up against. Give it hell John.” 

Trumpcare Autopsy

Health Care:  Thirteen men, hiding in a room created the Senate’s version of Trumpcare.  It died Monday night but like a really awful car crash the Trumpcare death scene is ugly and bloody and commanding lots of attention.  Trump is furious because he was caught completely off guard when Senators Moran and Lee announced they would vote against Trumpcare and because all he cares about is adding a win to Steve Bannon’s chalk board.  Yesterday he went on another one of his tirades, slamming Obamacare and cynically threatening to do whatever he can do to hasten its demise in order to force the “obstructionist” Democrats, who he blames for Trumpcare’s failure, to crawl back to the negotiating table they weren’t invited to in the first place. Under pressure from the White House, Majority Leader McConnell announced plans to move forward with an Obamacare repeal “replace someday,” strategy. Repealing Obamacare without providing a replacement would throw thirty-two million people off the insurance rolls so it’s hardly a strategy that makes any sense. Republicans voted for Obamacare repeal more than sixty times while Obama was president only because they knew that he would never sign the legislation so yesterday Republican Senators Murkowsky, Moore Capito and Collins, three sensible women whose contributions to McConnell’s thirteen man cabal might have created a more palatable Trumpcare plan, let him know that they will vote against his Obamacare repeal.  As a result, McConnell is short the fifty votes he needs. He still hopes to convince one of the dissenting Senators to vote yes on a motion to proceed so that he can bring the doomed Obamacare repeal to the Senate floor next week for a certain loss just to force all his Republican colleagues to go on record with their votes. Republicans who vote against the repeal will then be forced to wear big red O’s on their lapels, making them easier targets for future primary fights funded by right wing PACs.  There is still a chance that once the dust settles, the Senate will move on and fix the part of Obamacare that needs help.  Yesterday, despite Trump’s best efforts to talk Obamacare down the drain, Senator Lamar Alexander, Republican Chairman of the Senate’s Health Committee, announced plans to convene hearings to stabilize the individual insurance market. 

The Eighth Man:  Last week it was reported that eight people attended Don Jr, Paul Manafort and Jared Kushner’s meeting with Natalia Vesilnitskaya, the Russian lawyer and Friend of Putin.  By Friday, we knew the Russian team included the puffy British publicist Rob Goldstone who facilitated the meeting, the Russian American lobbyist and suspected spy Rinat Askhmetshin and Natalia’s translator.  Yesterday we learned that the eighth attendee was Ike Kaveladze who attended as a representative of the Agalarovs, Trump’s Russian real estate oligarch buddies who are also Friends of Putin.  Kaveladze, a Russian American, was the subject of an earlier investigation for his actions setting up thousands of shell corporations to move $1.4 billion of Russian money through US banks as part of a suspected money laundering scheme. Kaveladze’s lawyer reported that Kaveladze received a phone call from a member of Special Counsel Mueller’s investigative team over the weekend. He’s been invited to stop by for a chat.                   

An Aspiring Friend of Putin:  During the G 20 meetings, Trump had another previously undisclosed one on one meeting with Putin.  The tete-a-tete took place at a dinner for leaders and their spouses, no one from the press was present.  During the dinner,  Trump who was seated next to Japanese Prime Minister Abe,  got up, walked across the table and joined Putin for a one hour discussion. The only other person participating in the conversation was Putin’s translator since Trump’s translator for the evening was a Japanese specialist and spoke no Russian.  It’s not unusual for leaders to hob nob during these dinners, but an hour long unreported conversation without any other American present and without a trusted American translator is not the norm.  Other leaders present at the dinner noted the conversation but beyond observing that it was very animated, no one overheard what was being discussed. Last night the White House confirmed the conversation took place but did not report what was discussed and there is a good chance that only Trump, Putin, and Putin’s translator know what he said and possibly gave away. A furious Trump tweeted “fake news story of secret dinner with Putin is sick” and is “made to look sinister.”   Given all the questions about Trump’s Russia love, having a private conversation was ill advised and failing to disclose it and the topics discussed makes a questionable situation more alarming.  State Department officials have been meeting with their Russian counterparts who are demanding the return of the two disputed Russia compounds and the Trump team is still trying to squelch legislation that would impose additional sanctions on Russia.  Both efforts look increasingly suspicious in light of the “sinister” undisclosed conversation.  Last night Trump formally nominated Jon Huntsman, who served as the US Ambassador to China during the first Obama administration, as Ambassador to Russia.  If he’s lucky Huntsman will be allowed to attend Trump’s next secret meeting with Putin.   

The Road to Tax Reform: With attention focused on Trumpcare’s demise, the House released their 2018 budget blueprint on Tuesday.  The plan calls for large politically sensitive spending cuts for social programs including changes to Medicare,  combined with large increases in defense spending and a rollback in financial industry regulation.  House Majority Leader Ryan is hoping to avoid getting Democratic support by following reconciliation rules, a route that will be made more difficult by his unmanageable and difficult to please Freedom Caucus members.  Passing the budget plan is essential because it paves the way for the plum, Trump’s ambitious tax reform program.  Another battle looms.

Trumpcare RIP

Trumpcare RIP:  No one wanted to be the Senator responsible for dooming the Senate’s version of Trumpcare so last night as Trump was telling Republican leadership that they’d look like dopes if they didn’t pass the legislation, Kansas Senator Jerry Moran and Utah Senator Mike Lee linked arms and jointly tweeted themselves into the “no” column, joining Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and Maine Senator Susan Collins and bringing the “no” vote count over the edge.  Senators Moran, Lee and Paul said “no” because they believe that Trumpcare didn’t go far enough in repealing Obamacare, Collins said “no” because she thought it went too far. Wavering moderate Senators who had been hiding in the bushes were standing ready to pile onto the “no” bus but have been spared from putting their heads on the chopping block.  Senator Lindsey Graham tweeted for a new process and a new plan and Senator McCain, recuperating in Arizona, tweeted that it is time to go back to regular order coming up with a plan that takes care of everyone.  It’s fair to say that  McConnell couldn’t figure out how to solve the Trumpcare Rubik’s cube and that Trumpcare is dead.  A number of Republicans want to vote on a straight Obamacare repeal and last night a desperate Trump quickly jumped on the repeal bandwagon tweeting “Republicans should just REPEAL failing Obamacare now & work on a new Healthcare Plan that will start from a clean slate. Dems will join in!”  McConnell followed up with a statement that he is going to try to do just that, repeal Obamacare hoping to pass a new plan in two years.  A repeal, replace someday strategy is not expected to make it through the Senate.  Enough Republican Senators know it would be suicidal to destroy Obamacare without an immediate replacement so McConnell may just be going through a face saving exercise.  At some point he will have to dial 1 800 SCHUMER, and start working with Chuck on a joint bill to fix Obamacare’s flaws.  Health care is complicated.   

Mixed Messaging:  Trump can’t get Don Jr, Kushner and Manafort’s meeting with Natalia Veselnitskaya out of his mind.  He started his day tweeting “Most people would have gone to a meeting like the one Don Jr attended in order to get info on an opponent.  That’s politics!”  Sean Spicer, who’s been in hiding, reappeared at the daily press conference, or at least his voice did since the conference was held off camera.  Despite Trump’s admission that little Donny was looking for Hillary dirt, Spicer recycled the old narrative that the meeting was all about adoptions.  The Natalia meeting may be the least of Paul Manafort’s problems.  Last night the Wall Street Journal reported that the  Manhattan District Attorney has subpoenaed bank records relating to a loan given to Manafort and his wife by a small Chicago bank run by Steve Calk, a member of Trump’s campaign advisory council.  The $16 million loan was highly unusual because it represented 24% of the bank’s capital. Manafort has claimed that the loan was not unusual, but banks do not lend a quarter of their capital to one borrower.  Calk had been angling to be appointed Trump’s Army Secretary. Manafort remains silent, at least in public.  He’s been spending some quality time with Special Counsel Mueller.     

Made in America Week:   The launch of Made in America Week went as expected.  Trump bragged about steaks now being sold to China and then took credit for 45,000 new mining jobs, a slight exaggeration over the 800 mining jobs that have been created since he took office.  He talked about the importance of hiring Americans, reinvigorating manufacturing, and trade reciprocity. There was no discussion of all the Trump and Ivanka products made overseas.  During his speech, the administration announced the release of 15,000 new seasonal visas, because summer resorts are having a hard time filling jobs with Americans.  

The Polls:  Everybody released new polls yesterday.  Trump’s job approval numbers are hovering around 36%.  Polls indicate that a lot of people believe that he doesn’t act presidential and  most don’t like his tweeting but his core dedicated supporters are with him and, at least until last night’s Trumpcare failure, most Republicans think he’s the cat’s meow.  He had crappy approval numbers last year and won the primaries and the election so it’s hard to know what these numbers really mean. This morning, in response to a week of obfuscation about the Natalia meeting and on the tail of the Trumpcare fiasco, the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board finally spoke up and called him out saying the brutal realities of Washington politics “will destroy Mr. Trump, his family and their business reputation unless they change their strategy towards the Russia probe.  They don’t have much more time to do it.” They also said that they know that Trump will probably ignore their advice.

Iran Recertification:  Last night after a heated discussion with all of his security advisers, Trump agreed to certify again that Iran is meeting the terms of their international nuclear agreement. Security Advisor McMaster, Secretary of State Tillerson, Defense Secretary Mattis and Joint Chief Dunford beat him into submission, pushing hard for the recertification because one rogue nation barreling towards Armageddon is more than they can handle right now.  In exchange for his approval,  a very frustrated Trump sent his team off to come up with a strategy to toughen enforcement and better confront Iran for its support of terrorism before the next recertification date.   

The Eye of the Maverick

Sunday, Tweety, Sunday:  Sunday, before heading out to ignore protestors and bathe in the adulation of fans at the US Women’s Golf Tournament at his Bedminster course, Trump tweeted:  “Hillary Clinton can illegally get the questions to the Debate & delete 33,000 emails but my son Don is being scorned by the Fake News Media?”  He went on to thank his former aide Michael Caputo for saying that there was no Russian collusion. Definitive proof of collusion is not there, yet, but the timeline of campaign boasts in which Trump promised new damning information about Hillary and called for the Russians to find her missing emails coincides too neatly with Don Jr’s meeting with Natalia Veselnitskaya and her murky companions.  Additionally, the Don Jr news is certainly not fake and Trump’s efforts to distance himself from knowledge of the meeting does nothing to help his argument that Don Jr is an innocent idiot.  Though Trump’s spokes lawyer, Jay Sekulow, asserts Trump didn’t know anything about Don Jr’s Natalia meeting until his plane ride back from Hamburg, he couldn’t offer any explanation as to who other than Trump authorized his reelection campaign fund to pay Don Jr’s new lawyer a $50,000 down payment in late June, around the time that Kushner submitted revised security clearance forms revealing the Natalia meeting, but well before Trump says he knew about the meeting.  Sekulow, who appeared on five Sunday morning news shows, also asserts that Trump didn’t draft the misleading Don Jr press release that claimed the meeting was all about adoptions but artfully avoided confirming that Trump had approved it before it was sent out.  Countless times he reminded each of the talk show hosts that he can’t be expected to be up on all or any details because he represents Trump not little Donny.  He also called for an investigation into the Hillary campaign’s efforts to learn more about Manafort’s Ukraine exploits, blamed former FBI Director Comey and his “illegal” emails for the appointment of Special Counsel Mueller and the Secret Service for letting the sketchy Russians into Trump Tower.  Later in the day a Secret Service spokesperson, less than pleased at the department being used as a scapegoat, distanced their agents from Sekulow’s accusation by pointing out that Don Jr didn’t have their protection during the campaign. All of this is starting to impact Trump’s favorability ratings, something Trump acknowledged when he tweeted  “The ABC/Washington Post Poll, even though almost 40% is not bad at this time, was just about the most inaccurate poll around election time!”  It wasn’t.  

The Eye of the Maverick:  Senator John McCain, who has really good health insurance, had a craniotomy to remove a large blood clot from behind his eye and can’t travel back to Washington right now so Majority Leader McConnell, who needs every vote he can get, will not be bringing Trumpcare, the plan that takes health insurance away from millions, up for a vote this week.  Although McCain has been critical of the Trumpcare legislation he was likely to vote for it anyway, because though he talks like a maverick, when push comes to shove he tends to go with the herd.  While McCain was recuperating in Arizona, McConnell sent surrogates out to  talk up Trumpcare to anyone who would listen and to many who wouldn’t.  VP Pence went to the National Governors Association meeting in Rhode Island to try to convince the guys who actually run governments and have to answer to constituents that an $800 billion cut in Medicaid expenditures would strengthen Medicaid.  Though the full charm offensive was pressed on Republican Governors from states with wavering Republican Senators few appear to have been swayed.  So far Nevada Governor Sandoval, who received the most hugs and kisses still opposes Trumpcare.   The Office of Management and Budget Scoring Report was due out today but is now delayed. When it is finally released expect McConnell and his cohorts to continue slamming it’s veracity.  It’s still not clear whether the scorers will be including the Cruz amendment in their analysis so it’s possible that when released the report will show a small decrease in the number of people who lose insurance.  Don’t be fooled, scored or not the Cruz amendment will throw a lot of people off the insurance rolls and the insurance companies say it’s unworkable.  Health Secretary Price says that the insurance companies will be fine, they can “dust off how they did business before Obamacare” when few with pre-existing conditions could afford insurance.   There are still only two definite “no” votes, but McConnell’s decision to postpone the vote until McCain returns means that he is worried.  No one knows if more time out in the open will sink Trumpcare or advance its passage.        

The Perfect Spy:  Rinat Akhmetshin, the initially unidentified Russian American who attended Don Jr, Kushner, and Manfort’s meeting with Natalia and her apparatchiks, has a storied past.  He has fostered a reputation for obtaining email records using spyware and Russian hackers to get  “kompromat” against his clients’ opponents.  His not so sterling reputation and unique skills may explain why Don Jr and Kushner forgot to report his attendance at their now infamous meeting.     

Altered States:  The WSJ reports that in the lead up to the 2016 election there were nearly 150,000 attempts to penetrate South Carolina’s voter registration system.  Aware of the attempts, South Carolina worked with the Federal government and outside consultants to strengthen the state’s system by repairing vulnerabilities.  Because actual voter rolls were kept offline, South Carolina officials do not believe that the outcome of the election in the very pro Trump state was impacted but nevertheless their experience provides an indication of efforts that were ongoing nationwide during the last election and raise concerns about what the Russians could accomplish in the future especially if Kris Kobach, the head of Trumps Voter Fraud Commission, ever manages to put together a nationwide voter database.         

Made In America:  It’s time for another Trump administration theme week so this week has been designated Made in America week. When a reporter asked how many of Trump or Ivanka’s products are made in the US, a White House spokesperson said they’d have to get back to him.  As of last week, none of Ivanka’s products were produced in the US.  Made in America week doesn’t apply to Trumps.