Uniom, Union, Whatever

 State of the Uniom:  About the best thing that can be said about Trump’s overly long State of the Union speech is that, contrary to author Michael Wolff’s assertion, he can read, especially if he takes the time to practice, words are kept to one or two syllables and are rolled slowly on a teleprompter.  However, as evidenced by the uniom, union typo on the entry ticket, spelling or spellchecking remains a problem at the White House, where peach on earth isn’t a dessert but a goal for world tranquility. The speech which was supposed to bring America together, was more a celebration of Trump’s economic accomplishments, with a few anti-immigrant dog whistles thrown in to reassure his base that they remain his top priority, than an olive branch to Democrats.  Trump restated his immigration “must have” list, the one that has already been rejected by the bipartisan group of Senators working on the legislation. He took full credit for all of the positive economic trends that began under Obama and have continued through his first year, particularly focusing on the stock market and declines in minority unemployment. Still since he brags a lot, and most presidents take credit for anything positive that takes place while they’re in office, that part of his speech wasn’t all that unusual.  What was notable, particularly on a day when his administration failed to comply with legislation mandating more sanctions against Russia, was his failure to say anything about Putin’s continuing interference in elections around the world. As to the stock market, it took a hit yesterday likely in response to an announcement by JP Morgan, Berkshire Hathaway and Amazon that they were uniting to create some kind of health care behemoth, one that would provide insurance and drive down costs, particularly drug expenses. Trump doubled down on the drug slam last night, asserting that he had directed his team to come up with a strategy to push drug costs down. He’s said that before and done nothing, but in the wake of yesterday’s  Amazon and friends move, Trump’s much loved stock market might take him seriously. Market prognostication is not my field but if yesterday’s reaction was a guide, the pharmaceutical industry is in for a bumpy ride.      

The Nunes Memo:  The clock is ticking on the release of the deceptive Nunes memo, the one that discredits the Russia investigation by claiming that the FBI abused its surveillance tools by illegally obtaining the  Carter Page FISA warrant.  Yesterday, in an attempt to have it both ways, House Speaker Ryan called for the release of the memo saying that sunshine is the best antiseptic for malfeasance and then following up by saying that he is telling GOP House members that there needs to be separation between allegations of FISA cheating and the Special Counsel Robert Mueller investigation.  He also praised Rod Rosenstein, saying that “he is doing a fine job,” a reassurance that probably means that Rosenstein should be watching his back very carefully.  Later in the day, Sarah Huckabee Sanders responded to a question about the memo by saying that  "Contrary to a published report, there are no current plans to release the House Intelligence Committee's memo, the President has not seen or been briefed on the memo or reviewed its contents." Trump proved that Sanders statement was just another boldfaced White House lie, he may not have read it but he is committed to making sure that the memo is released.  Last night he got caught on a hot mic telling South Carolina Representative Jeff Duncan not to worry, he’s “100%” going to release it.  CNN reports that even before his speech he had told his aides that he wants the memo released as soon as possible and that he was only waiting until after the speech to limit distracting from his grand TV moment. The memo may be released as early as today. Trump’s war against Rosenstein, Mueller, the FBI and the Russia investigation wages on.

The Korean Front:  Trump isn’t just fighting with Mueller and company, he’s also preparing for war on the Korean penninsula.  He was on the verge of appointing Victor Cha, a respected academic and former Bush administration official, to serve as US Ambassador to South Korea.  Cha had been fully vetted and following usual practice his name had already been submitted to South Korea for approval.  South Korea was on board, relieved that the US was close to getting a diplomat in place in a region that could really use some expert diplomacy. However, yesterday after Cha expressed his opposition to the Trump administration’s serious consideration of a “bloody nose” preemptive strike against North Korea, Trump dropped him from consideration.  Cha responded by expressing his concerns in a Washington Post Op-Ed.  Cha is not the only one who thinks that such a strike would be both lethal and counterproductive, to put it mildly, Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dunford, Defense Secretary Mattis and Secretary of State Tillerson share his concerns. National Security Advisor McMaster is in the other camp, he’s all in on continuing with first strike preparations.  As to Trump, yesterday in the traditional pre State of the Union lunch with chief correspondents from the major networks he said that he wants to unite the country amid “tremendous divisiveness” and hopes he can do so without a traumatic event affecting Americans.  Adding, “I would love to be able to bring back our country into a great form of unity, without a major event where people pull together, that’s hard to do. But I would like to do it without that major event because usually that major event is not a good thing.” If his Nunes memo doesn’t kill the Russia investigation, Trump may move on to plan B, war with North Korea.  A frightening wag the dog strategy, but one that would probably work.  So much for peach on earth.

Tricky Dick Land

Hero For a Minute:  We’ve entered the Nixonian universe and it’s not pretty.  Yesterday, Andrew McCabe the embattled FBI Deputy Director who had briefly served as the Acting Director after Trump fired former Director Comey, announced that he was stepping down, leaving the FBI effective immediately.  McCabe had planned to leave in March once he attained the requisite years of service to retire at full pension, but is jumping ship early using his accumulated leave time to make up the difference.  Although the mendacious Sarah Huckabee Sanders denies that Trump had anything to do with McCabe’s early departure, her denial is deceptive nonsense.  Trump started speaking out against McCabe during the campaign and has been relentlessly hammering him with nasty tweets ever since.  Trump’s attacks have focused on McCabe’s wife’s failed 2015 campaign to serve in the Virginia legislature and the $600,000 that she received from then Governor McAuliffe’s PAC, a legitimate contribution from her Governor that was appropriately spent on campaign ads. Trump has repeatedly referred to the money as a payoff to McCabe from Hillary Clinton’s friends.  NBC reports that Trump ramped up his hostility to McCabe immediately after firing Comey.  Comey, who had been speaking to FBI agents in California when he learned he was fired, flew back to Washington on the FBI plane that had taken him there in the first place.  When Trump, who would have preferred that Comey fly home commercial, in coach, in a middle seat between two really fat, smelly people possibly from sh-thole countries, found out that he was allowed to use the plane for his return trip he was furious, he yelled at McCabe, wanting to know who had given Comey the permission to return on the FBI plane.  McCabe boldly responded by telling Trump that he hadn’t authorized the flight, but would have if asked.  A vindictive and petty Trump then “turned on McCabe, suggesting he ask his wife how it feels to be a loser” a reference to her election loss. McCabe replied, “OK, sir.”  Trump then hung up the phone.  Last week it had been reported that current FBI Director Christopher Wray had “heroically” said that he would quit rather than fire McCabe after being told by Attorney General Sessions that Trump wanted him ousted ASAP.  Wray’s hero status officially ended yesterday. The newly complicit Wray is using the impending release of an Inspector General report that is expected to be critical of the way that the FBI handled the Hillary Clinton emails as a justification for his change of heart and denies that Trump “persuasion” had anything to do with his decision to accelerate McCabe’s exit. Nevertheless, his Hillary Clinton email excuse sounds eerily similar to the one that Trump initially used for firing Comey.  Not only are these guys deplorable, but they are also woefully unoriginal. 

Next on the Chopping Block:  As expected, the Devon Nunes led House Intelligence Committee voted along party lines to release his classified memo, the one that asserts that the FBI abused the FISA warrant process to illegally obtain permission to surveil Carter Page, the devious Russia loving odd ball who served as an advisor to the Trump campaign and who had many curious and implicating conversations and meetings with Russian spies.  Among other things the Nunes memo argues that the warrant relied on the infamous Steele Dossier, the one that they believe is chock full of false information even though to date most of it has been proven true, given the disclosure of Trump’s porn star payoff, even the salacious parts of the dossier have gained credence. The Nunes argument is that if the warrant was inappropriately granted than there is no basis for the Russian investigation and thus no basis for Special Counsel Mueller’s appointment.  In any case, the FISA warrant process is very rigorous so obtaining the warrant would have required more justification than could have been provided by the Steele Dossier alone.  Significantly, the Nunes memo holds Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, Mueller’s boss, responsible for signing off on the “illegally” granted warrant.  Led by Adam Schiff, the Democratic members of the Committee have prepared a detailed response to what they assert are the intentionally misleading points in the Nunes memo.  However in a brazen attempt to control the narrative, the Republicans voted to withhold authorization for the release of the Democratic response for now, giving the Nunes version a head start in the news cycle. Fox News, or at least their sole realist, Sheppard Smith, thinks this is ridiculous.  Last night he called the Nunes memo a “weapon of partisan mass distraction.”  The Nunes memo contains confidential information and can only be released to the public after receiving White House approval, approval that Trump is anxious to provide. The Daily Beast reports that Trump threw a fit on his flight back from Davos when he learned that the Justice Department had sent a letter to Nunes asking him not to release the memo because of concern that its release would irreparably harm national security by revealing critical information about US intelligence gathering practices.  Despite the Justice Department’s reservations, Trump is expected to approve the release of the memo shortly, but probably not until after tonight’s State of the Union address.  To be clear, not only does the memo attack the credibility of the Mueller investigation but it also puts his position in jeopardy by attacking Rosenstein.  The road to Muller goes through Rosenstein and if Trump gets his way, Rosenstein will soon be on the chopping block.  If this sounds absurd, it’s because it is, Trump is out Dicking Nixon.

Russia, Russia, Russia:  The Trump administration has decided not to comply with the sanctions legislation that was passed last year, the legislation that mandated additional sanctions against Russia interfering in the 2016 elections.  Instead, the Treasury released a list of all the Russian oligarchs with a net worth of $1 billion or more, warning those who aren’t already on the existing sanctions list that they could be at some point in the future.  It’s not clear that the “naming and shaming” strategy will satisfy Congress.  In any case, it doesn’t seem that the emboldened Trump cares all that much about meeting the terms of the legislation.  As to that election interference, although Trump doesn’t believe it was or will be much of a problem going forward, yesterday CIA Director Pompeo told the BBC that he’s confident that the Russians will continue to try to interfere in the elections and that they will target the 2018 midterms.  He also said that the US has great intelligence gathering capabilities and that "We deliver nearly every day personally to the president the most exquisite truth that we know from the CIA." He didn’t add that he can’t help it if Trump then takes that truth, twists it, and turns it into lies.  As to that upcoming election, the Republican Chair of the House Appropriations Committee New Jersey’s own Rodney Frelinghuysen has announced that he will not be running for reelection.  He joins the growing list of Republicans who have decided that they won’t want to play in the House sandbox next year, especially if Nancy Pelosi or another Democrat becomes chief playground bully. In 2016 Trump won Frelinghuysen’s suburban district by a very small margin, it’s highly likely that it will swing Democrat in 2018.

#Wynning

#MeToo Las Vegas Style:  The Republican establishment’s initial reaction to the revelations that Steve Wynn, the Las Vegas Casino tycoon and Republican Finance Chair, is a serial sexual harasser who had made at least one $7.5 million payment to silence one of his accusers, a manicurist who worked for his casino conglomerate, was to shrug, hoping against hope that no one had read the Wall Street Journal article based on interviews with over hundred sources.  That strategy didn’t go over well, so after some serious dithering and a call with Trump that must have been very weird given his own history, the Republican National Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel, Mitt’s obsequious niece, gave Wynn the boot, forcing him to step down from his RNC finance position.  Though the party still has several billionaire donors, including the Koch Brothers and the Mercers, the loss of Wynn is significant. He raised lots of money, was a longtime acquaintance and sometime BFF of Trump, and given his Las Vegas home, was influential in Nevada politics. Since Republicans embarrassed Democrats into returning their tainted Harvey Weinstein contributions after his sins went public, they are under pressure to return their Wynn money.  When asked about this on Sunday, Senator Susan Collins was pleased to announce that she had never been a beneficiary of his largesse and called for those who were to ditch his money. Last night, a reluctant Paul Ryan said that he will be donating the $1000 that he received to charity and Representative Karen Handel who won the Atlanta 6 special election and who is facing another tough election in November also announced that she is sending her $2700 contribution to a women’s group.  Expect more similar disgorgements to follow. Wynn’s pressure on Dean Heller, Nevada’s imperiled Republican senator was one of the reasons that Heller, who at one point voted against the repeal of Obamacare, changed his vote to support repeal legislation.  Heller, who is up for reelection in November and who is viewed as one of the most vulnerable Republican senators, has now lost his most significant financial backer. The Wall Street Journal’s expose that triggered Wynn’s demise is particularly significant because for much of the Trump era, constrained by Rupert Murdoch’s personal conservative politics, the paper had been a minor player when it came to publishing Trump critical stories.  Between the Stormy Daniels porn star payoff story and this Wynn harassment story it appears that those constraints have been eased, the WSJ is now trying to get into the game, giving the NY Times and Washington Post a run for their money, or at least for the Pulitzers.  Murdoch may be having second thoughts about Trump.  Hillary Clinton is also having second thoughts, hers are about the way she allowed her spiritual advisor to stick with her 2008 campaign after he was accused of harassing another campaign aide.  She docked the guy’s pay and sent him for some “therapy” but didn’t fire him, the woman was reassigned.  Then again, that was 2008, the times have finally changed, or appeared to have changed for some, and most importantly, as Trump likes to remind us, she’s not president.      

#Release the Memo:  Trump is running scared, very, very scared.  The official White House position is that there was no collusion with the Russians, Trump is an innocent and obstruction is a farfetched fantasy.  As far as they are concerned Manafort and his crony Gates are just guys he never really knew whose bad deeds predate their involvement with Trump’s campaign. As to the two guys who’ve actually reached plea deals, Flynn is just a misguided really nice war hero who was tricked into lying, and George Papadopoulos was just a nefarious coffee boy.  The rest of the investigation, especially the focus on obstruction of justice, is just a Democratic plot to justify Hillary Clinton’s election loss by questioning the validity of Trump’s victory and an attempt by the deep state to overturn the will of the people, or at least the will of the Trump base.  Moreover, they have the facts to prove it, those “facts” are detailed in a memo prepared by Devon Nunes with the help of the House Intelligence Committee Republican assistants.  Nunes hopes to release his memo this week, possibly today, despite the opposition of the Trump run Department of Justice who fear that its contents will reveal critical information about US intelligence methods.  The memo is thought to be no more than a series of bullet points that detail Nunes’ assertions that the entire Mueller investigation, including his appointment, is based on spurious facts and an improperly obtained FISA warrant that relied solely on the disputed Steele Dossier. Though the contents and conclusions of the memo are questionable at best, it’s likely that Trump will declassify the memo and its contents so that it can be released ASAP, part of his efforts to delegitimize the Mueller investigation.  Trump has been trying to get rid of Mueller for a while, has been engaged in a strategy of ruining the reputations of the FBI agents who worked under Comey and would be more than happy to get rid of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein in order to accomplish his objectives.  It’s thought that the memo “documents” Rosenstein’s missteps, and attacks the FBI agents involved in all aspects of the Russia investigation. With the exception of West Virginia Senator Manchin, whose political future relies on him dancing on a political tightrope in his heavily pro-Trump Republican state, virtually all of the Democratic members of the Senate want legislation passed immediately to protect Mueller’s position.  Manchin’s not all that concerned that Trump would really fire Mueller, he thinks those private rants against Mueller are just examples of “New York” talk.  He, like many of his Republican associates, is willing to wait until Rosenstein’s body is found floating in the Potomac before putting in place any Mueller protection legislation.  Republican Senator Tillis, a previous co-sponsor of a bill to protect Mueller has mysteriously pulled his support, at least for now.  Lindsey Graham seems to be the only Republican in support of the legislation.  He still believes that Mueller is “the perfect guy to get to the bottom of all this, and he will.” He also believes that firing Mueller would end Trump’s presidency, at this point he may be the only Republican willing to say that out loud. For his part Rosenstein may want to start wearing water wings and a bullet proof vest, as long as he stands in the way of firing Mueller, his days may be numbered.  Despite his assertion that he can’t wait to testify, Trump’s lawyers are looking into ways to get him out from under that promise.  In addition to negotiating with Mueller about ways to minimize Trump’s exposure, the Wall Street Journal reports that Trump’s lawyers are looking at a 1997 federal court ruling that presidents are protected against disclosing information about their decision-making process if that information is available elsewhere.  The ruling is probably not all that applicable to testimony as opposed to physical evidence but could impede the Mueller investigation by providing Trump and his lawyers with a tool to initiate a court challenge that could delay his testimony for a while. As to Trump, he is still displaying his curious affinity for Putin and Russia, he still hasn’t implemented the financial sanctions on Russia mandated by the legislation that was overwhelmingly passed last year.   

#DACA, #Immigration:  The DACA negotiations continue. Trump is expected to formally release his plan today, the one that he leaked when he held an impromptu press conference in Chief of Staff Kelly’s office moments before Kelly was going to walk through it on background with the assembled group of reporters.  That peformance was just another way of Trump establishing that he, rather than Kelly, is boss.  On its surface the Trump plan looks like an offer to double the number of DACA recipients who would benefit from permanent status and eventual citizenship in exchange for a high level of wall funding, an outcome that sounds appealing despite the stupid wall component.  However, the Trump plan also contains some fairly onerous limitations on future immigration that go well beyond the DACA concerns.  Democrats and members of the bipartisan group of Senators led by Manchin and Collins view the Trump plan as barely a starting point and are continuing to move forward with their own bill.  Democrats want to focus solely on DACA and some wall funding, leaving tougher immigration decisions for another day.  Rightwing anti-immigration Republicans want to tackle the whole issue, because they know that the Democrats are feeling the DACA pressure and because they know that tackling the whole immigration issue will throw the DACA resolution out the window for now and maybe forever.  House Speaker Ryan just wants the immigration “thing” to die in the Senate.  February 8 is only one week away.            

You're Fired, Almost

Fireworks:  At various times over the past year a number of Democratic lawmakers have expressed concerns that Trump was about to fire Special Counsel Mueller, it turns out that their fears were warranted.  Last night the NY Times reported that in June, enraged over Mueller’s appointment and the Russia investigation, Trump ordered White House Counsel Don McGahn to direct the Justice Department to dismiss Mueller.  Trump cited an old dispute that Mueller may or may not have had over fees at his Virginia golf club, his work at the law firm that at that time also represented Jared Kushner and that he had recently interviewed Mueller the FBI director position vacated by the fired Comey as justification for the dismissal.  McGahn refused, saying that he would quit rather than fire Mueller because he disagreed with Trump’s reasoning and thought that the firing would have a “catastrophic effect” on his presidency.  When asked about this in Davos, Trump responded “Fake news, folks, fake news.  A typical NY Times fake story.”  Ty Cobb, his White House “Russia” lawyer was less direct, he said “we decline to comment out of respect for the Office of the Special Counsel and its process.”  In other words, it’s all true but we’d rather not admit it.  The NY Times story cites four unnamed sources, in all likelihood those sources have already spilled their guts to Mueller.  Last night, one pundit suggested that with the investigation heating up and his interview on the horizon, Trump may be once again thinking about firing Mueller and that McGahn, together with one of Trump’s Russia lawyers, may have leaked the story to the NY Times in an effort to cut Trump’s worst instincts off at the pass. Trump’s toady, Devon Nunes is doing his best to provide Trump with a few new excuses for dumping Mueller.  He’s still running around with his “earth shattering” memo, the one that “proves” that Mueller’s whole investigation is based on illegal warrants. He’s refusing to share the memo with his Senate counterpart, Intelligence Committee Chair Richard Burr, or the Justice Department but is still threatening to release it to the public. For the moment the “missing” FBI lovebird texts about the “secret society” won’t provide much cover for firing Mueller.  The texts have been retrieved from the technology hole they fell into and are likely to reveal more snide comments but little that is genuinely incriminating. Forget about joining that secret society of Trump skewers, it doesn’t exist. As to that upcoming interview with Mueller, Trump’s lawyers continue to walk back his comment that he would be more than willing to sit down with the Special Counsel and his team.  Yesterday, Trump’s lawyer Mike Dowd said that discussions about the interview rest with Trump’s legal team and that he will be making the final decision, not Trump. Fearing what he will say when pressed by Mueller, Trump’s friends, including Roger Stone, and his most ardent supporters, including Rush Limbaugh, are telling just about anyone who will listen that Trump shouldn’t sit for the interview. A subpoena could be in the offing.    

The DACA Negotiations:  Trump’s immigration proposal includes a path for citizenship for 1.8 million young undocumented  immigrants, a number that includes the DACA participants as well as others who would have qualified for DACA but never applied because of fears that revealing their information to the government heightened their risk of deportation.  The proposal also includes a $25 billion trust fund for a border wall, an amount that is ridiculous given budget constraints and the stupidity of building an actual wall, but an amount that could get approved to move the DACA stalemate forward.  The Trump plan has a number of controversial provisions that will be sticking points.  It terminates the ability of US citizens to apply for green cards for parents and siblings, limiting family reunification visas, what anti-immigrant advocates derisively call  “chain migration,” to spouses and minor children.  The plan would end the diversity lottery that provided 50,000 green cards to foreigners from countries with low immigration rates (i.e. the sh-thole countries).  Those slots would be applied to the existing waiting list of 4 million family members of green card holders.  The Graham-Durbin plan that Trump shot down had applied a portion of those visas to people who were losing their temporary protected status, people from places like Haiti, Trump’s not so favorite country. The Senate is expected to view the Trump proposal as a starting point for negotiations.  Immigration hardliners are likely to protest giving a path to citizenship to anyone. Democrats and other DACA supporters just want to resolve the DACA problem, don’t see the need to solve all of the outstanding immigration problems right now given the tight timetable and aren’t supportive of the more restrictive immigration provisions.  Trump is mercurial and could change his mind on everything and anything particularly if he pays close attention to his buddies at Fox News.  The clock is ticking, the February 8 deadline is right around the corner.

Russia, Russia, Russia:  Under pressure from Democratic Senators Whitehouse and Blumenthal, Senator Grassley, the Republican Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, has agreed to release the transcripts of all of his committee’s interviews related to the infamous Trump Tower meeting with the Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya.  This means that we will get to read what Don Jr had to say about the meeting which should be interesting because the Democratic Senators  believe that he wasn’t all that truthful or forthcoming about what he knew and want to make sure that Mueller is up on whatever lies he told.  Grassley had previously refused to release the transcripts because he feared that their release would make it more difficult for him to convince Jared Kushner to show up for an interview.  At this point he’s concluded that as a result of Senator Feinstein’s earlier, unilateral release of the Fusion GPS transcripts,  Kushner is too “spooked” to voluntarily testify before the committee anyway.  While he and the Democrats tussle over whether or not to force Kushner’s appearance with a subpoena, he’s agreed to release the requested transcripts.  Should make for some interesting reading.

Davos Talks:  In an interview with his former “Apprentice” Piers Morgan, Trump sort of apologized for retweeting the hateful anti-Muslim message that originated from the far right hateful British First party by telling Morgan that “if you are telling me they’re horrible, I would certainly apologize if you’d like me to do that.”  He also said “I am often the least racist person anybody is going to meet” which may have been an admission that the rest of the time he is a racist.  Steve Mnuchin has also been fairly busy at Davos.  He’s been busying roiling the currency markets by talking down the US Dollar.  Travel, appliances, and designer stuff just got way more expensive.

Amnesty Don?

Mueller v Trump: Trump is off to Switzerland for a few days to hobnob with the globalist establishment at the Davos World Economic Forum.  Before leaving he held a popup off camera press briefing where he surprised the assembled reporters and his own legal team by saying that he is “looking forward” to speaking with Special Counsel Mueller.  He added “I would love to do it, and I would like to do it as soon as possible.”  He then went on to sort of admit to obstruction of justice by saying that since, as everybody knows, there’s been no collusion he’s been “fighting back” against the investigation because that’s what you do, you fight back and if that’s obstruction so be it. He threw in a dig at Hillary Clinton, saying that he, unlike her, would testify under oath, an ill-informed comment that could come back to haunt him. FBI interviews are typically not conducted under oath though grand jury testimony is.  It’s unlikely that Trump would be expected to take an oath, unless of course he refuses to appear for his interview, leaving Mueller with no other option than subpoenaing him to testify in front of a grand jury.  In any case, as Michael Flynn now knows, lying to the FBI during an interview, oath or not, has bigly consequences. Trump’s lawyers who have been trying to negotiate the terms of any Mueller interview, were taken aback by Trump’s off the cuff remarks.  Ty Cobb played clean up saying Trump was speaking hurriedly and intended only to say that he was willing to meet, “he’ll be guided by the advice of his personal counsel.”  In any case Trump’s promises aren’t worth much, he’s still got plenty of time to change his mind a few times.  In the meantime, Trump’s lawyers might want to fit him with a doggy shock collar, a strong zap may be the only “guidance” that will get him to heed their commands, especially once Mueller starts pushing his buttons.  

Dreamers and the Wall:  As he was running off for his flight, Trump also made a few promises to the Dreamers.  He said that he’s open to a pathway to citizenship for the DACA participants, “we’re going to morph into it, its going to happen over a period of 10 to 12 years…. I think it’s a nice thing to have the incentive after a period of years of being able to become a citizen.”  That promise is contingent on $25 billion of wall funding and an additional $5 billion for other wall embellishments, as well as the end of the visa lottery system and a “negotiated” change to chain migration, hopefully a starting point and not a take it or leave it proposition.  Chief of Staff Kelly, who had planned to go to Davos with the Trump traveling squad, is instead staying home to work Dreamer and immigration issues, a good thing if you believe that Kelly will really negotiate, a bad thing if he turns out to be intractable. The Trump team intends to release their DACA and wall plan on Monday.  Lindsey Graham is thrilled with the progress, Schumer and the Democrats are less enthusiastic, still concerned that their “must haves” won’t be on the table and that Trump will waffle particularly after he sees that Breitbart, the self-appointed representative of the far right was so appalled with his suggestion that those nasty Dreamer illegals could become citizens that they have now nicknamed him “Amnesty Don.”        

The Benghazi Strategy: Though outwardly indicating that he is confident that all’s fine on his Russian front, Trump must be really concerned about what Mueller has on him, his family and his team.  His chief congressional toady, erstwhile head of the House Intelligence Committee Devon Nunes, together with his henchman Trey Gowdy, of Benghazi fame, continue to push for the release of their memo, the one that discredits the Mueller investigation by documenting trumped up FBI and DOJ abuses of the FISA warrant process in an attempt to prove that the whole investigation is based on lies and illegally obtained innuendo.  Their mission is being aided by Fox News, especially Sean Hannity, and a team of Russian bots who’ve made the #releasethememo amplifier go viral. Despite Trump’s support, his Department of Justice is less happy.  Yesterday evening Assistant Attorney General Stephen Boyd, a Republican appointee, issued a DOJ statement warning  that it "would be extraordinarily reckless" for the House intelligence Committee to release the classified memo publicly "without giving the Department and the FBI the opportunity to review the memorandum," and to "advise" on possible harm to national security and ongoing investigations from its public release.  To the extent that the Nunes-Gowdy memo is released, the Adam Schiff led Democratic members of the House Intelligence Committee are prepared to respond with a memo of their own, one that would debunk each of the points included in the Republican screed.  Trump is also calling for an investigation into the missing FBI lovebird text messages so that he can learn more about the fantasy secret society, the one that doesn’t exist but that his supporters claim is led by Mueller, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein,  former Acting Attorney General Sally Yates, Former FBI Director Comey and Trump’s current favorite fall guy, FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe. As to that secret society, a slightly embarrassed Wisconsin Senator Johnson now admits that he really hasn’t seen any proof of its existence.

Russia, Russia, Russia: Yesterday a few more details emerged about Michael Flynn’s first interview with the FBI, the one where he got caught lying about his “sanctions relief” conversations with Russian Ambassador Kislyak.  The Flynn meeting was held in the White House but no one on the White House staff knew it was taking place because Flynn was so confident that the meeting was just a routine conversation among colleagues that he didn’t notify anyone else, didn’t bring along anyone from legal and then didn’t update anyone afterwards.  White House Counsel Don McGahn didn’t learn about the meeting until then Acting Attorney General Sally Yates ran to the White House to alert him that Flynn was blackmail bait. The Yates visit triggered a series of what must have been panicky internal conversations that quickly led to her dismissal and Comey’s eventual firing.  Mueller has informed Trump’s lawyers that this time period and the series of events that led up to all of the firings is one of the things that he wants to question Trump about.  Given that Yates was dismissed after speaking with McGahn and that Trump called Comey to invite him in for the dinner date where he asked for his undying loyalty moments after Yates’ final conversation with McGahn, it’s looking more and more likely that Mueller can prove that Trump knew about Flynn’s lies before he invited Comey to dinner.  That request for loyalty may be the first data point in the obstruction timeline.  Mueller has been filling in all the gaps  and has also been interviewing everyone who could possibly know anything about the campaign, the transition or the messy early days of the Trump presidency.  Yesterday, we learned that the list of officials and ex officials he’s spoken with includes Comey, CIA Head Mike Pompeo, NSA head Mike Rogers and a particularly cooperative Yates.  As Trump will surely learn, Mueller already knows a lot about who said what to whom.  Despite Trump’s promise to testify its fair to assume that his lawyers are still weighing the possibility of just having him plead the Fifth because Trump is Trump and he just may be able to get away with it.   

Election Update:  West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, the most conservative Democrat in the Senate, confirmed that he is going to run for reelection in November, that’s notable because he came close to throwing in the towel over the government shutdown and only decided to stay after his moderate led bipartisan group negotiated an end to the shutdown stalemate.  It also took some cajoling by Minority Leader Schumer and a number of the other red state Democratic Senators including Indiana’s Donnelly and North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp to convince him to stay in the race.  Manchin has warned Schumer “if people like me can’t win from red states you’ll be in the minority the rest of your lives.”  Manchin’s frustration highlights Schumer’s challenge.  Despite hopes for a Democratic wave in 2018, there are far more vulnerable Democratic Senators up for reelection than Republican ones.  Going forward, balancing the demands of his progressive presidential wannabees against the needs of the vulnerable moderates will only get tougher. The White House staff is fearful of allowing Schumer in for anymore one on ones with Trump because they fear his wily ways and his ability to get Trump to agree to anything, let’s hope that the Schumer sauce works as well and has more staying power with his own disparate factions.

When Do We Get a Mulligan?

Russia, Russia, Russia: While the rest of us were focused on immigration and the opening of the Statue of Liberty, Special Counsel Mueller was hard at work on other things like figuring out whether Trump had engaged in obstruction of justice.  The taciturn Mueller doesn’t disclose much if anything to the press but the people he interviews, or at least their lawyers, are more forthcoming so yesterday we learned that Mueller and his team interviewed Attorney General Sessions last week. Sessions was involved in a lot of the activities that concern Mueller.  An early supporter of Trump, he was a senior member of his transition team, his responsibilities included  coordinating foreign relations, he interacted with Russians, he lied about that to Congress and he was involved in the firing of former FBI Director Comey.  Also, though recused from the Russia investigation, Sessions still wields substantial control over FBI activities, and has been using his clout to try to influence FBI Director Chris Wray’s hiring and firing choices.  Following traditional investigatory strategy, Mueller has been working up the food chain so his interview of Sessions, his first with a cabinet member, likely indicates that he will soon talk with Trump, an event that strikes fear into the hearts of Trump’s lawyers who are concerned that he will fall into a perjury trap or two and have been trying to come up with alternative solutions like allowing Trump to respond to questions in writing, a suggestion that is not going to fly with Mueller. Trump and his lawyers may have even more to worry about.  Late last night CNN disclosed that Rick Gates, Paul Manafort’s partner, has added Tom Green, a major White Collar lawyer to his legal team, and that Green has been holding meetings with Mueller, an indication that Gates may be ready to strike a deal. Gates would be a significant get for Mueller, his “turn” would put additional pressure on the recalcitrant Manafort to cooperate, not good news for Trump.  As to immigration legislation, at least for now, Senator Schumer has retracted his offer to fund Trump’s illusory wall in exchange for a resolution for the dreamers. February 8 isn’t that far away, but no solution to the immigration conundrum is in sight.    

The FBI Chronicles: Shortly after he was booted from the FBI, former Director Comey revealed that he had memorialized his conversations with Trump, kept his senior aides up to date on his concerns and left copies of those memos at the FBI.  Since his departure Trump, with the help of Sessions, has been doing his best to discredit Comey and the FBI and to destroy the careers of Comey’s former aides. Yesterday it was reported that after firing Comey, Trump called the next in line Andrew McCabe into his office for a meet and greet.  During that meeting, Trump inappropriately asked McCabe who he had voted for in the election and wasn’t all that happy when the stunned McCabe answered that he hadn’t voted.  Trump was even less happy that McCabe’s wife had received funding from then Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe’s PAC when she ran for a Virginia State Senator seat, he shared his displeasure with McCabe.  Trump did appoint McCabe as the acting FBI Director but only because at that time his options were limited.  Earlier in the week it was disclosed that Sessions has been pressuring new FBI Director Wray to rid himself of all of Comey’s favored aides and though Wray threatened to resign in response to that pressure he has been replacing Comey’s team.  Deputy Director Andrew McCabe hasn’t been fired but plans to depart the FBI in March once his pension is vested,  chief FBI lawyer James Baker has been reassigned and will be replaced by Dana Boente, the former US Attorney who signed off on the infamous travel ban when Sally Yates wouldn’t and, yesterday, Wray replaced Comey’s chief of staff Jim Rybicki with Zachary Harmon, one of his former law partners.  It’s not unusual for a new director to want his own team in place, but given the Trump and Sessions pressure, Wray’s changes raise concern.  Trump and Sessions aren’t the only two giving the FBI trouble. A group of Republicans, led by Representative Devon Nunes, are running around Washington with a “secret” memo detailing alleged FBI abuses of the federal surveillance (FISA) program. Prepared by Nunes’ aides, the memo alleges that FBI agents didn’t disclose that they “inappropriately relied” on the Steele Dossier when applying for a warrant to surveil Trump campaign adviser Carter Page. Conversations with Russians picked up during the Page surveillance were early indicators that the Trump team was playing footsie with the Russians and may have led to an expansion of the investigation into Trump team collusion.  Nunes and the other Republicans who have joined his crazy train are hoping to kill off the Mueller investigation by challenging its original premise.  Nunes’ lunatic fringe now includes Republican Senator Johnson who claims that he’s seen proof that there is a secret society of FBI agents out to get Trump. Even more Republicans are freaking out about some missing text messages between the FBI lovebirds who were reassigned by Mueller after some texts criticizing almost all of the politicians in Washington including Trump surfaced.  The failure to permanently capture all of their text messages is likely attributable to a technology glitch that came about during a service changeover, but since conspiracy theories are so much more fun the Republican set is blaming it on “intentional” FBI mishandling. As to his secret memo, Nunes refuses to release it to the Justice Department or the disreputable FBI, but has released it to likeminded crazies and may have already released it to one or more right wing news services despite the fact that it contains classified information. Ranking Member of the House Intelligence Committee Adam Schiff is even more irate than usual about all this but the White House is on board. Yesterday, Press Secretary Huckabee Sanders said that the White House backs “full transparency” around the memo and  Trump said that he might declassify its contents so that it can be distributed to the public.  Trump can’t kill the FBI so instead, with the help of his favorite toady Nunes,  he is doing his best to discredit it’s actions in the hope that his base will question all of Mueller’s indictments and conclusions.  It’s a strategy that seems to work well for Trump.  He’s already convinced Tony Perkins, the leader of the Christian fundamentalist Family Research Council, to ignore his moral transgressions and that he’s deserving of a Mulligan on life.  Perkins speaks for the lord, or so he says.

Trade Policy:  Yesterday, Canada agreed to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the eleven country trade agreement that the US helped to develop but will not be joining because Trump doesn’t like multi-national agreements. To celebrate the US’s increased isolation Trump and his team are on their way to the Davos World Economic Forum, where they will meet with the “globalist” free trade crowd to advance the Trump America First strategy.  Before heading out Trump announced a series of tariffs on products including domestic washing machines and solar modules and cells used to produce solar energy.  The new tariffs probably won’t do much to increase US production of either products, but will increase costs and, in the case of solar energy, will likely result in the elimination of around 23,000 jobs.  Trump isn’t all that worried about the impact on employment statistics because he is confident that a 1300 increase In coal mining jobs will more than offset the number of jobs lost in the solar arena.  Who are we to question his math, the lord and Tony Perkins are on his side?                

Trust Me?

Open for Business:  The government is open again, at least for now.  A bipartisan group of twenty-two of the more moderate Senators spent the weekend hunkered down in Susan Collin’s office focused on finding a resolution to the impasse that had led to the closing in the first place.  In addition to Collins, the group included Republicans Lindsey Graham and Jeff Flake and Democrats Joe Manchin, Amy Klobuchar, and Chris Coons among others.  They coalesced around an agreement that was essentially identical to the funding resolution that had already been voted down by the Senate with the one change that it expires on February 8, one week earlier than the failed resolution’s end date.  They successfully pressed Senate Majority Leader McConnell to make a very public commitment to bringing DACA legislation to the floor of the Senate by the new February 8 date.  Even though McConnell’s promises typically don’t mean much, he’s failed to deliver on pledges to Collins and Flake that he would immediately address health care and DACA in exchange for their votes on the tax bill, the bipartisan crowd agreed to suspend their better judgement and go with McConnell because his promise, though not perfectly worded, was made on the Senate floor.  More than enough Democrats, together with Republicans Graham and Flake, shifted their votes from no to yes so that the revised funding resolution passed the Senate by a vote of 81 to 18.  Once passed the legislation was tossed to the House for their approval, signed by Trump and the government was reopened.  The eighteen no voters included Paul and Lee, the two Republicans who never vote for funding resolutions, and a crowd of Democratic Senators who have either promised never to vote for any legislation that doesn’t include a DACA resolution, who, like Diane Feinstein, fear primary fights from their left or who are seriously considering a run for president in 2020.  That latter category includes Corey Booker, Kristin Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Chris Murphy, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. Minority Leader Schumer took heat from his progressive branch for freeing his coalition to vote yes, but despite their complaints his options were limited.  When the other side controls the House, Senate and presidency, there is only so much you can do and leaving the government closed for a protracted period of time isn’t  in the Democrats best interests.  Of course, Trump, who had largely stayed on the sidelines over the weekend, possibly locked in a closet so that he couldn’t upend negotiations, took full credit for the “victory.” Going forward, the road will be rocky to say the least. Though it’s likely that McConnell will meet his commitment and that the Senate will take up immigration legislation, the route to Senate passage isn’t guaranteed, the process will be impeded by anti-immigrant Senators Perdue and Cotton.  Getting legislation on to the floor of the House will be tougher, McConnell’s commitment doesn’t carry weight there.  Absent direction from the White House, there are no guarantees that House Speaker Ryan will be willing to jeopardize his own position by enraging his right wing factions.  As to the guy in the White House, following the Senate vote he met with two groups of Senators, the anti-immigrant guys Cotton and Perdue and the centrists Manchin and Jones but he hasn’t spoken with Schumer since last week’s cheeseburger debacle and no one is sure whether he will help or impede any legislation, he probably doesn’t know.  As to Schumer, Sarah Huckabee Sanders blasted his political prowess over the weekend by saying “I know that sometimes members like Senator Schumer need a little help and guidance getting through big policy negotiations.”  She picked the wrong guy to criticize. The man she dissed spent the week playing the long game.  He gave three of his most vulnerable Senators valuable air time that will come in handy during their upcoming reelection campaigns. Although McConnell never took it to a vote, before the shutdown went into effect Missouri’s Claire McCaskill attempted to introduce legislation that would have permitted funding of military salaries during the shutdown, to defuse the argument that she and the Democrats don’t care about the military and Florida’s Bill Nelson and Montana’s Jon Tester each tried to introduce legislation delaying the shutdown altogether for a few days while issues were worked out. Though none of these attempts got past McConnell they did produce great soundbites for upcoming political ads. Since McCaskill’s attempt to help the military didn’t fit his narrative, Trump had no problem ignoring it and spent much of his weekend tweet time attacking Democrats for mistreating the military.  Providing further evidence that he’s just as slimy as Trump, Mike Pence who was off in the Middle East getting lectured by Egypt’s President Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah about Jerusalem, used a speaking opportunity in front of US Troops to also slam Democrats for their “disregard” of the military.  Pence’s speech was particularly unseemly because traditionally leadership doesn’t pull the military into partisan battles.  Pence also managed to defend Trump’s dalliance with and hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels, as far as he’s concerned it never happened.  Apparently, Melania isn’t convinced, she’s cancelled her plans to join Trump at the upcoming Davos Economic Forum.  

People Tidbits: The whisper campaign against Chief of Staff John Kelly has begun.  Trump has started referring to Kelly as a nut job, the adjective  previously reserved for former FBI Director Comey.  Apparently being referred to in the press as the real decision maker in the White House may not be good for your White House longevity.  It’s early in the rumor mill cycle, but worth noting that Bannon, the last guy who was referred to as Trump’s brain, was put into the penalty box for a similar offense.  Though he’s probably not going anywhere right now, the new FBI Director Christopher Wray has already offered up his resignation.  Axios reports that after he was pressured by Attorney General Sessions to clean house at the FBI, and by clean house think get rid of former director Comey’s associates including former Acting Director Andrew McCabe, Wray pushed back at the interference by offering his resignation. After being told by White House Counsel Don McGahn that losing the new FBI Director under such questionable circumstances wasn’t worth the trouble it would cause, Sessions backed off. In addition to his history of questionable conversations with Russians, son in law extraordinaire, Jared Kushner also has a preference for Chinese officials.  The New Yorker reports that Kushner held a series of private meetings with representatives of the Chinese government beginning during the post-election transition period and running into the early months of the administration.  The Chinese viewed Kushner as their go to guy in the administration and may have taken advantage of his secretive style and diplomatic naiveite (or idiocy, depending on who you ask).  Kushner’s propensity to avoid official channels and hold private meetings raised alarms with Intelligence officials who were concerned that he may have inadvertently or intentionally made some inappropriate concessions to the Chinese out of outright ignorance or in exchange for personal benefit in the form of help with his floundering real estate portfolio. Though their presence isn’t necessarily tied to Kushner, the Washington Post reports that the FBI noted that there were an inordinate number of questionable Russian officials and hangers on at Trump’s inauguration.  The attendees included the Russian “adoption” lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya and Rinat Akhmetshin, who was also present at the questionable Trump Tower meeting hosted by Don Jr.  Curiously members of the Russian contingent showed up at the best parties and had some of the best seats at official events, seats typically reserved for big donors or key foreign Ambassadors.  

Gerrymandering Update: Yesterday Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court ruled that the state’s Republican drawn congressional districts were designed in such a partisan matter that they violate the state constitution.  The State Court ordered that all eighteen districts be redrawn in the next few weeks. Republicans are likely to appeal the ruling, but unlike the other redistricting cases that have been stayed pending a ruling from the US Supreme Court, the Pennsylvania case relates to state law so its less likely that the Supreme Court will get involved.  Redrawing of the districts could result in an additional four to six Pennsylvania seats going “blue.”  With Democrats needing twenty-four additional seats to take control of the House away from Republicans, the boost from Pennsylvania could provide the 2018 tipping point.      

The Trump Shutdown

The Backdrop:  The government shut down went into effect this weekend primarily because Trump, the guy who convinced millions of gullible voters that he was a masterful dealmaker, isn’t all that interested in making a deal, or at least is incapable of sticking to any of the deals he makes.   The Republican party line is that the Democrats walked away from the deal of the century, a four week funding resolution that included six years of funding for the Children’s Health Insurance program, the popular program that the Republicans callously kept unfunded, saving it to use as a bargaining chip to get Democrats to support a plan that kicked the DACA problem down the road, possibly into oblivion.  Not wanting to choose between sick children and immigrant kids, Democrats refused to bite, and for some unexplained reason, Republican leadership was shocked to learn that anyone could possibly think that both groups were deserving. When it came time for a vote, all but five of Minority Leader Schumer’s most vulnerable Senators, West Virginia’s Manchin, North Dakota’s Heitkamp, Missouri’s McCaskill, Indiana’s Donnelly and the Alabama newbie Jones voted against the funding resolution.  On the Republican side, with the ailing McCain still out of town and Senators Graham, Flake, Lee, and Paul voting no, Graham and Flake primarily because of the failure to deal with the DACA kids and Lee and Paul because they never vote yes for funding resolutions, Majority Leader McConnell couldn’t even deliver his whole coalition.  Far short of the needed sixty votes, the resolution fell and the government went into shutdown mode.  The hapless Trump, who had planned to spend Saturday night celebrating the first anniversary of his inauguration at a Mar a Lago event with big donors who had paid from $100,000 to $250,000 of their newly gained tax savings to hobnob with him, reluctantly cancelled his plans only after being told that the optics of schmoozing with the caviar set while the government churned to a halt was a step too far even for him.  Instead he sent second son Eric and his wife Lara in his place, particularly funny since earlier in the week Eric had hosted another event at Mar a Lago with a meager $200 cover charge.  With his weekend plans upended, a moping Trump tweeted out increasingly hostile messages about the “Schumer Shutdown” and the evil Democrats claiming that they were abandoning the military and putting the lives of millions of sick kids ahead of hundreds of thousands of dangerous illegal immigrants.  He also provided some unintended comic relief when he cluelessly tweeted his support for the hundreds of thousands of women protesting his very existence on such a “beautiful day” and had his photographer release a picture of him “working hard” at his desk. One of his PACs ran ads blaming Democrats for any and all crimes committed by any undocumented aliens, leaving the distinct impression that the White House would welcome a murder spree or mass attack to prove its point.  The DACA population, the group who won’t even jaywalk for fear of losing working papers, was particularly stunned by the ad equating them with murderers and rapists.  Budget Director Mulvaney who’d helped throw the government into a shutdown in 2013 when he was a member of the House Tea Party had the gall to say it was kind of cool to be the guy who gets to implement this one. Tammy Duckworth, the Democratic Senator from Illinois who lost both her legs serving in Iraq called Trump a five-deferment draft dodger and said that she wouldn’t be lectured about military funding by cadet bone spurs.     

The Absurdity:  Funding CHIP should be a no brainer, the program provides health care coverage for children from financially strapped working families not poor enough to qualify for Medicaid and it’s not just children who suffer when CHIP funding runs out, absent the program hospitals around the country suffer financially since children end up in their facilities, in worse condition and without any mean of payment.  Coming up with a reasonable DACA solution is also popular, would benefit the economy, and to the extent that anyone in the White House cares is the morally sound thing to do.  With bipartisan support in both Houses for both CHIP funding and a DACA resolution, legislation for both would pass if only it could make it to the floor for a vote.  The source of the problem lies in the xenophobic White House, with extreme factions in both the House and the Senate, and with House and Senate leadership. In the House, Speaker Ryan has ceded control to his most anti-immigration extremists by refusing to introduce legislation that won’t pass without Democratic support.  Senate Leader McConnell has refused to introduce immigration reform or anything else without direction from the White House even though he admits they are rudderless.  As to the White House, Trump has proven to be an unreliable negotiator, one who harbors deep seated anti-immigrant feelings that extend to the DACA population that he promised to treat with love.  He proved this on Friday when he triggered the government shutdown after reneging on an agreement that he worked out with Minority Leader Schumer over a cheeseburger fueled working session.  In exchange for a four to five day funding agreement with time to fix DACA, Schumer had offered up more funding for the military and way more wall funding than he should have, Trump agreed only to walk away hours later,  after Stephen Miller and Chief of Staff Kelly gave him an earful and pushed him back into the anti-immigrant fold.  Fooled again and increasingly furious about it, Schumer said that Trump was an unreliable partner and that negotiating with him was like negotiating with Jell-O and that’s just the stuff that he said in front of the cameras.   

Possible Resolution:  After a weekend of nasty attacks, with Republican leaders and surrogates pointing the blame at Democrats, Democrats pointing back and McConnell and Schumer shooting poison tipped darts across the Senate Floor, things calmed down a bit late Sunday after a bipartisan group of Senators hunkered down in Senator Susan Collins’ office in an effort to come up with an solution to get the government running again.  Senator Graham, who has taken to communicating his thoughts to Trump via cable TV, told an informal press gathering that Trump is getting poor advise from his unreliable White House staff, specifically citing Stephen Miller for his extreme anti-immigrant views, whining that he wanted “Tuesday Trump back,” the guy who said he would sign any immigration bill that passed his desk. Glued to his TV, Trump lashed out at Graham’s comments and expressed his undying love for his squirrelly soulmate, Miller.  Late Sunday Majority Leader McConnell stepped to the podium and instead of launching another vitriolic attack against Senator Schumer and the Democrats he said that he would commit to allowing the introduction of DACA solving immigration legislation by February 8 in exchange for a vote on a modified resolution that would fund the government only through that date, a week shorter than the original resolution that had been voted down on Friday, allowing Trump to both deliver his State of the Union address without the distraction of a government shutdown and fly off to the Davos Economic Forum where he will get to hang with the globalist glitterati he previously eschewed.  A planned 1 AM vote on the new funding resolution was put off to noon today to give Schumer time to meet with his Democratic coalition. Unless things change or Trump tweet sabotages the compromise, Schumer is expected to free enough of his Senators to give McConnell the sixty votes he needs for passage although his crowd, especially the progressives among them, won’t be happy with that outcome. Graham and Flake have already signed on, giving McConnell two more Republican votes.  In a perfect world, where everyone could be trusted and the White House and the other members of the anti-immigrant brigade could be expected to suddenly see the light voting to fund the government in exchange for a soon to be worked out DACA resolution would be fine.  However, the Jell-O man and his quivering cohorts have already proven that they can’t be trusted. The vote isn’t a done deal yet, nor is the resolution of the DACA problem.

Other Controversies:  With all eyes on the government shutdown, Stormy, the porn star, and her $130,000 “keep quiet” payoff mostly flew beneath the weekend radar.  Religious fundamentalists were quick to forgive Trump for his sins because that’s what they do when the sinner is on their side of the table,  but Special Counsel Mueller may be less forgiving.  Trump’s Stormy Daniels relationship makes his denial that he ever engaged in any similar activity while in Russia that much more suspect, lending credence to the more salacious aspects of the infamous Steele dossier, and raising more concerns that Trump’s actions with regard to Russia are being influenced by fear that Putin really has a few compromising “pee” tapes.  The Stormy relationship, at least the description that she provided in her recently released old In Touch magazine interview, also could be problematic for Trump on the domestic front and not just with Melania.  His message to Stormy that time spent with him could lead to an Apprentice gig echoes the “Weinstein” modus operandi and also bolsters the accusations of his harassment accusers. The Teflon protecting Trump from the “me too” movement may finally be fraying. 

The Blame Game

Shutdown Shenanigans:  Late yesterday, by a vote of 230 to 197, the House passed another short term funding resolution after members of the right wing Freedom Caucus were convinced to join in with a promise from Speaker Ryan that their concerns would be addressed in any future immigration legislation, a truly frightening thought.  Only six Democrats voted yes, while eleven Republicans voted no.  Republican support for the House resolution, which extends government funding through mid-February and funds the Children’s Health Insurance Program for six years but includes nothing to resolve the DACA problem, was almost upended after Trump sent out an early morning tweet saying that “"CHIP should be part of a long term solution, not a 30 Day, or short term, extension!" The clueless Trump didn’t realize that the plan calls for a six year extension of the children’s health care plan either because he’s so out of the loop or doesn’t understand the details.  Like the mistaken tweet he sent out last week which almost upended the House vote on FISA surveillance legislation, this error left Republican leadership scurrying to get a correction from Trump in order to reassure House Republicans that, despite his stupidity, their fearless leader Trump was on board.  The funding resolution is now in the hands of the Senate where the outcome is far less certain.  As of now Majority Leader McConnell does not have the sixty votes he needs for passage.  On the Republican side, though he supports the resolution, Senator McCain is recuperating in Arizona and won’t be casting a vote, Lindsey Graham is a no over DACA and because he wants more defense spending,  South Dakota’s Mike Rounds is a no over defense spending, and Rand Paul is a no because he generally is a no on anything related to spending.  On the Democratic side only  West Virginia Senator Manchin, one of the most vulnerable red state Democrats, has said that he will vote yes.  A number of other Senators in both parties, including the remaining red state vulnerable Democrats who have grown less fearful of the consequences of voting against Trump, remain up in the air.  Things got pretty testy on the Senate floor last night between Minority Leader Schumer and McConnell when Schumer tried to force a vote to highlight that it wasn’t just Democrats who were against the short term resolution.  He and McConnell threw nasty barbs at each other until finally agreeing to recess for the night.  A number of outcomes are possible, including one that resuscitates DACA.  A small group of Senators and Representatives are working behind the scene on a DACA and immigration solution, to the extent that they agree on a plan, it could get included in this funding resolution or alternatively another very short term, four or five day, resolution could get voted on to give them more time to finalize details and build support.  Alternatively, it’s also possible, in fact quite likely, that no resolution gets passed pushing the government into a shutdown in which case there will be a lot of finger pointing.  Trump will blame everyone, especially the Democrats, even though he triggered the crisis in the first place with his irrational DACA and immigration shenanigans.  The Republicans will blame the Democrats, the Democrats will blame the Republicans and Trump. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi called the situation amateur hour at its worst and then, sticking with the theme of the past week but avoiding any expletives, added it was another bowl of doggy doo with a cherry on top.  She has a point.     

The End of the Honeymoon:  By all accounts things aren’t all that hunky-dory between Trump and Chief of Staff General Kelly.  After the General dissed Trump by saying that his wall position was “uninformed” and “evolving.” Trump took umbrage, tweeting out “The Wall is the Wall, it has never changed or evolved from the first day I conceived of it. Parts will be, of necessity, see through and it was never intended to be built in areas where there is natural protection such as mountains, wastelands or tough rivers or water.....”  With the door open to Kelly criticism, White House staff and Trump BFFs leaked countless stories to their favorite press contacts about Kelly, calling him out for his lack of legislative know-how, for running a too-tight ship and most of all for refusing to give them unfettered access to Trump.  The New York Time’s Maggie Haberman, one of the Trump family’s favorites, reported that Kelly has a temper, storms out of meetings and can be very confrontational.  We haven’t heard this kind of criticism about chaos in the White House or a chief of staff since the old Reince Priebus days.  Yesterday, for what it’s worth, Trump said that Kelly was a fine man and that he liked him very much.  One thing is for certain, Kelly is not a moderating influence when it comes to the subject of immigration primarily because he, like Trump, is a hardliner on immigration.  Minority Leader Schumer blames Kelly for bringing Senator Cotton and Representative Goodlatte, the two most intractable, hardline anti-immigrant Republican legislators, into last week’s “doo doo” meeting and, in a private chat with Trump, told him that Democrats won’t discuss immigrations issues with Trump again in their presence.            

Russia, Russia, Russia:  The National Rifle Association has now been pulled further into the Russia investigation.  A few months ago we learned that Don Jr sat next to Alexander Torshin, a long term NRA member as well as a Deputy Governor of the Russian Central Bank and a Putin crony, during last year’s NRA convention gala. Yesterday, The McClatchy Report revealed that the FBI is investigating the source of the disproportionately high amount of contributions made by the NRA to Trump’s campaign.  The suspicion is that Torshin, who Spanish authorities have accused of money laundering, made outsized contributions to the NRA and that the Russian money was then funneled to the Trump campaign.  Overall, the NRA reported spending $55 million on the 2016 election, with $30 million going to Trump’s coffers, three times the amount that they had contributed to Mitt Romney when he ran against Obama and although $55 million was reported, it’s suspected that the actual number spent by the NRA on the election was as high as $70 million, that funds a lot of pro Second Amendment speeches and ultimately results in far too many AK 47 like weapons showing up in the hands of lunatics in places like Sandy Hook and Las Vegas.  In other investigation news, plans for Steve Bannon to return to the House Intelligence Committee are now on hold and the much awaited testimony of Hope Hicks has also been delayed.  As to gal Friday, communications guru Hicks, it’s not clear if her postponement is due to the need for her to be around to organize the communication strategy for the possible government shutdown or whether it’s just because Trump wants to keep her as silent as possible about everything she’s heard.  Negotiations are ongoing between Trump’s lawyers and Special Counsel Mueller’s team in preparation for the much awaited Trump interview.  Ty Cobb, one of Trump’s lawyers  reports that  Trump is eager to cooperate, he also reports that he has warned Trump to be wary of Mueller springing a “perjury trap” on him.  One foolproof way for Trump to avoid such a trap would be to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth but to do that he’d have to actually speak the truth something Trump isn’t all that good at.  Ty Cobb has reason to worry.

Sloppy Squelching:  Michael Cohen, Trump’s lawyer and porn star fixer, did a pretty good job preventing Stormy Daniels from coming forward with the smarmy details of her affair with Trump days before the 2016 election.  Yesterday the Wall Street Journal reported that the $130,000 check that she received to stay quiet came from a private Delaware LLC named Essential Consultants that Cohen set up using a series of pseudonyms intended to obfuscate the source of the hush money payment.  Unfortunately for us, the tactic worked for a while, getting Trump through the election without a nasty, poorly timed bimbo eruption.  Unfortunately for Cohen, he was a little sloppy, in one case he goofed by filing some paper work under his own name.  In his Fire and Fury book Michael Woolf reported Steve Bannon’s claim that there are hundreds of Stormy Daniels out there.  Could this be the beginning of the deluge?  In the meantime, you can check out Wednesday’s In Touch magazine for more details about what Ms. Stormy had to say about Trump in his tighty whities from the interview that she gave, and apparently many of us missed, in 2011.     

Camel, Lion, or Rhinoceros

The Funding Stalemate:  Concerns that there will be a government shutdown this weekend are rising, fueled in large part by the stalemate over fixing DACA and funding Trump’s promised wall.  In an attempt to allay concerns that Trump is being irrational about his demands, Chief of Staff Kelly visited Capitol Hill where he told some Democratic lawmakers, including members of the Hispanic caucus, that some of the things that Trump promised during the campaign were “uninformed” and the US will never build a wall along its entire Mexico border.  He also said that Trump “is committed to a permanent solution to DACA,” but did not provide clarity on what he really wants in exchange, possibly because Trump doesn’t know what he wants.  For his part during an interview with Reuters, Trump continued to rant about the bipartisan  proposal that Senators Lindsey Graham and Dickie Durbin provided last week, the one that provoked his ignominious expletives by calling it “horrible” and “very weak.”  With the resolution of DACA up in the air, Republican leadership is trying to move forward on a funding resolution that kicks any solution of the DACA problem down the road, heightening anxiety for the Dreamers and frustrating those Democrats who want to see DACA resolved once and for all.  House Speaker Paul Ryan is pushing a short term continuing resolution that would keep the government funded only until February 16.  To attract some Democrats his plan includes a six year extension of the Children’s Health Insurance program that has been left in the lurch and desperately needs money, but to attract fiscally conservative Republicans his plan also delays the implementation of several Obamacare taxes, including the so-called Cadillac tax on certain high end health care plans.  Even with the CHIP sweetener, he still isn’t sure that he has the votes needed to pass a funding resolution because the Mark Meadows led Freedom Caucus might not sign on.  Unlike Senate Majority Leader McConnell, Ryan only has to come up with a simple majority.  Senate rules require that Majority Leader McConnell come up with sixty votes and with John McCain still in Arizona and with a very frustrated Lindsey Graham saying that he won’t vote for a resolution that doesn’t deal with DACA, McConnell will need Democratic support from all of the red state Democrats to get anywhere near enough votes to get any funding resolution passed. It’s not clear that they will all join in.  On the Republican side, it’s not just Lindsey Graham who is causing him trouble.  Louisiana Senator Kennedy, no relation to the Massachusetts Kennedys, wants to know why he should sign on to a plan that further reduces taxes on insurance companies right after they benefitted bigly from the huge tax cut passed at the end of the year.  At this point, uncertainty is the word of the day.  

The Press War: Yesterday, Arizona Senator Jeff Flake spoke out against Trump’s attack on the press saying that “The free press is the despot’s enemy, which makes the free press the guardian of democracy” adding that when “When a figure in power reflexively calls any press that doesn’t suit him fake news, it is that person who should be the figure of suspicion, not the press.”  In a Washington Post op-ed Arizona’s other Senator John McCain pointed out that 2017 was one of the most dangerous years to be a journalist and that whether “Trump knows it or not,” his efforts to mock and criticize the press “are being closely watched by foreign leaders who are already using his words as cover as they silence and shutter one of the key pillars of democracy.” Ignoring or possibly because of the criticism, Trump went ahead and posted his fake news awards on the Republican National Committee website, citing the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and ABC among others as purveyors of unfair news coverage and downright fake news.  Ronna Romney McDaniel, Mitt Romney’s niece, is the current head of the RNC, he must be so proud that a member of his family has become another willing enabler of Trump’s antics and virulent press attacks.  Nowhere on the web posting was there any mention of the more than 2000 lies that Trump has told since taking office.  Also not mentioned were Trump or his lawyer’s denials of the payments made to porn star and sometime Trump girlfriend Stormy Daniels.  Excerpts of an interview that she gave In Touch magazine about her relationship with Trump in 2011, well before she was paid to be quiet, were also released yesterday.      

Russia, Russia, Russia:  Though he intended to adhere to the rules conveyed to him by the White House about what he could and couldn’t answer during his testimony in front of the House Intelligence Committee, Bannon screwed up.  He inadvertently admitted that he'd had conversations with then chief of staff Priebus, then press secretary Spicer and then legal spokesman Mark Corallo about Don Junior's infamous meeting with the Russians in Trump Tower in June 2016.  After his oops moment he clammed up about what else he knew about that key issue, the one that is one of the focal points in the collusion and obstruction investigation, infuriating the members of the committee especially Republican Trey Gowdy, one of those guys who usually lets Trump get away with just about anything, and Democrat Adam Schiff, who lets Trump get away with nothing.  Curiously Bannon is represented by Bill Burck, the same lawyer representing White House Counsel Don McGahn.  During Bannon’s testimony Burck spent a considerable amount of time coordinating with the White House in order to determine what questions Bannon could answer.  It’s not clear whether it was McGahn or another one of Trump’s lawyers who was giving him that advice.  It’s also not clear if Burck will be the lawyer representing Bannon when he speaks with Special Counsel Mueller as he had initially only been retained for Bannon’s appearance in front of Congress.  In any case, Bannon has agreed to cooperate with Mueller so at least for now he will not be required to go in front of the Mueller’s grand jury, instead he will be asked to spill his guts during a more private interview.  Bannon wasn’t the only former campaign leader on the Congressional hot seat this week.  Yesterday, the House Intelligence Committee interviewed both former campaign manager and current Trump surrogate Corey Lewandowski and current deputy chief of staff Rick Dearborn.  Ranking Member Schiff reports that as expected, the frequently bombastic, Trump adoring Lewandowski refused to answer some questions but that Dearborn was forthcoming.  Reverting to their normal Trump fawning position, the Republican members of the Intelligence Committee were satisfied with Lewandowski’s performance, particularly strange in light of their furious response to Bannon’s Trump mandated evasive tactics earlier in the week.  

Other Government News:  Senate Judiciary Chairman Grassley is trying to squeeze in a vote for seventeen of the judicial candidates whose nominations were carried over from last year, including one who  defended North Carolina in its fight against allowing transgender people to use their preferred bathroom facilities by arguing that that there was no sound science proving that “gender discordance wasn’t a delusional state” and another who lied about his efforts helping former Senator Jesse Helms fulfill his lifetime goal of intimidating black voters.  Judicial appointments are for life so if these two knuckleheads make it to the court, and they probably will, we will be dealing with the consequences of their biases for a long time to come.   Two thirds of the National Park Service Advisory Panel, including members appointed by both Democratic and Republican administrations, resigned citing Interior Secretary Zinke’s refusal to acknowledge their existence, respond to their calls and failure to allow them to hold legislatively mandated meetings.  Their early departure leaves the government without a functioning body to designate national historic or natural landmarks, which is probably not much of a concern to Zinke since the Trump administration seems intent on shrinking parks and landmarks whenever possible.  Trump is now citing his score on the Montreal Cognitive Test administered by the White House doctor, particularly that he was able to distinguish between a camel, a lion and a rhinoceros and that he could correctly draw the requested time on a clock, two of the Montreal test’s tougher questions, as proof that he will be able to solve the North Korea crisis.  Sadly, the test did not check to see if Trump understood the ramifications of hitting any big red buttons. 

Borderline Obesity 

Cabinet Deception: If there was any doubt that Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen pledged an oath of loyalty to Trump to secure her job, she dispelled it by joining the long list of Trump enablers willing to lie on his behalf.  Yesterday in a Senate Judiciary hearing that had been scheduled before last week’s sh-thole discourse, Nielsen got drilled about what was said during the memorable sparring session.  She spent an awful lot of time trying to hide behind a flawed memory but tipped her hat when she responded to  Senator “Dickie” Durbin’s questions by first saying that though she’d heard lots of “tough” language she couldn’t remember Trump saying what we all know he said.  Upon further questioning from Durbin, she added that she’d heard Senator Graham use tough language too and that’s when she fell into Durbin’s trap, he pointed out that the tough language she heard Graham utter was Graham throwing Trump’s racists rant back at him.  By the time that Senator Klobuchar got to her, a testy, worn down, Nielsen admitted that it was possible that Trump had uttered the despicable disputed words though she still wouldn’t concede that the population of Norway is substantially white.  For his part Senator Booker, a recent addition to the Judiciary Committee, slammed Nielsen with a passionate speech in which he said that Trump’s words give license to bigotry and hate and that her silence made her complicit. Following Nielsen’s testimony, Senator Durbin said that Trump is not being well served by his staff especially those people at the White House with an irrational view of immigration, by those people he means Stephen Miller and Chief of Staff Kelly.  Senator Graham just called the whole situation a sh-t show adding that he doesn’t know what happened to the Trump who said that he wanted to treat the DACA recipients with love, but he really wants him back.  Graham appears to be coming to the realization that kowtowing to Trump’s demands might get him invited for golf, but it doesn’t get Trump to act cooperatively, especially when it comes to issues near and dear to him like keeping immigrants from places other than Norway as far away as possible. To the extent that she reads the Washington Post, Nielsen might want to take Jennifer Rubin’s observations about her performance to heart.  Rubin, WaPo’s resident Republican albeit a never Trumper, concludes that Nielsen has committed perjury and advises her to consider amending her testimony before she gets into bigly trouble.  While immigration legislation languishes at the hands of the hardliners and xenophobes, the Justice Department is continuing to do its best to kill off what remains of DACA by trying to circumvent the recent ruling by the 9^th Circuit Court of Appeals that temporarily reinstated it.  Though still appealing that ruling, the Department is simultaneously going to the Supreme Court seeking direct review of what Trump and Sessions view as the Appeals Court judge’s inappropriate “liberal” ruling.

Double Trouble: Former strategic adviser and one time Trump soul mate Steve Bannon also had a pretty tough day.  While he was “voluntarily” testifying before the House Intelligence Committee, the NY Times reported that he’d been subpoenaed to testify before Special Counsel Mueller’s Grand Jury making him the first member of Trump’s inner circle to be formally called to testify.  Then after he refused to answer any of the Committee’s questions about his time in the White House or during the post-election transition, limiting his responses to questions about the campaign period, Republican leadership grew so frustrated with Bannon’s White House dictated evasiveness that sometime Chairman Devon Nunes issued a subpoena on the spot, fairly notable since Nunes generally toes the Trump party line.  After consulting with the White House, Bannon’s lawyers advised him that despite the House subpoena he still couldn’t answer questions covering the disputed time periods. It is fair to assume that Bannon knows a few things that the White House would prefer not to see disclosed to the extent that they can prevent it.  The House Intelligence Committee hasn’t given up, they plan to resolve their issues with the White House, though they didn’t say how, and have Bannon back in two days for more grilling. As to silencing Bannon, last night the Daily Beast reported that the White House has no plans to attempt to exercise similar executive privilege with regard to testimony that he gives to Mueller’s Grand Jury, so whatever he knows and whatever gets resolved with Congress, Bannon will be required to come clean soon, very soon.

 

Trump’s Health:  Oddly enough, Trump is the picture of health.  It turns out that if you have “superior genes” you can eat quarter pounders, treat yourself to double portions of dessert, swill diet coke, never exercise, have moderately high cholesterol, be “borderline” obese and live forever.  Curiously Trump, who takes a small dose of cholesterol lowering drugs, a larger dose of hair enhancing Propecia and the occasional Ambien, has grown an inch and weighs only 239 pounds.  The less than believable height and weight figures provide one indication that Trump was given the privilege of editing his results just a little.  Nevertheless he’s now on a diet and has promised to engage in some exercise despite his concern that too much physical exertion uses up the daily battery.  At Trump’s request, Ronny Jackson, the White House physician also performed a cognitive assessment. Dr. Jackson reports that Trump received a 30 out of 30 score on the exam, leading him to conclude that despite all appearances to the contrary, Trump’s acuity is just fine, he doesn’t appear to be suffering from early stages of Alzheimer’s.  He also doesn’t appear to be suffering from those annoying bone spurs that kept him out of the Viet Nam war.  The doctor reported that Trump only needs about four to five hours of sleep a night and that he has the unique ability to wake up care free and happy regardless of how upset he was at the end of the prior day.  For some reason, the doctor seemed to have missed that lack of conscience is a characteristic of a sociopath. 

The Legislative Arena:  Fifty senators, including all forty-nine Democrats plus Senator Susan Collins have signed on to sponsor legislation that would restore net neutrality.  To the extent that they can find another willing Republican to join them, they will be able to force a Senate vote.  The House is unlikely to be as receptive to overriding Trump’s elimination of net neutrality, but still it’s a start.  On another front Republican Senator Rubio of Florida and Democratic Senator Van Hollen of Maryland are introducing the “Defending Elections from Threats by Establishing Redlines Act.”  The intent of the act is to send the message to hostile players and countries such as Russia that if they disrupt our elections in any way there will be consequences and by consequences think immediate financial sanctions that will make those imposed by the Magnitsky Act that Putin hates so much seem like a mere slap on the wrist.  As to funding the government, no one is all that sure that Congress will be able to get their act together in time to meet the Friday night deadline so if you have plans to visit the Smithsonian this weekend you might want to come up with a plan B just in case.  

Other News: In a possible harbinger of things to come in the 2018 midterms, a reliably Republican state senate seat in Wisconsin was won by the Democratic candidate in a special election.  Sensing the way the wind is blowing, Tim Pawlenty, the popular former governor of Minnesota, has decided not to run against Senator Tina Smith, Al Franken’s interim replacement, whose seat is up for election in 2018, because he doesn’t think that he could win.  Though Obamacare isn’t dead, it’s suffering, the number of uninsured Americans has increased by three million people since Trump has taken office.