Just Say No

Smoke and Mirrors:  After months of dilly dallying Trump finally declared the Opioid addiction crisis a “public health” emergency rather than a “national” emergency.  His choice of words was important, national emergencies get immediate access to federal funds, public health emergencies do not, but they do get access to redirected grant funds, something akin to shifting the chairs on the Titanic.  Trump’s plans include a “really tough, really big, really great advertising” campaign aimed at persuading people not to start using drugs in the first place.  If this sounds familiar, it’s because it is highly reminiscent of Nancy Reagan’s 1980’s “Just Say No” campaign that did little to prevent drug abuse but did result in an increase in incarceration.  Trump plans to enlist the help of the first lady, Melania in a body con dress and Louboutin stilettos whispering this is your mind on drugs while she searches for a way out of Washington will be fun to watch, especially once Saturday Night Live tweaks the image, but won’t do much for solving the epidemic.  Talking about his brother Fred’s early alcoholic related death, Trump said “this was an idea that I had, where if we can teach young people not to take drugs” because it’s really, really easy not to take them.” Trump, the teetotaler,  seems not to understand that not everyone shares his willpower, with upwards of 60,000 dying a year from opioid addiction, it’s fair to say that it’s not so easy “not to take them.”  More substantively, Trump’s plan does include more training for safe prescription practices, an initiative to develop non-addictive painkillers, an effort to block shipments of fentanyl from China, and one more very important thing, the construction of a really, beautiful big wall.  To fulfill that last commitment, yesterday, the Department of Homeland Security unveiled several border wall prototypes because promises are promises, and Trump promised a wall.

Next Up, Taxes:  The House passed the Senate version of the budget outline, a largely symbolic move that paves the way for what they really want to do next, pass tax reform through the lower vote threshold reconciliation process.  The 216 to 212 House vote was a bit of a squeaker.  With many members of the New York and New Jersey delegations voting “no” due to their concerns that the still not finalized tax plan will eliminate deductions for state and local taxes, Speaker Ryan had to cast his vote to get to the required 216 “ayes,” unusual because the Speaker usually doesn’t vote.  California’s Republican delegation voted for the budget but put leadership on notice that they do not intend to support a tax reform plan that eliminates the deduction.  Leadership is expected to announce the details of their tax reform/cut plan next week.  Then the negotiation, persuasion and threats will really accelerate.  Republicans are desperate to get something passed in order to defuse Steve Bannon’s onslaught against party standard bearers.  Donors are demanding action, high tax state Republicans will need some kind of concession related to the state and local tax deduction and few Trump voters will be happy if they lose their 401 (k) deduction. Making everyone happy while not further inflating the deficit beyond the permitted $!.5 trillion increase will be close to impossible.  At the end of the day, some legislation may pass, but it might not pass before year end and there is a good chance that any resulting legislation will provide a ten year tax cut for some rather than permanent tax reform.

Russia, Russia, Russia:  The Russia investigation is getting attacked on all sides.  A number of Republican members of Congress are planning to go after Special Counsel Mueller’s funding when it comes up for review.  Senate Judiciary Committee heads, Grassley and Feinstein are going their separate ways, Feinstein remains focused on Russian collusion and Trump obstruction, Grassley has shifted his attention to Clinton’s role or non-role in the “Watergate” sized uranium controversy.  To help him with his investigation, Trump directed his staff “to facilitate the Justice Department’s full cooperation to lift” a gag order preventing one FBI informant from providing his testimony about the uranium transaction’s alleged improprieties.  Trump’s move is unprecedented because the Justice Department has strict rules limiting White House involvement in criminal law enforcement matters, especially when it relates to actions involving the President’s political opponents, but Trump is seeking to redirect attention away from the inquiry into his campaign’s Russian activities and attacking Hillary Clinton is a key part of his strategy, so precedents are not his concern even if his actions bolster claims that he is obstructing justice.  As to that problematic Russian involvement, Barbara Ledeen, a conservative activist and a current Judiciary Committee staff member whose husband is a friend of former security advisor Michael Flynn attempted to locate the missing Hillary Clinton emails in 2015, reportedly because she wanted to keep her children safe from foreign intermediaries.  According to The Hill, she sought outside help from a number of people including Newt Gingrich, whose wife Callista was recently confirmed as the US emissary to the Vatican.  Grassley acknowledges that Ledeen is on his staff, but doesn’t see why her involvement is his “investigation” is a problem.  For his part, Devon Nunes, Trump’s stooge, is making the most of this week’s disclosure that the Clinton campaign paid for a portion of the Fusion GPS opposition research work, he told his friends at Fox News that the Democrats are responsible for Russian interference because of “their” dossier.  Nunes is a clown, but he is a clown with a ready and willing news platform that Trump’s base watches religiously.  To cap off the day, without any specific evidence to back up her claim, Sarah Huckabee Sanders told Fox News’ Bill Hemmer, that Special Counsel Mueller was close to wrapping up his investigation  because “every day we find out more and more details about why the President has been right all along and why the Democrats have been wrong all along and I think that each day we’re getting closer and closer to closing the loop on this on our front.”  Mueller’s office had no comment.

The DMZ:  In anticipation of Trump’s upcoming trip to Asia, Defense Secretary Mattis is in Korea, making nice with the South Korean’s in order to blunt anything really foolish that Trump might say or tweet during his visit.  During a stop at the Demilitarized Zone, the narrow, tense strip that separates South Korea from North Korea, he echoed Secretary of State Tillerson’s earlier remarks stating that "our goal is not war, but rather the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean peninsula."  Let’s hope he is right.