Instability and Chaos

Nuclear Aspirations:  It’s time to hide the football, and by football think nuclear not pigskin.  Trump, who is crazed by “disrespectful” football players also has an unhealthy obsession with nukes.  During the campaign, he asked why have nukes if you aren’t going to use them and also said the he wanted to be “unpredictable” leaving open the idea of using them in Europe if necessary; though it’s not clear who in Europe he wants to target, we now know that he’s considering someone in North Korea.   NBC reports that during a summer meeting in which his national security advisors briefed him about worldwide forces and operations and the US nuclear arsenal, he grew concerned when he was shown a graphic that charted the decline in the number of nuclear weapons since the 1960s.  Unaware that the decline was a good thing, Trump expressed an interest in increasing the US stockpile back to those Cold War levels, a tenfold increase above current levels.  He had a hard time understanding that such an increase would be prohibitively expensive, would violate applicable treaties, would feed nuclear proliferation and would do little to strengthen our already frighteningly robust nuclear position.  Secretary of State Tillerson left that meeting so exasperated that he was overheard calling Trump an F-ing moron, which we know because someone present at the meeting leaked his exclamation to the press last week, weakening Tillerson’s already shaky position. In all likelihood the leaker is one or more of the meeting attendees no longer at the White House, either Steve Bannon, Sean Spicer or Reince Priebus.  My money’s on Bannon, who seems to be doing his best to disrupt and unnerve the increasingly unhinged Trump.  Infuriated by the NBC report that he wants more really bigly nukes, Trump tweet slammed “With all of the Fake News coming out of NBC and the Networks, at what point is it appropriate to challenge their License? Bad for country!”  Conservative commentator Bill Kristol tweeted back “this is what dictators like Putin do:  Use administrative procedures to close down news organizations that challenge them” and Republican Senator Sasse, a long term Trump critic, asked “are you tonight recounting of the oath you took on January 20, to preserve, protect and defend the First Amendment.”  For now Saturday Night Live and NBC are safe, there is no indication that the FCC has any plans to shut down NBC, but Trump’s suggestion remains well beyond disturbing.  Get ready for round the clock FOX News and nothing else.

Mental Instability: White House staff and a number of Trump’s friends and advisors are growing increasingly concerned about his stability.  Trump’s close long-time friend and informal advisor billionaire Thomas Barrack told the Washington Post that he has been “shocked and stunned” by some of Trump’s “rhetoric and inflammatory tweets.”  Some have suggested that Chief of Staff Kelly and Defense Secretary Mattis would tackle Trump before they let him near the nuclear “football.” Mattis may want to eat his Wheaties and practice his wrestling moves, because despite Trump’s claims that Kelly will remain chief of staff forever, rumors persist that Kelly and Trump aren’t getting along and that Kelly is close to reaching a breaking point and may be planning an early exit. Yesterday, Trump nominated Kirstjen Nielsen, Kelly’s Chief of Staff to fill the Secretary of Homeland Security position that’s been empty ever since Kelly moved to the White House, there have been some suggestions that Kelly pushed for her promotion to make sure that she is set in a good position in the event that he decides to make an early departure.  If Steve Bannon is right, Kelly might not be needed much longer, Bannon told Vanity Fair that he thinks there is only a 30% chance that Trump finishes out his term.  Apparently, Bannon, who once explained to Trump how the 25^th Amendment works, thinks that Trump has grown so unstable that he could get booted for mental incompetence even before the investigation into Russian collusion and obstruction of justice is completed. Bannon probably made that allegation to tweak Trump but for once, wouldn’t it be nice if Bannon’s prediction was right?  Trump might be happy if he was booted, he’s depressed that his endorsement wasn’t enough to propel Luther Strange, the candidate he supported in Alabama, to victory and he’s told his long term aide Keith Schiller, who recently left Washington, that he hates everyone in the White House.  Two words for Trump, leave now!

No More Agreements:  Because one impending nuclear conflict isn’t enough, against the recommendations of his advisors, Trump has reportedly made his final decision to decertify the Iran nuclear deal, and unless he radically changes his tune, will make that announcement before week end, probably late Friday, his usual time for dumping bad news.  Trump, who has been hinting at this decision all week, had his National Security Advisor HR McMaster brief Congress that they should expect that he will decertify but then, of course, the White House called that more “fake news” and denied that Trump had told him to do so.  Fake news or not, last night Trump told his good buddy Fox TV’s Sean Hannity that “Obama’s” Iran agreement was the worst deal ever made.  Despite Trump’s comments, Eliot Engel, the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s top Democrat and a critic of the original deal, criticized Trump’s decision saying he is entering dangerous “unchartered territory,” he added “I think that maybe it’ll make the president feel good….It might make me feel good.  But it’s not the right thing to do.” Republican Committee Chair Ed Royce also wants the US to stick with the agreement, he said “as flawed as the deal is, I believe we must now enforce the hell out of it.” Assuming Trump, who likes to remind everyone, that the decision is his to make and he is his best counsel, sticks with his decision to decertify, Congress will have 60 days to decide whether to break the agreement by re-imposing the sanctions that were lifted in exchange for Iran entering into the multilateral agreement.  The North American Free Trade Deal, another one of the “worst deals every made,” is also on the rocks.  Over the chorus of protest of American businesses, farmers, retailers and governors, Trump is pushing for significant changes that he knows Mexico and Canada view as non-starters.  Yesterday he told Canada’s Prime Minister Trudeau that the US might dropout.  Having promised his shrinking base that he would pull from NAFTA, Trump seems committed to do so.

The Cyber Wars:  Over the summer, Homeland Security ordered all government agencies and departments to stop using products from Kaspersky Labs, a Russian based cyber security firm with a commonly used anti-virus tool.  It turns out that Homeland Security acted after learning from Israeli intelligence officials who were spying on and tracking Russian hackers that the Russians were using the Kaspersky anti-virus program as a channel into computers.  After an NSA consultant foolishly put some confidential info on his home computer, hackers used that computer’s Kaspersky software as a back door into his computer, managing to steal highly classified materials on US cyber defense and capabilities.  Also, on the Russian front the House Intelligence Committee is now investigating Cambridge Analytica, a firm backed by Steve Bannon and the right wing billionaire Mercer family.  They are looking for any connections between Cambridge’s “psychographic” analysis of voter behavior and Kremlin-orchestrated propaganda efforts.  Those of us who weren’t lucky enough to see pictures of Hillary hugging Muslim terrorists or notices of upcoming marches against anything divisive during the 2016 campaign, will get a chance to see them soon.  The House Intelligence Committee plans to publicly release thousands of the politically divisive Facebook ads purchased by Russia.

    

Not So Easy A:  Offended by critics who question the A plus grade that he awarded himself for his Puerto Rico recovery efforts, Trump  had his communications team prepare a nine minute video presenting a “narrow, positive view” of relief efforts. The video provides highlights of Trump’s visit and the efforts of FEMA and other Federal officials but downplays the efforts of locals and fails to mention that Puerto Rico’s death toll is now up to 45 and rising or that 89% of the island is still without electricity, 47% have no phone service, and only 63% have access to clean drinking water.  Job well done?