Play Ball

Bull in a China Shop:  Trump’s trip to the NATO summit has gone just as expected.  He’s insulted allies, especially Germany and Chancellor Angela Merkel, he’s twisted facts, a nice way of saying that he’s been lying, and he’s made another one of his off the cuff demands that no one expected or plans to meet.  No one’s quite sure why he continues to go after Merkel although there are a few theories for why he’s targeted her for especially tough treatment.  Some say that he really is convinced that Germany has gotten rich mooching off of the US, others believe that he just can’t stand Merkel because she is a strong woman who refuses to engage in the kind of obsequious flattery that he expects and gets from other world leaders, and a few more say it’s because she got along well with Obama. As to his supporters, they insist that he is just delivering tough love.  While Trump is correct when he says that Germany is only spending about 1.2% of its GDP on defense, the country has committed to growing that number to the targeted 2.0% by the agreed upon 2024 threshold date.  In any case, the GDP figure understates Germany’s overall contributions since the country also provides the US with valuable bases for its troops and has been a “steadfast” military partner, supporting US actions in Afghanistan. Anyone who has transited through the Frankfurt Airport has seen proof of that cooperation, an abundance of US military planes taking off and landing on the airport’s parallel runways. Though Trump continues to diss Germany by sighting an increase in crime statistics which he claims is due to Germany’s lenient migrant policies, he’s wrong, crime stats aren’t up despite Germany’s admitted migrant related problems. Lastly, he tore into Germany’s Nord Stream 2  project, the planned pipeline under the Baltic Sea which will bring Russian gas to Germany, claiming that it would turn Germany into a Russian vassal. That last comment drew a pointed response from Merkel who grew up in East Germany and knows what its like to be subject to Russian control.  Suffice it to say that she wasn’t happy.  In any case Trump’s real criticism may have as much to do with his anger that Germany will be buying its energy from a non-US source.  He surprised everyone, by unilaterally demanding that all NATO members up their defense spending to 4% of GDP, double the required 2% figure.  Then after signing on to a joint declaration that recommitted NATO members to meeting the previously agreed upon 2% target by 2024, he demanded that they reach the 2% level immediately.  The US currently spends 3.5% of its GDP on defense spending, though a number of defense contractors, manufacturers and congressional hawks would love to see that number grow which may be the real motivation behind Trump’s unexpected 4% demand.  Though he didn’t pull the US out of NATO, as he departed the summit Trump threatened that the US would go its own way if everyone doesn’t start increasing their spending.  And of course, he made a few more false claims, overstating the amount of the NATO budget paid by the US and conflating defense spending with budget contributions.  To no one’s surprise he also called for improved relations with Russia and called Secretary of State Pompeo up to the podium to have him assert that everything is hunky-dory on the North Korean front. When asked by one reporter at the end of summit news conference if he would be tweeting new, inconsistent demands once he was back on Air Force One, he glared and responded, “no that’s other people, I am a stable genius.”  Some genius.

Where are the Children?  Despite promises that at least 34 more of the tender age children would be returned to their parents by the end of Tuesday, it appears that only 4 children have been returned so far.  US officials now report that only 75 of the 102 young, tender age children are “eligible” to be returned.  They say that 17 returns are pending subject to DNA tests, necessary because many of the children are too young to communicate information about their parents.  They also acknowledge that they can’t find any information about the parents of one three year old child!  Judge Sabraw, who set the return dates in the first place, refused to provide the government any relief, specifically telling officials that the deadlines are firm, not an aspirational goal, more or less encouraging the ACLU and the parents to sue to their hearts content.  The deadline for the remaining 2900 children, those over five, is July 26. Given their track record, there is no way that Health and Human Services officials will meet that requirement either.  As to the few children who have been returned, their parents report that they are emotionally distressed with at least one having trouble recognizing a parent because when you are two years old, two months separated is an eternity.

Manafort:  The kids may still be missing, but we now know where Manafort is going.  Despite his protestations, he’s being moved to a new prison in Alexandria, Virginia.  That move came about after his lawyers called for a delay in his trial, saying that they hadn’t been able to prepare adequately because of the burden caused by the long travel time from their offices to his prison in Northern Neck, Virginia.  The judge hasn’t yet ruled on whether or not he will agree to a delay but is requiring that Manafort be moved to Alexandria.  Manafort is not all that happy about the move, it turns out that he had been getting really special VIP treatment from the guys running the Northern Neck facility.  He had his own cell, with an ensuite bathroom.  He wasn’t required to wear one of those natty orange onesies, he appeared to have had unlimited phone access and somehow or other his lawyers were permitted to provide him with the use of a laptop during their visits.  He used the laptop to type out hundreds of emails that were transmitted once his lawyers left and reconnected to the internet.  Mueller’s team learned about the emails because Manafort bragged about them and how well prepared he was for his trial during his phone calls, all of which were taped.  It’s fair to say that Manafort is not much of a stable genius. It’s also highly likely that the judge won’t postpone the trial since he has now seen the transcripts of those phone calls and knows that Manafort feels incredibly well prepared.

Other News:  Justice nominee Brett Kavanaugh may be a legal whiz and the conservatives’ best hope for overturning Roe v Wade, affirmative action, voting rights and even gay marriage,  but he doesn’t have much financial acumen.  He is, however, an avid baseball fan.  His financial disclosure forms reveal that he’s spent tens of thousands of dollars that he couldn’t afford on baseball tickets at times racking up more than $100,000 in ticket debt.  Besides his house, he and his wife don’t have much in the way of financial assets.  Though he may be short cash, he is long in documents.  Because of his years on the court and his years in Republican government jobs, he’s left a long paper trail that now has to be reviewed before his confirmation hearings begin, or at least should be reviewed before his hearings begin.  Though Senate Majority Leader McConnell may want to short cut that process, he is likely to be held to the precedent that was set when Justice Elena Kagan was up for confirmation.  At that time Republicans demanded that all of Kagan’s documents be made available and they were.  Yesterday, the House joined with the Senate unanimously passing their version of a non-binding resolution recommitting US support for NATO which may be why Trump acted out but didn’t formally pull out of the organization.  While the House was focused on NATO, the Senate voted overwhelmingly on a provision calling for Trump to get congressional approval before using national security as a reason for imposing tariffs on other nations, as he did with steel and aluminum levies against Mexico, Canada and the European Union.  The non-binding resolution which passed by a vote of 88 to 11 sends a message to the White House about how frustrated senators are over Trump's disruptive moves on tariffs.  However, to pass enforceable legislation will probably not happen any time soon, if ever, especially in the run up to the November elections.