Oh Afghanistan

The Endless War:  The Brits fought three short Afghan wars, the Russians one long one and we’ve now been there for seventeen years, longer than all their years combined and it doesn’t look like we will be leaving anytime soon. Sticking to the text on a teleprompter that he could still see even though he foolishly looked directly into the sun during yesterday’s eclipse, Trump, who ran on a pledge to get out of Afghanistan as soon as possible, announced a commitment to fight as long as necessary to achieve victory and an “enduring and honorable outcome” whatever that means.  He didn’t specifically mention the size of his intended troop increase, a number that is probably around 4000, bringing the total number of US troops in Afghanistan to around 12,000.  His argument for changing his mind about staying is to avoid a hasty retreat that would likely result in a full takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban and an increase in ISIS and Al Qaeda terrorism.  Following a usual theme, he is putting pressure on regional allies to help out. This time the pressured ally is Pakistan who should “step up and cooperate” or he’ll call for India to get involved too, a new approach that won’t make Pakistan very happy but could push the testy neighbors towards another confrontation.  He also called for our NATO allies, the ones that he harasses for more money but was reluctant to promise to protect, to step up and assume their obligation to help out.  He emphasized the importance of eventually working out a negotiated settlement that will include the Taliban, but seems to have forgotten that he has disbanded the State Department office responsible for covering Afghanistan and dispersed all of the experts with regional expertise. By kicking the Afghanistan problem down the road, he makes it likely that withdrawing from Afghanistan will be his successor’s problem.  There is a reason that Afghanistan is known as a grave yard for foreign armies. At least for a brief moment, he diverted attention away from White House drama, Nazis, Russia, Charlottesville, and North Korea.

Next Up:  Trump started his Afghanistan speech by saying that there was no place for bigotry or prejudice and no tolerance for hate and that we should heal our differences. That was last night’s message, today he is off to Phoenix, Arizona for a campaign rally where he will exploit those differences, talking about illegal immigration and the importance of his big beautiful wall.  There is also a chance that he will further fan the flames of bigotry by pardoning former Sheriff Joe Arpaio who he greatly admires for the hardline anti-immigrant policies that got him into trouble in the first place.  Arpaio is due to be sentenced soon for violating a court order to end one of those practices, the targeting of Latino drivers.  Concerned about demonstrations, the Mayor of Phoenix  asked Trump to stay home.  Today could get ugly.

September Looms:  Unless Congress raises the debt ceiling, the country will run out of money by September 29 so when Congress returns from summer vacation the debt ceiling dance will begin.  Raising the debt ceiling is all about insuring there is enough money to pay for previously incurred bills but the right wing Freedom Caucus members typically vote against it in an attempt to force the government to reduce future spending so raising the ceiling requires bipartisan support.  Senate Majority Leader McConnell promises that there is “zero chance – no chance” Congress would fail to raise the debt ceiling in time to avoid a Treasury default. He’s assuming that he will be able to pass a “clean bill,” one that doesn’t including funding for Trump’s favorite beautiful wall, because if wall money is included, he will have a hard time getting the Democratic votes he needs. Hopefully, he is right. Congress also needs to help out the Secret Service, they are running out of money.  Given the size of the Trump family and their propensity for travel, agents have been working overtime and many have bumped up against annual compensation caps.  Without additional funding Trump will have to spend more time at the White House, Donny Jr and Eric will have to cancel their hunting vacations and business trips abroad and Ivanka and Jared won’t be able distance themselves whenever Trump does something they claim not to like.   

That Russian Guy:  When Donny Jr hosted his now infamous meeting with the Russian lawyer to ostensibly talk about “Russian adoptions” no one remembered to mention that Rinat Akhmetshin, a Russian-American with a shady cover story, was in attendance. It’s looking more and more likely that Akhmetshin really is a Russian spy with extensive expertise in cyber hacking.  In two different cases Akhmetshin hacked into the servers of someone one of his Putin related Russian oligarch clients was opposing.  In one of those cases Scotland Yard experts found that messages concealed in email he sent contained spyware meant to infiltrate  computers.  The spyware fed “traceable documents” that were then opened by computers in the Moscow office park of one of his client’s companies.  Kind of interesting that Jared Kushner, Paul Manafort and Donny Jr all forgot that they ever met Akhmetshin.  

Mar a Lago Keeps Bleeding:   The number of organizations that have cancelled Mar a Lago galas and fundraising luncheons is up to fifteen.  The Autism Project of Palm Beach County and the Raymond F Kravis Center for the Performing Arts have just cancelled their plans.  Mar a Lago will be calm and quiet when Trump and Melania leave Washington to avoid December’s annual Kennedy Center Honors presentation.  With a number of the honorees declining to attend if Trump is present, Trump has decided skip town, treating the few members of his beleaguered Secret Service contingent who haven’t hit their compensation caps to a weekend of fun in the sun.