Absurdistan

Ukraine, Ukraine, Biden: The big story of the weekend should have been that Trump is accelerating arms sales and moving more US troops to Saudi Arabia but instead the focus was on Trump’s Ukraine fiasco and his team’s concerted effort to deflect blame for his newest really bad actions on to former VP Joe Biden, the Democratic rival that outpolls him in most of those crucial swing states that went his way in 2016.  It’s probably no coincidence that Trump started to put the squeeze on Ukraine’s new President Volodymyr Zelensky almost immediately after Special Counsel Mueller's muted testimony about the results of his Russia Report. Feeling emboldened by the lack of consequences from getting Russian help during the last election he probably figured that seeking out or, in this case, demanding help from Ukraine during the 2020 election cycle wouldn’t have consequences either.  To be sure, he hadn’t anticipated that there would be whistleblower in the wings ready to tell all about how he’d pressured Zelensky to fabricate dirt on Joe Biden or face losing crucial aid but, to borrow a phrase from Elizabeth Warren, he's got a plan for that.  That plan, which has been playing out all weekend in real time, follows the usual Trump playbook:  deny then admit the offense, claim the offense is a legitimate presidential prerogative, attack the deep state for revealing the offense and blame a rival for doing something far worse.  The first step involved Rudy Giuliani’s alcohol enhanced spiel on Chris Cuomo’s CNN show, the one where he admitted that there had been Zelensky arm twisting and that he had helped, and so what. The next step involved Trump’s admission that he had talked with Zelensky, that the call had been fabulous but that it was unconscionable that someone from the deep state, obviously a Trump hating, devious Democrat, had listened in and had complained about what he shouldn’t have overheard in the first place and that the real problem was Joe Biden and his criminal son. As usual the next step involved commanding appearances by the usual cast of cabinet characters, including Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Secretary of State Pompeo, sending them out to the Sunday talk shows to deny that Trump had done anything inappropriate while at the same time having them attack the Bidens as the real crime family.  As to Joe Biden and his son Hunter, there is no there, there. In a nutshell, back when he was president Obama sent Joe Biden to Ukraine to encourage the country to fight corruption.  In that capacity Biden pushed Ukraine’s leadership to fire their ineffectual, corrupt General Prosecutor who was then fired.  Around that time Hunter Biden starting serving on the board of a Ukrainian gas extraction company, optically problematic but something that the Obama White House concluded was not a conflict of interest because Hunter was a private citizen.  Anyway both of the Bidens’ roles have been investigated to death by anyone and everyone trying to throw dirt at Biden, including virtually every media outlet and the conclusion has been and continues to be that everything was legit and that Joe Biden pushing the General Prosecutor to resign, widely seen by other western allies as a good thing, was the right action to take.  It was particularly disgraceful to watch Pompeo, Mnuchin and Giuliani sling mud Biden’s way on this weekend’s news shows. You could tell by the looks on Pompeo and Mnuchin’s faces that they both knew that they were aiding and abetting another Trump crime, not that anyone’s counting anymore.  For his part Giuliani looked like he was enjoying himself.  Mnuchin looked particularly distressed when CNN’s Jake Tapper asked him why Hunter Biden’s business dealings were a problem when Trump’s kids’ weren’t.  Mnuchin looked like he wanted to dive under the desk and he probably should have.  Later when asked if Trump’s plan to stay away from this week’s planned UN climate change meetings was a bad thing for the earth and future generations, the best Mnuchin could come up with was that when he lived in California he drove a Tesla.  Back to the Ukraine affair, Trump claims that he is now seriously considering releasing the transcript of his call or calls with Zelensky, the calls where the Wall Street Journal reports he pushed Zelensky at least eight times to come up with Biden dirt, so that everyone can see that nothing inappropriate was discussed.  He’ll likely to that right after they are “acid washed” to borrow one of his favorite phrases, or after he releases his tax returns, right?  On the Democratic side, calls for impeachment are reaching a crescendo, even House Intel chief Adam Schiff who rarely sneezes without Speaker Pelosi’s permission acknowledges that the Ukraine stuff could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.  And back to the camels and the desert, next time Iran goes after Saudi interests, and there probably will be a next time, with more US troops in the region, they just might find it hard to avoid killing one or more.  If US lives are lost, Trump who to date has shown remarkable restraint given his hawkish advisors and his own impulse control problems, might finally push a button or two, and unlike last time, when he pulled back at the very last minute from striking the Iranians for the downing of one of our drones, he might just let a counterattack go forward.  Besides by then he might decide that his campaign might need a little bit of that “wag the dog” stuff.

2020:  A lot of noise this weekend about Senator Elizabeth Warren’s ascending poll numbers, particularly her improving Iowa poll position where her 22% share now has her in a statistical tie with Biden who stands at 20%.  Bernie Sanders has “faded” to 11% with Buttigieg at 9% and Harris at 6%.  The Iowa caucuses don’t take place until February so there’s plenty of time for shifting back and forth as the pollsters also report that many respondents still aren’t strongly committed.  That said, though Iowa has, or at least currently has two Republican Senators and the state voted for Trump in 2016, the state’s Democrats are a fairly liberal bunch.  It’s not all that surprising that Warren, who allocated resources to the state early is doing well there and it’s not yet clear what winning Iowa will mean.  Senator Cory Booker who is having trouble gaining traction also appears to be facing financial headwinds. Though he’s qualified for the stage for the next set of debates, he was out over the weekend pleading with his supporters to send cash or else.  In other election news, AXIOS reports that Trump’s threat to start banning certain vaping products to protect the lives of children like Melania’s son Barron may be following the trajectory of his oft promised support for gun control legislation.  Apparently, his pollsters have advised him that Trump-leaning vapers in swing states will pull their support if he pulls their products from the store shelves.  Personally, that sounds absurd to me but what do I know?