The Trump Shutdown

The Backdrop:  The government shut down went into effect this weekend primarily because Trump, the guy who convinced millions of gullible voters that he was a masterful dealmaker, isn’t all that interested in making a deal, or at least is incapable of sticking to any of the deals he makes.   The Republican party line is that the Democrats walked away from the deal of the century, a four week funding resolution that included six years of funding for the Children’s Health Insurance program, the popular program that the Republicans callously kept unfunded, saving it to use as a bargaining chip to get Democrats to support a plan that kicked the DACA problem down the road, possibly into oblivion.  Not wanting to choose between sick children and immigrant kids, Democrats refused to bite, and for some unexplained reason, Republican leadership was shocked to learn that anyone could possibly think that both groups were deserving. When it came time for a vote, all but five of Minority Leader Schumer’s most vulnerable Senators, West Virginia’s Manchin, North Dakota’s Heitkamp, Missouri’s McCaskill, Indiana’s Donnelly and the Alabama newbie Jones voted against the funding resolution.  On the Republican side, with the ailing McCain still out of town and Senators Graham, Flake, Lee, and Paul voting no, Graham and Flake primarily because of the failure to deal with the DACA kids and Lee and Paul because they never vote yes for funding resolutions, Majority Leader McConnell couldn’t even deliver his whole coalition.  Far short of the needed sixty votes, the resolution fell and the government went into shutdown mode.  The hapless Trump, who had planned to spend Saturday night celebrating the first anniversary of his inauguration at a Mar a Lago event with big donors who had paid from $100,000 to $250,000 of their newly gained tax savings to hobnob with him, reluctantly cancelled his plans only after being told that the optics of schmoozing with the caviar set while the government churned to a halt was a step too far even for him.  Instead he sent second son Eric and his wife Lara in his place, particularly funny since earlier in the week Eric had hosted another event at Mar a Lago with a meager $200 cover charge.  With his weekend plans upended, a moping Trump tweeted out increasingly hostile messages about the “Schumer Shutdown” and the evil Democrats claiming that they were abandoning the military and putting the lives of millions of sick kids ahead of hundreds of thousands of dangerous illegal immigrants.  He also provided some unintended comic relief when he cluelessly tweeted his support for the hundreds of thousands of women protesting his very existence on such a “beautiful day” and had his photographer release a picture of him “working hard” at his desk. One of his PACs ran ads blaming Democrats for any and all crimes committed by any undocumented aliens, leaving the distinct impression that the White House would welcome a murder spree or mass attack to prove its point.  The DACA population, the group who won’t even jaywalk for fear of losing working papers, was particularly stunned by the ad equating them with murderers and rapists.  Budget Director Mulvaney who’d helped throw the government into a shutdown in 2013 when he was a member of the House Tea Party had the gall to say it was kind of cool to be the guy who gets to implement this one. Tammy Duckworth, the Democratic Senator from Illinois who lost both her legs serving in Iraq called Trump a five-deferment draft dodger and said that she wouldn’t be lectured about military funding by cadet bone spurs.     

The Absurdity:  Funding CHIP should be a no brainer, the program provides health care coverage for children from financially strapped working families not poor enough to qualify for Medicaid and it’s not just children who suffer when CHIP funding runs out, absent the program hospitals around the country suffer financially since children end up in their facilities, in worse condition and without any mean of payment.  Coming up with a reasonable DACA solution is also popular, would benefit the economy, and to the extent that anyone in the White House cares is the morally sound thing to do.  With bipartisan support in both Houses for both CHIP funding and a DACA resolution, legislation for both would pass if only it could make it to the floor for a vote.  The source of the problem lies in the xenophobic White House, with extreme factions in both the House and the Senate, and with House and Senate leadership. In the House, Speaker Ryan has ceded control to his most anti-immigration extremists by refusing to introduce legislation that won’t pass without Democratic support.  Senate Leader McConnell has refused to introduce immigration reform or anything else without direction from the White House even though he admits they are rudderless.  As to the White House, Trump has proven to be an unreliable negotiator, one who harbors deep seated anti-immigrant feelings that extend to the DACA population that he promised to treat with love.  He proved this on Friday when he triggered the government shutdown after reneging on an agreement that he worked out with Minority Leader Schumer over a cheeseburger fueled working session.  In exchange for a four to five day funding agreement with time to fix DACA, Schumer had offered up more funding for the military and way more wall funding than he should have, Trump agreed only to walk away hours later,  after Stephen Miller and Chief of Staff Kelly gave him an earful and pushed him back into the anti-immigrant fold.  Fooled again and increasingly furious about it, Schumer said that Trump was an unreliable partner and that negotiating with him was like negotiating with Jell-O and that’s just the stuff that he said in front of the cameras.   

Possible Resolution:  After a weekend of nasty attacks, with Republican leaders and surrogates pointing the blame at Democrats, Democrats pointing back and McConnell and Schumer shooting poison tipped darts across the Senate Floor, things calmed down a bit late Sunday after a bipartisan group of Senators hunkered down in Senator Susan Collins’ office in an effort to come up with an solution to get the government running again.  Senator Graham, who has taken to communicating his thoughts to Trump via cable TV, told an informal press gathering that Trump is getting poor advise from his unreliable White House staff, specifically citing Stephen Miller for his extreme anti-immigrant views, whining that he wanted “Tuesday Trump back,” the guy who said he would sign any immigration bill that passed his desk. Glued to his TV, Trump lashed out at Graham’s comments and expressed his undying love for his squirrelly soulmate, Miller.  Late Sunday Majority Leader McConnell stepped to the podium and instead of launching another vitriolic attack against Senator Schumer and the Democrats he said that he would commit to allowing the introduction of DACA solving immigration legislation by February 8 in exchange for a vote on a modified resolution that would fund the government only through that date, a week shorter than the original resolution that had been voted down on Friday, allowing Trump to both deliver his State of the Union address without the distraction of a government shutdown and fly off to the Davos Economic Forum where he will get to hang with the globalist glitterati he previously eschewed.  A planned 1 AM vote on the new funding resolution was put off to noon today to give Schumer time to meet with his Democratic coalition. Unless things change or Trump tweet sabotages the compromise, Schumer is expected to free enough of his Senators to give McConnell the sixty votes he needs for passage although his crowd, especially the progressives among them, won’t be happy with that outcome. Graham and Flake have already signed on, giving McConnell two more Republican votes.  In a perfect world, where everyone could be trusted and the White House and the other members of the anti-immigrant brigade could be expected to suddenly see the light voting to fund the government in exchange for a soon to be worked out DACA resolution would be fine.  However, the Jell-O man and his quivering cohorts have already proven that they can’t be trusted. The vote isn’t a done deal yet, nor is the resolution of the DACA problem.

Other Controversies:  With all eyes on the government shutdown, Stormy, the porn star, and her $130,000 “keep quiet” payoff mostly flew beneath the weekend radar.  Religious fundamentalists were quick to forgive Trump for his sins because that’s what they do when the sinner is on their side of the table,  but Special Counsel Mueller may be less forgiving.  Trump’s Stormy Daniels relationship makes his denial that he ever engaged in any similar activity while in Russia that much more suspect, lending credence to the more salacious aspects of the infamous Steele dossier, and raising more concerns that Trump’s actions with regard to Russia are being influenced by fear that Putin really has a few compromising “pee” tapes.  The Stormy relationship, at least the description that she provided in her recently released old In Touch magazine interview, also could be problematic for Trump on the domestic front and not just with Melania.  His message to Stormy that time spent with him could lead to an Apprentice gig echoes the “Weinstein” modus operandi and also bolsters the accusations of his harassment accusers. The Teflon protecting Trump from the “me too” movement may finally be fraying.