The Rose Goes to .....

The Supremes: Trump managed to keep his decision to nominate Judge Brett Kavanaugh to serve as the next Supreme Court Justice under cover almost until his prime time rose ceremony, a notable accomplishment for the not so leak proof White House. Despite Trump’s best efforts a few intrepid news reporters ruled out two of the potential nominees after they were spotted puttering around their gardens in their home states and another group of reporters spotted Kavanaugh being picked up by a fleet of limos which was then seen heading off in the direction of the White House so a number of news outlets reported Kavanaugh’s imminent nomination a few minutes ahead of schedule.  Trump’s official 9 PM announcement was immediately followed by a lovely speech from a “humble” Kavanaugh who presented himself as a man of the people who had been raised in a family dedicated to serving the community, so dedicated that his parents had spent some time teaching in the inner city.  That said, Kavanaugh, who clerked for retiring Judge Anthony Kennedy, worked with Ken Starr on the Whitewater investigation into Bill Clinton, served as a George W Bush aide, and was appointed to the Washington DC Federal Court by Bush in 2006, is widely viewed as a staunch conservative, with a track record to match. As to his views on Roe v Wade, although Kavanaugh’s supporters want us to believe that he would uphold the Roe precedent, that’s a push given that he sided with the Trump administration when it tried to prevent the release of a detained teenage migrant seeking an abortion.  After the rest of his colleagues on the DC court ruled in favor of releasing the teenager so that she could obtain the abortion, Kavanaugh argued that the majority "badly erred" in their decision to allow the procedure and characterized the ruling as creating a new right for undocumented immigrant minors in US custody to receive "immediate abortion on demand."  Also, since Trump said that he would only appoint anti-abortion justices, it’s a given that he believes that Kavanaugh will join the anti-abortion wing of the court, tipping the court’s balance and putting Roe in jeopardy.  Kavanaugh is on record saying that he believes that presidents shouldn’t be subject to indictments, he says that they can be but, because he thinks it would be so disruptive as to render them unable to do their job, he recommends that Congress pass legislation that would limit the ability to indict or even sue a sitting president. Given his view, its quite possible that Kavanaugh would conclude that Trump couldn’t be indicted while in office to the extent that Special Counsel Mueller presses forward with such an indictment, something that would most certainly end up in front of the Supreme Court.  Kavanaugh’s nomination also puts Obamacare at risk. His expansive view of executive power, he has argued that a president could decline to enforce a statute such as Obamacare even if a court upholds its constitutionality, makes it quite likely that he will rule in favor of a lawsuit being pursued by attorneys general from twenty states calling for the end of the requirement that health insurers cover those with preexisting conditions.  That case, which the Trump administration has joined, is due to be heard in district court in Texas and could wind up before the Supreme Court soon. Given their minority status, its unlikely that Democrats will be able to stall the Kavanaugh confirmation process beyond the November elections and, even if they could, it’s not a given that it would matter since it’s not all that likely that Democrats will win enough seats to take over control of the Senate anyway, so the confirmation process will in all likelihood move ahead and to the extent that he can pull it off, Senate Majority Leader McConnell will try his best to streamline the process.  Kavanaugh’s opponents are pinning their hopes on the two so called moderate, pro-choice Republican Senators, Murkowski and Collins.  Both of them declined Trump’s invitation to attend Kavanaugh’s coronation as did the few red state Democrats who were also invited. While the abortion issue remains front and center, concerns about the elimination of Obamacare’s preexisting condition mandate is likely to be as important especially to Collins and West Virginia Democrat Manchin since the risk of losing insurance coverage is likely to resonate more with their constituents and could provide those senators with the justification they need to vote against the Kavanaugh appointment.  If either Collins or Murkowski refuse to fold under what will probably be withering pressure from Trump, their fellow Republicans and right wing political groups,  their no votes will probably provide the vulnerable red state Democrats the cover they’ll need to vote no too.  However, if the ladies buckle a few of the red state Democrats will follow much the way some of them did when they voted yes for Justice Gorsuch’s nomination.  At the end of the day, despite the inevitable progressive outrage that will ensue, neither they nor Democratic leadership will see the point in risking their seats, or the possibility, as slim as it may be, of a Democratic takeover of the Senate, on a losing battle.  The game is now on.

International Affairs:  With his Supreme Court nomination out of the way, Trump’s is now on his way to Brussels to attend the NATO summit meeting.  Last year he caused a lot of agita when he initially failed to endorse NATO’s “all for one and one for all commitment.”  This year he is expected to be even more disruptive.  Not only has he ratcheted up his criticism of those countries who haven’t met their full financial contributions and dissed the whole concept of the alliance,  but this time around he’s expected to threaten withdrawing troops from Germany in order to punish German Chancellor Angela Merkel for not contributing more to the NATO budget and also because he really doesn’t like her very much. In an attempt to set him straight, last week the conservative Heritage Foundation tweeted out a few points for Trump to remember before he further disrupts the world order.  Specifically they tweeted “Russia is the aggressor – Ukraine is the victim.  Crimea belongs to Ukraine, NATO and US troops in Europe serve our national interests.  Europeans must spend more on defense.  Putin’s track record shows he can’t be trusted.”  Angela Merkel isn’t the only European leader under pressure.  UK’s Prime Minister Theresa May is facing a crisis of her own.  Her plan for a “soft” Brexit are facing pushback from her own party.  Her Brexit Minister surprised her by resigning and Boris Johnson, a Brexit supporter who aspires to supplant her as Prime Minister also jumped ship saying that her soft approach to exiting the European community would turn the UK into a colony of the rest of the European community. Because dealing with Brexit and bolting ministers isn’t enough torture for one month, Trump is expected to stop by London after he finishes disrupting the NATO alliance and though he will be meeting with the Queen, few other Londoners are all that excited about his visit which explains why a few of them plan to fly a large mocking baby Trump blimp during his visit.  Following his London stay, Trump heads to Helsinki for his much anticipated meeting with his BFF Putin.  They haven’t seen each other for a while but by many accounts they do speak frequently.  In fact it’s thought that many of Trump’s most controversial statements and “off the cuff” policy changes, including his surprise announcement of the cancellation of the usual joint military exercises with South Korea and his suggestion that the annexation of Crimea was justified because the locals there speak Russian originated with Putin.  As to Korea, despite the North Koreas assertion that Trump and his messenger Secretary of Pompeo are acting like gangsters, Trump insists that all will end well there because he has a “contract” with Kim Jung Un, and that “contract” will be honored, or else. 

Migrant Status: Dolly Gee, the US District Court judge responsible for overseeing the 1997 Flores Consent Decree Agreement, rebuffed  Trump’s Justice Departments efforts to alter the agreement to allow for the long-term detention of migrant children entering the US “illegally” with their parents.  The Judge was dismissive of the  Trump administration’s legal argument which she called out as “tortured” and ”cynical.”  She did say that some immigrant families could be detained together if their parents’ consent, but said that without that consent the children must be released. She also said that an indefinite placement of a child in an unlicensed detention facility, “would constitute a fundamental and material breach” of the Flores Agreement. That’s a particular problem for the government since virtually all of the facilities where adults are currently being held are not licensed to hold children. Since Trump has said that children will no longer be separated from their parents at the border, Judge Gee’s ruling pretty much pushes immigration officials back to the “catch and release” practice that Trump abhors.  The Justice Department is reviewing the ruling and is expected to appeal to the 9^th Circuit Court of Appeals, at some point the case could make it all the way to the Supreme Court, just another reason why confirming Kavanaugh is so problematic.   As to the 3000 or so children who have already been separated from their families, yesterday a Justice Department lawyer represented that 54 of the 102 “tender age” children will be reunited with their families by today.  The Judge in that case also set another hearing for today to get an explanation as to why the remaining 48 are not being returned on time. His order to reunite the 2900 older children by July 26 remains in force. No one from the government has yet been held in contempt even though their actions do remain contemptible.