Steel Magnolias?

Mercurial Trump:  The guy who Lindsey Graham called Tuesday Trump after he supported Dreamer legislation on a Tuesday only to retract his position hours later, made a brief appearance this week. Sounding serious about passing real gun control legislation, he chided House and Senate Republicans, telling them to stand up to the NRA.  That guy is gone.  Last night Trump met with Chris Cox, the chief lobbyist for the NRA.  After the meeting Cox tweeted “POTUS and VPOTUS support the Second Amendment. Support strong due process and don’t want gun control #NRA #MAGA” and Trump tweeted “Good meeting in the Oval Office tonight with the NRA!”  Trump’s brief flirtation with rational gun policy is over, he’s back to towing the NRA party line.  In that regard he has the support of Republican leaders Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan, neither of whom were on board for doing much about guns anyway.  McConnell had already announced plans to defer gun legislation to some future unspecified week, he plans to focus on a banking bill next week.  Just about the only thing that the NRA supports is the “hardening” of schools, a regulatory ban of bump stocks and the passage of the FIX NICS bill, the bipartisan bill intended to fix issues with the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background system. With McConnell’s deferral of taking on gun legislation, now even the passage of the FIX NICs bill is uncertain. Corporate America remains steps ahead of Trump and the legislators, LL Bean will cease selling rifles to anyone under 21, the store doesn’t carry assault style firearms.   Kroger’s Fred Meyer stores which operate in Alaska, Idaho, Oregon and Washington stopped selling assault-style semiautomatic rifles in Oregon, Washington and Idaho several years ago and decided Wednesday to no longer take special orders for those style of guns in Alaska.  They also raised the age limit for gun and ammunition sales to 21.  Unfortunately responsible corporate decisions can have consequences, Delta Airlines, Georgia’s largest private employer is facing retribution for its decision to eliminate travel discounts for NRA members, both state houses passed legislation killing a provision that would have given Delta a sales tax exemption on fuel oil. The airline has at least one other option, New York State’s Governor Cuomo has invited Delta to move their corporate headquarters to New York.

On to the Trade Wars:  Yesterday, much to the surprise of most of his staff and House and Senate leadership, Trump impetuously announced plans to impose tariffs of 25% on imported steel and 10% on imported aluminum. That Trump wanted tariffs was no secret, he has long believed that the imposition of tariffs will level the playing field between the US and countries like China.  His staff and advisors, most notably Economic Advisor Gary Cohn and departed serial wife abuser Rob Porter, had been doing their best to blunt his plans, trying to convince him to take a more nuanced approach to trade. Most economists believe that imposing tariffs simply invites a “tit for tat” trade war and apparently the market agrees, the already volatile Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 500 points immediately after Trump’s announcement.  Speaking for many in the Senate, Senator Sasse, slammed the tariffs decision saying "Let's be clear: The President is proposing a massive tax increase on American families. Protectionism is weak, not strong. You'd expect a policy this bad from a leftist administration, not a supposedly Republican one." Paul Ryan’s office released a typically wishy washy statement saying that "The speaker is hoping the president will consider the unintended consequences of this idea and look at other approaches before moving forward." Reportedly Gary Cohn, who once threatened to leave over Trump’s response to Charlottesville may really jump ship this time.  At this point, only steelworkers and steel companies are happy.  As to China, Trump is right, they don’t play fair, but few believe that the broad imposition of tariffs is the right decision under any circumstances, and especially now, given the need for China’s help with North Korea.  Bad policy aside, the most disturbing thing about Trump’s announcement is that it was likely a misdirected and impulsive response to his frustration about the chaos in the White House, the loss of his closest aides Hopey and Rob, and his growing concerns about the Russia investigation.  Time to hide the football.  

The Revolving Door:  If Gary Cohn jumps ship, he won’t be alone.  Reports of National Security Advisor HR McMaster’s imminent departure are surfacing again with expectations now that he will be out by the end of March. It’s been long known that McMaster and Trump have a rocky relationship but more recently McMaster has gotten on the bad side of Chief of Staff Kelly, Defense Secretary Mattis and Secretary of State Tillerson who oppose McMaster's serious consideration of a preemptive "bloody nose" strike against North Korea. McMaster has indicated that a limited strike may be needed to "compel" North Korea into denuclearizing. Mattis and Tillerson are said to have “warned the Trump administration of its potential implications and the chance that the conflict could spiral out of control after such a move.” At least for now, the White House is denying that McMaster is going anywhere, with Trump, for what it’s worth, calling stories about his imminent departure just more “fake news.”  Though she’s probably in it for the long haul, Ivanka Trump is also facing some hurdles of her own.  Like her husband, her efforts to obtain a permanent security clearance are proving elusive.  FBI counterintelligence professionals are investigating her involvement in the negotiation and financing of Trump International Hotel and Tower in Vancouver as well as her interaction with the Hotel’s developer Joo Tim Kiah,  scion of one of the richest and most powerful Malaysian families. The Trump’s do not own the hotel but do receive substantial royalty and management fees.  Government employment, nepotism, and the ownership of international assets, just some more of those complicated things.      

Russia, Russia, Russia: NBC reports that Mueller is in the process of building a case against the Russians who hacked and leaked the Podesta and DNC emails during the 2016 election. These new charges target a different group of Russian actors than those indicted last month. It’s not clear if any members of Trump’s orbit will be impacted, but if they are expect Trump to go bonkers, pulling another irrational move.  What comes after tariffs?  At the risk of being repetitive it’s time to hide the football!