Korean Speakers, To the Front of the Line!

Tariffs Are Coming, Tariffs are Coming:  As of yesterday, Trump was planning to announce his precious steel and aluminum tariffs this afternoon, however like many other things, announcing tariffs is complicated, so there is a chance that the formal announcement gets deferred while the various legal beagles and number crunchers complete the legally required analyses and paperwork. Despite earlier assertions that no countries would be exempt from the tariffs, it is now expected that Mexico and Canada, the largest exporter of steel and aluminum to the US, will be “temporarily” exempted subject to the “successful” completion of NAFTA negotiations.  Trump is facing a lot of pressure from his Republican allies in Congress, so its likely that at the end of the day a number of other countries will also receive exemptions.  It’s not clear whether Australia will be one of those countries, an omission that would be particularly troubling for Prime Minister Turnball since Trump promised him that Australia wouldn’t be subject to any new US tariffs during his Washington visit. Taking a page from the Trump and Russia playbook, the European Union is prepared to respond with a set of retaliatory tariffs primarily targeting products from US swing states like Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina and Kentucky, not a swing state but the home of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.                

The Gun Front:  Congress still hasn’t passed or even voted on any new gun legislation but the Parkland students efforts haven’t been totally ignored.  Yesterday the Florida legislature passed some gun control measures, sending them on to Governor Scott for his signature.  Although the Florida legislation mostly addressed “low hanging fruit,” it represents a partial success for the students. The legislation raises the minimum age for all gun purchases to 21 from 18, bans bump stocks, and creates a three day waiting period for gun purchasers although certain individuals including policy officers, members of the military and licensed hunters and licenses concealed weapon carriers would be exempt from the requirement. In addition to providing more mental health funding and making it easier for the police to temporarily confiscate guns from some psychiatric patients, the legislation provides for the arming of school employees, a  provision popular with the NRA and Trump who believe more guns are the best solution for everything and that the chief reason for school shootings is that so many schools are designated as gun free zones.  Unfortunately, the bill doesn’t ban assault weapons, doesn’t suspend AR-15 sales, doesn’t ban high-capacity magazines and doesn’t strengthen background checks. In summary, the legislation is better than nothing but should have been much more inclusive.

Russia, Russia, Russia:  According to a number of reports, Special Counsel Mueller has now concluded that the purpose of the meeting in the Seychelles, the one between Erik Prince, and a number of Emirati officials and a Putin crony, was to set up a back channel communication network between Trump and the Kremlin.  It’s thought that Mueller reached this conclusion with the help of George Nader, the Lebanese advisor to the UAE, who is now the newest member of Team Mueller. The Seychelle meeting took place in January 2017, just days before Trump’s inauguration, so it’s hard to understand why he felt he needed a back channel unless of course he was so distrustful of the “deep state” intelligence services and/or planned to have conversations with his buddy Putin about things like sanctions relief or other activities, and by other activities think along the lines of handing over the rest of Ukraine or ceding control of Syria rather than planning tee off times on one or more Trump golf courses.  Also on the Russian front, Trump has been engaging in curious conversations with a few current and former members of the White House staff, asking them about their Mueller interviews.  At least two of them, former Chief of Staff Priebus and current White House Counsel McGahn are represented by the same lawyer which is why we know about the conversations.  To protect his clients their lawyer reported Trump’s inquiries back to Mueller.  Apparently Trump was so upset when he read news accounts that White House Counsel McGahn had told Mueller that he had been directed by Trump to arrange for Mueller’s firing, that Trump had serial wife abuser Rob Porter, relay the message that McGahn would be fired if he didn’t call the press and “correct” the assertion that Trump had directed him to set Mueller’s firing in motion.  Trump then confronted McGahn directly, asserting that he had never pushed him to organize Mueller’s firing.  McGahn refused to recant the statement, reminding Trump that, actually, he had.   Trump’s conversations with his staff about their Mueller meetings are probably not illegal but they are really stupid and go against his legal team’s advice but then again rabble rousing, election savant Trump is kind of stupid and he generally doesn’t listen to advice.      

The Stormy Chronicles:  Things have grown increasingly bizarre on the Stormy Daniels front.  Though press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders continues to deny that Trump ever had an affair with the adult film star, she knows a lot about the nondisclosure agreement between Stormy and Trump, the one that was negotiated and paid for by Trump’s lawyer/fixer Michael Cohen.  During yesterday’s press conference she revealed that lawyers representing Cohen and presumably Trump had obtained a ruling from a California arbitrator that effectively silences Stormy, preventing her from breaking the nondisclosure agreement and talking about her “intimate” relationship with Trump.  Although the original nondisclosure agreement provides for any disputes between the parties to be settled by arbitration, Stormy and her lawyer were unaware of the recent proceeding and are now trying to figure out how to get around it.  In the meantime, Common Cause has filed a campaign finance complaint alleging that the $130,000 payoff made by Cohen to Stormy amounts to an undeclared in-kind donation to Trump’s presidential campaign. Elsewhere another set of determined legal watchdogs are alleging legal misconduct by Cohen that might lead to his disbarment.    

The Koreans are Coming Too:  South Korean is sending a delegation to meet with Trump to talk about North Korea.  The South Koreans are carrying a message from North Korea detailing Kim Jung Un’s willingness, or alleged willingness, to talk about reducing regional tensions including his offer to maybe, kind of freeze his nuclear ambitions.  To the extent that the North Koreans are serious this is a good thing.  It would be even better if we had an Ambassador, someone other than Ivanka, and if Joseph Yun, the US special representative to North Korea hadn’t just quit.  Now, in addition to appointing a new economic advisor to replace the departing Gary Cohn, Trump is scurrying to find someone to assume responsibility for Korea talks.  Wonder if any of the ten super qualified people for every open White House position, the ones that Trump mentioned were lined up out on Pennsylvania Avenue seeking to join his team, speak Korean?