More Bashing

North Korea Dilemma:  Before leaving for Poland Trump threatened North Korea and went after China in a series of morning tweets. He tweet attacked China’s trade with North Korea and dissed them for not stepping up their game against North Korea.  You don’t have to have a PhD in international affairs to understand that tweeting is not the way to approach an intractable diplomatic problem, especially when dealing with Kim Jong Un, a leader who probably doesn’t speak English and whose culture doesn’t lend itself to terse 140 letter messages. Aside from his incessant tweeting, in many ways Trump is reacting to increasing North Korean aggression in a manner similar to his predecessors.  He is pressuring China to curb trade with North Korea, he is preparing militarily while pushing for diplomatic solutions and he is trying to rally support at the UN and is likely to pursue the same strategy with NATO.  However, North Korea is an irrational actor led by a leader who believes his continued existence is tied to maintaining and enhancing his nuclear capabilities, China remains more concerned about the disintegration of North Korea and a more powerful South Korea than Kim Jong Un’s nuclear capabilities, and Trump has done nothing but insult traditional allies since taking office. The best outcome would be some direct negotiation between the US and North Korea resulting in the ratcheting down of aggressive actions, leaving Kim Jong Un’s nuclear capabilities in place.  The worst outcome is too awful to discuss.   

More of the Same:   Given the answer he gave an NBC reporter at this morning’s news conference with the President of Poland, the likelihood that Trump will take up Russian election meddling when he meets with Putin with anything more than a wink and a nod seems unlikely.  Trump responded to a question about Russian interference in the 2016 election by going back to his old standby that he thinks it was Russia but it could have been other people and/or countries.  He then went on to compare intelligence agencies conclusions about Russian meddling to the false claims about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.  He again blamed Obama for not doing enough during the run up to the 2016 election before adding that reports that so many US intelligence agencies have concluded that it was Russia overstated the number of US intelligence agencies. Apparently he doesn’t know that the US has lots of intelligence agencies.  Trump then cut off the “irritating” reporter. During the same press conference, he set the tone for his upcoming G 20 meetings by again bashing the “worst trade deals in world history,” he continued his criticism of the “fake news” particularly focusing on CNN and NBC and appeared to bond with Poland’s president over their mutual dislike of the press. Trump’s advisors are concerned about what will happen at his upcoming meeting with Putin and are pressing for him to be accompanied by both his security advisor McMaster and hawkish Russian expert Fiona Hill, the author of a psychological study of Putin. The hope is that Hill will kick Trump in the shins or body slam him to the ground if he starts getting too cozy with Putin or if he responds to Putin’s flattery by giving back the disputed Russian compounds and one or more Baltic nations.  

Bannon’s Star is Rising Again:  Trump’s nationalist tendencies are again being encouraged by Bannon who has returned to his position as Trump’s trusted advisor. Bannon together with Steve Miller, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and trade advisor Peter Navarro are pushing Trump to impose broad and strict trade restrictions on steel imports with tariffs as high as 25%.  All of Trump’s other advisors, including National Economic Council head Gary Cohn, disagree with this approach.  Steel overcapacity is one of the topics that will be discussed at the G 20 meetings and a Bannon approach would provoke serious pushback from the G 20 crowd. Cohn, who succeeded in keeping Trump from pulling out of NAFTA but failed with regard to the Paris Accords, is concerned about a trade war so he is leading the fight for a more targeted approach and thinks, but probably isn’t really sure, that he has succeeded in getting Trump on board. Cohn, who is also a lead player in the development of the as yet unseen tax reform plan, is also batting back Bannon’s call for increasing the top individual tax rate to 40% or more, a number that sends shivers down the back of Trump’s conservative supporters.  

Truth and Voter Suppression:  In addition to heading the much dismissed Voter Fraud Commission, Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach has now mastered the art of alternative truth telling.  Yesterday, as the number of states refusing to provide him with requested data continued to grow, Kobach pushed back hard saying that reports that states aren’t cooperating is just more fake news.  Another day in Trump world.