Just Another Quiet Day

Cabinet Shuffle: March of 2018 will not go down as Rex Tillerson’s favorite month.  Fresh off of a week at home mourning the loss of his father, he traveled to Africa on an apology tour to mend fences in the countries that Trump had earlier called the world’s sh-tholes.  While on the road, he learned second hand that Trump had accepted an invitation, to meet with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, he then spent hours on the phone trying to get himself back into the Korea preparation loop, only to get a call from Chief of Staff Kelly warning him that his days at State were numbered, a warning that he had heard so many times before that he didn’t take it all that seriously.  It turns out that Tillerson misunderstood Kelly’s warning, Trump was serious, so serious that despite Kelly’s insistence that he hold off firing Tillerson until he could do it in person, he lost control and went ahead and fired Tillerson via tweet. Then when Steve Goldstein, Tillerson’s Undersecretary of State, refused to stick with a whitewashed version of events, one that claimed that Tillerson had been formally advised of his dismissal days earlier, Trump had Goldstein fired too. Trump has nominated Mike Pompeo, the head of the CIA to serve as his new Secretary of State.  Yesterday, on his way to California to view Mexico border wall prototypes, Trump praised Tillerson for his service but said that given the number of their policy disagreements, it was time for Tillerson to go back home to his ranch, where he “will be much happier.”  Trump added that he really likes Pompeo, which is his way of saying that Pompeo agrees with him on almost everything and won’t embarrass him by calling him a moron, or at least won’t get caught out in public for doing so.  Pompeo appears to be the loyalist Trump wants, though he’s acknowledged Russian election meddling, he also testified, erroneously, that the CIA had concluded that the meddling had not impacted the election, an assertion that a CIA spokesperson later walked back. As CIA head, he’s been delivering Trump’s daily security briefing verbally, necessary because Trump finds reading challenging. It’s been reported that since Trump doesn’t like to hear much about Russia, the cooperative Pompeo leaves that part out of the oral briefing.  Pompeo shares Trump’s hawkish views and is supportive of Trump’s disdain for the Iran nuclear agreement. With his appointment, the odds of Trump pulling the US out of the agreement on its next reconfirmation date have now risen dramatically, a curious move to take when trying to convince North Korea to denuclearize.  As to Tillerson, he held a news conference yesterday, notable because through most of his tenure he’s shied from the press.  He thanked his State Department colleagues for their dedication and expressed his appreciation for their work. Though he didn’t have much to say about Trump, he did send him a veiled message by talking about the importance of honesty, respect and diplomacy, then he slammed the Russians for their increasingly aggressive policies, especially significant because Tillerson had been a Putin enthusiast. Clearly, he’s seen a few things that have changed his views about his former BFF.  Few at the State Department will miss Tillerson, they hold him responsible for failing to adequately defend their mission and for failing to fill senior appointments.  Only time will tell if Pompeo is any more appreciative of the department’s value.  As to the rest of the Cabinet, Trump said that he is close to having the cabinet that he wants, leaving the distinct impression that he will soon be making more changes.  Expectations are that others on the chopping block include National Security Advisor HR McMaster and David Shulkin, the embattled chief of the VA, who may or may not be replaced by current Energy Secretary Rick Perry which of course would leave Trump with a hole at Energy.  And then there is Attorney General Sessions, Trump’s dissatisfaction with his recusal from the Russia investigation gnaws away at his gut every night. So far Trump has been advised to leave Sessions alone so as not to cause an open revolt over concerns that Special Counsel Mueller would be next but who knows, Trump seems to be feeling very emboldened these days.            

Other Moves:  Trump also announced plans to appoint Gina Haspel as the next director of the CIA. Haspel, a veteran clandestine officer, would be the first female director of the CIA.  While that would be notable, her confirmation is far from a done deal.  Following 9-11 Haspel ran a CIA facility in Thailand where she oversaw a CIA “rendition, detention, and interrogation” facility, she was also involved in the destruction of the tapes and records that documented the facilities “activities.” Among other things those activities included a number of now outlawed techniques including water boarding. Not only was the torture heinous but it didn’t work, nothing valuable was obtained though a strong argument can be made that from a moral perspective a lot was lost.  Trump’s called for a return to water boarding during the campaign didn’t go over all that well with most members of Congress and though it’s unlikely that he chose Haspel for her torture expertise, it’s hard to forget either his call for torture or her willingness to so efficiently follow those Bush era orders.  Though its not clear that Senator McCain will be back in Washington for her confirmation hearing, he has already weighed in on Haspel’s nomination, calling her out for being involved in “one of darkest chapters in American history” and saying that she must “explain her stance on torture.”  The New York Times editorial board agrees with McCain and has called for Haspel to be held up unless she “forcefully renounces the use of torture” during her confirmation hearing.  While all eyes were focused on the Tillerson firing and the Pompeo shift, Trump aide John McEntee was frog marched out of the White House yesterday. McEntee, a Rob Porter doppelganger who served as Trump’s body man, flunked his security review after certain of his financial improprieties were discovered by the FBI.  Reports are that he has a serious online gambling problem.  Despite the fact that McEntee was hustled out so fast that he wasn’t even allowed to retrieve his jacket, he’s already landed in a new position.  He has been hired by Trump’s data guru Brad Parscale, who was recently appointed head of Trump’s 2020 campaign team. Trump, who knows a thing or two about gambling and failed casinos isn’t all that concerned about McEntee’s problem.       

The March Lamb:  Shortly before 5 AM this morning NBC declared Democratic candidate Conor Lamb the winner in the very close Pennsylvania 18 special election. A few military absentee ballots remain uncounted, but expectations are that Lamb’s just under 700 vote margin will hold. His victory, to the extent that it withstands a recount if one even occurs, is fairly remarkable, Trump won the district by over 20 points and Mitt Romney won it by 17 points.  Republicans will argue that their candidate, Rick Saccone was exceptionally weak and that the Democrats will have a hard time finding more centrist, former marine, “model” candidates like Lamb, but don’t be fooled, they are concerned about what this portends for the midterms. If the Democrats can overcome a 20 point gap here, imagine the possibility in those districts where they lost by far less, then add on the districts where Hillary won, the Republicans should be concerned. Is this the beginning of a Democratic stampede, who knows?  Is the Trump magic wearing thin, maybe.  

Some Other Stuff:  Although he hates to say anything bad about the Russians, after what must have been a disturbing and convincing call with Prime Minister Theresa May, Trump pledged “solidarity” with Britain over the Salisbury spy poisoning and demanded “unambiguous answers” from Russia over its involvement. Republican Congressman Trey Gowdy, a senior member of the House Intelligence Committee, actually questioned some of the conclusions of his more complicit Republican colleagues by saying that he believes that Russia's interference in the 2016 presidential election was motivated at least in part "by a desire" to hurt Hillary Clinton's candidacy.  Also speaking the truth, James Schwab, a San Francisco based US Immigration and Enforcement spokesman resigned rather than standby false claims made by Attorney General Sessions that a warning by Oakland’s mayor to undocumented immigrants of an imminent raid had allowed 800 criminals to escape capture. He said he just couldn’t “deflect” anymore.