Trumpcare Autopsy

Health Care:  Thirteen men, hiding in a room created the Senate’s version of Trumpcare.  It died Monday night but like a really awful car crash the Trumpcare death scene is ugly and bloody and commanding lots of attention.  Trump is furious because he was caught completely off guard when Senators Moran and Lee announced they would vote against Trumpcare and because all he cares about is adding a win to Steve Bannon’s chalk board.  Yesterday he went on another one of his tirades, slamming Obamacare and cynically threatening to do whatever he can do to hasten its demise in order to force the “obstructionist” Democrats, who he blames for Trumpcare’s failure, to crawl back to the negotiating table they weren’t invited to in the first place. Under pressure from the White House, Majority Leader McConnell announced plans to move forward with an Obamacare repeal “replace someday,” strategy. Repealing Obamacare without providing a replacement would throw thirty-two million people off the insurance rolls so it’s hardly a strategy that makes any sense. Republicans voted for Obamacare repeal more than sixty times while Obama was president only because they knew that he would never sign the legislation so yesterday Republican Senators Murkowsky, Moore Capito and Collins, three sensible women whose contributions to McConnell’s thirteen man cabal might have created a more palatable Trumpcare plan, let him know that they will vote against his Obamacare repeal.  As a result, McConnell is short the fifty votes he needs. He still hopes to convince one of the dissenting Senators to vote yes on a motion to proceed so that he can bring the doomed Obamacare repeal to the Senate floor next week for a certain loss just to force all his Republican colleagues to go on record with their votes. Republicans who vote against the repeal will then be forced to wear big red O’s on their lapels, making them easier targets for future primary fights funded by right wing PACs.  There is still a chance that once the dust settles, the Senate will move on and fix the part of Obamacare that needs help.  Yesterday, despite Trump’s best efforts to talk Obamacare down the drain, Senator Lamar Alexander, Republican Chairman of the Senate’s Health Committee, announced plans to convene hearings to stabilize the individual insurance market. 

The Eighth Man:  Last week it was reported that eight people attended Don Jr, Paul Manafort and Jared Kushner’s meeting with Natalia Vesilnitskaya, the Russian lawyer and Friend of Putin.  By Friday, we knew the Russian team included the puffy British publicist Rob Goldstone who facilitated the meeting, the Russian American lobbyist and suspected spy Rinat Askhmetshin and Natalia’s translator.  Yesterday we learned that the eighth attendee was Ike Kaveladze who attended as a representative of the Agalarovs, Trump’s Russian real estate oligarch buddies who are also Friends of Putin.  Kaveladze, a Russian American, was the subject of an earlier investigation for his actions setting up thousands of shell corporations to move $1.4 billion of Russian money through US banks as part of a suspected money laundering scheme. Kaveladze’s lawyer reported that Kaveladze received a phone call from a member of Special Counsel Mueller’s investigative team over the weekend. He’s been invited to stop by for a chat.                   

An Aspiring Friend of Putin:  During the G 20 meetings, Trump had another previously undisclosed one on one meeting with Putin.  The tete-a-tete took place at a dinner for leaders and their spouses, no one from the press was present.  During the dinner,  Trump who was seated next to Japanese Prime Minister Abe,  got up, walked across the table and joined Putin for a one hour discussion. The only other person participating in the conversation was Putin’s translator since Trump’s translator for the evening was a Japanese specialist and spoke no Russian.  It’s not unusual for leaders to hob nob during these dinners, but an hour long unreported conversation without any other American present and without a trusted American translator is not the norm.  Other leaders present at the dinner noted the conversation but beyond observing that it was very animated, no one overheard what was being discussed. Last night the White House confirmed the conversation took place but did not report what was discussed and there is a good chance that only Trump, Putin, and Putin’s translator know what he said and possibly gave away. A furious Trump tweeted “fake news story of secret dinner with Putin is sick” and is “made to look sinister.”   Given all the questions about Trump’s Russia love, having a private conversation was ill advised and failing to disclose it and the topics discussed makes a questionable situation more alarming.  State Department officials have been meeting with their Russian counterparts who are demanding the return of the two disputed Russia compounds and the Trump team is still trying to squelch legislation that would impose additional sanctions on Russia.  Both efforts look increasingly suspicious in light of the “sinister” undisclosed conversation.  Last night Trump formally nominated Jon Huntsman, who served as the US Ambassador to China during the first Obama administration, as Ambassador to Russia.  If he’s lucky Huntsman will be allowed to attend Trump’s next secret meeting with Putin.   

The Road to Tax Reform: With attention focused on Trumpcare’s demise, the House released their 2018 budget blueprint on Tuesday.  The plan calls for large politically sensitive spending cuts for social programs including changes to Medicare,  combined with large increases in defense spending and a rollback in financial industry regulation.  House Majority Leader Ryan is hoping to avoid getting Democratic support by following reconciliation rules, a route that will be made more difficult by his unmanageable and difficult to please Freedom Caucus members.  Passing the budget plan is essential because it paves the way for the plum, Trump’s ambitious tax reform program.  Another battle looms.