Relics Next

Fallout:  Once upon a time Trump pulled the US out of the multi-lateral JCPOA nuclear agreement with Iran, arguing that  leaving the “flawed” agreement, and to be fair it was far from perfect, and exerting maximum pressure in the form of extreme sanctions would push the Iranians to abandon their nuclear ambitions while also encouraging the Iranian populace to unite, rise up and overthrow their government.  Well, that strategy has worked out really well.  Over the weekend, the Iranian people, who as recently as last month had been protesting in the streets over their government’s decision to raise gas prices, have now united, in their hatred of the US because as frustrated as they are with their own government’s repression and their sinking economy, and as much as many of them weren’t fans of the now departed General Soleimani’s vicious ways, they don’t view our approach as all that admirable.  And our Iraqi allies, the people in the country that we tore apart during our hunt for those non-existent weapons of mass destruction, they don’t seem all that impressed either.  The fractious Iraqi population, a combustible mix of Shias, Sunnis and Kurds, want us out which on the face of it wouldn’t be so bad, since we’ve kind of overstayed our welcome except that the last time we withdrew precipitously we ended up with the ISIS caliphate.  Did I mention that the Iranians announced this weekend that they are tearing up what was left of the JCPOA, so that they can move forward with their nuclear plans?  And, though Trump is now sending more troops to the Middle East, the fight against ISIS, something that we actually coordinated with Iran, is now on the backburner so it’s fair to assume that ISIS will be gaining strength again soon.

The Path to Crazy:  According to the NY Times, Trump shocked his Generals when he opted to “take out” General Soleimani.  Though they had presented him with a range of options that included the Soleimani drone strike they had expected him to choose a less drastic alternative.  Apparently the Generals  didn’t understand how incensed Trump was by the optics of last week’s attack on the US Embassy in Bagdad, which was itself a response to our response to Iran’s killing of an American contractor, which was a response to Trump’s

sanctions, and so on and so on.  Nor did the Generals fully appreciate that Trump’s most hawkish advisors, Secretary of State Pompeo and Vice President Pence, would be all in on the Soleimani choice.  Notably, although Trump gave Senators Lindsey Graham and Intel Chairman Richard Burr a heads up before the Soleimani drone strike and told a few golfing buddies at Mar a Lago that something was about to happen, he didn’t inform anyone in Democratic leadership because those untrustworthy Democrats “leak.” Apparently he didn’t tell our European allies either, a bit of a problem for them, but then again who needs allies anyway?  The Saudis, by the way, have a delegation coming to Washington purportedly to “urge calm.”  

The State of Play: As to Pompeo, he played designated spokesperson this weekend, appearing on all of the Sunday morning talk shows to defend the decision to kill Soleimani, insisting that the evil General was about to launch one or more devastating strikes against American targets.  When asked to name one or if those strikes were really imminent, Pompeo hedged and hawed, kind of an admission that there was nothing all that dire on the immediate horizon which isn’t to say that Soleimani and the Iranians didn’t and don’t have nefarious plans, they always do, but the decision to drone strike Soleimani probably had more to do with Trump’s whims and perhaps even his desire to distract from the impeachment process than anything that was about to happen.  Then when asked about Trump’s early Sunday morning tweet, the one where #Impotus said that if the Iranians retaliated for the killing of Soleimani, and they most certainly will sooner rather than later, he was ready to go after 52 Iranian targets, one for every one of the Americans held hostage during the 1979 takeover of the Tehran embassy, and that some of those targets would be cultural sites, a violation of US and international law, Pompeo mumbled that only lawful sites would be targeted.  Of course that “clarification” didn’t age well, last night, on his flight back to Washington, Trump repeated that he was serious, that legal or not, he would go after cultural sites because if Iranians “kill” and “torture,” we’re allowed to destroy archeological ruins and anyway, the Taliban destroyed those Buddhist statues and got away with it.  For their part, Iranian leadership said that they will only go after US officials and military targets, rather than civilians, not that they can be trusted either.  And of course, cyber warfare, which they are good at remains an option and they will take no responsibility for the actions of their surrogates and they have many and targeting Tel Aviv remains on the table.  Trump also reacted to Iraq’s threats to kick us out of their country, saying that we’ve spent a lot of money on our Iraqi bases so he wouldn’t look kindly on being forced out and would respond with some of those extreme sanctions, the ones that worked so well with Iran.  

Et Cetera: With war talk dominating, impeachment is getting B-side treatment but it is still looming. Speaker Pelosi continues to sit on the Articles.  Lindsey Graham, who doesn’t run the Senate, says that he is ready to change the Senate rules so that he can move ahead with a sham trial with or without Nancy’s Articles.  Mitch McConnell who does run the Senate is still refusing to agree to any witnesses, saying that the Clinton precedent where the calling of witnesses was voted on after the cases for and against Clinton were presented to the Senate “jury” should prevail.  On its face that sounds fair except little about the Trump case is similar to the Clinton case which was investigated for years by an empowered special counsel as opposed to a House Committee that hasn’t been able to get its subpoenas answered and anyway, nothing McConnell does is ever fair.  The Democratic candidates have all criticized the Soleimani killing to varying degrees but most Republicans, with the exception of Senator Rand Paul who is always against war mongering and Senator Susan Collins who has expressed some of her patented “disappointment”  have remained silent.  And though everyone is talking about Bernie Sanders’ staying power and huge pile of cash, gaffe prone former VP Joe Biden has picked up a few swing state endorsements from such Congresspeople as Pennsylvania’s Conor Lamb and Chrissy Houlahan and Virginia’s Elaine Luria.  The Iowa Caucuses take place on February 3.