Trust Me?

Open for Business:  The government is open again, at least for now.  A bipartisan group of twenty-two of the more moderate Senators spent the weekend hunkered down in Susan Collin’s office focused on finding a resolution to the impasse that had led to the closing in the first place.  In addition to Collins, the group included Republicans Lindsey Graham and Jeff Flake and Democrats Joe Manchin, Amy Klobuchar, and Chris Coons among others.  They coalesced around an agreement that was essentially identical to the funding resolution that had already been voted down by the Senate with the one change that it expires on February 8, one week earlier than the failed resolution’s end date.  They successfully pressed Senate Majority Leader McConnell to make a very public commitment to bringing DACA legislation to the floor of the Senate by the new February 8 date.  Even though McConnell’s promises typically don’t mean much, he’s failed to deliver on pledges to Collins and Flake that he would immediately address health care and DACA in exchange for their votes on the tax bill, the bipartisan crowd agreed to suspend their better judgement and go with McConnell because his promise, though not perfectly worded, was made on the Senate floor.  More than enough Democrats, together with Republicans Graham and Flake, shifted their votes from no to yes so that the revised funding resolution passed the Senate by a vote of 81 to 18.  Once passed the legislation was tossed to the House for their approval, signed by Trump and the government was reopened.  The eighteen no voters included Paul and Lee, the two Republicans who never vote for funding resolutions, and a crowd of Democratic Senators who have either promised never to vote for any legislation that doesn’t include a DACA resolution, who, like Diane Feinstein, fear primary fights from their left or who are seriously considering a run for president in 2020.  That latter category includes Corey Booker, Kristin Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Chris Murphy, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. Minority Leader Schumer took heat from his progressive branch for freeing his coalition to vote yes, but despite their complaints his options were limited.  When the other side controls the House, Senate and presidency, there is only so much you can do and leaving the government closed for a protracted period of time isn’t  in the Democrats best interests.  Of course, Trump, who had largely stayed on the sidelines over the weekend, possibly locked in a closet so that he couldn’t upend negotiations, took full credit for the “victory.” Going forward, the road will be rocky to say the least. Though it’s likely that McConnell will meet his commitment and that the Senate will take up immigration legislation, the route to Senate passage isn’t guaranteed, the process will be impeded by anti-immigrant Senators Perdue and Cotton.  Getting legislation on to the floor of the House will be tougher, McConnell’s commitment doesn’t carry weight there.  Absent direction from the White House, there are no guarantees that House Speaker Ryan will be willing to jeopardize his own position by enraging his right wing factions.  As to the guy in the White House, following the Senate vote he met with two groups of Senators, the anti-immigrant guys Cotton and Perdue and the centrists Manchin and Jones but he hasn’t spoken with Schumer since last week’s cheeseburger debacle and no one is sure whether he will help or impede any legislation, he probably doesn’t know.  As to Schumer, Sarah Huckabee Sanders blasted his political prowess over the weekend by saying “I know that sometimes members like Senator Schumer need a little help and guidance getting through big policy negotiations.”  She picked the wrong guy to criticize. The man she dissed spent the week playing the long game.  He gave three of his most vulnerable Senators valuable air time that will come in handy during their upcoming reelection campaigns. Although McConnell never took it to a vote, before the shutdown went into effect Missouri’s Claire McCaskill attempted to introduce legislation that would have permitted funding of military salaries during the shutdown, to defuse the argument that she and the Democrats don’t care about the military and Florida’s Bill Nelson and Montana’s Jon Tester each tried to introduce legislation delaying the shutdown altogether for a few days while issues were worked out. Though none of these attempts got past McConnell they did produce great soundbites for upcoming political ads. Since McCaskill’s attempt to help the military didn’t fit his narrative, Trump had no problem ignoring it and spent much of his weekend tweet time attacking Democrats for mistreating the military.  Providing further evidence that he’s just as slimy as Trump, Mike Pence who was off in the Middle East getting lectured by Egypt’s President Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah about Jerusalem, used a speaking opportunity in front of US Troops to also slam Democrats for their “disregard” of the military.  Pence’s speech was particularly unseemly because traditionally leadership doesn’t pull the military into partisan battles.  Pence also managed to defend Trump’s dalliance with and hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels, as far as he’s concerned it never happened.  Apparently, Melania isn’t convinced, she’s cancelled her plans to join Trump at the upcoming Davos Economic Forum.  

People Tidbits: The whisper campaign against Chief of Staff John Kelly has begun.  Trump has started referring to Kelly as a nut job, the adjective  previously reserved for former FBI Director Comey.  Apparently being referred to in the press as the real decision maker in the White House may not be good for your White House longevity.  It’s early in the rumor mill cycle, but worth noting that Bannon, the last guy who was referred to as Trump’s brain, was put into the penalty box for a similar offense.  Though he’s probably not going anywhere right now, the new FBI Director Christopher Wray has already offered up his resignation.  Axios reports that after he was pressured by Attorney General Sessions to clean house at the FBI, and by clean house think get rid of former director Comey’s associates including former Acting Director Andrew McCabe, Wray pushed back at the interference by offering his resignation. After being told by White House Counsel Don McGahn that losing the new FBI Director under such questionable circumstances wasn’t worth the trouble it would cause, Sessions backed off. In addition to his history of questionable conversations with Russians, son in law extraordinaire, Jared Kushner also has a preference for Chinese officials.  The New Yorker reports that Kushner held a series of private meetings with representatives of the Chinese government beginning during the post-election transition period and running into the early months of the administration.  The Chinese viewed Kushner as their go to guy in the administration and may have taken advantage of his secretive style and diplomatic naiveite (or idiocy, depending on who you ask).  Kushner’s propensity to avoid official channels and hold private meetings raised alarms with Intelligence officials who were concerned that he may have inadvertently or intentionally made some inappropriate concessions to the Chinese out of outright ignorance or in exchange for personal benefit in the form of help with his floundering real estate portfolio. Though their presence isn’t necessarily tied to Kushner, the Washington Post reports that the FBI noted that there were an inordinate number of questionable Russian officials and hangers on at Trump’s inauguration.  The attendees included the Russian “adoption” lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya and Rinat Akhmetshin, who was also present at the questionable Trump Tower meeting hosted by Don Jr.  Curiously members of the Russian contingent showed up at the best parties and had some of the best seats at official events, seats typically reserved for big donors or key foreign Ambassadors.  

Gerrymandering Update: Yesterday Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court ruled that the state’s Republican drawn congressional districts were designed in such a partisan matter that they violate the state constitution.  The State Court ordered that all eighteen districts be redrawn in the next few weeks. Republicans are likely to appeal the ruling, but unlike the other redistricting cases that have been stayed pending a ruling from the US Supreme Court, the Pennsylvania case relates to state law so its less likely that the Supreme Court will get involved.  Redrawing of the districts could result in an additional four to six Pennsylvania seats going “blue.”  With Democrats needing twenty-four additional seats to take control of the House away from Republicans, the boost from Pennsylvania could provide the 2018 tipping point.