Sighs of Delusion 😱 ✡️🌻😱 💣🚀 🛩️✈️

Fog of War: Monday morning the oil and stock markets rallied after Trump said that since he was having productive conversations with someone in Iranian leadership he would hold off on the bigly attacks on Iran’s infrastructure that he had threatened over the weekend. Everyone breathed a sigh of delusion, ignoring for the moment that missiles are still flying and hitting targets and killing people across the region; that Trump and War/Beer Pete are still sending in more troops; and that Trump couldn’t identify who in Iran he was “talking” with, or maybe someone like Real Estate buddy Witkoff or son in law Jared may or may not be talking with. That Iranian person may or may not be someone in Iranian leadership who, if he is talking, is probably talking through a Pakistani intermediary, he may or may not be Speaker of Iran’s parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf who may or may not have the authority to negotiate on behalf of Iran’s injured hidden Ayatollah and/or the IRGC, the group that appears to making military decisions. Yesterday, Trump asserted that the Iranians had given him a gift, but no one knows what he is talking about. He also said that he’s presented the Iranians with fifteen demands but couldn’t name them and a few senior Iranians keep posting disparaging, mocking notes on social media. Despite the conflicting messaging, the markets, though still volatile, are still wishfully breathing signs of delusion. Adding to the fog, late yesterday, multiple media outlets reported that the US is deploying roughly 2,000 paratroopers from the elite 82nd Airborne Division's "Immediate Response Force" to the Middle East. This morning the WSJ reports that officials from Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan are pushing for talks between Iran and the US to begin on Thursday while also reporting that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel are pushing for Trump to continue fighting. Bottom line, there is no bottom line.   

Airport Mess:  The skies aren’t much clearer at the airports. For much of yesterday, Republican leadership thought they were close to finalizing a deal to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) including the beleaguered and increasingly short-staffed Transportation Security Administration (TSA) whose agents are currently working without pay. The deal would have funded all of DHS except for ICE whose agents, including the ones mostly lolling around airports chugging coffee, are currently being paid since last year’s Big Ugly Bill funded ICE through 2029. The Republican plan called for future funding for ICE to be provided in a reconciliation bill that would also provide funding for the Iran war and those parts of the voter squelching SAVE Act that they could get past the Senate Parliamentarian. Reconciliation bills require only 51 votes for passage rather than the 60 required for other legislation so they’re easier to pass, however, by Senate rules, they are only supposed to include finance related provisions which in theory should mean that parts of what’s in the SAVE Act wouldn’t or shouldn’t pass muster with the parliamentarian who gets to decide what qualifies.  By funding ICE separately and sticking in some SAVE Act provisions, Senate Leader Thune’s plan was to sidestep the reforms about warrants and agent masking that Democrats are demanding while also satisfying Trump’s demands that the SAVE Act which he believes will improve the Republicans chances of holding on in the midterms and all subsequent elections be passed ASAP. Last night Democratic leadership rejected Thune’s plan, calling it out for what it was, a back door to avoiding ICE reforms with a SAVE kicker.  Notably, it wasn’t clear that Trump would have been satisfied with Thune’s plan. In any case, it’s back to the drawing board for Thune. Airport lines will remain long and Trump who ironically voted by mail in yesterday’s Florida special election even though he was at Mar a Lago during much of the early voting period continues to insist that vote by mail should be mostly outlawed. It turns out that Trump’s vote didn’t matter yesterday. The Republican candidate he endorsed and presumably voted for lost to Democrat Emily Gregory who flipped his hometown red district blue.  She will now represent Palm Beach County, including Mar a Lago, in the Florida State House.  By the way, those ICE agents at airports, according to Steve Bannon they’re presence is a dry run for the upcoming elections.

More 💩:  To avoid complying with the recent court ruling that put the kibosh on War/Beer Pete’s banning of mainstream media from attending Pentagon press conferences and otherwise hanging out at the Pentagon, Petty Pete has moved all of the press, including his rightwing friends like Laura Loomer and Matt Gaetz, into a separate unconnected annex. Makes one wonder whether Pete is just being petty or if he really, really has something to hide.  Probably both.  The Trump administration is paying $1 billion to French company TotalEnergies to get it to walk away from two US offshore wind leases to instead focus on fossil fuel options because, really, who needs alternative energy when relying on oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz is such an attractive option and anyway Trump hates windmills even more than he hates electric cars. Though the war has distracted somewhat from all things Epstein, more Epstein news keeps seeping through anyway including reports that the $170 million that investor Leon Black paid Epstein for tax and estate planning included payoffs to several women. In legal news, NJ finally has a US Attorney and it’s not Alina Habba. The DOJ has agreed to allow Robert Frazer, an experienced career prosecutor who was appointed by the state’s district court judges to remain in place because even AG Bondi recognizes that letting criminals evade prosecution because of lack of leadership was a bad look.  It’s not clear yet, if the DOJ will let district judge appointments stand in other disputed parts of the country.  Lastly, Markwayne Mullin is now confirmed as DHS Secretary. He’s no more qualified than ICE Barbie but that’s the point.