Cable Therapy

Talking Tariffs:  The stock markets recovered some of their losses yesterday leading Trump to assert that concerns that the aluminum and steel tariffs that he proposed last week would tank the market and stall economic growth are misplaced.  Despite Trump’s not so astute conclusion, it’s more likely that the markets traded up over expectations that he will back off or, at the very least, grant exceptions to many of the countries affected by his tariff plan.  House Speaker Ryan, whose general practice is to smile and shrug his shoulders whenever Trump does or says something really awful finally found his voice, or at least  was pressured by his conservative pro free trade benefactors to find his voice.  His spokesperson released a statement saying "We are extremely worried about the consequences of a trade war and are urging the White House to not advance with this plan.  The new tax reform law has boosted the economy and we certainly don't want to jeopardize those gains.”  Economic advisor Gary Cohn, the guy always threatening to quit, hasn’t left yet but is in the process of organizing meetings between Trump and leaders from the industries that will be most negatively impacted by the proposed tariffs in the hope of convincing Trump to modify his plan.  As to the tariffs, they may be unconstitutional since the right to impose tariffs resides with Congress except in the case of  national security.  Given that the biggest exporters of steel to the US are Canada, Europe, Japan and South Korea, who despite Trump’s best efforts are still our allies, it’s hard to argue convincingly that our security is threatened.  Despite the case against tariffs, Trump loves them and is looking for any excuse to justify their imposition, so yesterday he modified his stance by tying tariffs to the ongoing NAFTA negotiations with Mexico and Canada, saying that he will impose high tariffs on trade with them unless they agree to more US friendly terms.  Unless Trump finds another shiny object to focus on soon, he will probably go with some version of his tariff plan, but one with enough exceptions to make it far less damaging, at least that’s what the markets want to believe.         

Russia, Russia, Russia:  Yesterday, The New Yorker magazine published an article about Christopher Steele, the former MI 16 agent behind the infamous Steele Dossier.  The article, which reads like a John Le Carre spy novella, provides a few new wrinkles to the Trump-Russia story.  Steele’s interest in Russian election meddling predates his assignment to research Trump’s Russian connections.  In the context of an earlier assignment he had already become somewhat of an expert  on Russia’s election meddling activities, leading him to conclude that Putin was engaging in election interference throughout Europe in an effort to foster discord by disrupting European unity, so when he started to uncover evidence that Russia was meddling in the US election he became that much more concerned.  Not only didn’t he know that he was working on behalf of the Democrats but apparently few in the Democratic hierarchy or within Hillary’s campaign knew about his work or his conclusions which explains why his belief that the Kremlin was acting on behalf of the Trump campaign wasn’t broadcasted during the campaign.  Apparently, Obama and Biden were stunned when, after the election, then FBI director Comey reviewed Steele’s work and showed them his dossier.  Not only did the FBI respect Steele but they knew and had worked with many of his sources.  For his part, Steele was so upset by Trump’s electoral victory that he continued to probe and supplement the original dossier even after the election, the article reports that he learned from one of his Russian contacts that the Kremlin put the kibosh on the selection of the historically tough on Russia Mitt Romney as Secretary of State.  Putin was much happier with Rex Tillerson, the former Exxon guy who he had once graced with a friend of Russia medal and the guy who still hasn’t spent any of the $120 million allocated to the State Department for the fight against election interference.  When Fusion GPS co-founder Glenn Simpson testified before the intelligence committees he mentioned that at least one Russian had died as a result of the publication of the dossier.  Though the author of the New Yorker article couldn’t confirm who was killed, she believes that Simpson is correct, at least one of the Steele’s sources lost his life.  In light of yesterday’s news that former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal may have fallen victim in London to another Russian poison attack, the likelihood that a Steele source was killed is that much more believable.

More March Madness:  Yesterday, former Trump campaign aide Sam Nunberg had a very public panic attack on cable TV.  Nunberg, who had spent hours with Special Counsel Mueller’s team and then gone on TV to talk about his interview, is now the recipient of a subpoena to testify in front of one of Mueller’s grand juries.  The subpoena also requires that he supply years of his email correspondance with Trump, and a large number of his aides and advisors.  Nunberg never worked at the White House, he was fired from the Trump campaign team in August 2015 after some of his racist social media postings surfaced.  The talkative Nunberg was later sued by Trump for violating a nondisclosure agreement, though that suit was settled quickly.  Despite his early departure and dispute with Trump, Nunberg still communicates with members of the Trump diaspora.  He is particularly close with Steve Bannon and Roger Stone, who he refers to as his mentor and father figure.  Nunberg appears totally freaked out by the thought that someone is going see his emails, especially the ones between him, Stone and Bannon.  Yesterday, he said that he’s pretty sure that some members of the Trump team did collude with the Russians, he specifically slammed Carter Page and has previously said that there is no way that Trump Jr didn’t tell his father about the Trump tower meeting with Russian lawyer Veselnitskaya the day that it took place. He doesn’t seem to care all that much about what happens to Trump but he is very protective of Stone and seems convinced that his emails and testimony will implicate him.  For his part Stone has previously acknowledged and then denied that he had direct contact with WikiLeaks and is likely being investigated for helping to disseminate the Podesta and DNC emails and for possibly being the connection between Trump and the emails.  Anyway, after spending hours telling anyone and everyone on CNN and MSNBC that he wouldn’t respond to the Mueller subpoena, that he wouldn’t release the requested emails or testify, he backed off, possibly after a number of the TV anchors convinced him that he wouldn’t look good in orange.  Who needs therapy when you can work out your demons on cable TV?

Other News:  Republican Senator Thad Cochran, who has been too sick to spend much time in the Senate, has finally admitted that he is too sick to serve.  He plans to step down April 1, leaving the Republican majority short another seat at least until a temporary place filler is appointed by the Republican governor of Mississippi.  Mississippi’s other Republican senator, Roger Wicker, is up for reelection in November and is facing a challenge from Chris McDaniel, a right wing tea party candidate.  Now there will be two elections, a regular one for Wicker’s seat and a special election for Cochran’s seat.  The special election is a free for all run off where candidates don’t get to indicate their party affiliation on the ballot, so though it’s likely that another Republican will win, the FiveThirtyEight political prognisticators say its also possible, though less likely, that a Democrat could win.  Elections are complicated and unpredictable.