War Footing

McMaster Out, Bolton In:  Well it’s official, the country is now being run by an unstable reality TV star and a team of likeminded Fox TV commentators.  Yesterday afternoon Trump announced, by tweet of course, that he was sacking his National Security Advisor General HR McMaster, replacing him with occasional Fox pundit John Bolton, who previously served as an undersecretary to George W. Bush and was for a short time his UN ambassador. Bolton, one of the most radically hawkish voices in American foreign policy, is a particularly controversial choice, in most cases war is his preferred solution to difficult international problems. In a February 28 op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal he laid out the “legal case” for preemptively striking North Korea and like Trump he also objects to the Iran nuclear agreement, taking the position that it would be reasonable for the US to pursue a strategy of regime change there, in other words he advocates war against Iran as well. He once called for the invasion of Cuba over a facility that he thought was a chemical warfare plant, it turned out the building in question manufactured run of the mill drugs. He was accused of manipulating US intelligence on weapons of mass destruction prior to the Iraq war and also has been accused of abusive treatment of his subordinates. He’s known to be opinionated and intolerant of opposing views, a particular problem for anyone serving as national security advisor, a role that requires its holder to be the unbiased assimilator of other experts’ views, presenting a balanced assessment of security issues to the president. Although he did serve as UN Ambassador, he assumed the position through a recess appointment because the Bush era Senate refused to confirm his appointment, then because he couldn’t get confirmed he had to step down when the recess period expired. Fortunately for Bolton, national security advisors do not require Senate confirmation.  Trump had considered appointing Bolton as his first Secretary of State, but chose Rex Tillerson instead, not because he had any qualms about Bolton’s suitability but because he doesn’t like moustaches, and Bolton has a particularly scruffy one.  Apparently Trump has gotten over the moustache thing, perhaps because during one of his many Fox appearances Bolton remarked that the whole Russian election interference thing may have just been an Obama administration false flag operation.  Although the move to replace McMaster with Bolton had been expected even Bolton was surprised by the suddenness of Trump’s decision and the announcement of his appointment. Others at the White House were surprised as well and are less than happy about the selection.  Chief of Staff Kelly had been working on plans to announce the dismissal of HUD Secretary Ben Carson and VA Secretary David Shulkin, those plans have been shelved for now to cut back on the appearance of even more White House disarray.  To the extent they do get replaced soon, Kelly may not be around to make the calls, apparently Trump is also considering eliminating him and getting rid of the chief of staff position altogether, because Trump who believes that he is his best communications director, now believes that he no longer needs a chief of staff.

Dowd Out, Fox Lawyers In:  Before he ousted McMaster, Trump parted ways with John Dowd, his chief lawyer for the Russia investigation.  Dowd resigned or was forced out, or both, over disagreements with Trump on how to handle the Special Counsel Mueller investigation.  The NY Times Editorial Board has weighed in, suggesting Dowd resigned because he realized that he had a fool for a client.  Dowd had advised Trump to cooperate with Mueller, to avoid confronting him publicly and to do everything possible to avoid or limit his sit time down with Mueller’s team. Yesterday, after a weekend of ignoring Dowd’s advice by tweet attacking Mueller, Trump responded to a press question by saying that he looks forward to spending quality time with Mueller.  In an effort intended to keep Trump calm, Dowd had kept promising that the investigation was wrapping up soon, a promise that assuaged Trump for a while but lost effectiveness as the once gullible Trump realized that it wasn’t based on reality. Growing increasingly frustrated with the far reaching investigation, Trump has decided that Dowd’s cooperative approach to dealing with Mueller isn’t working and is now changing gears.  His new strategy relies less on mounting a strong legal defense and more on marshalling a combative team of legal pundits to man a war of disinformation intended to marginalize Mueller, possibly in anticipation of firing him and ending the investigation.  To that end, in addition to his recent hiring of Fox legal expert and conspiracy theorist Joseph diGenova, last night Trump added Victoria Toensing, di Genova’s equally conspiracy loving wife, to his team.  For now at least Trump’s legal team is being headed by Jay Sekulow, who is known less for his legal acumen and more for his frequent appearances on Fox and the Christian Broadcasting network. It’s also been reported that Marc Kasowitz, who never really left the Trump orbit, may be assuming more Russia related responsibilities despite the fact that his dicey past makes it impossible for him to get a security clearance. Ty Cobb is still on board but he’s been heard talking about jumping ship so it’s not clear that he will remain much longer. Trump has sought out one or more “real” lawyers to supplement his questionable team but at least so far none of those contacted have been willing to step up to the plate.  His team has called experienced white collar lawyers from four top firms including Brendan Sullivan of Williams & Connolly, Ted Olson of Gibson, Dunn, Paul Clement and Mark Filip of Kirkland & Ellis and Robert Giuffra of  Sullivan & Cromwell. Citing existing commitments and conflicts, all have turned down the request to represent Trump, they are concerned about possible damage to their firms’ reputations and as one lawyer is reported to have said about Trump because “the guy won’t pay and he won’t listen.”     

Market Tanking Tariffs:  Trump opened another front in his trade war yesterday, taking on China for that country’s unfair seizure of US intellectual property.  He’s directed his trade representative to levy tariffs on about $50 billion of Chinese imports.  Already reeling from the impact of Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica problem and coming to terms with another interest rate hike, the Dow Jones average dropped by 724 points over fears that an escalating trade war will raise costs and impact profits, knocking out economic gains and offsetting consumers’ meager tax savings. To that end, last night China announced  plans to hit back, targeting Trump’s base by levying tariffs on $3 billion of US agricultural exports from farm belt states.  At the same time that he was hammering China with more sanctions, Trump let up on a number of US allies, giving Argentina, Australia, Brazil, the European Union and South Korea a temporary exemption from the recently imposed steel and aluminum tariffs. Mexico and Canada have already received a similar “temporary” exemption.  Trump is enamored of tariffs but can’t be all that happy about the market’s reaction.  And more importantly, his donor class has got to be growing increasingly distressed. Somewhere former economic advisor Gary Cohn, who worked for the administration long enough to shelter all of his Goldman Sachs related capital gains from taxes, is shaking his head and saying I told you so.

Russia, Russia, Russia:  The House Intelligence Committee, or at least the Republicans on the Committee, formally closed their investigation into Russian election interference yesterday by releasing their disingenuous final report.  They pretty much concluded that all of the Trump team interactions with nefarious Russians and people from WikiLeaks were unfortunate and ill-advised but that none of them were indicative of collusion. They have no interest in calling anyone in to further explore the Cambridge Analytica fiasco, nor are they interested in pursuing any financial irregularities or subpoenaing any of the Trump aides who refused to cooperate.  They did however recommend rooting out leaks within the intelligence agencies through the aggressive use of polygraph tests because leaks rather than Russian interference and Trump team collusion is the real problem.  Notwithstanding the House report, the Senate Intelligence Committee remains hard at work and more importantly so is Mueller. A team of FBI agents working on Mueller’s Russia investigation have now identified Guccifer 2.0, the hacker who stole the DNC emails in the first place, he is an officer in the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence directorate.  By failing to turn on his virtual programming network (VPN) he left an incriminating clue online, revealing his real and highly traceable internet address.  The identification of the GRU officer brings the investigation closer to the Kremlin and to Trump or at least to Trump’s long term political advisor Roger Stone who previously admitted to communicating with Guccifer 2.0 over twitter’s direct messaging service.  Mueller’s progress is admirable but it would be best if he and his team would speed things up.  There’s a “pink” tweet out there with his name on it and it’s only a matter of time before an increasingly agitated and emboldened Trump sends it his way.