Unprecedented

The Complaint:  Early yesterday the White House released a lightly redacted version of the so-called Whistleblower Complaint.  Only about nine pages long, the complaint is bigly problem for all involved in the Ukraine mess.  The Whistleblower begins by acknowledging that he (or she, but going forward I’ll use he) did not personally witness much of what he included in the complaint but that it was put together based on information shared with him by a number of other concerned witnesses to a series of events, most notably the now infamous July 25 phone call with Ukraine President Zelensky which most if not all of them listened to from the White House situation room. A few takeaways from the complaint: first it details how members of the White House staff, including several White House lawyers, realized that Trump had veered into dangerous territory on the July call when he pressured Zelensky to cooperate in an investigation into his rival Joe Biden in exchange for military aid so instead of placing the transcript of the call into the usual computer/record keeping system for such communications they stashed it into the super-secret, isolated computer system usually used for “codeword-level” intelligence information, a computer generally used to protect details of covert operations such as the raid that killed Osama bin Laden rather than routine conversations with world leaders.  Second, Trump dangled but held up having a meeting with Zelensky, one that Zelensky very much needed in order to send the message to Russia of Ukraine’s importance to the US, leaving the impression that he would only agree to the meeting after Zelensky started investigating Biden. Trump had earlier pulled VP Pence from the US traveling squad attending Zelensky’s May inauguration, leaving Energy Secretary Perry as the most senior US participant, a fairly direct message that absent cooperation on the investigation Zelensky wasn’t worthy of someone as senior as Pence.  Third, as a result of the trouble stirred up by Trump’s lawyer/fixer Rudy Giuliani who was busy working his contacts to dig up Biden dirt and the DNC server, two US Ambassadors, Kurt Volker, the special representative for Ukraine negotiations and Gordon Sondland, the Ambassador to the European Union, had to go into damage control mode, trying to explain to members of the new Ukrainian administration how to understand and respond to the messages that they were receiving from Trump through Giuliani, particularly when those messages conflicted with direction coming from more usual State Department contacts.

The Whistleblower:  The NY Times took a lot of heat yesterday after the paper reported that the Whistleblower was a CIA Analyst who for a time had been detailed to the White House.  Critics were concerned that the NY Times report risked identifying the Whistleblower, subjecting him to Trump’s retribution, not an unreasonable concern given that Trump railed against both the Whistleblower and any and all of the White House staff who had worked with him saying that in the old days “we used to handle people like that differently than we do now,” implying that the lying, partisan hack and his abettors should be subjected to one of those old time electrocutions or maybe even a firing squad.  While initially criticism of the Times appeared valid, it turns out that while the White House still doesn’t know who the Whistleblower is, they already knew that he works for the CIA.  They know that because before the Whistleblower submitted his formal complaint to the Intelligence Community Inspector General, he expressed his concern about Trump’s abuse of power for his own political interests and provided details of the July call to the CIA’s top lawyer who, following “normal procedure,” relayed those concerns to the White House and the Justice Department. Shortly after that, growing concerned that his report wasn’t getting proper attention, the Whistleblower then filed his formal complaint with the Inspector General. The Whistleblower’s lawyers are now working with House Intelligence Chairman Schiff to obtain permission for him to testify before Congress, presumably in a manner that will continue to protect his identity because already two Trump friendly conspiracy theorists have put out a bounty for him.  As to those White House lawyers, they concluded that the Whistleblower’s complaint didn’t qualify as a valid intelligence concern since Trump isn’t a member of the intelligence community so they forwarded it to Justice to look into as a criminal complaint.  Justice determined that there was no crime and did nothing, not all that surprising given that Attorney General Barr believes that, as president, Trump can do no wrong and that he is also involved in the whole mess. Some, if not all of these lawyers, probably should start hiring lawyers of their own, they might need them very soon.  At last count 225 members of Congress were on the impeachment bandwagon and reports are that Speaker Pelosi wants to get the impeachment done by Thanksgiving because who doesn’t want some must see TV alongside their Turkeys?                      

The DNI’s Testimony:  Yesterday Acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire, a former Vice Admiral and Navy SEAL, testified about the Whistleblower’s Complaint first in an open televised hearing before the House Intelligence Committee and then later in the day before a closed door session of the Senate Committee.  In some ways the House hearing went about as expected. Chairman Schiff and the other Democrats pressed Maguire for details about how he handled the complaint, got him to acknowledge that the Whistleblower was an honorable fellow (or lady) and that the complaint appeared to be legitimate.  Ranking Member Devon Nunes and the Republicans with one or two exceptions took the opposite tack, attacking the Whistleblower as a perpetrator of misinformation and hearsay and their Democratic colleagues as desperate impeachment crazy lunatics who were just re-upping that old Russian “witch hunt” to get rid of their hero, Trump.  Maguire, who had only been in his job for minutes when the Whistleblower Complaint came to his attention, seemed like a fish out of water despite his days swimming among the sharks.  He had a difficult time explaining why he thought that sending the complaint to the White House lawyers and Attorney General Barr’s Justice Department, a group of people implicated by the Whistleblower, made any sense.  He kept on saying that the whole situation was “unprecedented” given Trump’s involvement and that he sought legal advice because he thought it was the right thing to do given that whole executive privilege thing.  Sadly he didn’t seem all that concerned that absent the insistence of the Inspector General that the existence of the complaint had to be reported to the House and Senate Intelligence Committees, his action would have led to the squashing of the complaint or might have convinced the Whistleblower to do something illegal, like go to the press, Snowden style, in order to get his concerns the attention they warrant.  Early in the administration a lot of people were pleased that Trump appointed so many military people to senior positions, believing that such an honorable crowd would help restrain Trump’s worse instincts. Others weren’t so sure, it turns out that the doubters are right, those military guys are for the most part honorable but they are also trained to follow the chain of command and are ill equipped to cope when the person at the top of that chain is rotten to the core.   

Other News:  Trump is continuing to wage two of his favorite wars.  He has his EPA going after California, claiming that the state’s homeless population is responsible for polluting all the of the state’s waterways with their hypodermic needles. Improperly disposed of needles, a problem, but it’s hard to buy into the EPA’s claim that needles are really the concern.  The EPA is also blaming California for not doing a better job keeping the air clean; that from the administration that want’s to allow more carbon emissions. On the immigration front, Trump has ordered that the number of refugees allowed to resettle in the US in the coming year be cut to 18,000, down from the administration's previous refugee ceiling of 30,000 and an 80% cut from the 110,000 allowed into the US during the last year of the Obama administration.  So much for those huddled masses yearning to be free.   

Shana Tova to all.

Inflection Point?

The July Call:  Things really do feel different this time and not in a good way for Team Trump, or not.  Yesterday, the White House released what they are calling a transcript of his now infamous July phone call with Ukraine President Zelensky.  The so-called transcript was probably not complete but it was very damning. The weird thing is that because it didn’t include an explicit quid pro quo, Trump’s team thought it was exculpatory, at least that’s what they said in the talking points that they distributed to Republican members of the House and Senator, talking points that, in another act of incompetence, they inadvertently shared with all of the Democrats who immediately started tweet mocking their Republican colleagues using those “defense” points.  As detailed in the transcript, Trump began the July call by congratulating Zelensky for his election victory before going on to criticize European leaders for not doing enough for Ukraine. Zelensky, agreed with Trump, part of his effort to be collegial and fawning, knowing that’s what you are supposed to do when speaking with Trump. After a bit of small talk Zelensky then expressed appreciation for US aid adding that he was ready to buy more Javelin anti-tank missiles. In response Trump uttered a Mafia style version of a quid pro quo saying “I would like you to do us a favor though because our country has been through a lot and Ukraine knows a lot about it.”  He followed that up first by asking Zelensky to help figure out the situation with Crowdstrike, the technology company that the DNC retained after discovering their servers had been hacked during the 2016 election, a reference to a conspiracy theory pushed by Roger Stone, among others, that it was Ukrainians who hacked the DNC and have those 30,000 Hillary emails not Putin and his Russian trolls.  After that Trump asked Zelensky to cooperate with Attorney General Barr and that “highly respected” former Mayor of New York Rudy Giuliani on an investigation into Joe Biden and his son Hunter.  While doing so Trump also managed to malign the former US Ambassador to Ukraine, the respected long term US diplomat who he recalled from Ukraine because she was a “bad news” woman.  Zelensky, obviously desperate to get more of those Javelins, agreed to everything.  Last night the NY Times reported that Trump’s fixation with Ukraine and his desire to get those “Hillary emails” as well as implicate Joe Biden traces back far further than the July phone call.  This mess is deep and to say the least very troubling.  So troubling that at last count Pelosi and her team now have the 218 votes they need for impeachment.  

Circular Firing Squad:  Yesterday, as planned Trump met with Zelensky. In a press conference that followed, Zelensky, who looked shell shocked remained appropriately fawning to Trump though he did manage to utter that he “did not want to get involved in US elections.” Too bad for him, he already is.  Later, in another press conference where he summarized all the great things that he accomplished during the UN meetings, Trump managed to throw VP Pence under the bus by telling the assorted press representatives that they “should ask for Vice President Pence’s conversations, because he had a couple of conversations also.”  So in case you’ve stopped counting, over the past few days Trump has implicated his VP, his Secretary of State, his good buddy/lawyer Giuliani, his Attorney General, his Chief of Staff and a few ambassadors in the Ukraine quid pro quo mess.  Of those only Giuliani seems happy about being implicated, though he too is pointing fingers at others. Tuesday night he told Fox’s Laura Ingraham that all his work with the Ukrainians had been done at the request of Pompeo’s State Department.  To prove that point, he held up his cell phone, claiming it was chock full of information documenting how he’d kept State fully in the loop about everything he’d done. Time to subpoena that phone, someone please.

Whistleblower Time:  Late yesterday, the White House provided copies of the Whistleblower complaint for members of the House and Senate Intelligence Committees to review in their respective super-secure SCIF facilities.  A number of them, including a few Republicans,  emerged looking dazed and troubled but given the rules of the road no one provided specific details.  However, we should learn more about the contents of the complaint today because last night the White House declassified all or part of the complaint to be released as soon as this morning. Additionally, the acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire, is scheduled to testify today before both the House and Senate Intel Committees.  According to some reports Maguire threatened to resign unless the White House okayed him speaking openly about the contents of the Whistleblower complaint so his testimony should be revealing. As to the complaint we learned yesterday that intelligence officials sent a related criminal referral to the Justice Department asking them to open an investigation into whether or not anyone implicated in it had committed  campaign finance violations.  Here’s a shocker, Barr’s Justice Department concluded that it was a nothing burger, just another problem for Barr who should recuse himself from this mess, but probably won’t. As to Barr, last May Senator Kamala Harris asked him if the Trump administration had requested the opening of any investigations into anyone for them.  He refused to answer, pretending not to understand the question.  Harris is now demanding he return to give that question another go, because the transcript of the Zelensky call certainly makes it look like he was asked to open an investigation into the Bidens.

Republican Response:  The usual Republican suspects are lining up behind Trump on all of this with Moscow Mitch saying it’s “laughable to think this is anywhere close to an impeachable offense” but a few cracks in the red wall, albeit really small ones, are starting to appear.  Mitt Romney finds all of this “deeply troubling,”  Ben Sasse, the Nebraska senator who is up for reelection in 2020  said “There are real troubling things here. Republicans ought not just circle the wagons and Democrats ought not be using words like 'impeach' before they knew anything about the actual substance,” and Mike Murphy,  a former aide to both Romney and McCain said he’s been told that 30 Republican Senators would vote for impeachment.  That’s probably not correct, but it sounds nice.  

Other News:  Israel’s President Rivlin has asked Bibi Netanyahu to try to form a government.  It’s not clear that he will be able to do so and allowing him to be asked first could be a strategy, albeit a risky one, by his opponent, Benny Gantz to prove that he can’t.  Then again Bibi keeps rising from the ashes, so who knows.  Domestically, the US Senate again voted to kill Trump’s national emergency declaration, the one he’s been using to justify the redirection of funds to his wall project, unfortunately the majority didn’t gain any new votes so Trump is expected to issue another veto and go on building.  And lying.    

    

Wait No More

And So It Begins:  Trump was at the UN again yesterday where he gave another one of his speeches exhorting the value of nationalism, emphasizing his view that all nations should be looking inward, considering their own interests first. Putting aside the inappropriateness of advocating for nationalism at an address to a multinational institution created as an antidote to the dangers of nationalism, there is some humor in the timing of Trump’s speech because while he was talking about looking inward, Speaker Pelosi was putting the finishing touches on her impeachment speech, the much awaited announcement that was finally triggered by the whistleblower report about Trump reaching outward to Ukraine for election assistance.  In anticipation of Pelosi’s announcement, as the day progressed more Democratic members of the House announced that they were on the impeachment bandwagon.  Civil Rights icon John Lewis made a full throated speechlet on the House floor saying “We cannot wait….the future of our democracy is as stake.”  Including Lewis somewhere around 196 Democrats are now publicly on board and it’s fair to assume that Pelosi, who is known for her counting skills, has the additional 22 votes that she’ll need if and when she takes an impeachment vote to the whole House floor.  Before Pelosi released her statement Trump came up with still another reason for holding up the Ukraine military aid package because his Monday corruption excuse hadn’t fooled anyone.  This time he said that he’d held up the aid to push Europe to pick up their share of the burden.  For the record European countries and institutions have already provided more than three times as much aid to Ukraine than the US.  Neither Pelosi nor anyone else for that matter bought his newest excuse.  Around 5 PM the Speaker formally announced the initiation of an “impeachment inquiry” saying “The actions taken to date by the president have seriously violated the Constitution….Trump “must be held accountable — no one is above the law.”  Adding that Trump’s conduct revealed his “betrayal of his oath of office, betrayal of our national security and betrayal of the integrity of our elections.”  Trump’s official position is that he welcomes the Democrats impeachment “witch hunt” but like most things he says, that’s just another fabrication.  He actually called Pelosi early yesterday morning to see if he could “work something” out about the whistleblower complaint that triggered the move to impeachment in order to stop her from moving forward.  As to the whistleblower report and the transcript of Trump’s call with Ukraine President Zelensky, the White House now says that both will be provided to the House and Senate by the end of the week.  While that sounds promising, don’t be fooled.  The White House is likely to release the transcript, as early as today but the term transcript is misleading, no one really takes stenographer type notes of president’s calls, instead the released transcript will be just an edited version of what was discussed on the call.  It’s fair to assume that those notes will gloss over any of the inappropriate “investigate Joe Biden and his son now or there be no aid for you” stuff that Trump said to Ukraine President Zelensky and that immediately after they are released Trump, one or more of his lawyers and Republican leadership will announce that the notes prove he said nothing wrong.  As to the whistleblower complaint, as surprising as it sounds, the Republican led Senate voted unanimously for a resolution asking the White House to release the complaint to the Intelligence Committees and the White House reports that it will do so later in the week, after they remove anything that needs to remain top secret.  It’s fair to assume that they will try to edit out lots of implicating stuff hiding behind the guise of national security though that might not work since the  whistleblower’s lawyers report that he or she is seeking permission to testify before the Intelligence Committees.  While it’s still not clear when, if ever, we will hear from the whistleblower, the acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire, who under pressure from the White House, refused to turn over the whistleblower report that the Trump appointed Inspector General for intelligence determined is both “urgent and credible,” is scheduled to testify tomorrow.  

The Giuliani Connection:  He’s no James Bond, nor is he even an Austin Powers, but the Washington Post reports that Rudy Giuliani has been Trump’s designated Ukraine man for some time now.  Apparently, with Trump’s support, Giuliani was allowed to push aside national security aides, regional experts and the respected Ambassador to the Ukraine, as part of their concerted efforts to dig up “proof” that Hilary Clinton received help from various Ukrainians during the 2016 election and “dirt” on Joe and Hunter Biden’s “corrupt” activities.  WaPo reports that the sequence of events “involved the abrupt removal of the US ambassador to Ukraine, the circumvention of senior officials on the National Security Council, and the suspension of the hundreds of millions of dollars of aid administered by the Defense and State departments.  All of this was going on in plain sight, Secretary of State Pompeo knew about it, as did VP Pence and national security advisor John Bolton.  The rest of us knew too as a lot of this was in the press.  Apparently staff was so concerned about Trump trying to push Zelensky to come up with Biden implicating dirt that they tried to stop him from speaking or having a meeting with him.  Obviously they weren’t all that successful.  It’s quite possible that the whistleblower is one of those staff people who watched the Ukraine fiasco take place in real time.  By the way, Trump is due to have a face to face sit down with Zelensky, like him another former reality TV star, who is in New York for the United Nations annual meetings today. That could be awkward.       

2020:  It’s not clear what if any effect the initiation of impeachment proceedings will have on the 2020 elections.  Obviously Republicans hope that the “witch hunt” will energize their base while Democrats who will likely stick to health care and other more resonant issues on the campaign trail, hope and pray otherwise.  As to the debates, Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard has earned a place on the stage for the October round bringing the total participant count to twelve: the ten who appeared in September plus Tom Steyer and Gabbard.  The DNC has raised the qualifying requirements for the November debates, as of now only VP Biden, Senators Warren, Sanders, Harris and Mayor Buttigieg have qualified. Emphasis on for now.    

Inherent Contempt

Drip, Drip, Plop:  Trump spent yesterday in New York City at the United Nations annual meeting.  In addition to hobnobbing with a number of world leaders and making an unexpected very short flyby into a session on climate change, the theme of this year’s meetings, he answered questions and tweeted about Ukraine.  He continues to deny that he asked Ukraine’s President Zelensky to gin up an investigation into Joe and Hunter Biden in exchange for aid but did say that he could have if he wanted to. Though the White House is still sitting on both the transcript of Trump’s call with Zelensky and what is probably the far more damning whistleblower complaint that brought the whole Ukraine fiasco into the public eye, more details about the mess continue to emerge.  Last night both the Washington Post and the NY Times reported that one week before his questionable call with Zelensky took place Trump ordered acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney who still serves as the Director of the Office of Management and Budget to arrange to have $400 million of military aid held back from Ukraine. He did that over the objections of then national security advisor John Bolton who expressed concern over the implications for Ukraine’s security. OMB then relayed Trump’s order to the State Department and the Pentagon who were told that Trump had “concerns” about corruption, as if corruption would ever concern him, and “wanted to analyze whether the money needed to be spent.”  OMB officials were told to tell concerned members of the House and the Senate, and there were many on both sides of the aisle, that the delays were “part of an ‘interagency process’ but to give them no additional information” about the hold up.   The hold-up continued until pressure from Congress resulted in the money finally being released on the night of September 11.  Though most Republicans in the House and Senate continue to support Trump because that’s what they do, Senator Mitt Romney has broken rank, yesterday referring to Trump’s statements, he told reporters that "Understanding exactly what he said would be very helpful I think to determine whether the allegations, which are quite serious, are allegations that will have consequence.” Though Romney’s statement was far, far, far from forceful, it hit home with Trump who responded by mocking Romney and his failed run for the presidency.  For his part, the ever loyal Moscow/Mitch McConnell  called Democratic concerns over Trump actions “regrettable” though he did confirm that the Senate Intelligence Committee is going to get a “briefing” on the whistleblower’s report and Lindsey Graham said that the public will be “blown away” by Trump’s “transparency” when they find out what Trump really said during his phone call with Zelensky whatever that means. For their part Democrats appear to have had enough.  Ukraine may not be fairing well in its battle against its land grabbing neighbor Russia but it seems to be accomplishing what the Russian scandal never managed to do: pushing moderate “at risk” House Democrats to move into the pro-impeachment camp and it’s looking more and more likely that Speaker Pelosi, who has been reluctant to act without their support is going along with them.  Late yesterday the Washington Post published an op-ed penned by seven of those vulnerable Congressional newbies, all veterans of the military and/or defense and intelligence services.  The seven say that if the allegations about Trump and Ukraine are true, they view his actions as an “impeachable offense.”  They go on to call on their colleagues in Congress “to consider the use of all congressional authorities available to us, including the power of ‘inherent contempt’ and impeachment hearings, to address these new allegations, find the truth and protect our national security.” They aren’t the only Democrats now convinced that impeachment is the right way to go, last night two other senior Democrats, Connecticut’s Rosa DeLauro, a close Pelosi ally, and Michigan’s Debbie Dingell jumped onto the pro-impeachment bandwagon with DeLauro calling the Ukraine situation a matter of “grave urgency” and a “turning point.”  Speaker Pelosi spent the night sounding out members of her caucus on impeachment and has scheduled a 4 pm all hands on deck meeting on the subject.  Stay tuned.         

Climate Denier Syndrome:  Turning back to the UN and climate change, Trump walked out before teen climate change activist Grete Thunberg delivered her impassioned and scathing speech to the UN’s General Assembly.  Thunberg, who has been nominated for the Nobel Peace prize that Trump wants so much, accused world leaders of failing her generation saying “This is all wrong.  I shouldn’t be up here.  I should be back in school on the other side of the ocean. Yet you all come to us young people for hope? How dare you!" adding “I want you to listen to the scientists, and I want you to unite behind the science. And then I want you to take real action.”  Though most reacted to Thunberg’s speech by acknowledging that her criticism is spot on and with admiration for her drive and passion, a number of right wing climate deniers attacked her with one Fox guest calling the activist who proudly refers to her Asperger’s syndrome diagnosis as her own superpower as a  “mentally ill Swedish child,” something that seemed to please Trump who mocked her by sarcastically tweeting “She seems like a very happy young girl looking forward to a bright and wonderful future. So nice to see!”  As to that whole Nobel Prize thing, Trump commented on that too.  He said that he deserves one “for a lot of things” but has not received one yet because they are not given out fairly. 

Across the Pond:  The British High Court ruled that Prime Minister Boris Johnson acted unlawfully when he suspended parliament for five weeks.  Parliament is now set to resume tomorrow.  Beyond the implications for the UK and it’s continuing Brexit problem, it is impressive that the British Courts can react so quickly to a crisis while the US courts muddle through ours at a snail’s pace.     

Absurdistan

Ukraine, Ukraine, Biden: The big story of the weekend should have been that Trump is accelerating arms sales and moving more US troops to Saudi Arabia but instead the focus was on Trump’s Ukraine fiasco and his team’s concerted effort to deflect blame for his newest really bad actions on to former VP Joe Biden, the Democratic rival that outpolls him in most of those crucial swing states that went his way in 2016.  It’s probably no coincidence that Trump started to put the squeeze on Ukraine’s new President Volodymyr Zelensky almost immediately after Special Counsel Mueller's muted testimony about the results of his Russia Report. Feeling emboldened by the lack of consequences from getting Russian help during the last election he probably figured that seeking out or, in this case, demanding help from Ukraine during the 2020 election cycle wouldn’t have consequences either.  To be sure, he hadn’t anticipated that there would be whistleblower in the wings ready to tell all about how he’d pressured Zelensky to fabricate dirt on Joe Biden or face losing crucial aid but, to borrow a phrase from Elizabeth Warren, he's got a plan for that.  That plan, which has been playing out all weekend in real time, follows the usual Trump playbook:  deny then admit the offense, claim the offense is a legitimate presidential prerogative, attack the deep state for revealing the offense and blame a rival for doing something far worse.  The first step involved Rudy Giuliani’s alcohol enhanced spiel on Chris Cuomo’s CNN show, the one where he admitted that there had been Zelensky arm twisting and that he had helped, and so what. The next step involved Trump’s admission that he had talked with Zelensky, that the call had been fabulous but that it was unconscionable that someone from the deep state, obviously a Trump hating, devious Democrat, had listened in and had complained about what he shouldn’t have overheard in the first place and that the real problem was Joe Biden and his criminal son. As usual the next step involved commanding appearances by the usual cast of cabinet characters, including Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Secretary of State Pompeo, sending them out to the Sunday talk shows to deny that Trump had done anything inappropriate while at the same time having them attack the Bidens as the real crime family.  As to Joe Biden and his son Hunter, there is no there, there. In a nutshell, back when he was president Obama sent Joe Biden to Ukraine to encourage the country to fight corruption.  In that capacity Biden pushed Ukraine’s leadership to fire their ineffectual, corrupt General Prosecutor who was then fired.  Around that time Hunter Biden starting serving on the board of a Ukrainian gas extraction company, optically problematic but something that the Obama White House concluded was not a conflict of interest because Hunter was a private citizen.  Anyway both of the Bidens’ roles have been investigated to death by anyone and everyone trying to throw dirt at Biden, including virtually every media outlet and the conclusion has been and continues to be that everything was legit and that Joe Biden pushing the General Prosecutor to resign, widely seen by other western allies as a good thing, was the right action to take.  It was particularly disgraceful to watch Pompeo, Mnuchin and Giuliani sling mud Biden’s way on this weekend’s news shows. You could tell by the looks on Pompeo and Mnuchin’s faces that they both knew that they were aiding and abetting another Trump crime, not that anyone’s counting anymore.  For his part Giuliani looked like he was enjoying himself.  Mnuchin looked particularly distressed when CNN’s Jake Tapper asked him why Hunter Biden’s business dealings were a problem when Trump’s kids’ weren’t.  Mnuchin looked like he wanted to dive under the desk and he probably should have.  Later when asked if Trump’s plan to stay away from this week’s planned UN climate change meetings was a bad thing for the earth and future generations, the best Mnuchin could come up with was that when he lived in California he drove a Tesla.  Back to the Ukraine affair, Trump claims that he is now seriously considering releasing the transcript of his call or calls with Zelensky, the calls where the Wall Street Journal reports he pushed Zelensky at least eight times to come up with Biden dirt, so that everyone can see that nothing inappropriate was discussed.  He’ll likely to that right after they are “acid washed” to borrow one of his favorite phrases, or after he releases his tax returns, right?  On the Democratic side, calls for impeachment are reaching a crescendo, even House Intel chief Adam Schiff who rarely sneezes without Speaker Pelosi’s permission acknowledges that the Ukraine stuff could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.  And back to the camels and the desert, next time Iran goes after Saudi interests, and there probably will be a next time, with more US troops in the region, they just might find it hard to avoid killing one or more.  If US lives are lost, Trump who to date has shown remarkable restraint given his hawkish advisors and his own impulse control problems, might finally push a button or two, and unlike last time, when he pulled back at the very last minute from striking the Iranians for the downing of one of our drones, he might just let a counterattack go forward.  Besides by then he might decide that his campaign might need a little bit of that “wag the dog” stuff.

2020:  A lot of noise this weekend about Senator Elizabeth Warren’s ascending poll numbers, particularly her improving Iowa poll position where her 22% share now has her in a statistical tie with Biden who stands at 20%.  Bernie Sanders has “faded” to 11% with Buttigieg at 9% and Harris at 6%.  The Iowa caucuses don’t take place until February so there’s plenty of time for shifting back and forth as the pollsters also report that many respondents still aren’t strongly committed.  That said, though Iowa has, or at least currently has two Republican Senators and the state voted for Trump in 2016, the state’s Democrats are a fairly liberal bunch.  It’s not all that surprising that Warren, who allocated resources to the state early is doing well there and it’s not yet clear what winning Iowa will mean.  Senator Cory Booker who is having trouble gaining traction also appears to be facing financial headwinds. Though he’s qualified for the stage for the next set of debates, he was out over the weekend pleading with his supporters to send cash or else.  In other election news, AXIOS reports that Trump’s threat to start banning certain vaping products to protect the lives of children like Melania’s son Barron may be following the trajectory of his oft promised support for gun control legislation.  Apparently, his pollsters have advised him that Trump-leaning vapers in swing states will pull their support if he pulls their products from the store shelves.  Personally, that sounds absurd to me but what do I know?       

Whistle While You Work 

Drip, Drip, Drip:  The saga of the thwarted whistleblower complaint continues.  The day started with Trump issuing one of his non-denial, denials.  Instead of forcefully saying that he hadn’t had any inappropriate conversations nor made any illegal promises to any foreign leaders he tweeted “Another Fake News story out there - It never ends! Virtually anytime I speak on the phone to a foreign leader, I understand that there may be many people listening from various U.S. agencies, not to mention those from the other country itself. No problem! Knowing all of this, is anybody dumb enough to believe that I would say something inappropriate with a foreign leader while on such a potentially “heavily populated” call.”  Of course, the answer to that question is that virtually everyone who’s been paying attention knows that he is dumb enough to say and devious enough to do inappropriate things because we’ve heard him reveal top secret spy info to the Russians, tweet out capability revealing satellite photos and, as recently as Wednesday, he was on the verge of revealing secret information about border technology.  

Anyway, getting back to the whistleblower saga, with the aid of AG Barr’s Justice Department the White House is still doing its best to prevent the Inspector General and the acting Director of National Intelligence from revealing exactly what it was that freaked out the whistleblower enough for him or her to put his or her career on the line by reporting that Trump had “promised” something he shouldn’t have promised to a world leader.  Despite the White House’s obstructive efforts, two sources informed the Washington Post that the whistleblower’s concerns were triggered not by a promise to Vladimir Putin but by a mid-July phone call between Trump and Ukraine’s new president Volodymyr Zelensky.  Though details of the call have not yet “dripped” out yet, it looks likely that Trump engaged in some serious arm twisting with Zelensky, part of an effort to get the newly elected president and political neophyte to “cooperate” in an “investigation” of former VP Joe Biden and his son Hunter’s activities in Ukraine in exchange for the release of previously promised and authorized military aid. Because who doesn’t seek aid from foreign governments in the run up to an election?  Congressional Democrats had already been investigating that call, questioning why they hadn’t received a full “read out” of what had been discussed.  It’s probably not a coincidence that, claiming concerns about political corruption in Ukraine, the Trump administration sat on the aid in question until a few weeks ago, only agreeing to release the funds after being pressured to do so by a bipartisan group of senators.  Yesterday, Michael Atkinson, the very frustrated Inspector General, a career government employee appointed by Trump to his current position, testified before a closed door session of an equally frustrated House Intelligence Committee.  Atkinson confirmed that he continues to believe that the whistleblower’s report is both urgent and of utmost concern and that he disagrees with Joseph McGuire, the acting Director of National Intelligence’s questionable, White House dictated, conclusion that it isn’t as well as the acting DNI’s decision to keep the House and Senate Intel committees in the dark, but that he is prohibited by law from revealing the contents of the whistleblower’s report because that responsibility is outside of his job description. McGuire, the Acting DNI, who is not expected to be all that forthcoming, is scheduled to appear before the House Committee next week.  To cap off the day, Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s crazy as a fox legal advisor who has traveled to Ukraine a few times on Trump’s behalf made an appearance on Chris Cuomo’s CNN program last night.  During their conversation he first denied asking anyone in Ukraine’s government to dig up dirt on anyone before blurting “Of course I asked the Ukraine to look into Joe Biden related to his ‘massive bribery scandal.’” Going on to say that he was proud that he had.  Giuliani seems to be taking a page from his and Trump’s Playmate/ Porn Star Playbook, the page where they first deny that Trump did anything wrong, then say if he did it wasn’t wrong, before admitting that he did it.  Separately, another Washington Post correspondent, Robert Costa, reports that he was the assigned pool reporter who accompanied VP Pence during his recent trip to Poland, the one where Pence stood in as Trump’s last minute replacement while Trump stayed home playing golf and overseeing the hurricane that didn’t hit Alabama.  During that meeting Pence had a somewhat tense meeting with President Zelensky that was also attended by then national security advisor Bolton and Energy Secretary Perry.  After the meeting, Pence said something about standing with the people of Ukraine on their security while a pained, knee shaking Zelensky mumbled that his administration was poised to defeat corruption.  Makes you wonder what Pence knows, how much he abetted the crime in question and whether he can be compelled to testify.  And Bolton, this could be his opportunity to really stick it to Trump.

Guns and Taxes:  Trump is now suing New York in an attempt to block the subpoena seeking his tax returns.  His lawyers are taking the position, one that they acknowledge has not been tested, that the “Constitution effectively makes sitting presidents immune from all criminal inquiries until they leave the White House.” In other news, a California federal judge granted the Trump campaign’s request to block the new California law that requires presidential and gubernatorial candidates to release five years of tax returns to run in the state’s primary elections. On the election front, that #MoscowMitch moniker must really be sticking in the Senate Majority Leader’s craw.  Yesterday he finally agreed to back legislation providing the states with $250 million of funding for election security. It’s time to go viral with the NRAMitch hashtag because so far nothing is happening on the gun front although Colt has suspended production of the version of the AR 15 assault rifle that they produce for civilians, not because they believe that it’s an inappropriate product but because demand is down as the market is currently saturated.  What a comforting feeling knowing that all those “good guys with a gun” who want AR 15s ready have them.  

Out:  And NY Mayor Bill De Blasio is no longer running for president possibly because he was polling somewhere around 0% or less.    

I've Got a Secret

Drip, Drip, Drip: The thing about secrets is that they are hard to keep, particularly in leaky Washington.  So it isn’t all that surprising that the details regarding a hugely significant one, the whistleblower complaint that the White House has directed acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph McGuire to keep from the House and Senate Intelligence Committees, are starting to surface.  The Washington Post reports and NBC confirms that the “secret” disclosed by the whistleblower to Intelligence Community Inspector General Michael Atkinson came from an intelligence officer who became alarmed after learning about what he or she concluded was a “troubling” promise made by Trump to a foreign leader during what is believed to have been a phone conversation made in August while he was at his Bedminster retreat.  It’s not clear who the call was with or what was promised but a review of Trump’s communications at the time of the call point to Trump’s good buddy Vladimir Putin. To be clear, it’s not certain that the world leader was Putin, Trump met with and/or had correspondence with other leaders during that time period including his other bestie Kim Jong un but to the extent the commitment was made via phone, the list of suspects shortens making Putin the most likely recipient of the “troubling” promise.  The Inspector General determined that the complaint was “credible” and of “urgent concern,” the legal threshold that ordinarily requires notification to the Congressional Intel committees which is why he alerted the Chairs of the House and Senate committees about the existence of the whistleblower complaint, but it’s up to the acting DNI to share the content of the complaint and at least for now, under the direction of the White House, he’s remaining silent although late yesterday House Chairman Adam Schiff who brought this issue to the public’s attention reports that he has agreed to show up to a closed door meeting of the House Intel committee next week.  As to the content of the promise and the source of the leak, at least for now those specifics remain under wraps but it’s notable that the August timing of the call in question coincides with the departure of former Director of National Security Dan Coats and his highly respected second Susan Gordon, both of whom could be possible and highly credible sources for the leak.  It was also around that time that Trump decided to move money from the defense budget to the building of his wall; notably some of that moved money had previously been allocated to bolstering European defenses against Russia, projects that really irk Putin.  As to that wall, Trump visited a section of it yesterday, launched into a soliloquy about its strength, the way the concrete was poured and was about to disclose something about its super-secret design before he was shut down by an official who said that what he was about to say wasn’t for public disclosure.  Oh, and that section that he visited, it wasn’t new, it was just one of those parts of the wall that had been recently repaired.       

The Revolving Door:  Yesterday Trump appointed Robert O’Brien as his new national security advisor.  O’Brien, who previously served as Trump’s chief hostage negotiator, was the person responsible for getting A$AP Rocky out of the clutches of not so hostile Sweden after he’d been arrested for beating someone up during a street fight. Like his most recent predecessor John Bolton, O’Brien has a reputation for being hawkish but unlike Bolton, he is also viewed as a bit more obsequious, a trait that Trump values. For his part John Bolton has already started to talk about his days at the White House. During a closed door foreign policy luncheon without specifically naming Trump he criticized his decision to invite the Taliban to Camp David as disrespectful of 9.11 victims, questioned pulling all troops from Afghanistan and blamed the recent attack on the Saudi oil installations on the failure to launch a retaliatory strike against Iran after they downed one of our drones, an opinion shared by Trump’s usual ally Senator Lindsey Graham.  Trump, who still hasn’t decided what, if anything, beyond more sanctions to do to punish Iran for the Saudi attack, responded to that criticism by blaming Bolton and Graham for getting us into the war in Iraq in the first place, a fair point.  To the extent that Trump gets around to it, he now has a few more positions to fill.  Yesterday, the seven month old nomination of Jeffrey Byard to serve as the head of FEMA was pulled over disclosures that he had been involved in a barroom altercation.  Also, the White House fired Homeland Security General Counsel John Mitnick, promoting a junior lawyer with little experience, to serve in the acting role for now or forever given this administration’s track record at filling positions.  As a result virtually everyone at Homeland is now just “acting.”       

Guns, Guns, Guns: The White House has circulated a draft of proposed background check legislation to Republican Senators for their review but since none of them are convinced that Trump would actually support it most say that they won’t even take the time to read the proposal until Trump goes on record saying that he will because they’ve got better things to do with their time.  The NRA has already said the proposal it’s a non-starter and the only person in the White House who will even admit that the draft originated in the White House is first daughter Ivanka Trump who either supports increasing background checks or thinks its good for her “brand” to say that she does.  Though it’s not clear she’s seen it, Ivanka’s views may have been influenced by a recent public service announcement released by the Sandy Hook Promise organization.  The “back to school” message shows students trying to survive a school attack using backpacks, skate boards, and sharpened pencils as defense weapons.  If you haven’t seen it, check it out, its alarming and spot on.

Footnotes:  The New York Times has come under criticism for the decision to edit out a sentence from its weekend piece about Justice Kavanaugh and his alleged sexual predations. The omitted sentence revealed that the additional woman who a credible witness insists was flashed by Kavanaugh during one of those Yale beer parties has no recollection of the event. That sentence is included in the book, “The Education of Brett Kavnaugh” that was summarized by the piece that the NY Times published.  Kavanaugh’s supporters, including Trump, have used the omission of the sentence, which has been edited back into the Times article, as proof that the piece was just another fake press hit job on Kavanaugh by the failing NY Times. The NY Times has to up its game, it’s a really bad time for sloppy editing. In other news, during a closed door meeting with members of her Democratic caucus Speaker Pelosi reportedly chastised House Judiciary Chair Jerry Nadler for getting ahead of his skis by saying that impeachment proceedings have begun.  She then said that people were welcome to leak her remarks if they wanted to.  Either there really is a bigly disagreement between the more moderate and more liberal wings of the party, or possibly, Nancy is engaged in a good cop/bad cop routine, helping committee chairs like Nadler fend off primary challenges from their left while also helping more centrist at risk Democrats maintain their seats.  In any case, Pelosi, who is known for her vote counting skills knows that though a majority of her Democratic coalition supports impeachment she doesn’t have enough votes to move forward on the House floor.  She did however say that she believes that Corey Lewandowski should be held in contempt for his recent deceptive and obstructive testimony before the House Judiciary Committee.      

California Dreamin

All the Leaves Are Brown: Corey Lewandowski testified in front of the House Judiciary Committee yesterday and, to say the least, it wasn’t pretty.  Lewandowski is known for his combative style, during the presidential campaign he physically accosted a Breitbart female reporter, so it’s no surprise that he was obnoxious and uncooperative.  He began with an opening statement  where he expressed his love for all things Trump while attacking everything about the Democrats, the Russia investigation and the hearing. Immediately after he delivered his opening remarks, Trump tweeted out his appreciation.  During one bathroom break Lewandowski had the audacity to tweet out “New website just launched to help a potential senate run. Sign up now!,” a reference to his Trump supported plan to seek the Republican nomination to run against New Hampshire’s Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen. Lewandowski didn’t deny that the Russians had tried to meddle in the 2016 election, but he of course denied there had been any Trump team collusion, instead blaming the failure to stop their interference on the Obama administration making sure to throw Joe Biden’s name in every time he cast blame on Obama because why miss an opportunity to attack Trump’s potential 2020 contender.  At one point he even deflected blame on to one of his Republican colleagues, Sam Clovis, for his failure to report one of the Russian attempts to reach out to the Trump team.  He did his best to cut into each of the Democrats’ five minutes of questioning time by refusing to even acknowledge statements he’d made to Special Counsel Mueller’s team and, citing instructions from his White House handlers, he refused to acknowledge that he and Trump ever talk to each other. He was helped out by the Republicans, particularly by Ranking Member Doug Collins who also questioned the legitimacy of the investigation and everything about the hearing process.  Collins, like the rest of the cohorts also stuck with the theme that everything was the fault of the Obama/Biden administration. For their part, Chairman Jerry Nadler and his Democratic contingent got off to a rough start, they had a hard time dealing with Lewandowski’s obstreperous antics and got blamed for their failure to adequately anticipate how difficult he would be and their inability to rein him in by the cable pundits who for some reason thought that blaming the victims, and to be clear, we are all the victims, was the right way to go. Despite his obstructive behavior, before the day was out Lewandowski admitted that he’d done all the things that he previously told Mueller that he did:  that he’d received a dictated message from Trump to direct and, if necessary threaten to fire, then Attorney General Sessions into un-recusing himself in order to fire and/or truncate Special Counsel Mueller’s investigation and that he took that dictated note and locked it in his personal safe because he knew that actually delivering it to Sessions might not be all that kosher.  Later in the day, while being professionally grilled by the Democrat’s staff lawyer he also admitted that he’d lied to the press, particularly during one interview with MSNBC’s Ari Melber,  saying sure he lied when he’d told Melber that  he didn’t remember Trump ever asking him to “get involved’ with Jeff Sessions or the Justice Department “in any way shape or form ever but since he has no obligation to be honest to the press,” who cares.  Just another technique he’s learned from his mentor Trump.  The bottom line is that the Democrats had a rough day, Trump and his buddy Lewandowski engaged in some more obstruction and neither impeachment nor an end of this nightmare is near.  And sadly Lewandowski isn’t the only one obstructing right now, the acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph McGuire announced yesterday that he has no plans to either testify or hand over the whistleblower complaint that may or may not implicate the White House in some more questionable behavior.  Just another stalemate to add to the pile.

If I Was in LA:  Trump is off to California to fundraise but not to worry, the bubbling Middle East cauldron is temporarily in the hands of his hawkish Secretary of State Pompeo who has been sent off to Saudi Arabia to get directions from Saudi Crown Prince MBS about how he’d like the US to deal with the festering Iran problem, the one Trump’s policies or lack thereof have exacerbated.  It still remains unclear whether or not Trump will opt to go to war over what most likely was an Iranian directed attack of the Saudi Arabian oil fields, something that the Saudi’s are now calling their 9.11, despite the twisted irony of the Saudis whose citizens were actually responsible for the real 9.11 calling any attack, particularly one where no one was killed, their 9.11.  While he hasn’t decided what to do next about Iran’s aggressive behavior, Trump has found a real enemy to go after at home. He’s now attacking California on all fronts.  Later today, he’s expected to revoke California’s authority to set stricter than the Federal government auto emission standards, because why would we want to clean up tailpipe pollution or have cleaner air?  It’s worth noting that thirteen other states follow California’s more restrictive standards and, for the most part, the auto companies are okay with them but Trump and his fossil fuel buddies don’t like the idea of more efficient cars so apparently it’s time for the California standards to go bye-bye.  Lawsuits, of course, will follow.  Trump is also planning to launch a war against California’s homeless population problem, a problem that California really has and one that local politicians including Governor Newsom acknowledge but one that is really hard to combat and can’t be nuked away.  California would like some real help from the Federal government including more funding for housing and social programs.  Sadly, it’s more likely that Trump, who views the problem mostly through the eyes of a real estate developer concerned about the value of his properties rather than as a bigger social problem, and his HUD Secretary Ben Carson, who’s been cutting housing assistance programs, just want to find a big warehouse somewhere to hide all of the homeless or better yet, incarcerate them in “crazy people” institutions or deport them, even the citizens among them, are unlikely to have real solutions to what is a really tough problem.  Expect lots of rhetoric, possibly even some contentious militaristic actions but no long term solution.  

Pretend to Pray:  The Israel elections are locked in a dead heat which might mean that Netanyahu’s main rival, former General Benny Gantz, will be given the first chance to try to form a government.  On the US front, the newest NBC/WSJ indicates that former VP Joe Biden’s lead has grown a little to 31%, that Senator Warren is up to an “enthusiastic” 25%, that Senator Sanders has slipped a little to 13% , that Senator Harris has slipped a lot to 5%, that Mayor Pete is static at 7% and that Andrew Yang has grown a bit to 4% while Corey Booker and Amy Klobuchar are up a tick to 2% each. It’s early, these are national polls and what matters more is how each of the candidates does in the first few state primaries.                        

Od Pa'Am (Again)

Feeling the Burn:  It’s hard to figure out what Trump plans to do about Iran and those burning Saudi Arabia oil facilities. You can tell that he fears that taking no action makes him look weak and he hates looking weak, on the other hand, despite his frequently bombastic rhetoric he doesn’t appear to have much of an appetite for war. Yesterday he revealed these contradictory views by saying "I don't want war with anybody, we have the strongest military in the world ... we're prepared, more than anybody."  He also left the impression that he’s waiting for the Saudis to tell him what they want him to do, a strategy that isn’t impressing either his allies or his critics.  Though she’s certainly not my favorite presidential wannabee, Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard’s  tweet that “Trump awaits instructions from his Saudi masters. Having our country act as Saudi Arabia's bitch is not ‘America First’” is spot on as is former Republican, now Independent Congressman Justin Amash’s tweet saying that “Congress is the body empowered to commence war. We don’t take orders from foreign powers."  As to Saudi Arabia, it’s not clear that they want us to help them launch a direct attack against Iran, yet, but some suggest that if they are, they will be more than content to let us fight on their behalf, a thought that Trump seemed to endorse yesterday when he said that if we do something the Saudis will foot the bill, as in their money for the lives of our soldiers. So who would have guessed that pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal without an alternative plan in place, something more than extreme sanctions, might not be the best way to contain Iranian aspirations and aggression?  Is it worth mentioning that Trump is now surrounded by toadies like Secretary of Pompeo, newbies like Defense Secretary Espy and lacks a national security advisor?  As to his most recent former security advisor, John Bolton, the hawk whose absence from the table right now might be a good thing given his appetite for war and regime change, reports are that he’s busy negotiating a book deal.  One other piece of international news, it’s election day in Israel, again.

2020:  On Sunday Joe Biden went to Alabama to commemorate the 56^th anniversary of the Birmingham church bombing.  He called on the “nation to live up to its founding ideals” saying that “silence on racism amounts to complicity” adding “there can be no realization of the American Dream without grappling with the original sin of slavery” before not so subtly referring to Trump with the comment that “now hate is on the rise again, and we're at a defining moment again in American history." Expect those soundbites to show up in political ads going forward.  After Alabama, Biden traveled to South Carolina, joining a number of Democratic candidates, including Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Senator Amy Klobuchar and NY Mayor Bill De Blasio, yes he’s still running, who were also campaigning in the important early primary state.  For her part Senator Elizabeth Warren who received the endorsement of the Working Families Party, the progressive group that supported Bernie Sanders in 2016, was in New York City where she delivered a speech on her newest plan, this one targeted at routing out corruption in government another dig at all things Trumpian pointedly delivered on his home turf.  Not surprisingly while Bernie’s crowd is all in on routing out corruption they’re freaking out about not getting the key Working Party endorsement.  While Elizabeth Warren was wowing the crowd in New York City, Trump was in New Mexico, an increasingly blue state with a population that is 47% Hispanic that his advisors think he can somehow or other win in 2020. He stuck to his usual themes, called the Democrats radical, claimed that they were coming for guns and were going to take away health care.  He also gave a call out to erstwhile CNN commentator Steve Cortes, one of his supporters, asking him “who do you like more, Hispanics or the country” before adding that Cortes “happens to be Hispanic, but I’ve never quite figured it out because he looks more like a WASP than I do,” because engaging in a little stereotyping and loyalty testing is the best way to sway Hispanics to his side?  It’s unlikely that Trump will win over New Mexico but with a few of his 2016 states turning blue he needs to turn a few blue states red. Whatever.

Investigatory Front:  House Judiciary Chairman Jerry Nadler says he’s too busy impeaching Trump right now to even consider impeaching Justice Kavanaugh, a thought that is also shared by some Democratic members of the Senate including Dick Durbin who responded to a question on the subject by saying “get real.” Exerting some more of that mythical executive privilege for everyone, White House lawyers are blocking the testimony of former staff members Rob Porter, the serial wife abuser, and Rick Dearborn the former deputy chief of staff.  In addition they’ve advised/warned one time Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski who was never a White House employee that he better limit his testimony to the things he told former Special Counsel Mueller because as far as they’re concerned everything else he ever discussed with Trump is off limits, also covered by that mythical form of executive immunity. Lewandowski’s testimony is of concern because according to the Mueller Report, when everyone else refused to do it, Trump asked Lewandowski to threaten to fire former Attorney General Sessions if he didn't act to end the Mueller investigation. On the tax returns front, the Manhattan District Attorney has joined the crowd seeking Trump’s tax returns by subpoenaing eight years of his and his company’s tax filings.  It’s fair to assume that another legal fight is in the offing because we all know that Trump values the secrecy of those returns more than anything else.  A few other things, as far as we know former acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe has not yet been indicted despite the best attempts of Attorney General Barr and Trump’s Justice Department.  The former Russian spy whose identity was revealed last week, the one who has been moved away from Washington to some new safer location, was the person who revealed Putin’s direct involvement in Russia’s pro-Trump election interference to the intelligence agencies which of course raises additional questions about who blew his cover especially in light of the still mysterious whistleblower information that is being kept secret  by the Justice Department on behalf of the White House from the House and Senate Intelligence committees.  Just a little conspiracy theory to nosh on with your morning coffee.     

Blame it on the Bulbs

Locked and Loaded:  On Saturday drones and possibly missiles were launched at two major oil installations in Saudi Arabia taking out 5.7 million gallons or 50% of the country’s daily production capability, an amount equal to +/- 6% of global oil output.  Although the Saudis expect to get 2 million gallons of their production capability back on line quickly and Trump has already said that he is prepared to tap US reserves to help fill the gap, this morning oil futures are up around 9% reflecting concerns over supply and regional stability.  The big question now is determining who was responsible for the attack and how, if at all, Trump and/or Saudi Arabia should retaliate.  Although Saudi Arabia’s foes, the Yemeni Houthi rebels, took responsibility for the attack, Trump and Secretary of State Pompeo were quick to point the finger at Iran, a supporter of the Houthi’s and frequently their partner in crime.  The Saudis, with the help of US arms and air support, and the Houthi’s, with the aid of the Iranians, have been fighting a particularly lethal war proxy war, one that has involved the deaths of many Houthi civilians, so it’s quite possible, that Iran helped with the attacks and at the very least they probably provided the firepower.  Additionally despite the Houthi’s assertion that it was their drones that took out the Saudi oil fields, questions have been raised about their ability to have launched such an effective attack without the aid of the Iranians.  For their part the Iranians have denied any involvement which means little because they always deny involvement.  The timing of this assault is awkward at best for Trump, he fired national security advisor John Bolton in part because the two disagreed on Iran strategy.  Bolton wanted to continue with the maximum sanction policy that Trump had put into place following his decision to pull the US from the JCPOA Iran nuclear agreement; Trump wants, or at least until Saturday morning’s attack, wanted to meet with Iranian President Rouhani to discuss the possibility of a “new” nuclear agreement and had even expressed an interest in participating in the $15 billion line of credit that French President Macron had offered up as an incentive to get Iran back to the negotiating table. In fact, last week before the attacks, both Secretary of State Pompeo and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin represented that Trump was interested in meeting with Rouhani, with no preconditions, during the upcoming New York UN meetings, something that Trump had also said and tweeted.  Now Trump says that assertions he was interested in meeting with Rouhani are “incorrect statements” put out by the “fake news.” Further he’s now beating war drums, tweeting that “there is reason to believe that we know the culprit,” his way of saying that he is sure that it is Iran; that we are “locked and loaded depending on verification,” verification from the Saudis not US intelligence experts; and that he will then determine “under what terms we would proceed!” as in he may be on the verge of moving forward with a retaliatory attack, without the support of Congress.  We’ve been lied into war by other presidents but never by someone this obviously deceptive and irrational.  It’s fair to believe that if Trump acts on his impulses, this won’t end well.  The Iran/Saudi Arabia/Houthi mess isn’t the only Middle East situation raising eyebrows right now.  Israel’s redo election is scheduled to take place tomorrow.  In an effort to solidify the ultra-right flank of his already very rightwing coalition, Prime Minister Netanyahu now says that he plans to annex the Jordan Valley and all of the West Bank Settlements.  He’s made similar assertions in the run up to previous elections so it’s not clear what he would actually do but this time he has a US president on his side so this could be more than just an empty campaign pledge.  For his part Trump is publicly teasing entering into a mutual defense treaty with Israel, an obvious ploy to help his good friend Bibi win the election because interfering in other countries elections is kosher. Right? Oy.

Beer, Beer, Beer: Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh is back in the headlines and not in a good way.  The New York Times reports something that we all kind of suspected, that the investigation into his beer “induced” sexual predatory behavior was just a smoke and mirrors charade.  Two New York Times reporters who have spent the past year writing a book about the whole Kavanaugh affair assert that the FBI follow-up investigation into Kavanaugh’s misdeeds was superficial at best and that no one from the FBI actually contacted or interviewed any of the at least seven people who could have corroborated the accusations of his second accuser, fellow Yale student Deborah Ramirez.  Ramirez is the accuser who claimed that Kavanaugh pushed his private parts onto her during one of those beer infused Yale parties.  The Times reporters provide additional information about still another party where Kavanaugh engaged in another similar display of his manhood with still another Yale student; that incident was recounted by Max Stier, also a Yale grad, who is now the respected  head of a Washington DC based non-profit.  At the time of the hearings, Stier reported what he witnessed to several Senators and the FBI but no one seemed all that interested in pursuing the matter because, why would they?  Responses to the article have been as expected. Moscow/Mitch McConnell tweeted that these are just more “uncorroborated and unsubstantiated“ accusations from those crazy frustrated liberal Democrats looking to revisit a “dark and embarrassing” time for the Senate.  Trump tweeted that “Brett Kavanaugh should start suing people for liable, or the Justice Department should come to his rescue.” He later changed that to “libel” but whatever, we all get the point.  A few Democratic presidential candidates including Kamala Harris, Julian Castro, Elizabeth Warren, Beto O’Rourke and Pete Buttigieg are calling for Kavanaugh’s impeachment and a few others including Amy Klobuchar and Joe Biden are calling for further investigation.  No comments from Senator Susan Collins but somewhere she could be or should be clutching her pearls and wringing her hands.  No comment also from Kavanaugh.  As to Beto O’Rourke, comments on his call for the mandatory buyback of AR 15s and AK 47s have been all over the place too.  One Texas legislator told him to try to “come get my AR 15,” prompting Beto to report the taunt as a threat and some Democrats have raised concerns that he’s just given Republicans a good “Democrats are coming for your guns” talking point for the 2020 election but Beto has doubled down saying the time has come to act, something Trump is still asserting he will do at some point this week, or not.   On the election front, Joe Biden’s gaffes and his jumbled response to a question about racial inequality, particularly his suggestion that parents play record players to their kids have also generated criticism both because of claims that he was being patronizing and because of his old school choice of a record player.  Apparently his critics don’t know that turntables, like older politicians are very in these days, maybe. Biden’s gaffes aside, Julian Castro has learned the hard way that going after the former VP comes with costs, he lost an endorsement from one Texas Democrat, Congressman Vincente Gonzalez, who switched over to Biden’s team.

Footnotes: House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff is raising alarms over a whistleblower report that may implicate someone in the White House, perhaps Trump, in some kind of questionable activity.  Apparently credible whistleblower reports are supposed to be shared with the relevant committee but the Justice Department is sitting on this one even though the Intelligence Community Inspector General says that it is credible, claiming some kind of executive privilege, an implication that it does involve either Trump, his office or both. Expect to learn more about this soon especially if the whistleblower decides to go public.  In other news, Ivanka Trump told a group of Republican donors that she inherited her moral compass from her father and at a different event her “moral compass” told donors that  energy saving light bulbs are the reason that he always looks orange, not that fake tan stuff, the light bulbs, the ones that he wants replaced with the older, less efficient ones. So the leader who may be about to launch an attack against Iran based on information provided by Saudi Arabia, the country where journalists get tortured and chopped into very little pieces for speaking truth believes that light bulbs are his enemy.           

Don't Drink the Water

Debate Dump:  The debate was long but this time there were many eye catching, or rather ear ringing moments.  My take is that it’s time for Julian Castro to be voted off the stage. In an effort to break out from the 1% pack, he launched into an attack of Joe Biden, claiming that the former VP had said something about whether there would be automatic enrollment in his health care plan that the VP hadn’t said; Biden was  vindicated by the video tape after the debate ended.  Castro went so far as to say that Biden couldn’t remember what he had just said, more than implying that the former VP’s memory lapse, which as it turns out wasn’t a lapse, was due to his advanced age. Note to Castro, if you are going to aggressively attack a likeable, albeit gaffe prone candidate, a risky tactic that can easily backfire, at the very least get your facts straight.  I was similarly unimpressed by entrepreneur Andrew Yang, the generally amiable techie, who opened by saying that in order to prove the value of his $1000 per month universal basic income plan, his campaign planned to randomly select ten families and give them a total of $120,000 over the next year.  His attention grabbing gimmick which, unfortunately for him, followed Senator Amy Klobuchar’s opening remarks where she said that it was time to stop treating the presidency like a gameshow came off a little too much like an episode of “The Price is Right” and may actually violate campaign finance laws. Yang’s later joke that he knew a lot about health care because as an Asian he knew a lot of doctors also fell flat. Much of the beginning of the debate was spent arguing about health care with the differences between the moderates, a group that includes Biden, Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke and Mayor Buttigieg, and their let’s just fix Obamacare plan versus the more left wing crowd, a group led by Senators Sanders and Warren, and their let’s throw out the old and go with a Medicare for All approach ASAP, were stark and that’s okay because at least everyone on the stage believes in health care as a right, a distinction from their Republican counterpart who just wants to get rid of Obamacare and has still not suggested what, if anything, he’ll offer up as a replacement.  On the health care front, neither Sanders nor Warren would acknowledge that their plan might be prohibitively expensive, although Bernie, who proudly shouted (why does he always shout?) was more upfront about costs than Warren and both had no problem with the idea that those happy with their private plans would lose them, a bigly problem for the moderates who fear that the elimination of private plans would turn off some voters, especially union members who fought hard for their plans.  As to Bernie, though Castro tried hard to paint Biden as the old guy, it was Bernie who came off looking old last night.  His words weren’t garbled and his brain appeared to be as sharp as ever, but his face wore the look of an embattled and shriveled warrior who couldn’t get over the frustration that his ideas were gaining traction in the hands of other candidates, most notably the not so young Elizabeth Warren, who looks much better than him, who, though she didn’t get as much speaking time as some of the others, managed to maintain her composure and speak clearly when she did even if not all of her plans are feasible or affordable. Among the others, there were no obvious gaffes, they came off qualified to serve and some of them probably will, either as the VP candidate or back in the Senate or in the cabinet of whomever wins the nomination, assuming that person also manages to beat Trump and get him to leave the White House in 2020.  Most notably Beto found his footing again, and while his strong position on guns and his promise to get rid of AK 47s and AR 15s probably enrages a number of gun enthusiasts, particularly those wed to their arsenals of automatic weapons, they probably weren’t planning to vote blue anyway which is why Trump, who keeps promising to do something about guns, still hasn’t because those are his voters and he wants to keep them.  As usual Pete Buttigieg, who managed to speak more this time around, came off smart, balanced and competent.  Both he and Klobuchar get gold stars for pushing back at Castro’s attack dog routine.  Buttigieg was on point when his mocked Trump’s earlier snide question “could anyone imagine Buttigieg cutting a deal with Chinese president Xi” by pointing out that Trump has had almost three years and has failed to do so. Senator Kamala Harris had a good night too, she focused on attacking Trump rather than going after Biden, and was far more coherent this time around.  Cory Booker also stayed in the plus column, he always comes off as a little too earnest but earnest is far better than dishonest and crazy which is what we’ve got right now.  Bottom line is that, like them or not, all of these men and women would be better and more rational than Trump, though some would be better than others and it is time for some of them (hint, hint Yang and Castro) to drop out of the running.

What Else?  The Democrats formally initiated an “impeachment” inquiry yesterday with House Judiciary Chair Jerry Nadler saying “Some call this process an impeachment inquiry. Some call it an impeachment investigation. There is no legal difference between these terms, and I no longer care to argue about the nomenclature."  Whatever it is, the Democrats hope that it will help them force more testimony from some of those uncooperative Trumpies while also helping them get their hands on the information that they haven’t been able to get to date.  Something is up on the Andrew McCabe front.  It looks like the Justice Department has decided to indict the Former Acting FBI Director, or at the very least is trying to indict him, for “lying” about his conversations with the press, conversations that he was allowed to have. They’ve called their Grand Jury back into service but may be having trouble convincing what may be a fairly skeptical group of Washington DC jurors that the indictment isn’t just a political hit on McCabe who Trump has called treasonous and an enemy.  In any case, if McCabe is indicted Trump’s many anti-McCabe tweets will be submitted as evidence so convicting McCabe won’t be easy. Under pressure from a bipartisan group of senators, Trump has finally decided to stop sitting on aid already committed to Ukraine, the money he was holding back in what was looking like an effort to get Ukrainian leadership to share dirt, real or imagined, on the Biden family with Rudy Giuliani.  After denying that the long term Russian spy exfiltrated  by the CIA back into the US had been anyone important or even had been close enough to Putin to do any damage, the Russians have now asked Interpol to issue a Red Notice so that they can “find” him and send him back to mother Russia.  And lastly, the Trump administration rolled back some Obama era clean water protections because who needs clean water anyway?