Impartial Justice?

Impeachment Week:  While Trump’s most avid supporters, most notably Senators Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz, were out and about this weekend defending his Ukraine related actions as “perfect” and the whole impeachment process as partisan hogwash the House Judiciary Committee finalized and delivered its impeachment report to the whole House in anticipation of this week’s planned impeachment vote.  Regarding the vote, it’s still not clear how many Democrats will vote against impeachment, but it’s expected that one of the two who voted against the impeachment inquiry, NJ Representative Jeff Van Drew, will switch to the Republican Party. It’s worth noting that Van Drew is significantly underwater in his “lean Republican” district largely as a result of his decision to vote against impeachment inquiry so his move reflects a desperate attempt to preserve his seat rather than a sudden love for all things Republican.  It’s unlikely that joining the GOP will save his hide, nor is it impressing his staff, five of whom have already jumped ship, but it will provide Trump with a great PR moment.  Over the weekend, a number of the most exposed “newbie” Democrats showed more spine, announcing that they will be voting for impeachment with some of them pushing for former Republican Justin Amash to be named one of Pelosi’s designated impeachment managers, a counter to Van Drew’s party shift and a way of saying FU to Trump. As to Trump’s fanboys, Senator Graham reiterated his oft expressed affection for all things Trump by saying "I am trying to give a pretty clear signal I have made up my mind. I'm not trying to pretend to be a fair juror here” calling the impeachment “just a partisan nonsense" while Cruz, expressed his undying support for Trump by resorting to a series of lies, not all that surprising given that he’s widely known for his mendacious speechifying.  Though Cruz and Graham’s loyalty oaths weren’t all that surprising, it was disappointing to see Texas Congressman Will Hurd who should really know better speak out against impeachment too especially since he admits that Trump’s actions were far from “perfect.”  Could there be a job waiting for him at a Republican thinktank after he leaves Congress next year? 

Senate in the New Year: On the leadership front, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell let it be known that he is working hand in glove with White House Counsel Pat Cipollone, saying "Everything I do during this I'm coordinating with the White House counsel,” adding that there will be no difference between his and Trump’s impeachment position.  That McConnell is working with the White House isn’t surprising, but his public statements about it are,  but then again McConnell needs Trump’s support both for his own Kentucky reelection and to retain Senate control.   McConnell wants to shorten the Senate trial, anticipated for January, as much as possible but to do that he’ll first have to agree on terms with Democratic leader Chuck Schumer who over the weekend sent a letter with his requests to McConnell.  In that letter, Schumer asked that four witnesses be called to testify.  Specifically, he wants to hear from Acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, former national security advisor John Bolton, Mulvaney’s senior adviser Robert Blair and OMB official Michael Duffey.  Schumer also wants a pile of the documents that the House previously requested but that the White House refused to deliver. Though McConnell runs the Senate he’ll have to put a lot of process decisions, including witness requests, up for a vote and since he doesn’t have a Speaker Pelosi sized majority and, as an interested party, VP Pence is not allowed to vote on impeachment things, McConnell will probably have to agree to some of Schumer’s requests or risk losing some of those few Republican Senators who either truly want a fair trial or who need to appear to want a fair trial in order to win their upcoming elections.  In addition to Senators Mitt Romney and Susan Collins, that crowd is likely to include Iowa’s Senator Ernst, Colorado’s Senator Gardner, North Carolina’s Senator Tillis, Arizona’s McSally, and a few others like Alaska’s Murkowski and Tennessee’s Alexander.  To be clear, it would be an unreachable reach for all, or maybe even any, of them to vote to impeach Trump but they might conclude that it’s in their best interests to look like they are honoring the oath to “do impartial justice” that they will be taking at the beginning of the hearing. As to that oath Graham, Cruz and McConnell will all be lying the second they take it.               

Taxes and Tidbits:  On Friday, the Supreme Court agreed to hear Trump v Mazars, the case involving whether House investigators may obtain Trump’s financial records from Trump’s accounting firm. The Mazars case will be heard alongside two other tax related cases, Trump v Vance and Trump v Deutsche Bank.  The cases will be heard in March with the results expected by the end of June right smack in the middle of election season. If Trump is hiding something bigly, that timing will be particularly inconvenient for him but then again he does appear to be protected by either super strength Teflon, Putin or both.  A skeptical person might think that Trump has reasons to expect that his stacked Supreme Court will tilt his way.  Here’s to hoping that the skeptics are wrong.  Former FBI Director Comey went on Fox TV this weekend and admitted to Chris Wallace that he’d been wrong about the FISA process, that  he had been “overconfident in the procedures that the FBI and Justice had built over 20 years” and “thought they were robust enough,” adding “there was real sloppiness.” Trump, unfamiliar with the concept of remorse and the admission of mistakes, immediately tweeted “So now Comey’s admitting he was wrong. Wow, but he’s only doing so because he got caught red handed. He was actually caught a long time ago. So what are the consequences for his unlawful conduct. Could it be years in jail?”  Speaking of jail, Trump’s current lawyer/fixer Rudy Giuliani isn’t there yet, but he continues to skate on thin ice.  Nevertheless, he visited the White House on Friday though it’s not clear if he was just trolling and just visiting his son Andrew on bring your parents to work day or whether he actually had a meeting with his client Trump. Also trolling, but with nukes, is North Korean leader Kim Jong un, he’s promised to deliver a big holiday present to Trump, either a boast or something along the lines of placing a “little rocket man” satellite into orbit. Lastly, the first “phase” trade deal with China has been agreed to although the details remain somewhat vague, with the Wall Street Journal and Trump’s trade advisor Lighthizer having a public disagreement on its terms.  

The Democrats:  For what it’s worth last week’s Emerson College Poll, shows that with 23% of the vote former VP Biden now has a small lead in the Iowa Caucus. Bernie Sanders is next with 22%, followed by Pete Buttigieg with 18%.  Elizabeth Warren is down to 12% and slow but steady Amy Klobuchar is now in the double digits at 10%.  Another debate is supposed to take place on Thursday except that it might not because all seven of the participating qualifiers (Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Warren, Yang, and Steyer)  as well as the DNC are on record saying that they won’t cross the picket lines set up by union workers who are involved in a contract dispute at Loyola Marymount University, the planned site of the debate.  Senator Cory Booker who has not qualified for the debate stage because his poll numbers are in the toilet, has rallied his opponents to support his request to the DNC, to loosen up the qualification criteria for January and February to allow a candidate that meets either the polling or funding thresholds but not both, to qualify.  His argument is that the Democratic stage needs more minority representation and that having one Asian, Andrew Yang, doesn’t suffice.  At least so far, it doesn’t appear that DNC Chairman Tom Perez is persuaded by his argument.  For the record, Bloomberg’s poll numbers are now hovering around 5%. He doesn’t meet the funding requirements because he’s self-funding, but would his poll numbers then get him on the stage?  I don’t know the answer to that, but it would make for an interesting unintended consequence.