Nightmare in Niger

Out of Africa:  Though Trump still refuses to answer any questions about the size of the US presence in Niger or the events that resulted in the death of the four Green Berets, Joint Chief of Staff Dunford was fairly forthcoming during an hour long presentation to the press.  Though an investigation is ongoing and details remain sketchy, it looks like the fallen soldiers and their comrades were set up by local villagers sympathetic to ISIS who pursuaded them to stay longer than they had planned at a meeting with with town elders. ISIS related fighters staged an explosion, ambushing the soldiers when they went to investigate.  Dunford was also much more respectful to the families of the fallen soldiers than Trump who continued his fight with the Sgt. Johnson’s grieving wife Myeshia by questioning her emotional account of their disputed phone call. Almost immediately after she told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos that Trump couldn’t even remember her husband’s name, he tweeted that her recollection of the call was wrong.  It really doesn’t matter what he said or thought he said, she’s upset, she lost her childhood sweetheart, her husband and the father of her two, soon to be three chldren, he should back off but sadly, he can’t help himself and so the imbroglio goes on.  Members of the Congressional Black Caucus are calling him out for his tendency to insult minorities and women and with Congresswoman Frederica Wilson and Myeshia Johnson, he’s hit the daily double. The Caucus is also demanding that General Kelly issue an apology for his “reprehensible,” “reckless,” and “false” statements. Yesterday, Trump made at least one Gold Star father happy, the $25,000 check he promised has finally arrived, the check that was coincidentally dated the same day as the Washington Post article that mentioned how it had been promised but never delivered.

Tax Reform is Complicated:  To avoid a Democratic filibuster Republican leadership plans to pass tax reform through the reconciliation process taking advantage of the lower vote fifty vote threshold that served them so well during their failed attempts to repeal Obamacare. Passing a budget that both the House and Senate agree upon is the first step, so the plan is to finalize the budget resolution this week, hopefully without the need for a time consuming conference to work out their differences.  Once approved the budget plan, itself only an illusory goal, will include a provision allowing the tax reform bill to add $1.5 trillion to the deficit over ten years.  The problem is that a plan that includes all of Trump’s promised tax cuts would result in a $5 trillion deficit increase with corporate tax cuts, the centerpiece of Trump’s plan, contributing a whopping $2 trillion to the total.  Tax writers are on a mission to locate other revenue sources to keep the deficit closer to the $1.5 trillion target.  They thought they had solved some of their problem with their plan to restrict 401(k) contributions  but Trump put the kibosh on that by tweeting that there would be no changes to 401(k)s.  Eliminating the state and local tax deduction would provide a $1.3 trillion decrease in the projected deficit number, however pushback has already started there as well.  The party line is that the tax reform/cut plan is “almost” ready, but it’s not.  The votes might not be there either.  “Little” Senator Corker has already said that he won’t support any tax plan that increases the deficit, Senator McCain voted no the last time tax cuts were proposed and Rand Paul is always hard to pin down.  And that’s just the Senate, if the elimination of the state and local tax deduction remains in the bill Congressional Republicans from high tax states will have a hard time supporting the plan.  Ready or not, the push is on, the White House is in the process of mapping out a multimillion dollar marketing campaign to sell tax reform to the public.     

Election Season:  Listening to the despicable Steve Bannon, you’d think that the 2018 midterm elections were around the corner.  They aren’t yet but there are a few interesting elections coming up during the next few weeks. Virginians go to the polls to elect a new governor on November 7.  Because Virginia Governors cannot succeed themselves, Virginia’s popular Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe cannot run for reeletion so the race is between the Democratic Lt. Governor Ralph Northam and Republican Ed Gillespie.  Most polls show Northam leading by about 5 points, but one  recent poll shows him down by 1 provoking a lot of fear among Democrats who’ve learned to be skeptical of political projections. Obama was in Virginia last week campaigning for Northam, Pence showed up to a half empty room for Gillespie but so far there’s been no Trump, mostly because Gillespie is concerned that he’d be a hindrance.  Despite his mixed feelings, Gillespie is adhering to the Trump playbook, he’s attacked Northam for supporting sanctuary cities even though there are no such cities in Virginia.  Virginia has been gradually moving from purple to blue so a loss here would be especially demoralizing for the Democrats who need to control more governorships to secure a bigger influence on the crucial redistricting that will follow the next census.   The Alabama special election for the Jeff Sessions seat takes place on December 12.  This one should be a shoe-in for the Republican candidate, controversial former judge Roy Moore, Steve Bannon’s golden boy, who is running against Democrat Doug Jones. Trump won Alabama by 28 points but Moore is a controversial character and recent disclosures that he lied about the salary he received from his non-profit Foundation for Moral Law may be hurting him.  Polls are showing a surprisingly close race, though it would be a real shocker if Moore lost in such a solidly red state.  Chris Christie’s term as Governor of New Jersey ends soon, it’s highly likely that the very progressive Democratic candidate Phil Murphy will defeat Republican Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno largely because after eight years of the now very unpopular Christie, New Jersey residents are ready for a change.  The New Jersey election takes place on November 7.  

Russia, Russia, Russia:    The NY Times reports that the House and Senate committees investigating Russian meddling and Trump team collusion are starting to feel pressured to wrap things up sooner rather than later to avoid running too far into next year.  They are understaffed, overwhelmed and in the case of the House Intelligence Committee mired in partisan politics.   That leaves attention focused on Special Counsel Mueller.  He’s still toiling away and now a prominent Democratic lobbyist has gotten pulled into his web.  Mueller is investigating Tony Podesta, not to be confused with his brother John Podesta, Hillary’s campaign manager.  Tony Podesta’s company did work promoting Ukraine’s image as part of a public relations campaign  organized by Paul Manafort.  Podesta may have violated the Foreign Agents Registration Act by failing to disclose work benefitting a foreign government in a timely fashion.  No surprise that Fox News is all over this one, citing Podesta’s involvement, which took place well before 2016, as proof that it wasn’t just Trumpsters who were hobnobbing with the Russians.  Podesta may be in trouble but his problems don’t extend to US election inteference.  The nefarious Putin is up to his old tricks.  He had Bill Browder, the British hedge fund manager responsible for the Magitsky Act, the law that prevents Putin’s cronies from entering into the US, put on Interpol’s International Watch List.  As a result Browder’s US visa was cancelled by the Department of Homeland Security.  Senator McCain responded by tweeting  “Bill Browder is a champion of anti-corruption in #Russia. DHS must immediately review decision to revoke his visa”  When McCain tweets, DHS listens.  Browder has been told that to the extent he still wants to visit, he is once again welcome.  Mueller may still be holding his cards close to his vest but former FBI Director Comey has gone public with his secret twitter handle. You can follow him @FormerBu under the account name of Reinhold Neibuhr, a deceased theologian that Comey studied while an undergraduate at the College of William and Mary.

Other Ironies:  Given the administration’s view on climate science it shouldn’t be all that shocking that the EPA is now refusing to let three of its scientists speak about the demonstrable effects of climate change at the upcoming Narragansett Bay and Watershed program, a government funded program that addresses climate change in the region.  EPA head Scott Pruitt’s lame explanation is that climate science has not yet been subjected to “a robust meaningful debate.”  Melania Trump was in Michigan yesterday speaking out against bullying, telling children to choose kindness instead.  Wonder if she knows how to say hypocrite in any of the five languages she supposedly speaks.  For some inexplicable reason, Sean Spicer is now a visiting fellow at Harvard University. Apparently he is still defending the Trump White House and his lie that Trump’s inauguration was the biggest ever.  Harvard parents should be asking for a tuition rebate.