Snow Squalls

Iran:  Yesterday it was 68 degrees and sunny in Washington DC so Trump’s communications team tweeted out a picture of the White House surrounded by flakes of snow; the picture was labeled first snow of the year.  Continuing with the snow job theme, the White House sent Defense Secretary Esper and national security advisor O’Brien out on the Sunday talk show circuit to try to explain Trump’s Friday night assertion to Fox’s Laura Ingraham that he had Iranian General Soleimani killed because the evil general was planning to attack four US embassies, or at the very least because he thought that Soleimani probably, maybe was going to target four embassies.  Neither O’Brien nor Esper would or could provide any more details about that, largely because there were no details to provide.  Esper pretty much acknowledged that when he said Trump “believed it probably could have been possible,” adding that Trump never cited any intelligence, he only said it was a belief, one that he, Esper, shared too because that’s what good Trump acolytes say and do in this groupthink administration. Both Esper and O’Brien insisted that the intelligence they had was “exquisite, ” whatever that means.  They also said that Trump was advised by one of his most senior intelligence experts that not killing Soleimani was more dangerous than leaving him alive.  While revealing that the plans to takeout Soleimani had been kicked around for some time, the NY Times reported that the intelligence person who expressed that view was CIA Head Gina Haspel; apparently if things go badly, she’ll be Trump’s designated scapegoat.  Turning back to the  Ingraham interview. Trump defended his decision not to talk to the Gang of Eight before the Soleimani assassination, saying why would he ever tell that crooked politician Adam Schiff, who as Chair of the House Intelligence Committee is a member of the gang, anything. A number of other Senators, including Republican Mike Lee reported that the “four embassy explanation” was new to them, that no one brought it up during their very inadequate briefing, the one where only eight senators got to ask questions before the Trump team announced that they had to leave.  As to Iran, though Trump couldn’t have anticipated it, as a result of the accidental downing of the Ukrainian passenger plane, he won the weekend. On Saturday Iran’s Revolutionary Guard acknowledged its responsibility for the shooting down of the plane, undermining their earlier assertion that the crash had been the result of engine failure. Iran’s civilians who had earlier taken to the streets to protest the US killing of Soleimani quickly changed the target of their protests, calling for the resignation of the Ayatollah, blaming him for the crash, the initial denial and the failure to close airports to civilian traffic during the time period surrounding the missile attack of the two US bases.  Trump responded with a Farsi language tweet praising the “brave, long-suffering people of Iran” and telling those demonstrating against the government that he was “inspired by your courage.” An Iranian government spokesman tweeted back “Hands and tongues smeared with threatening, sanctioning and terrorizing the Iranian nation, are not entitled to dishonor the ancient Persian language” while the government starting shooting at protesters.  So basically, not the best week to visit Tehran.  In other news, Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced new harsh sanctions against Iran and it was reported that Trump plans to extend his travel ban to include additional countries, most of which will be countries with large Muslim populations, because it’s an election year and that’s the kind of thing that will go over well with his base.  

Impeach, Impeach, Impeach:  On Friday Speaker Pelosi announced her plans to start the process of sending the Articles of Impeachment over to the Senate.  That process will involve the approval of the House Managers, the team who will present the case for impeachment to the Mitch McConnell controlled Senate.  The Senate will have some procedural things to do too. They’ll have to take an oath to be fair, one that McConnell, who has continued to coordinate with the White House, will immediately violate.  Chief Justice Roberts, who will preside over the hearing, will be sworn in too and then the rules of engagement will be “debated” and voted on.  Those rules are expected to defer any votes on the calling of witnesses until after the cases for and against removing Trump are presented.  Trump’s case is likely to be presented by a team headed up by White House Counsel Pat Cipollone though others such as Alan Dershowitz, the infamous lawyer who is also involved in the Jeffrey Epstein mess, has also been mentioned as a possible team member though it appears that Rudy Giuliani has been ruled out.  As to witnesses, although Senator Susan Collins claims that she is having discussions with a small group of Republicans to make the calling of witnesses a reality, it’s not clear that those discussions are really taking place, and in any case, during the same interview where he told Laura Ingraham more about the justification for taking out Soleimani than he told any member of Congress not named Lindsey Graham, Trump said that he would block former security advisor John Bolton, Mick Mulvaney, or anyone else who he ever spoke with from testifying by declaring executive privilege because it’s his job to protect the office of the presidency for future presidents, as if he cares about future presidents, or future presidents not named Don Jr or Ivanka, two names that some of his avid fans keep bandying around for 2024 and beyond.  It’s expected that the trial won’t begin until next week and that it will take two weeks to complete unless McConnell figures out away to avoid it altogether.  Over the weekend Speaker Pelosi made it clear that any effort to block the trial would be viewed as a cover-up, she also responded to Trump’s assertions that the whole impeachment thing has been unfair to him because he’s really perfect by saying that Trump will be “impeached for life” and that no gamesmanship on his or McConnell’s part will change that.       

Democrats:  Bernie Sanders who lost the Iowa caucuses by a hair to Hillary Clinton in 2016 is now polling at the top of the leader board except that this time around there are far more candidates and unlike last time he does not have the support of 49% of the Iowa base.  The most recent polls show Sanders with 20%, Warren with 17%, Buttigieg at 16% and Biden at 15% with the rest spread out among the other candidates and the many undecideds.  Although things don’t look great for Biden in very white Iowa, he is far and away the preferred candidate of African Americans.  According to a poll completed by the Washington Post and IPSOS, among black Democrats, Biden stands at 48 percent. Sanders runs second at 20 percent. Warren gets 9 percent and Buttigieg 2 percent. Biden has slightly more support than Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, Booker, Yang and Steyer combined.  So basically regardless of what happens in Iowa, the Democrats are far from selecting their candidate.  Whoever is finally chosen, he or she will have Mike Bloomberg’s support.  He’s announced that whether or not he succeeds at winning the candidacy he will support the party’s candidate and by support he means that he will continue paying his 500 member campaign staff through the election dedicating their services to whomever the Democratic base selects as its candidate even if that candidate is from the progressive wing of the party.  All in he has pledged to spend $1 billion of his fortune to run Trump out of office.